National Drought Management Authority KILIFI COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, AUGUST 2017

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1 National Drought Management Authority KILIFI COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, AUGUST 2017 AUGUST EW PHASE Early Warning(EW) Phase Classification Livelihood Zone Stage Trend Drought situation and phase classification Biophysical Indicators (Environmental indicators) Some off season rains were recorded during the 1 st and 2 nd decade of August whose spatial distribution was uneven as compared to the previous month which was generally dry State of water sources in the county during the month under review was 4 (declining)-below normal at this time of the year. On average pasture and browse condition recorded deterioration trend. On average, the county 3-month VCI for August was indicating moderate vegetation deficit with Magarini sub county recording severe vegetation deficit. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators Livestock body condition ranged between poor to good with deteriorating trend as pasture and water stress continued. Milk production remained low as compared to the long term mean at this time of the year. Access indicators Average return distance from water sources recorded significant increase both for households and livestock in the month under review as more pans dried up and pasture got depleted. Food prices recorded some decrease as minimal long rains harvest was recorded. The Terms of Trade were favorable for the livestock keepers during the month of August. Utilization indicators Significant number of households recorded acceptable food consumption as compared to the previous month. Children under five-years at risk of malnutrition recorded minimal decrease as compared to the previous month. Households more so in the livestock and in some parts of the marginal mixed farming zone continued recording various coping strategies following food shortages. Marginal Mixed farming Alarm Deteriorating Livestock/Ranching Alarm Deteriorating Cash Cropping/Dairy Alarm Deteriorating Food Cropping Alert Deteriorating COUNTY Alarm Deteriorating Biophysical Indicators Value Normal Average Rainfall (mm) >32 VCI-3month Production indicators Value Normal Livestock Migration Pattern Immigration and intra Migration Livestock Body Conditions Milk Production ltr/hh/day Crop condition Minimal harvesting green grams, cowpeas and maize Access Indicators Value Normal Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (% range) Ave. Water Distance for Households (Km) Ave. Grazing-Water point Distance (Km) Utilization indicators Value Normal MUAC (%) Coping Strategy Index 5.35 <5 No intra-migration Dry maize harvesting and significant harvesting of green grams and cow peas Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation Long rains Planting/Weeding High calving Rate Milk yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Planting/weeding Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Page 1 of 23

2 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall Performance 1.2 Onset The onset of the March-May 2017 long-rains was delayed, much rains were received in May and were evenly distributed. 1.2 Amount and Spatial Distribution Figure 1a: Average amount of rainfall recorded in Kilifi County The month of August recorded an increase in average amount of recorded. An average rainfall of 37.1mm was recorded in first and second decade across the county which was a significant increase compared to previous month. The average amount of rainfall recorded in August was higher compared to the previous month and 15% higher compared to the long term mean at this time of the year. Page 2 of 23

3 Figure 1b: Kilifi County rainfall distribution and NDVI condition: Source: WFP-VAM Minimal deviation in average amount of rainfall recorded in August compared to the long term mean. 2.0 IMPACT ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation Condition Vegetation Condition Index [VCI] The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) compares the current NDVI to the range of values observed in the same period in previous years. VCI-3month As at 31 st July, 2017 County Ganze Kaloleni KILIFI Magarini Malindi Kilifi-North Rabai Kilifi-South Figure 2a: Three month Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) values for Kilifi County [Source: Boku University -Austria] The county recorded on average 3 month-vci of placing the county at moderate vegetation deficit. Page 3 of 23

4 Figure 2b: Three month vegetation Condition Index (VCI) matrix and chart for Kilifi County (source: Boku University-Austria) On average, vegetation condition in the county was below long term mean following poor rains in the last three seasons. Figure 2c: Magarini Sub-County 3-Month Vegetation condition Indices Matrices Magarini sub county recorded 3month-VCI of 19.7 meaning the sub county was suffering following severe vegetation deficit. The ranching zone in the sub county is the most hit as some pockets recorded depleted pastures. Page 4 of 23

5 Figure 2d: Ganze Sub County 3-month Vegetation Condition Indices Matrices Ganze is one of the sub counties which recorded significant impacts of drought in late 2016 and early Also following poor 2017 long rains recorded in the sub county, drought impacts are still being experienced in the area. Figure2d1: Kilifi County Time Series Analysis for 3-month Vegetation Condition Indices [source: Boku University Austria] The 3month VCI recorded in August was below the average and almost equal to the minimum 3month VCI ever recorded during the same period but better compared to the previous year. Page 5 of 23

