Predicting Online Buzz and Audience The Next Step in New Market Research

Transcription

1 Predicting Online Buzz and Audience The Next Step in New Market Research Summary Introduction... 2 Tragic events provoke rapid spikes in online comments before fading into the distance... 3 Online audiences for planned political events are easily predictable... 5 Sport and television events hold audiences captive... 7 Conclusion

2 Introduction With the rise of the Internet, news coverage and accessibility have greatly increased. With the number of sites housing printed publications, news agencies, pure players, and blogs, etc., the number of articles covering current events continues to grow and to fuel the popular Internet phenomenon known as buzz. Social media has a crucial role in this phenomenon; nearly one third of news publications comes from blogs. Synthesio teamed with Bouygues e-lab1 to study and model current event buzz levels on the web and the way it spreads across media sites, blogs, and video-sharing platforms. The study also looked at how the buzz can be broken down among the various sites, and at what the publishing cycles look like for certain events. Is it possible to analyze the impact of global events on the publication of online news articles, and thus indirectly on the audience of websites? Media channels are rapidly changing, but we can measure media as well as the way consumers are using media to adapt. Number of publications May Media publications typically have regular patterns. The graph below shows the number of media publications during May of 21, the period we based our study upon. Typical news outlets follow this pattern, posting far less on the weekend than during the week. 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% News articles Videos Blog posts 2% 1% % Synthesio and Bouygues e-lab based this study upon sources that relay news first-hand: media news stories, videos, and blog posts, broken down along the percentages above. The sources are all French language sources, meaning France, Belgium, Canada, etc. 2

3 Tragic events provoke rapid spikes in online comments before fading into the distance The traces of a celebrity death are visible for up to one month Celebrity deaths nowadays grab people s attention for one reason or another, but are then quickly forgotten as people move onto new news. Michael Jackson s death was one of the most marked in recent history, shutting down both Facebook and Twitter as millions of comments poured onto the Internet, and one that attracted an inordinate amount of media attention. Even Jackson s Wikipedia page was updated before some major media were able to report on the event. A typical curve is represented to the right, with an example given from the death of Mano Solo in January of 21. With all of this information pouring out, it must be asked who benefits from this information outpour? Media outlets race to be the first to report a celebrity death, yet there can be large gaps of lag time like there was in the case of Michael Jackson s death, between an announcement from TMZ and Twitter and those from the Huffington Post and the New York Times 1. This phenomenon highlights the struggle faced by traditional media today to maintain an exclusive hold on current events. The Death of Mano Solo /1/21 1/2/21 1/3/21 1/4/21 1/5/21 Even the most destructive natural disasters leave their traces online for only 1 or 2 months The 21 earthquake in Haïti was one of the first in recent years to bring attention to the impact on social media. There was an outpour of online comments similar to other natural disasters tested including the BP oil spill crisis and the volcanic explosion of Eyjafjöll in Iceland in 21 (see graph at right). When one of the largest recorded tsunamis in history hit Japan s coast on March 11, 211 following an 8.9 magnitude earthquake, the number of tweets alone exceeded 1,2 per minute 2. Just on blogs, forums, and news sites alone, there were over 63, mentions of Japan online on March 11th. Over the past month March-April 211, there has been a total of 1,655,561 comments from these sites. On Twitter, hashtags (key words tagged with a pound sign that can then be used to search for other tweets including the same word) #japan, #tsunami, #prayforjapan and others almost immediately became trending topics. 1 Michael Jackson s death and its lessons for online journalists covering breaking news 2 Twitter Reacts To Massive Quake, Tsunami In Japan 3 3

4 Google set up a Person Finder web app 3 to allow families and victims to reunite, and as expected, Yahoo announced more than 1 million clicks per hour to its media coverage of the tsunami, reporting traffic five times higher than usual throughout the day. The conversations around Japan are still within the 1-2 month time range during which comments online (and thus online audiences looking for this information) stagnate and then fall off. Haiti Earthquake /1/21 1/2/21 1/3/21 1/4/21 1/5/21 1/6/21 4 P. Cattin, R. Festa, A. Le Diberder, A Model for Forecasting the Audience of TV Programs. Worldwide Electronic and Broadcasting Audience Research Symposium 4

