The Future of the Chinese Steel Industry
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1 The Future of the Chinese Steel Industry Century Iron Ore Conference October 9, 2013 Toronto, Ontario 1
2 The Future of the Chinese Steel Industry Delin Huang Deputy General Manager, WISCO Senior engineer with extensive experience in fisheries, water conservancy, hydropower engineering Member of Standing Committee of CPC, WISCO Director of Migrant Relocation & Planning, Three Gorges Office of State Council (2006) Director of Institute of Hydroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources Represented today by Daniel Zhu Daniel Zhu PhD President & CEO, WISCO Canada Director, Executive Vice President of Bloom Lake General Partner Limited Director of Wugang Australia Resources Investment Co. Ltd Standing Director of China Engineering Blasting Association President of Institute of Lithomechanics & Engineering of WISCO Professor of Wuhan University of Science and Technology. Managed more than 150 projects (Mines, Pellet Plants, etc.) 2
3 (in 10,000 tonnes) Century Iron Ore Conference Development history of the Chinese steel industry China s crude steel production (10,000 tonnes) Growth rate (%) Share in the world (%) 3
4 2. Market distribution of major steel companies in China Baosteel WISCO Maanshan Steel Shoutang Steel Shandong Steel 4
5 Domestic steel demand Domestic Crude Steel Production Capacity & Investment Growth since Capacity Growth Capacity Investment Growth Rate
6 Domestic steel demand Industry Chain Model of the Steel Industry Over 50% of iron ore is imported; mainly seaborne trading; became involved in pricing negotiations; waste collection to make up for raw materials Upstream ore and waste collection industries Continuously growing steel production volume; accelerating elimination of backward production capacity; technological upgrading of steel products; diversified products from large companies Steel making and processing industries Increasing steel demand from construction industry; rapidly developing shipbuilding industry; Growing steel consumption from automobile industry; demand for special steel increases Downstream steel using industries 6
7 Domestic steel demand Infrastructure, 25% Domestic steel demand of the lower-stream industries Others (transportation, ship building, energy), 25% Automobiles, 3% Real Estate Construction, 25% Machinery, 16% Household Electronic Appliances, 6% 7
8 Domestic steel demand A forecast of the domestic industrialization and urbanization GDP per-capita (USD in 2005) Industry Structure (First/Second/ Third) Urbanization Rate (%) 11.3/48.6/ /49.2/ /47.6/ /46.2/
9 China s Steel Consumption Volume (100,000,000 tonnes) Century Iron Ore Conference 2013 Domestic steel demand Actual curve factoring in technological improvement Model Value of of Steel Consumption (100,000,000 tonnes) Advanced steel consumption boosted by government Improvement of technologies and advanced steel consumption has lowered the peak consumption value 9 Model Value of China s Steel Consumption during
10 Steel production and development of steel companies Crude Steel Production Forecast (in million tonnes) % in the World China % 46% India % 6% Other Asian Countries % 13% Europe % 12% CIS % 8% North America South America % 7% % 3% Africa % 1% Middle East % 2% Oceania % 1% 10 World 1,147 1,251 1,351 1,329 1,211 1,414 1,463 1,511 1,575 1,629 1, % 100%
11 (100 Mt/year) Century Iron Ore Conference 2013 Steel production and development of steel companies Global Crude Steel Production ( ) and Forecast ( ) India China World w/o China 11
12 Steel production and development of steel companies Forecast of China s Crude Steel Production Volume & Concentration Crude Steel Production Volume (E) 2020(E ) China s domestic total Top-10 steel companies 2.47(43.5% ) 4.08(60%) (70%) Bottom 6 of the top-10 companies 1.08 (Averagely 18 Mt) 1.5 (Averagely 25 Mt) 1.8 (Averagely 30 Mt) Top 4 of the top-10 companies 1.39 (Averagely Mt) 2.58 (Averagely Mt) (Averagely Mt) 12
13 4. Iron ore demand analysis Demand for iron ore - Global and China China s Production Volumes of Crude Steel, Pig Iron V.S. Imorted Iron Ore ( ) (in 10,000 tonnes) Year Crude Steel Production Pig Iron Production Imported Iron Ore
14 4. Iron ore demand analysis Demand for iron ore - Global and China China s imported iron ore volume (in 10,000 tonnes) Proportion in global iron ore production volume (%) Proportion in global iron ore trading volume (%) 14
15 (USD/tonne) Century Iron Ore Conference Iron ore demand analysis Iron ore market prices Average Price of Iron Ore Imported to China (USD/tonne) 15
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