6 2.1.2 Pasture Figure 3a: Kilifi County Pasture Condition Areas recording good pasture condition recorded a decrease to 37.8 percent as compared to the previous month. Some pockets in Magarini and Ganze sub counties recorded depleted pastures occasioned by the prevailing dry spell. Pasture in the food cropping and cash cropping zone ranged between good to fair. The current pasture condition was below the long term mean at this time of the year. Page 6 of 23

7 2.1.3 Browse Figure 3b: Kilifi County Browse Condition On average browse condition recorded a deteriorating trend in the month of August. Poor pasture condition, 8.1 percent was recorded during the month under review an indication that the condition was on a decline. The browse condition ranged between good in the food cropping zone and in some parts of the mixed farming zone to poor in the ranching zone. The browse condition in the County was below normal at this time of the year. 2.2 Water Resources Sources The main water sources for domestic and livestock use across all livelihood zones in the month of August were pipeline, pans/dams, rivers, shallow wells, natural ponds and boreholes. Some households in the livestock/ranching zone of Ganze and Magarini Sub County recorded drying up of some pans thus trekking long distances in search for water. Pipeline use continued recording the highest number of households followed by pans and dams. Page 7 of 23

8 2.2.2 Household water access and utilization Figure 5: Households average return distance to water points. The average distance to water sources for households recorded some increase of 39.3 percent compared to previous month to stand at 7.8Km. The increase in average distance can be attributed to continued drying of pans near the households Many household in Rabai Sub County depended on traditional river wells to access water in the month of August due pipeline disruption. The mixed farming zone in Malindi Sub County recorded the shortest average distance to water sources. Average return distance to water point for households during the month was significantly higher than long term mean at this time of the year. Page 8 of 23

9 2.2.3 Livestock access to water Figure 6: Average livestock return distance to water point from grazing area. Average distance to water sources continued to record significant increase in the month under review as compared to the previous month. The increase in average distance can be attributed to continued water stress in the livestock/ranching and marginal zones as livestock trekked long distances in search for pasture and water. In livestock farming zone of Bamba ward in Ganze Sub County, both households and livestock accessed quality water at an average distance of 15-20Km. The existing borehole in Jila is salty and the water pans have dried up due to poor recharge for the last three seasons. The average return distance to grazing areas during the month under review was higher than the long term mean at this time of the year. Page 9 of 23

10 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.0 Livestock Production Livestock body condition On average livestock body condition ranged between good and fair. The body condition of catlle ranged between good in food cropping, mixed farming and cash cropping zones and fair to poor in ivestock farming zones of Ganze and Magarini sub counnties in the month under review. The body condition for goats and sheep was good across all livelihood zones occassioned by availabilty of pasture and browse but expected to deteriorate as browase condition recorded decrease in quality and quantity Livestock disease No major diseases were recorded in the county Milk production Figure 7: Average Milk Production Milk production in the month of August record some increase compared to previous month. The average milk productions per day in the month under review was slightly low compared to the long term mean. The increase can be attributed to availability of pasture and water in cash/dairy and food cropping zones. Page 10 of 23

11 3.2 RAIN FED CROP PRODUCTION Stage and condition of food crops In Kilifi South land preparation for short rain has began while the late planted maize crop tussling and poding stage but water stressed. Long rains late planted maize crop was ready for harvest though minimal harvest expected. Long rains late planted green grams and cowpeas were still at the farms with minimal harvest expected Crop Harvest Minimal harvesting of long rains maize crop, green grams and cowpeas was recorded in the food cropping, mixed farming and marginal farming zones. Page 11 of 23

12 4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1. LIVESTOCK MARKET Cattle prices Figure 7: Average cattle price (4 year bull/steer) in major livestock markets in Kilifi County. Average cattle price for the month of August recorded significant increase compared to the previous month and this may be attributed to livestock body condition and low supply of livestock in the markets as farmers hoped for a better short rains season. The average price recorded in the month of August was higher than the long term mean at this time of the year. Page 12 of 23

