Ecological Studies, Vol. 152

Transcription

1 Ecological Studies, Vol. 152 Analysis and Synthesis Edited by M.M. Caldwell, Logan, USA G. Heldmaier, Marburg, Germany O.L. Lange, Wurzburg, Germany H.A. Mooney, Stanford, USA E.-D. Schulze, lena, Germany U. Sommer, Kiel, Germany I. T. Baldwin, lena, Germany

2 Ecological Studies Volumes published since 1995 are listed at the end of this book. Springer Science+ Business Media, LLC

3 F. Stuart Chapin III Osvaldo E. Sala Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald Editors Global Biodiversity in a Changing Environment Scenarios for the 21st Century With 35 Figures, 7 in Full Color i Springer

4 F. Stuart Chapin III Institute of Arctic Biology University of Alaska Fairbanks, AK USA Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald Departmento de Ingenieria Ambiental y Manejo de Recursos Naturales Instituto Potosino de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnol6gicas San Luis Potosi, SLP Mexico Osvaldo E. Sala Department of Ecology and IFEVA Faculty of Agronomy University of Buenos Aires and CONICET Buenos Aisres, 1417 Argentina Cover illustration: A map of a scenario of the expected change in biodiversity for the year See Figure Reprinted with permission from Sala, O.E., et al. 2000, Globa! biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100, Science 287: American Association for the Advancement of Science. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Global biodiversity in a changing environment: scenarios for the 21st century/editors, F. Stuart Chapin III, Osvaldo E. Sala, Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald. p. cm.-(ecological studies; v. 152) ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / Biologica! diversity. 2. Climatic changes-environmental aspects. 1. Chapin, F. Stuart (Francis Stuart), III. II. Sala, Osvaldo E. III. Huber-Sannwald, Elisabeth. IV. Series. QH B dc Printed on acid-free paper Springer Science+Business Media New York Originally published by Springer-Verlag New York, Inc in 2001 Softcover reprint ofthe hardcover 18t edition 2001 All rights reserved. This work may not be translated or copied in whole or in part without the written permission ofthe publisher (Springer Science+Business Media, LLC), except for brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis. Use in connection with any form of information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dis similar methodology now known or hereafter developed is forbidden. The use of general descriptive names, trade names, trademarks, etc., in this publication, even if the former are not especially identified, is not to be taken as a sign that such names, as understood by the Trade Marks and Merchandise Marks Act, may accordingly be used freely byanyone. Production coordinated by Chemow Editorial Services, Inc., and managed by Tim Taylor; manufacturing supervised by Erica Bresler. Typeset by Best-set Typesetter Ltd., Hong Kong ISSN ISBN

5 Preface The scientific community has voiced two general concerns about the future of the Earth. Climatologists and oceanographers have focused on the changes in our physical environment~hanges in the climate, the oceans, and the chemistry of the air that we breathe. These concerns led to major environmental treaties such as the Convention on Climate Change and the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. A second general concern addresses issues of conservation and the extinction of species. This, too, has been addressed internationally through the Convention on Biological Diversity; however, there is increasing evidence that these two broad concerns are intertwined and mutually dependent. Past changes in the biodiversity of the Earth have both responded to and caused changes in the Earth's environment. An assessment by the United Nations Environment Programme has documented the current status and large recent changes in the Earth's biodiversity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has compiled scenarios of changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and land use. These scenarios have had considerable impact on national and international policies aimed at reducing these global changes or mitigating their impacts on society. Despite the large magnitude and societal importance of past changes in biodiversity, however, there have been no comparable scenarios of how the biodiversity of the Earth may change in response to global changes in environment. v

6 vi Preface The purpose of this book is to develop future scenarios of biodiversity for the next century in 10 terrestrial biomes and in freshwater ecosystems based on global scenarios of changes of the environment and the understanding by ecological experts of the sensitivity of biomes to these global changes. The scenarios presented in this book are not intended to be predictions; however, we hope that they will provide a starting point for careful assessments that must be made at national and regional scales. These regional assessments would provide a basis for planning future policy and research. The book is based on a workshop supported by the u.s. National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) and the InterAmerican Institute for Global Change Research in which experts on biodiversity change were assembled for the major terrestrial biomes of the world. This exercise stems from an activity of the Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE) core project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). F. Stuart Chapin III Osvaldo E. Sala Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald

