Arid Lands Resource Management Project II Revised Early Warning System

Transcription

1 Arid Lands Resource Management Project II Revised Early Warning System Drought Monitoring Bulletin: TANA RIVER DISTRICT Period: October 2006 WARNING STAGE: Kora National Park MADOGO Mwingi District Kitui District Tsavo East National Park BURA TANA TANA RIVER DISRICT Hola! GALOLE GARSEN 0 Malindi District KM Garissa District Tana River Primate Reserv Lamu District Indian Ocean DIVISION STAGE TREND KIPINI Alert/Normal Improving GARSEN Alert Improving WENJE Alert Improving GALOLE Alert Improving BURA Alert Improving MADOGO Alert/Alarm Improving BANGALE Alert/Alarm Improving DISTRICT Alert Improving TIME LINE ACTIVITIES Milk yield drops Livestock move towards dry seasons grazing areas High milk yield Livestock move towards the traditional wet season grazing areas. High Calving and lambing rates. Low milk availability Livestock move towards the fall back dry seasons grazing areas (riverine and delta) High Milk yield Livestock move back to the traditional wet season grazing areas. Calving rates increases Short dry spell Long rains Long dry spell Short rains Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Short rains harvest Situation Overview. Planting/weeding Long rains harvest Planting/Weeding Most areas of the district reported to have received some rains during the 3 rd dekad of the month. This is also being predicted as the beginning of the short rains. The water situation has slightly improved in those areas where the rains were reported. The vegetation condition was reported to have improved in most areas of the district. Livestock body and health conditions generally rated fair except in the worst affected areas Waldena, Daba, Buwa and parts of Bura. Livestock prices have generally declined while cereals prices generally rose. No outstanding disease outbreak reported No meaningful agricultural activities in place apart from pocket harvests of tomatoes and onions mainly reported in the northern and central parts of the district (marginal mixed farming zone). Livestock have begun migrating towards the traditional grazing areas of the hinterland. However high concentration is still being felt in the delta and riverine areas. The nutritional status based on the MUAC for the under fives further stabilised No outstanding incidences of conflict reported however, human/wild life conflicts continue to be reported district wide. 1

2 Recommendations to DSG/KFSSG Though Kipini is currently not benefiting from the EMOP there are pockets of food insecure households who require food aid There is need to urgently address the issue of emerging brooks upstream which have greatly reduced the water levels downstream therefore directly affecting the socioeconomic activities of people in the affected areas.. Current interventions. Non-Food Aid De-worming and CBPP vaccination Water tracking to water stressed areas Polio sensitization/awareness campaign Distribution of drought tolerant seeds. Food Aid. Emergency food operations in 6 divisions School feeding programme Supplementary feeding. Food for work activities. DSG meeting The District Steering Group meeting was held in 26 th October 2006 with the following issues being discussed. There is need to step up conservation measures and curb deforestation activities, which have become rife in most parts of the district. Raise alert to communities living along the flood prone zones of the district for possible floods. In order to assure transport and flow of goods during the anticipated rains season there is urgent need to construct bridged in the black spot areas along the Hola/Garsen road. Meanwhile a grader/tractor be situated in those areas (Baomo) to assist tracks that may get stuck. 2

3 1. ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS (STABILITY) 1.1 Rainfall. Most areas of the district reported to have received some rains. The southern parts of the district however received better rains than the northern divisions Bura, Madogo and Bangale Rains at this time of the year are anticipated as the short rains season is normally expect towards the mid of October. 1.2 Condition of natural vegetation and pasture. The quality of natural vegetation has generally improved as most large trees and browse have turned green while pasture on the other hand have regenerated in most of the areas where the rains were reported. The situation is expected to improve further if the rains will continue. 1.3 Water Sources and Availability The water situation has generally improved as most natural ponds and dams/pans have recharged especially in those areas where substantial amounts of rains were reported. However, most parts of Bangale (Tula, Baleneka, Sosoma, Katumba) and parts of Assa (Kone) continue to report water stress. No significant changes were observed on the percentage of communities accessing the water sources however congestion along the river is expected to reduce as the natural ponds and dams continue to accumulate substantial amounts of water. Average distances to both domestic and livestock are expected to reduce tremendously. Current distances to water for domestic use was recorded at 1.5km while for livestock from grazing areas reducing to 10km from 20km reported last month. 1.4 Emerging Issues Insecurity/conflict /human displacement Human/wildlife conflict in terms of crop destruction, livestock predation and human attacks has becomes an issue of concern as it continues to be reported in almost all areas of the district. Emerging brooks along the delta have threatened the water levels down stream to the extent that the eco-system has been adversely affected leading to dwindling of the socioeconomic activities and traditional coping systems. If the situation is not addressed it may trigger human displacements Migration No outstanding cases of migrations were reported however; livestock along the riverine and delta have begun moving towards the traditional wet season grazing areas. 1.5 Implications on food security As the range resources improve, milk yield is also expected to improve therefore boost the Pastoralists food security situation Movement of animals towards the traditional grazing areas is also expected to bring the animals near the pastoralists households therefore boost milk availability at the household level. Wild life menace is however anticipated to greatly affect the food availability among the agro-pastoral communities. 2.0 RURAL ECONOMY INDICATORS (FOOD AVAILABILITY) 2.1 Livestock Production Livestock body condition Livestock body and health condition generally continue to be rated fair except in the worst drought affected areas of the district. These include parts of Bangale (Asako, Buwa, Boka), Wayu and Waldena, Madogo and Bura. This is a normal situation during such time of the year however expected to improve with the anticipated onset of the short rains Livestock diseases Livestock diseases reported during the month include LSD, F&M, CCPP, CBPP, Tsetse Worms and Ticks. 3

