Ilia Ilyin, EMEP/MSC-E

Transcription

1 Evaluation of pollution levels of lead and PCB-153 over Central Asian (CA) countries within CAPACT project (preliminary results) Ilia Ilyin,

2 Expected results Evaluation of air concentrations and total depositions of lead and PCBs over CA countries Contributions of regions of the Northern Hemisphere to pollution of CA countries by PCBs and contribution of CA countries to the pollution of other regions. Вклады различных регионов Evaluation of transboundary pollution of CA countries by lead

3 Model versions Regional model Extent EMEP region Resolution км 2 EMEP reion Hemispheric model Extent Northern Hemisphere Resolution

4 Multicompartment MSCE-POP model Atmosphere Underlying surface Detailed desription: Gusev A., Mantseva E., Shatalov V., and Strukov B Regional Multicompartment Model MSCE-POP 5/2005

5 Emissions of PCB-153 in 2005 Input data Breivik et al, 2007., Science of the Total Environ., 377, p

6 PCB-153 emissions in different regions of the Northern Hemisphere in Input data South-Eastern Asia Russia South- Western Казахстан Asia t / y America Europe Africa 0 Europe Americas Russia South-East. Asia Africa Sourth-West. Asia Central Asia

7 Model results Annual mean air concentrations of PCB-153 in 2005

8 Depositions of PCB-153 in 2005 Model results

9 Transboundary pollution of Kazakhstan by PCB-153 South-Eastern Asia Europe 32% America 4% Africa 1% South- West. Asia 15% Russia South- Western Казахстан Asia America Europe Africa South- East. Asia 26% Russia 1% Kazahstan 21% Planned: evaluation of transboundary pollution for each of Central Asia countries

10 Main processes in MSCE-HM model Detailed description: Processes: Advection Turbulent diffusion Wet removal Dry depositions Chemical transformations in the atmosphere (Hg) Wind re-suspension Travnikov O. and Ilyin I., Regional model MSCE-HM of heavy metal transboundary air pollution in Europe. Technical report 6/2005

11 EMEP calculation domain 135 EMEP domain Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan

12 Extension of EMEP calculation domain to cover CA countries within CAPACT 135 Extended calculation domain Preparation of input data: Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Land-cover Meteorology Emissions Turkmenistan Tajikistan

13 Input data Emissions of lead in Europe and Central Asia in 2005 Region Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan Europe Remaining Asia and Africa Data source TNO 2005 GEIA (1990) Official EMEP data of TNO estimates GEIA (1990) Additional assumptions Interpolation between 2000 and 2010 Reduction rate from 1990 to as for Russia Reduction rate from 1990 to as for Turkey

14 Input data Total emission of lead in Central Asian countries in ~4000 t/y EMEP (without Remaining Asia Russia Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan t/y

15 Input data Spatial distribution of lead emissions in 2005

16 Wind re-suspension Input data Comparison of emissions from anthropogenic sources and wind resuspension in Central Asian countries (Pb) Anthropogenic emissions ~ 840 t/y ~ 970 t/y

17 Modelling results Annual mean concentrations of lead in air in 2005

18 Modelling results Air concentrations of lead Total emissions of lead (anthrop. and wind re-suspension)

19 Modelling results Total depositions of lead in 2005

20 Modelling results Transboundary pollution in Central Asia Contributions of different sources to depositions in Kazakhstan

21 Modelling results Transboundary pollution in Central Asia Contributions of different sources to depositions in Kyrgyzstan

22 Modelling results Transboundary pollution in Central Asia Contributions of different sources to depositions in Tajikistan

23 Modelling results Transboundary pollution in Central Asia Contributions of different sources to depositions in Turkmenistan

24 Modelling results Transboundary pollution in Central Asia Contributions of different sources to depositions in Uzbekistan

25 Current status and future plans Modification of MSCE-HM model to include Central Asian countries into modelling domain Completed Input data preparation Completed Calculations of mean annual concentrations of lead and depositions for 2005 Estimation of annual transboundary transport of lead within CA region for 2005 Completed Completed

26 Evaluation of mean annual concentrations of PCB-153 in air and total annual depositions over CA region for 2005 Evaluation of annual transboundary transport of PCB-153 within CA region in 2005 Report in Russian and English; Publishing in the Internet at MSC-E site ( Preliminary results Preliminary results for Kazakhstan September 15

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