Advanced Cost Estimation, Validation and Risk Management

Transcription

1 Advanced Cost Estimation, Validation and Risk Management Excel your estimating skills to achieve greater efficiency for your company advancement! 11th Nov th Nov 2013, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Petrosync Distinguished Instructor Larry R. Dysert Managing Partner Conquest Consulting Group (CCG) Bring your laptop and learn from the Leading Cost Engineering Framework Worldwide! Over 30 years of global experience in project estimating, management, consulting, and training experience. Chair of AACE International Technical Board, Award Winner & Fellow of AACE International Certified Cost Consultant, Certified Estimating Professional Course Objectives Gain comprehensive and in-depth coverage of Project Cost Estimating. Develop a sound understanding of both conceptual and detailed estimating methodologies. Understand the various AACE Classes of Estimate. Learn to prepare regression analysis using MS Excel to develop parametric estimating models. Understand the concept of Estimate Accuracy and utilizing Risk Analysis to assist in determining the effects of uncertainty. Work on many practical hands-on exercises to practice various estimating techniques and concepts. Specially Designed for The course is designed for Cost Engineers, Cost Estimators, Cost Controllers, Project Managers, Project Engineers, Analysts, Finance Managers & Executives. HYBRID TRAINING SOLUTIONS FOCUS TRAINING REDUCE COST ENHANCED RESULTS Over the years, there has been a growing demand for hybrid training programs. It is an excellent option to maximize your training dollar for your specific training needs. We make it possible to run a training program that is customized totally to your training needs at a fraction of an in-house budget! If you like to know more about this excellent program, please contact us on or general@petrosync.com Supported by

2 11th - 15TH November 2013, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Course Overview This 5-day course is designed specifically to provide comprehensive and in-depth coverage of Project Cost Estimating. Both conceptual and detailed estimating methodologies will be explained thoroughly. Through many practical hands-on exercises provided, you will be able to immediately practice the various estimating techniques and concepts. All attendees should bring a laptop computer with Microsoft Excel installed. Petrosync Distinguished Instructor Larry R. Dysert Managing Partner Conquest Consulting Group (CCG) Larry has over thirty years of project estimating, management, consulting, and training experience in the chemical, petroleum, oil sands, high technology, manufacturing, and construction industries. He is the Managing Partner of Conquest Consulting Group (CCG), involved in many of CCG's consulting areas, including providing cold-eyes estimate reviews, estimate preparation, estimating organizational development, estimating software implementation, project management and controls, and training. Larry has been responsible for the preparation of conceptual and detailed estimates for capital projects, domestic and international ranging to over $25 Billion in size. He has specialized in estimates of large project size, strategic importance, utilizing new technologies, and those involving the use of parametric estimating methodologies. Larry often provides training in estimating, Total Cost Management, cost metrics analysis, and risk analysis. He is a frequent presenter and author on estimating and project management topics. He is a Certified Cost Consultant, Certified Estimating Professional, AACE Fellow, Honorary Lifetime Member, and an active member of AACE International. Larry is the Chair of AACE's Technical Board, and the recipient of AACE's Total Cost Management Award. He is also a member of the Society for Cost Estimating and Analysis (SCEA). CLIENT LIST INCLUDES: Saudi Aramco Shell Exxon Chevron Petronas PTTEP Eastman Kodak Eastman Chemical Novacor Chemical Pemex Union Oil Jacob Engineering ARCO SOHIO Lagoven (Venezuela) Maroven (Venezuela) Kodak SASOL (South Africa) Petro-Canada DOE (Washington) Nova Chemical Syncrude (Canada) Petrotrin Raytheon Engineering Enbridge Pipelines Weyerhauser Sun Refining Saudi Pecten Petrochemical Pacific Refining Champlin Petroleum Fluor Corporation GS Engineering & Construction Corp PT Inti Karya Persada Technik Flint Energy Servies Bechtel Unifield Engineering Petrosync Quality Limited Attendees The course has limited seats to ensure maximum learning and experience for all delegates. Certificate of Attendance You will receive a Certificate of Attendance bearing the signatures of the Trainer upon successful completion of the course. This certificate is proof of your continuing professional development. Interactive Training You will be attending training designed to share both the latest knowledge and practical experience through interactive sessions. This will provide you with a deeper and more long-term understanding of your current issues. High Quality Course Materials Printed course manual will provide you with working materials throughout the course and will be an invaluable source of reference for you and your colleagues afterward. You can follow course progress on your laptop with soft copies provided.