7 Contents Preface Contributors v IX 1. The Future of Biodiversity in a Changing World F. Stuart Chapin III, Osvaldo E. Sala, Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald, and Rik Leemans 2. Modeling the Response of Vegetation Distribution and Biodiversity to Climate Change 5 Martin T. Sykes and Alex Haxeltine 3. The Use of Global-Change Scenarios to Determine Changes in Species and Habitats 23 Rik Leemans 4. Soil Biodiversity 47 Diana H. Wall, Gina Adams, and Andrew N. Parsons 5. Scenarios of Biodiversity Changes in Arctic and Alpine Tundra 83 Marilyn D. Walker, William A. Gould, and F. Stuart Chapin III Vll

8 Vlll Contents 6. Boreal Forest 101 F. Stuart Chapin III and Kjell Danell 7. Temperate Grasslands 121 Osvaldo E. Sala 8. Tropical Savanna 139 Brian Walker 9. Mediterranean-Climate Ecosystems 157 Harold A. Mooney, Mary T. Kalin Arroyo, William 1. Bond, Josep Canadell, Richard 1. Hobbs, Sandra Lavorel, and Ronald P. Neilson 10. Deserts 201 Laura Foster Huenneke 11. Temperate Forests of North and South America 223 Juan 1. Armesto, R. Rozzi, and 1. Caspersen 12. Tropical Forests 251 Rodolfo Dirzo 13. Lakes 277 David M. Lodge 14. Fish Diversity in Streams and Rivers 315 N. LeRoy Poff, Paul L. Angermeier, Scott D. Cooper, P.S. Lake, Kurt D. Fausch, Kirk O. Winemiller, Leal A.K. Mertes, Mark W Oswood, James Reynolds, and Frank 1. Rahel 15. Potential Biodiversity Change: Global Patterns and Biome Comparisons 351 Osvaldo E. Sala, F. Stuart Chapin III, and Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald Index 369

9 Contributors Gina Adams PaulL. Angermeier Juan J. Armesto Mary T. Kalin Arroyo William J. Bond Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA U.S. Geological Survey, Virginia Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit and Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA , USA Laboratoria Sistematica and Ecologia Vegetal, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile and Instituto de Investigaciones Ecologicas Chile, Ancud, Chile Departamento de Biologia, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile Department of Botany, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7700, South Africa IX

10 x Josep Canadell J. Caspersen F. Stuart Chapin III Scott D. Cooper Kjell Danell Rodolfo Dirzo Kurt D. Fausch William A. Gould Alex Haxeltine Richard J. Hobbs Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald Laura Foster Huenneke P.S. Lake Contributors CSIRO, Division of Wildlife and Ecology, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA Department of Animal Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, S Umea, Sweden Instituto de Ecologia, UNAM, Mexico City D.F., Mexico Department of Fishery and Wildlife Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO , USA Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA Climate Impacts Group, Plant Ecology, Department of Ecology, Ekologihuset, Lund University, Lund, Sweden CSIRO, Division of Wildlife and Ecology, LMB 4, P.O. Midland, Western Australia 6056, Australia Departmento de Ingenieria Ambiental y Manejo de Recursos Naturales, Instituto Potosino de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnol6gicas, San Luis Potosi, SLP Mexico Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003, USA Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria 3168, Australia

11 Contributors Xl Sandra Lavorel Rik Leemans David M. Lodge Leal A.K. Mertes Harold A. Mooney Ronald P. Neilson Mark W Oswood Andrew N. Parsons N. LeRoy Poff Frank J. Rahel James Reynolds R. Rozzi Centre Ecologie Fonctionnelle Evolutive, CNRS UPR 9056, Montpellier, Cedex 5, France Department of Global Environmental Assessment, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN , USA Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA , USA Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA USDA Forest Service, Forest Sciences Lab, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA Department of Biology and Wildlife and Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO , USA Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO , USA Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA

12 Xll Osvaldo E. Sala Martin T. Sykes Brian Walker Marilyn D. Walker Diana H. Wall Kirk O. Winemiller Contributors Department of Ecology and IFEVA, Faculty of Agronomy, University of Buenos Aires and CONICET, Buenos Aires, 1417, Argentina Climate Impacts Group, Plant Ecology, Department of Ecology, Ekologihuset, Lund University, Lund, Sweden CSIRO, Division of Wildlife and Ecology, Lyneham, ACT 2602, Australia Boreal Ecology Cooperative Research Unit, USDA Forest Service, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO , USA Department of Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX , USA