National Drought Management Authority TAITA TAVETA COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR FEBRUARY 2019

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1 National Drought Management Authority TAITA TAVETA COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR FEBRUARY 2019 FEBRUARY 2019 EW PHASE Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Biophysical Indicators Light rains were recorded in the month under review. The rains were above normal (monthly anomaly was 72%) The off season light rains were realized mainly in the highlands of the county. (Voi in lowlands recorded 58.2 mm) The county vegetation greenness condition was within the normal range (VCI 40) except Taveta Sub County which exhibited moderate vegetation greenness deficit (VCI) Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production Indicators Most farmers were busy harvesting maize while a few were harvesting green grams. Livestock body condition was good for all species. Milk production per HH per day was above normal. Access Indicators Terms of Trade were favourable and above the normal range. Milk consumption per HH per day was above normal. Return distances to water sources were within the normal range. Distances to water sources from grazing areas were below the long term average. Utilization Indicators The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition remained within the long term average an implication of improved Seasonal Calendar Short rains harvests Increased HH Food Stocks Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Land preparation Planting/Weeding Long rains High Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Flush floods - Taveta Early Warning Phase Classification Livelihood Zone Phase Trend Mixed Farming: Food Crops/ Livestock Mixed Farming: Food Crops/ Horticulture/Dairy Long rains harvests Increased HH Food Stocks A long dry spell Land preparation Kidding (Sept) Normal Normal Short rains Planting/weeding Flush floods - Taveta Deteriorating Stable Mixed Farming: Irrigated Cropping/ Normal Stable Livestock/Food Crops National Park Normal Stable County Normal Stable Biophysical Indicators Value Normal Range/ Value Rainfall 3 Months Anomaly VCI-3Month Production indicators Value Normal Crop Condition (maize) Harvesting Good Livestock Body Condition for cattle Good Good Milk Production per HH/ day Litres Livestock Migration Pattern Normal No Migration Access Indicators Value Normal Terms of Trade (Casual labour Vs maize prices) Milk Consumption per HH/ day Litres Return HHs distance to water sources Water source return distance from grazing areas Km Km Cost of water (20 litres) 3.00 < Kshs 5.00 Utilization indicators Value Normal Nutrition Status, MUAC (% at risk of malnutrition) 1.1 <3.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1

2 1. CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE The county recorded light rains in the month under review. Mwarungu station located in the highlands recorded three wet days during the third week of the month totalling 24.2 mm while Voi and Mwachawaza station located in the lowlands recording 58.2 and 28.4 mm in one and two days respectively during the same week. 1.2 AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION According to WFP-VAM, Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data (CHIRPS) indicated a one month s rainfall anomaly of 72 percent. The precipitation was spread across the month and recorded at 9 mm. The rainfall amounts were below the long term averages by 44.7 percent. 2

3 2. IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) The vegetation greeness condition in the county was normal as depicted by a 3-month vegetation condition index (3m-VCI) value of except in Taveta Sub county which had moderate vegetation greenness (3M- VCI of 34.06) compared to normal as indicated in the figure below. The prevailing situation is attributed to light showers that were intermettently reported in various parts of the county during the month Pasture From the sampled communities 57, 38 and five percent reported pasture condition to have been good, fair and poor respectively. The situation is generally normal expect in Parts of Taveta sub county (Challa and Eldoro) where it was below normal. Relative to the previous month the situation has deteriorated as indicated by a 19 percent increase in number of households reporting fair pasture condition and stability in the proportion that reported poor pasture condition. The decline was mainly attributed to the prevailing high temperatures and progression of the dry spell. The available pasture is expected to last two months up to the end of April and the main constraint to access to pasture was lack of water in Challa, Eldoro and Mwakajo areas. though in sections of Taveta Sub County (Challa and Mboghoni Wards) pasture is depleted Pasture variation by livelihood zone indicated the situation was better In the mixed farming: food crops/ horticulture & dairy compared to mixed farming; food crops/livestock livelihood zone Browse From community interviews 52.4 and 47.6 percent of the respondents reported browse situation to have been good and fair respectively. Compared to the previous month, the browse situation slightly declined as reflected by the drop in the number of respondents reporting good vegetation condition by 28.6 percent. Browse condition was normal for this time of the year and estimated to last for approximately three months in the mixed farming: food crops/ livestock livelihood zone and four months in the mixed farming: horticulture/ dairy livelihood zone. Browse 3