13 4.1.2 Goat prices. Figure 8: Average goat price (3 year old) at market level in Kilifi County. The average market price of a medium sized goat recorded an increase in month under review, this can be attributed to low supply in the market as body condition remained good and high demand for restocking by farmers who lost livestock during the drought period. The average price recorded in the month of August was higher than the long term mean at this time of the year. Page 13 of 23

14 4.2 Crop prices Maize Figure 9: Average maize price in Kilifi County. The average price per kilogram of maize recorded significant decrease in the month of August. This can be attributed to low demands by the households following some harvest of maize crop and availability of sifted maize meal costing Kshs90/2kg packet. In the ranching zones of Ganze and Magarini Sub Counties no harvesting of maize crop was recorded due poor rains during the long rains season thus households depended on the market for food supplies. The average price recorded for the month under review was higher compared to long term mean at this time of the year. Page 14 of 23

15 4.2.2 Beans Figure 10: Average beans price in Kilifi County. Average beans price per kilogram recorded some decrease compared to the previous month and this may be attributed to low demand as some harvesting of green grams and cowpeas was recorded across all livelihood zones. Average price expected to remain high compared to long term mean as 2017 long rains production remained significantly low following poor temporal and uneven spatial distribution of the rains. The average price recorded during the month under review was higher than the long term mean at this time of the year. Page 15 of 23

16 4.3 TERMS OF TRADE The terms of trade determines the purchasing power of livestock (goat) sellers. Figure 11: Terms of trade for Kilifi County. The terms of trade recorded a significant increase in the month of August and this may be attributed to increase in average goat prices as average maize price recorded a decrease. The terms of trade for the month under review recorded minimal deviation from the long term mean at this time of the year. Page 16 of 23

17 5.0 NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 MILK CONSUMPTION The average milk consumption per household per day remained stable as compared to the previous month. The consumption is expected to record a decrease as livestock access to water and pasture recorded some stress. Average milk prices in the market remained stable. 5.2 Health and Nutrition Status Mid Upper Arm Circumstance (MUAC) Figure 13: Proportion of children under five years at risk of malnutrition. The percentage of children at risk of malnutrition recorded a 0.5% decrease in August compared to the previous month. Page 17 of 23

18 The decrease may be attributed to some minimal harvesting recorded at household levels in the food cropping, cash/dairy and marginal mixed farming zones Food Consumption Score. Figure 14: Food Consumption Score Livestock/Ranching and food cropping zones recorded households at poor food consumption. Mixed farming and Marginal mixed farming zones recorded significant number of households were at acceptable food consumption an improvement from the previous month. This can be attributed to some harvesting of maize crop, green grams and cowpeas recorded in August. Page 18 of 23

19 5.3 COPING STARTEGIES Coping Strategy Index Figure 13: Coping Strategy Index for Kilifi County Household food shortages in livestock farming and cash cropping remain high as households continued to employ different coping strategies to survive. Most employed coping strategies among households were; Spent savings Reduced quantity of food consumed by adults to ensure children get enough to eat Reduction in number and meal rations per day. Opting for less preferred or cheaper meals. Households expected to continue employing different coping strategies till significant harvest is recorded to boost household food security as 2017 long rains harvest remained significantly low compared to the seasons long term mean. 6.0 CURRENT ONGOING INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Food- aid Supplementary/ therapeutic feeding program in health facilities across the county by County Department of Health, UNICEF, IMC. 6.2 Non-food aid Social- Protection Page 19 of 23 Cash transfers to the elderly, orphaned and vulnerable children, people with severe disability by National government across the county.

20 Cash transfer by the County Government to 1750 households across the 35wards. Cash transfers to 1300 vulnerable households at rate of Kshs2000 per month in Kaloleni Sub County most hit Sub County by 2016/17 drought by Kenya Red Cross Society. Cash for Asset by GoK/ WFP, World Vision, Kenya Red Cross Society and NDMA in Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai and Magarini Sub Counties to 12,200No.of vulnerable households. unconditional Cash Transfer, Chakula Kwa Jamii, by National Government in collaboration with WFP, NDMA, WV and KRCS to 33, 000 households in the whole county each getting Kshs2300 per month. Agriculture Sector Community sensitization on conservational Agriculture by County Department of Agriculture and FAO. Livestock Sector Livestock feed distribution to 40 households in Kaloleni Sub County under Early Warning Early Response pilot project by FAO. Health Sector Community capacity building on appropriate infant and young child feeding practices (mother-to-mother support groups) by county department of Health, Plan International, International Medical Corps and World Vision. Promotion of maternal and child health in the county by Share progamme by International Medical Corps) in collaboration with the county department of health in Ganze sub county which continued recording high cases of malnutrition. Water Sector Water trucking in Ganze Sub County to schools and community mainly in Ganze and Bamba wards. Page 20 of 23