4 The DVO is currently undertaking vaccination and de-worming campaigns and has also imposed some quarantine measures Milk production During the month milk production dropped. This may be due to livestock tress resulting from the harsh weather conditions. This is an anticipated trend at this time of the year. The yield is however expected to improve after the anticipated onset of the short rains. 2.2 Crop Production Timeliness and condition of various crop productions No meaningful agricultural activities going on. Main activities remain land preparation A few farmers in Kipini (Ozi, Kilelengwani) have their rice crop at gold maturity while others are still transplanting Pests and diseases Snails and crabs remain the main problem in the rice fields in Kipini Harvests Some farmers in the northern and central (marginal mixed farming zone) are still harvesting tomatoes and onions. Some pocket mango harvesting is also going on in a few areas. In the delta (Mixed farming zone), a few farmers in Ozi Kilelengwani and Kau have begun rice harvesting however most of the crop is still at gold maturity Implications on food security The pastoralists food security situation is temporarily expected to stabilize if the current rains will continue. The agro-pastoralists will meanwhile continue to face food deficits as no meaningful crop production activities are in place. 3.0 ACCESS TO FOOD 3.1 Livestock marketing Cattle Prices TANA RIVER DISTRICT CATTLE PRICES AT HOUSEHOLD LEVEL FOR OCTOBER 2006 VS AVG. PRICES ,000 8,000 Price in Kshs 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3, ,440 6,767 7,654 7,010 7,422 7,039 6,142 6,552 7,855 5,963 Mean ( ) 7,106 5,868 6,215 6,443 6,081 6,033 6,217 5,893 5,858 5,728 5,815 6,727 During the month, the prices of cattle dropped in almost all the divisions recording an average price of ksh5, 963/= compared to ksh.7, 855/= reported in September The prices were almost corresponding with the long term seasonal norm of ksh5, 815/= Drop in prices at this time of the year is a normal situation due to anticipated body weakness. This time it was also coupled with congestion of the same in the market outlets. 4

5 3.1.2 Goat Prices TANA RIVER DISTRICT GOATSPRICES AT HOUSEHOLD LEVEL FOR SEPT VS AVG PRICES ,000 1,800 1,600 Price in kshs. 1,400 1,200 1, ,032 1,190 1,182 1,283 1,030 1,210 1,312 1,229 1,276 1,827 Mean ( ) 1, ,161 1, , ,000 Month 2006 Mean ( ) The price of goats rose to ksh1, 827/= against ksh1, 276/= recorded for last month. Such a drastic rise is not anticipated however could have been attributed to high demand of the same during the Idd festivals Sheep Prices TANA RIVER SHEEP PRICES AT HH LEVEL FOR SEPT. COMPARED TO AVG PRICES FOR PRICES IN KSH Mean ( ) The price of sheep further dropped to ksh874 from last month s ksh947. The prices were still maintained below the long-term seasonal average price. This is anticipated, as most people prefer goat to sheep meat. 5

6 3.1.4 Camel Prices TANA RIVER DISTRICT PRICES FOR CAMEL AT HOUSEHOLD LEVEL AS AT OCT ,000 19,000 17,000 15,000 Price in Kshs 13,000 11,000 9,000 7,000 5,000 3, ,875 10,000 20,000 11,667 12,000 20,000 18, ,000 Mean ( ) 6,953 3,889 8,225 7,267 8,003 5,941 6,683 5,663 5,547 5,083 5,117 5,553 The price of camel recorded at ksh19, 000/= and was substantially above the long-term seasonal average price recorded at ksh5, 083/=. This drastic fluctuation of the price from the seasonal range could be due to high demand of the same in the local and external markets. 3.2 Livestock sales During the month sale of small stock was enhanced while sale of cattle remained constant. Enhanced sale of the small stock specifically goats could be due to the Idd celebrations. 3.3 Milk consumption It was observed that during the month more milk was being consumed by the young at the expense of every member of the household as during the month the percentage of households affording milk to their children only rose to 49.57% from 39.74% while the percentage of households affording milk to every member of the household dropped to 1.5% from 2.86% respectively. 3.4 Crop prices Maize The price of maize rose to ksh24/= from ksh21/=. It also rose above the seasonal average price This is anticipated as during this time of the year cereals begin becoming scarce both at the household and local markets therefore attracting high prices. 6