4 condition was fair in the mixed farming: irrigated cropping/ livestock livelihood zone and expected to last until onset of long rains. 2.2 WATER RESOURCE Sources The three main sources of water in use by both households and livestock were rivers, springs and boreholes and were relied upon by 31.4, 17.1 and 17.1 percent of the households respectively. Other sources included boreholes and Pans and Dams The sources remained the same compared to the previous month though the percentage of households that relied on rivers as their main source of water decreased by twelve percent. The available water is expected to last for three months in the mixed farming: horticulture/ dairy livelihood zone, two months for the mixed farming: food crop/ livestock livelihood zone and last until onset of long rains in the mixed farming: irrigated cropping/ livestock livelihood zone Household Access and Utilization of Water The average return distance from households to main water sources was 2.5 km reflecting a slight increase of 0.2 km from the previous month and above long term average by four percent. The increase in distance was attributed to drying up of open water sources mainly in the mixed farming: food crop/ livestock livelihood zone and breakdown of some boreholes. n=210hhs Water consumption per person per day was at 22, 18 and 15 litres while in mixed farming: horticulture/ dairy livelihood zone, mixed farming: irrigated cropping/ livestock livelihood zone and mixed farming: food crops/ livestock livelihood zone respectively. 4

5 Households purchasing water was at 76 percent and price per 20 litre Jerry can was normal and ranged between Ksh. 2-5 at source across all livelihood zones and Kshs from vendors in Mata, Chunga Unga, Alia, Manoa, Mwakitau, Ngolia and Ngambenyi. The cost of transportation depended on distance and the highest was recorded in Mwakitau of Kshs 30 following breakdown of the main water supply in Bura (Nyangoro borehole). An estimated 26 percent of the population treated water before drinking. Out of these 28 and 72 percent practised boiling and use of water chemicals respectively. Relative percentage for water treatment before drinking was; Food crop/ livestock 12%, Horticulture/ dairy 17% and irrigated cropping/ livestock 100% Livestock Trekking Distance to Water Sources from Grazing Areas Return distance to water source from grazing areas increased to 4.0 km from 3.6 km posted in the previous month and was below long term average by 11.1 percent as indicated in the graph below. Slight increment in return distance to water was reported in mixed farming; food crop & livestock and mixed farming; irrigation and livestock as result of fencing of individual rangelands and parks that had direct routes to water sources. The available water sources in both zones are expected to last for two months. In mixed farming: food crops/ livestock livelihood zone, frequency of watering was maintained at once per day for cattle and goats compared to the previous month. In the mixed farming: horticulture/ dairy livelihood zone watering for cattle and sheep was twice a day while in the mixed farming: irrigated cropping/ livestock livelihood zone watering reduced to five times in seven days due to increased distances. n=21key Informants 3. PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION Livestock Body Condition 5

6 The livestock body condition for all species was good and normal across the county except in parts of mixed farming: irrigation/ livestock livelihood zone where cattle were reported to be in fair condition attributed to poor pasture condition plus fenced off rangelands by owners in Taveta Sub County that herders used to rely on. The fence has also blocked short routes to access water in Lake Jipe further aggravating the situation. Livestock body condition improved compared to the previous month due to available pasture and browse. Slight deterioration in body condition is likely to be witnessed in milking herds in mixed farming; irrigation and livestock zone Livestock Diseases Confirmed cases foot and mouth disease (FMD) were reported in mixed farming: food crop/ Livestock livelihood zone of Mwatate sub-county especially in ranches (Mramba, Lualenyi ranches) where vaccination and treatment plus movement restriction measures have been put in place to contain spread. Deaths of poultry due to New castle disease were reported in Mboghoni, Ngolia and Kasigau Wards at 65, 23 and 13 percent respectively Milk Production The average milk production per household per day was at 3.4 litres as posted in the previous month and was mainly from cattle and goats. This was mainly attributed to availability and access to fodder and water in mixed farming: horticulture/ dairy and mixed farming: food crop / livestock livelihood zones. n=210 HHs Milk production for the month was above long term average by 17 percent. Relatively, quantity of milk produced per household per day was high in the mixed farming: horticulture/ dairy livelihood zone at 4.9 litres, in the mixed farming: irrigated cropping/ livestock livelihood zone at 3.8 litres and lowest in the mixed farming: food crop / livestock livelihood zone milk production at 1.5 litres. 6

7 In addition to the availability and access to fodder and water, in the mixed farming: horticulture/ dairy livelihood zone, livestock kept is of high quality and purposely for milk production. 3.2 RAIN-FED CROP PRODUCTION Stage and Condition of food Crops The main food crops grown were maize, beans and green grams. In all livelihood zones farmers were busy harvesting maize. However, a few farmers in the rain fed lowlands were still harvesting green grams. 7