5 Online audiences and buzz for planned political events are easily predictable Audience levels for an election take off 3 months prior Measuring captive audiences is nothing new for elections, but now that audiences are increasingly watching TV online or surfing the web while watching TV, it is necessary to know when and where these audiences are captive. The number of studies predicting audience levels (online or on TV) for an election is limited, as most studies focus on panel studies 4, and predictions are often based on past numbers. While the accompanying graphs are based on French presidential elections and thus a French electoral time frame, it has become evident that online audiences are active at a given time before a political event, rise at predictable moments, and quickly fall off afterwards. In the case of the events studied, Internet buzz took off 3 months prior to elections, peaked during elections, and rather quickly died off afterwards. It should be stressed that these audience levels are for planned political events, with an emphasis on elections. In the case of recent uprisings in the Middle East, events are less stable and therefore more difficult to predict. Regional Elections /1/21 1/2/21 1/3/21 1/4/21 1/5/21 1/6/21 Daily articles during strikes draw a regular audience throughout Online content and its audience during strikes are interesting events to analyze as there is a regular publication of articles throughout the strike with spikes occurring at predictable moments. Although this example does not apply to all countries, it is interesting to note moments at which certain country audiences are captive on a regular basis. We can look at the example of a strike in France during the spring of 21. Although there were two days that saw extremely high levels of online buzz, publications were consistent throughout the entire period. This type of event is key for not only media outlets to understand but also companies wishing to protect their reputations, online or elsewhere. Airline and other travel companies know the weight that strikes can have on their online and offline reputations. Negative media on a regular basis, along with the comments that accompany them, are common fare. Just last fall, London tube strikes in October and November trended on Twitter, and online comments followed the pattern observed by Synthesio and Bouygues e-lab. Two phenomena are particular to this type of event: the race between media sites and citizen journalists to be the first to deliver the news, and crowdsourcing in journalism. Citizen journalists can be anyone that has a smartphone and an Internet connection at his/her disposal, contributing to online buzz and alerting fellow travelers of the strike situation. There are over 1, blog mentions alone for London tube strike and 321 videos on YouTube. 5

6 Transport Strike /1/21 1/2/21 1/3/21 1/4/21 1/5/21 1/6/21 6

7 Sport and television events hold audience captive Athletic events hold audiences captive throughout the event An analysis of several athletic events, including the Giro d Italia (Tour of Italy), the 21 World Cup, Roland Garros, and the Vancouver Olympic Games, showed that online buzz on blogs, forums, and news sites rises just before the event, is steady throughout, and drops off sharply after the event. In terms of sponsorship and advertising, this is an interesting phenomenon to understand. Content surrounding these events is only present directly before the event, therefore narrowing while defining the time period during which audiences are reading about it. Certain brands certainly took advantage of specific matches during the World Cup for launching carefully crafted ads, such as Adidas s Star Wars-themed ad featuring David Beckham, Franz Beckenbauer, Snoop Dogg, and others, launching the campaign online as well. Media outlets also took advantage of a TV-Internet mix by launching proprietary viewers to draw fans: BBC s iplayer, and ITV Player s online services, for example 6. The Giro d Italia (Tour of Italy) /1/21 1/2/21 1/3/21 1/4/21 1/5/21 1/6/21 Buzz around reality TV shows is similar, with maximum communication at the beginning and end Finally, reality TV shows are another spectrum that is possible to predict, as shown by the graph to the right. Studies carried out by Synthesio and Bouygues e-lab show that online buzz peaks at the beginning and end of a show, with regular online publications throughout. This sample graph was taken from the evaluation of several reality TV shows including a show called Koh Lanta, pictured below. Not only are reality shows less expensive to produce than sitcoms, their audiences are easier to predict as they run during a set, predictable time period. Brands are cashing in on these captive audiences not only via directed advertising but also via product placement and partnership programs. For the next episode of Big Brother, for example, none other than Coca Cola will be amplifying the show, i.e. sponsoring 7. 5 World Cup 21: millions of women will watch - but the ads will aim at men Media guardian.co.uk 6 Coca Cola to sponsor Big Brother amplified 7

8 Koh Lanta Reality TV Show /3/21 7/4/21 7/5/21 8

9 Conclusion An analysis of online buzz and its related predictions of online audiences is a study that is highly related to the geographical region/country that is being studied. French data was used in the initial study carried out by Synthesio and Bouygues e-lab, but other countries information could surely be analyzed in a similar manner. There are opportunities for media outlets and brands in various sectors that can predict the amplification of captive audiences around a certain topic and predictable dates. As more marketing dollars move to the Internet, predicting where audiences will be can also help advertisers determine where to best spend their budgets. About Synthesio Synthesio is a global, multi-lingual Social Media Monitoring and research company, utilizing a powerful hybrid of tech and human monitoring services to help Brands and Agencies collect and analyze consumer conversations online. The result is actionable analytics and insights that provide an accurate snapshot of a brand and help answer the ultimate questions how are we really doing right now, and how can we make it better. Founded in 26, the company has grown to include analysts who provide native-language monitoring and analytic services in over 3 lanuages worldwide. Brands such as Toyota, Microsoft, Sanofi, Accor, Orange and many other well-known companies turn to Synthesio for the data they need to engage with their markets, anticipate and prepare for emerging crisis situations, and prepare for new product or new campaign launches. 9