3 11TH - 15TH November 2013, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Course Agenda Day One - 11th November 2013 Day Two - 12th November 2013 Overview and Factored Cost Estimating Day 1 provides an overview of the Estimating Function within the Total Cost Management Process. It discusses the various AACE Classes of Estimate, whereby the Class of Estimate is determined by the level of technical and project deliverables available to support the estimate. The available scope and project definition information largely determines the estimating methodologies that can be utilized for a given estimate. Conceptual estimating methodologies will be described; and practical exercises will be provided to reinforce understanding of the day's topics. AACE Total Cost Management Review Capital Project Process and Estimate Classification Estimate Preparation Workflow Exercise - Developing an Estimate Plan Factored and Conceptual Estimating Methodologies Conceptual Estimating Methodologies Analogy Exercise - Developing an analogy estimate Delphi Estimating Method Exercise - Developing a Delphi method estimate Capacity Factoring Developing Capacity Factors Exercise - Calculating capacity factors Using Capacity Factors Exercise - Developing a capacity factored estimate Equipment Factoring Developing Equipment Factors Using Equipment Factors Exercise - Developing an equipment factored estimate Parametric Estimating Day 2 begins with an overview of applicable statistical knowledge useful to the cost estimator. The fundamentals of regression analysis will be discussed; as well as the steps involved in using Microsoft Excel for both single and multi-variable regression analysis. This provides the key skills required to develop parametric estimating models. A practical example in developing a parametric estimating model will reinforce understanding of the key principles. Overview of Applicable Statistics Measures of Central Tendency Measures of Variation Correlation Exercise - Calculating key statistical measures from sample data Regression Analysis Single Variable Regression Analysis Multi-Variable Regression Analysis Exercise - Using Excel for regression analysis Parametric Estimating Developing Parametric Estimating Models Simple Parametric Estimating Models Complex Parametric Estimating Models Exercise - Developing a parametric estimating model Petrosync Quality Limited Attendees The course has limited seats to ensure maximum learning and experience for all delegates. PROGRAM SCHEDULE Certificate of Attendance You will receive a Certificate of Attendance bearing the signatures of the Trainer upon successful completion of the course. This certificate is proof of your continuing professional development. 08:00-09:00 09:00-11:00 11:00-11:15 11:15-13:00 13:00-14:00 14:00-15:30 15:30-15:45 15:45-17:00 Registration (Day 1) Session I Refreshment & Networking Session I Session II Lunch Session III Refreshment & Networking Session II Session IV End of Day Interactive Training You will be attending training designed to share both the latest knowledge and practical experience through interactive sessions. This will provide you with a deeper and more long-term understanding of your current issues. High Quality Course Materials Printed course manual will provide you with working materials throughout the course and will be an invaluable source of reference for you and your colleagues afterward. You can follow course progress on your laptop with soft copies provided.

4 11TH - 25TH OCTOBER 2013, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Day Three - 13th November 2013 Detailed Estimating Day 3 will be focused on Detailed (or Deterministic) Estimating. Many issues involved with the scope quantification to support a detailed estimate will be discussed; including methods to validate scope quantities. Costing both the labor and material resources required to install the required project scope will be covered; as well as issues such as labor productivity and adjusting default costing for project conditions. Detailed estimating requires a comprehensive cost database, and the steps involved in developing, maintaining, and calibrating a detailed cost database will be discussed. Practical exercises will reinforce the concepts. Detailed Estimating Steps Detailed Estimate Scope Quantification Developing and Verifying Discipline Quantities Exercise - Validating scope quantities Applying Labour to Quantities Labour Hours Labour Productivity Labour Rates Exercise - Developing a detailed labour estimate Applying Material Pricing to Quantities Material Pricing Converting Scope Quantities to Purchase Quantities Exercise - Calculating purchase quantities Adjusting the Estimate for Project Conditions Estimate Allowances Developing and Maintaining Detailed Cost Estimating Databases Exercise - Expanding a cost estimating database Day Five - 15th November 2013 Developing Organizational Estimating Competency Day 5 focuses on overall organizational competency of the estimating process. Issues involved with the organization of an estimating department will be discussed; emphasizing the skills, knowledge, and core competencies required by cost estimators. Estimators rely on effective historical information in the estimating process, and the collection of historical data and transforming data into useful information will be discussed. A demonstration of estimating software will be provided to inform attendees of the capabilities that such software provides; however, estimating software is simply an effective tool but it doesn't substitute for estimating skills and supporting information. Day Four - 14th November 2013 Estimate Quality Assurance Day 4 will provide coverage for the quality assurance steps required to promote effective estimating. The accuracy of the estimate is largely determined by understanding the uncertainty associated with the level of information available to support the estimate, as well as the estimating process itself. Risk Analysis is a method to assist in determining the effects of uncertainty on our cost estimate, and derive risk funds (Contingency and/or Reserves) to alleviate the influence of uncertainty in the estimating process. Escalation also provides an element of uncertainty that must be understood. Reconciling a current estimate to previous estimates will be discussed as a part of quality assurance. Compiling effective estimate documentation and reports will be discussed to communicate the estimate to stakeholders. Lastly, review and validation of cost estimates is discussed to provide assurance of estimate quality. Estimate Accuracy Estimating Uncertainty Estimate Risk Analysis Estimate Contingency / Reserves Escalation Estimate Reconciliation Exercise - Developing an estimate reconciliation report Estimate Documentation Estimate Summary Reports Exercise - Developing an estimate summary report Estimate Detail Reports Estimate Backup Documentation Basis of Estimate Report Estimate Review and Validation Exercise - Using metrics for estimate validation Finally, other estimating issues will be discussed, such as estimating in a global environment. Time will be provided for questions, and to accommodate deeper discussions for previous topics presented during the seminar. The Organization of an Estimating Department Estimator Skills, Knowledge and Core Competencies Estimating Tools and Resources Collecting and Utilizing Historical Data and Information What Historical Information Should Be Collected How to Turn Data Into Useful Information Demonstration of Estimating Software Other Estimating Issues Estimating in a Global Environment