8 4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1 LIVESTOCK MARKETING Cattle Prices The average market price of a three year old bull was relatively stable at Kshs 23,700 compared to the previous month and this was attributed to the prevailing good body condition of cattle across the county. The highest prices were reported in the horticulture/ dairy livelihood zone of Kshs 27,500, the lowest was reported in irrigated cropping/ livestock livelihood zone of Kshs 20,000.The price difference was a result of better breeds kept in this zone and farmers practice zero grazing. In the mixed farming: Irrigated cropping/ livestock livelihood zone prices were at Kshs 26,000. Compared to the long term mean, the county average price was higher by 13.5 percent Goat Prices 8

9 The county average market price of a two year goat remained stable at Kshs 5,000 as posted in the previous month. The highest prices were reported in the mixed farming: horticulture/ dairy livelihood zone of Kshs 7,000, the lowest prices were reported in mixed farming: food crop/ livestock livelihood zone and mixed farming: irrigated cropping/ livestock livelihood zone at Kshs 4,032 and Kshs 4,067 respectively. The price difference was a result of good body condition and better breeds. Compared to long term mean, the average price was higher by 14.2 percent. 4.2 CROP PRICES Maize The average market price of a kilo of maize remained stable at Kshs 32.9 as posted in the previous month and below long term mean by 19 percent. The stable price was as a result of ongoing harvest and retailers have maintained the same stock at low prices. Across the livelihood zones the price varied with the mixed farming: irrigated /livestock livelihood zone, areas of irrigation zone in Challa and Eldoro in Taveta Sub County recording low price of Kshs In the mixed farming: food crops/livestock and mixed farming: horticulture/ dairy livelihood zones (Wumingu, Mwakajo, Rukanga and Mwachawaza) reported prices at Kshs 35 per kilo. 9

10 4.2.2 Beans The average market price of a kilo of beans remained stable at Kshs 83.6 as reported in the previous month and below the long term mean by 10 percent. The below normal prices are attributed to harvests being experienced in different parts of the county. Lowest prices were recorded in mixed farming: irrigated cropping/livestock livelihood zone; Challa at Kshs 77 due to harvests from irrigation schemes, while high prices were recorded in the mixed farming: food crops/livestock livelihood zone of Kshs 91 in Mwakajo, Mwachawaza and Rukanga markets. In the mixed farming: horticulture/ dairy livelihood zone prices were at Kshs INCOME The main source of income was casual labour. Others included; trade, sale of crops, employment and sale of livestock products at lower proportions. Compared to previous month income from sale of livestock products rose by 1.9 percent while sale of crops declined by the same margin. Casual labour opportunities were available in the sisal and banana plantations, irrigation schemes, mining sector, herding, ranches, building sites and town centres. n=210hhs 10

11 4.4 TERMS OF TRADE (CASUAL LABOUR VERSUS MAIZE PRICES) The Terms of Trade were favourable recorded at 56.1 relatively similar to that posted in the previous month and 10 percent above the long term mean implying an improved purchasing power compared to normal times. Earnings accruing from casual labour managed to purchase similar quantities of maize compared to last month. Highest ratio was recorded in mixed farming: irrigated cropping/livestock livelihood zone; Challa of 68 where casual labour opportunities are available in the irrigation farms, while lowest ratio was recorded in the mixed farming: food crops/livestock livelihood zone of 52. Casual labour earnings purchased 56.1 kilograms of maize as shown in the graph above. 5. FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 MILK CONSUMPTION Milk consumption per household per day decreased to 1.1 litres from 1.2 litres posted in the previous month. Milk consumption remained relatively stable and above the long term mean by 22 percent. 11

12 Milk consumption was normal at one litre per household per day across all livelihood zones and this was attributed to the prevailing livestock good body conditions. 5.2 FOOD CONSUMPTION SCORE The prevalence of households with poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption (FCS) score was 2, 52 and 46 percent respectively. Compared with previous month prevalence eleven percent under the acceptable category dropped to borderline and category. Compared with similar period in 2018 where prevalence was at 2, 41 and 57 percent respectively, household consumption patterns were slightly much better in terms of those who were categorized to be in acceptable food consumption score. The mean food consumption score was recorded at 36.8 compared to 37.8 posted in January, The mean FCS score was high in the mixed farming: horticulture/ dairy and mixed farming: food crop/ livestock livelihood zones both recorded at 38 where most households consumed three food groups i.e. maize, pulses and vegetables and in addition meat and milk was served. Low score was in the mixed farming: irrigated cropping/ livestock livelihood zone at 34 where only three food groups were served and not for seven days in a week. n=210hhs 12