21 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES Cholera outbreak in the county. 7.1 Food Security Prognosis Food security in areas of the ranching zone following no harvest was recorded during the long rains and pasture and water stress was evident. Food insecurity expected to record minimal improvement as long rains crop harvest started in Kilifi North, Kilifi South and Kaloleni Sub County. Livestock body condition in the ranching zone expected to deteriorate as pasture and water condition continued deteriorating. Food prices expected to record minimal decrease as 2017 long rains crop-harvest started though on small scale. 7.2 INDICATORS TO BE MONITORED Livestock body condition in the ranching zones of Magarini and Ganze sub counties. Household food security following below normal long rains harvest.as rain-fed agriculture continued performing dismally. Water situation in the county as Magarini and Ganze recorded poor recharge since 2016 long and short rains. Livestock body condition and conflicts over resources in Magarini along river Sabaki. Community recovery and resilience option to drought. Page 21 of 23

22 8 RECOMMENDATIONS Water sector Distilling of strategic water pans including Jila and Ndigiria in Ganze Sub County, Wachifa, Kadzifitzeni in Magarini Sub County and those in Kaloleni Sub County. Construction of mega dam for water harvesting in Kaloleni, Ganze and Magarini which underserved by pipeline and hard hit by drought due water scarcity for household and livestock County Government, NDMA Pipeline extension Kaloleni, Ganze and Magarini sub counties which are hard hit by drought by water department. Agriculture Sector Community sensitization on early land preparation for 2017 short rains forecasted to be better. Promotion of small-scale irrigation on high value crops in order to contribute to household incomes and diversified household diet by Agriculture sector. Farmers sensitization on postharvest management. Livestock Sector Livestock disease surveillance across the county as migration continued Stockpiling of hay in strategic areas as pasture condition deteriorated fast. Restocking of livestock in areas of Kaloleni where pasture is fair and water for livestock available. Livestock feed supplementation and hay to support the livestock whose body condition had deteriorated significantly due to lack of pasture and water stress in Ganze and Magarini sub counties by livestock sector, NDMA, FAO. Close monitoring of livestock migration from neighboring counties and intramigration by livestock department. Diversification on livestock keeping; more investment on goat, bee-keeping and local chicken following lessons learnt from recent drought in Ganze, Kaloleni and Magarini sub counties by Livestock sector, FAO Community sensitization on early livestock off take/disposal, formation of cooperative and feed conservation to minimize losses in case of a disaster by livestock sector, NDMA, FAO. Promote pasture and fodder planting along river Sabaki and during the coming short rains season to reduce Livestock drought stress by livestock sector, NDMA Page 22 of 23

23 Health Sector Close monitoring of cholera outbreaks in the county Support for malnourished children under five years in areas recording high cases of children at risk of malnutrition in Kaloleni, Ganze and Magarini sub counties. Out scale mass screening to capture cases (under-fives, pregnant and lactating women) at risk of malnutrition or already malnourished for timely intervention by department of health, NDMA, IMC, UNICEF. Education Sector Upscale the number of schools under Home Grown School Meals Programme (HGSMP) to boost retention in Kaloleni, Malindi, Magarini and Ganze sub counties by Ministry of Education, Plan international. Support schools with installation of water harvesting structures for water harvesting to reduce water stress during drought Kaloleni, Malindi, Magarini and Ganze sub counties by Ministry of Education, Plan international and World Vision. Support to schools with food-for-fees programme in Kaloleni, Magarini and Ganze sub counties by the Ministry of Education, Kilifi County Government and NDMA Multi-Sectoral Rapid assessment in Magarini and Ganze sub counties following low score of 3 month-vci. Upscale cash transfer beneficiaries across the county. Significant investment on attitude change towards adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Smart Agriculture Page 23 of 23