5 Course Details Title : Advanced Cost Estimation, Validation and Risk Management Date : 11th - 15th Nov 2013 Location : Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia INVESTMENT PACKAGES Investment Package * Prices include lunches, refreshments and materials. * Important: Please note that registration without payment will incur a SGD 200 administration fee. 1st Delegate Name 2nd Delegate Name 3rd Delegate Name DELEGATES DETAILS Attention Invoice to: Fax: Company: Industry : Address: Postcode: Country: Please note: - Indicate if you have already registered by Phone Fax Web - If you have not received an acknowledgement before the training, please call us to confirm your booking. PAYMENT METHODS By Credit Card : Please debit my credit card: Visa MasterCard Card Number: Name printed on card: Deadline INVOICE DETAILS FULL MASTERCLASS 21st Oct th Oct 2013 Standard Price 8th Nov 2013 SGD $ 5,995 AMEX s Ms Dr Others Security Code: Expiry Date: By Direct Transfer : Please quote invoice number(s) on remittance advice PetroSync LLP Bank details: Account Name: PetroSync LLP Bank Number: 7144 Branch Code: 013 Account No: Name of Correspondent Bank : Standard Chartered Bank, 6 Battery Road, Singapore SWIFT Code of Correspondent Bank: SCBLSGSGXXX All bank charges to be borne by payer. Please ensure that PetroSync LLP receives the full invoiced amount. s Ms Dr Others s Ms Dr Others PROGRAMME CONSULTANT Name : Cay Aagen registration@petrosync.com Phone : Fax : TERMS AND CONDITIONS DISCLAIMER Please note that trainers and topics were confirmed at the time of publishing; however, PetroSync may necessitate substitutions, alterations or cancellations of the trainers or topics. As such, PetroSync reserves the right to change or cancel any part of its published programme due to unforeseen circumstances. Any substitutions or alterations will be updated on our web page as soon as possible. DATA PROTECTION The information you provide will be safeguarded by PetroSync that may be used to keep you informed of relevant products and services. As an international group we may transfer your data on a global basis for the purpose indicated above. If you do not want us to share your information with other reputable companies, please tick this box CANCELLATION POLICY You may substitute delegates at any time as long as reasonable advance notice is given to PetroSync. For any cancellation received in writing not less than fourteen (14) working days prior to the training course, you will receive credit voucher less a SGD $200 administration fee and any related bank or credit card charges. Delegates who cancel less than fourteen (14) working days of the training course, or who do not attend the course, are liable to pay the full course fee and no refunds will be granted. In the event that PetroSync cancels or postpones an event for any reason and that the delegate is unable or unwilling to attend in on the rescheduled date, you will receive a credit voucher for 100% of the contract fee paid. You may use this credit voucher for another PetroSync to be mutually agreed with PetroSync, which must occur within a year from the date of postponement. PetroSync is not responsible for any loss or damage as a result of the cancellation policy. PetroSync will assume no liability whatsoever in the event this event is cancelled, rescheduled or postponed due to any Act of God, fire, act of government or state, war, civil commotion, insurrection, embargo, industrial action, or any other reason beyond management control. DETAILS Please accept our apologies for mail or that is incorrectly addressed. Please us at registration@petrosync.com and inform us of any incorrect details. We will amend them accordingly. CHARGES & FEE(s) - For Payment by Direct TelegraphicTransfer, client has to bear both local and oversea bank charges. - For credit card payment, there is additional 4% credit card processsing fee. Confirmation I agree to PetroSync s terms & conditions,payment terms and cancellation policy. Authorized Signature : PAYMENT TERMS : Payment is due in full at the time of registration. Full payment is mandatory for event attendance.