Climate Change and Its Ecological Effects on BC s Coastal Forests
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1 Climate Change and Its Ecological Effects on BC s Coastal Forests Heather Klassen Sari Saunders Andy MacKinnon MFLNR - Coast Research Ecology February 26, 2015
2 Outline What IS climate change and what will it look like on the coast? How does climate change affect forests and forest management? What research is being done to understand climate change and its impacts? What tools are available to interpret climate change and guide operations?
3 Climate Change is not a new issue... Characterizing Climate Change Providing Operational Guidance
4 What is Climate Change? Change to central tendencies Generally wetter winters Generally warmer summers Changes to variability Greater extremes occurring more often Changes at multiple scales Regional (e.g., BEC variant) Subregional (e.g., a watershed) Site level Interactions across levels of climate influence Carpenter et al CGCM3.1 A2 emissions scenario
5 Detecting and Characterizing Climate Change Climate data Baseline data, monitoring, model verification PCIC Climate station network Interpolated/modelled spatial layers (current) ClimateBC/ClimateWNA Projections (future) IPCC PCIC ClimateBC
6 Predicting and Projecting Climate Change Across Scales Provincial- BEC BGC zone/variant level (Wang et al.) Transboundary - US PNW, SE AK (MacKenzie et al.) Strathcona TSA (Jones) Species Tree species (and ecosystems) (Gray; Rehfeldt; Iverson) Dry coastal species (CDFmm and CWHxm) (Klassen) Seed source and deployment zones (O Neill) Plant hardiness zones (CFS - McKenney) (Jones 2008) Site level/site types Sayward Forest (Dunbar & Dymond) Dry south coast climate change project (MFLNR)
7 Climate Change Impacts on Forests and Landscapes Regional climate (distributions of BEC units) Shift of units upward in elevation? Loss of alpine? Potential species ranges (bioclimate envelopes) Ecosystem processes Regeneration Productivity Competition Decomposition (nutrient turnover, availability, storage) Disturbance regimes (wind, landslide, flood, fire) Hydrological regimes *Greater uncertainty Nature of the landscape Response to management and to other disturbances
8 Climate Change Research Modelling Bioclimate Envelopes for BEC Variants Geographic distribution of BEC zones using consensus of 20 climate change scenarios Model agreement varies in time and across BEC units Wang et al. 2012
9 Climate Change Research Modelling Distributions of Species or Site Series Projections of bioclimate envelopes suggest that tree species will respond differently across space and time with projected changes to climate Some may decline (Bg) While others thrive (Mb) Klassen 2012 Trends in projections of productivity vary across species and site types in the Strathcona Forest Surprising results for these cooler site types? Models suggest hypotheses for structured field research Carpenter, et al. 2014
10 Climate Change Research field projects Dry South Coast Ecosystems Climate Change Project Quantification of climate-site-vegetation relationships understanding dynamics of complex systems assessing ecosystem and landscape-level models of resilience Basis for testable hypotheses and prediction of potential changes to these ecosystems under cumulative stress Recommendations for attributes that can be monitored in the field as indicators of climate shift
11 Climate Change Research field projects Coast Experimental Watersheds Project (CEWs) Retrospective and experimental work by physiographic unit and hydrologic regime (anticipate homogeneous response to climate change) Geomorphic and fluvial disturbance Hydrological regime High elevation weather stations detection of change and validation of models
12 Climate Change Research lots of related initiatives are underway on the coast! FLNR tree breeding programme Ectomycorrhizal spatial ecology and implications for assisted migration (Kranabetter et al. 2014) Evolutionary responses of tree populations to climate change and experimental tree planting (high elevations), Aitken lab, UBC
13 Forest Management Under Climate Change - Strategic Guidance Chief Forester s Memo on Stand and Landscape Level Species Composition (2009) FLNR Forest Stewardship Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation( ) FLNR Climate Action Roadmap (2013) FLNR Climate Change Strategy ( ) FLNR Coast Climate Change Action Plan Threats, vulnerabilities Impacts Actions (mitigation and adaptation)
14 Climate Change Operational Tools - updates to BEC classification, mapping, interpretations Changes to climate, changes to technology, changes to management Climate data Mapping software Modelling techniques BEC updates - use of climate data with plot data Revised classification Refined mapping
15 Climate Change Operational Tools tree species diversity across scales Maintain ability of an ecosystem to respond to environmental change (including climate change) Reduce ecosystem vulnerability to any single future disturbance event Improve the potential for an ecosystem to reorganize following disturbance (maintain function)
16 A Diversity Approach Would... Promote and accept a wider range of management intents Encourage species mixes Reduce levels of species conversion in landscape Consider uncertainty and climate change in species selection Reduce efforts to bring all stands to a uniform standard Encourage experimentation and adaptive management Evaluate success at a landscape scale to allow variable management at the stand level Evaluate success over longer time scales
17 Climate Change Operational Tools Tree Species Selection Tool Ecological suitability (by BEC unit) Coniferous or deciduous tree species that are adapted to a site s environmental conditions, including the variability in these conditions that may occur over time. Landscape level diversity guidance
18 Tree species diversity - Stand Scale Tree Species Diversity: Reduces: risk of complete stand failure pest outbreak severity Enhances: stand yield in a changing environment structural attributes of habitat diversity range of forest products
19 Tree species diversity - Landscape Scale Landscape Level Diversity: Reduces: Cumulative effects of individual stand-level decisions risk of widespread losses from species-specific pests spread and impact of other natural disturbances (e.g., fire) W. MacKenzie Enhances: flexibility in stand management while meeting broader targets feasibility of evaluating experimental options
20 Operational Tools Climate based Considerations for Tree Species Selection Bayesian Belief Network Tool Evaluating suitable species mixes at the stand scale given BEC site series and future climate scenarios Climate based seed transfer Based on analysis of the climate of source provenance and climate projections of deployment locations (O Neill)
21 Opportunities for Collaboration Field Data BEC plots Mensuration Microclimate Suggestions for BEC mapping and classification improvements Observations of climate change impacts Adaptive management approaches Joint development of experiments
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