7 TANA RIVER MAIZE PRICES AT HOUSEHOLD LEVEL FOR OCT VS AVERAGES FOR Price in Kshs Mean ( ) Posho (sifted) TANA RIVER POSH PRICES AT HOUSEHOLD LEVELFOR OCT VS. AVERAGES FOR Prices in Kshs Mean ( ) The price of posho remained constant however above the seasonal average price for the time of the year Rice Price of rice rose to ksh44/= from ksh42/= The price was above seasonal range for this time of the year. 7

8 RICE PRICES AT HOUSEHOLD LEVEL IN TANA RIVER FOR OCTOBER VS. AVG FOR price in Kshs Mean ( ) Income Crop income Income from crop declined to 10% from 18% reported last month. This is anticipated as the harvest season is over and stock have began depleting Livestock income Income from sale of livestock and livestock products contributed the highest percentage of income at the household level recording 26% of the total household income Other income Other sources of income included labour contributing 22%, charcoal 13%, wood 12%, remittance 6% and petty trade 11% respectively. Income Sources at the Household level for Tana River District- October 2006 sell of livestock 26% sell of crops 10% remittance 6% petty trade 11% casual labour 22% sell of wood 12% sell of charcoal 13% casual labour sell of charcoal sell of wood petty trade remittance sell of livestock sell of crops 8

9 3.6 Cereal: Meat ratio (Trading Terms) The pastoralists trading terms further stabilized as the cereal/meat price ratio realized a drastic drop of about 60% (from 59.56% to 23.43%) This is could have been attributed to substantial rise in the price of goats earlier reported. 3.7 Implications on food security. The above indicators generally points towards food insecurity situation as even though the trading terms stabilized, the cereal prices were also rising while the incomes from the main sources (livestock and crops) also declined. 4.0 WELFARE INDICATORS (UTILIZATION OF FOOD): 4.1 Nutrition Status. NUTRITION STATUS FOR JAN. - OCT VS AVG (Muac <135mm) - TANA RIVER M ean ( ) There was a tremendous improvement in the nutritional status of the under-fives based on the MUAC measurement as the percentage of children categorized as being at Risk of malnutrition dropped to 18.35%. The nutritional status has also recorded a historical drop of below the long term seasonal recorded since This could have a reward of enhanced supplementary interventions and positive household milk consumption patterns especially to the young ones earlier reported. 4.2 Health. Malaria related diseases formed the highest number of cases reported. Other diseases include isolated cases of diarrhoea and URTI More efforts are geared towards malaria control measures as more cases are anticipated as the wet season starts Current Intervention Measures and Copping Strategies. 5.1 Non-Food Interventions. Non-food interventions being carried out during the month included, Water tracking to water stressed areas of Bangale and Assa (Kone) and water stressed schools an intervention by the water the water department, ALRMPII and Catholic Dioceses of Garissa. CCBP, CCPP, LSD and de-worming campaign by the DSG and DVO Polio sensitisation and awareness campaign by the MOH Distribution of drought tolerant seeds by the DAO these include - 83 bales of sorghum bales of Maize bales of cowpeas. 9

10 5.2 Food Aid EMOP based on the long rains assessment carried out in August 2006, the beneficiary figures were scaled down to 88,794 from 9,8050 while Kipini was still left out. Food allocated for September and October include, Food type Allocation Cereals 919MT Pulses 160MT Oil 53MT Blends 355MT Salt 13.3MT Mobilization and retargeting was carried out and distribution started on 17 th October 2006 so far reaching about 38% of the targeted population. The main drawback being lack of access due poor roads caused by the rains coupled by resistance by the communities to accept the new targets. Supplementary feeding for under-fives, pregnant and lactating mothers. Food for work activities by the Wenje Parish to benefit 16 villages of Wenje division for 6 months. Food distribution include - Maize and Rice - 150MT - Beans - 55MT - Oils - 10MT. School feeding programme food meant for term three and already distributed include 235MT rice, 66MT pulses and 5MT oil. Twenty schools also benefited from bulgar wheat. 5.3 Other Coping Strategies - Sale of wood and wood products - Labour migration - Gifts and remittance 5.4 Recommendations. There is need to address the issue of emerging brooks in the delta as they have robbed of the normal flow of the river to the extent that the eco-system, socio-economic activities and coping mechanisms down stream are at the verge of collapsing. Action: DSG/DPC/Community/partners. As a preparedness mechanism, there is need to sensitise communities living along the flood prone areas of the district on the need to move to higher grounds in anticipation of floods Action: Disaster Management Committee/Partners/Communities More preparedness activities in terms of provision of appropriate farm inputs and Introduction of food for work activities in some areas are enhanced to take advantage of the ongoing rains. Action: DAO/DSG/Partners/Communities 10