13 5.3 HEALTH AND NUTRITION STATUS A total of 610 children below five years were sampled for MUAC out of which 44 percent were female and 56 percent male Nutrition Status The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition ( mm) increased to 1.1 percent from 0.6 percent posted in the previous month. Zero cases of GAM by MUAC ( mm) and Severe<115 mm prevailed from last month The current proportion of MUAC ( ) was lower than LTM by 56 percent. In all livelihood zones nutrition status of children below five years in sampled sentinel sites remained good in the month under review Health Diseases reported from sampled children were fever with chills like malaria, diarrhoea and fever with breathing difficulty. Fever with chills like malaria featured prominently in Kasigau and Mboghoni Wards. Proportion of sampled children with fever with chills like malaria in Kasigau and Mboghoni Wards was at 13 and 11 percent respectively. No major disease outbreak was reported during the month. 5.4 COPING STRATEGIES The average Coping Strategy Index (CSI) for the month under review was 4.05 compared to 4.13 posted in the previous month indicating households employed less consumption based coping strategies. The CSI was 22 percent below the long term average meaning household employed below normal consumption based coping strategies. 13

14 Similar period last year CSI was at 3.54 (14 percent below) meaning households employed less coping strategies. The two prevalent strategies reported were reduction of number of meals and reduction of portion sizes of meals. Approximately 17 percent of sampled households relied on less preferred and/ less expensive food for two to three days in a week while 26 percent reduced portion of meals for two to three days in a week. High CSI was recorded in mixed farming: irrigated cropping/ livestock livelihood zone at 6.8 while the lowest was n the mixed farming: horticulture/ dairy livelihood zone at 1.9. In the mixed farming: food crop/ livestock livelihood zone the CSI was at 3.5. The graph below show trend of consumption based coping strategy index in the county. n=210hhs 6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES (ACTION) 6.1 FOOD AND NON FOOD INTERVENTIONS Sectoral Intervention Activities Implementers Agriculture & Livestock Sector Post harvest Management Community sensitization on food storage / handling Dept of Agriculture & Artificial insemination Breeds improvement Water Sector Livestock Truck water to Mwakitau due to broken down borehole County Provision of water IMAM Zungulukani and Mgeno Drilling of Chakaleri, Kituma and Mwashuma boreholes Health and Nutrition Sector Supply of essential commodities for Integrated Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) Government County Government Dept of Health & Nutrition 14

15 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 Insecurity/ Conflict/ Human Displacement Destruction of crops by marauding elephants reported in Kasigau Ward and areas neighbouring the park. Presence of herds of camel observed near community settlement areas of Sagalla and Mwatate Wards. 7.2 Migration There were no major migration reported across all livelihood zones except for the minimal livestock movements in few parts of mixed farming irrigated/ livestock zone areas of Taveta where cattle have been moved from Salaita to Rombo and from Chumvini/ Njukini to Chyulu hills in search of better pastures. 7.3 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS Forecast by the Meteorological department indicate that the county will receive below to near normal rainfall during the long rains season with exception of Taveta Sub County expected to experience enhanced rains that might result to flush floods in prone areas of Mboghoni and Mata Wards. Forage condition is good in terms of quality and quantity and expected to last for at least two months in the county. However, in the rain fed areas of Taveta Sub County there is scarcity of pasture and browse and livestock especially cattle have started to show signs of pasture stress. However, food security situation is expected to remain stable sustained by the expected harvest from the short rains season and promoted by the expected near normal long rains. Majority of the population are likely to have borderline and acceptable food consumption scores, employ normal food coping strategies. Nutrition status will remain stable and no mortalities as a result of food insecurity are expected. Particular attention and close monitoring is required in rain fed areas of Challa and Mata Wards in Taveta Sub County. As the dry period prolongs cases of human wildlife conflicts are expected to increase due to drying up of open water sources inside the parks coupled by depletion of pasture and natural vegetation. 8. RECOMMENDATIONS Agriculture and Livestock Sector Post harvest management trainings. Vaccination of FMD. Promote poultry production. Water and Irrigation Sector Repair of Nyangoro borehole Truck drinking water to Ngambenyi, Mgeno and Mwakitau 15

16 Public Health and Nutrition Sector Scale up Vitamin A Supplementation and Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) through training of health community workers (HCWs). Deworming for both adults and children. Household level water treatment. Provision of water treatment tabs mainly in rain fed lowlands. Peace and Security Sector KWS to enhance surveillance in areas bordering the park especially Sagalla, Kasigau and Ngolia Wards. 16