Disaster Risk Management in the Face of Climate Change

Transcription

1 Disaster Risk Management in the Face of Climate Change Dr. K. C. Paudel Secretary, MoSTE

2 Climate Change: Global Trends IPCC assessment reports: Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial levels. The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 2005 (379 ppm) exceeds by far the natural range of the last 650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm). The amount of methane in the atmosphere in 2005 (1774 ppb) exceeds by far the natural range of the last 650,000 years (320 to 790 ppb). The primary source of the increase in carbon dioxide is fossil fuel use, but land-use changes also make a contribution.

3 CO2 in atmosphere

4 Increase of Sea Level for different CO 2 -Scenarios Quelle: Rahmstorf (2007), Science, 315, cm A1FI B1 50 cm *Basis: Range of ΔT = 1.5º-5.8ºC (IPCC TAR)

5 Number Global natural disasters Geophysical, meteorological, hydrological events Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) Meteorological events (Storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Trend line Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE

6 Global trend (contd..) Cold days, cold nights, and frost events have become less frequent. Hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent. Additionally: Eleven of the twelve years in the period ( ) rank among the top 12 warmest years in the instrumental record (since 1880). Warming in the last 100 years has caused about a 0.74 C increase in global average temperature. Observations since 1961 show that the ocean has been absorbing more than 80% of the heat added to the climate system, and that ocean temperatures have increased to depths of at least 3000 m.

7 Global trend (contd..) Many of the associated impacts such as sea level change have occurred since 1950 at rates unprecedented in the historical record. There is a clear human influence on the climate Longer we wait to reduce our emissions, the more expensive it will become.

8 Natural catastrophes 2008 Weather catastrophes in Asia Number of events Meteorological events (Storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE As at September 2009 Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)

9 Trends in South Asia The IPCC (fifth assessment report): Numbers of cold days and nights have decreased and the numbers of warm days and nights have increased Heat wave frequency has increased Rainfall trends: more extreme rainfall events and fewer weak rainfall events. Dengue and Japanese encephalitis outbreaks associated with temperature and rainfall. Malaria prevalence in India and Nepal linked to rainfall patterns. Climate related risks threaten lives, food security, health and wellbeing. Higher the elevation higher the impact of CC.

10 Temperature ( C) All Nepal temperature trend y = x R 2 = All Nepal Temperature is increasing steadily About 1.8 C increase from Source: Baidya et al., 2008 Year

11 National Trend Nepal Responsible for lest emission (only 0.025%) Consistent warming and rise in the maximum temperature (annual rate of degree Celsius). Observed warming trend is not uniform across the country. Warming is more pronounced in high altitude regions There has been increase in average temperature by 1.8 C within 32 years between 1975 and 2006 in Nepal (Baidya et al., 2008) The Climate Change Risk Atlas 2010 ranked Nepal as the 4 th most vulnerable country worldwide

12 Climate Change Evidences

13 Examples of Worst Natural disasters Earthquake, Haiti, 2010, Over 200,000 deaths Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar, 2008, Over 84,500 deaths

14 Tōhoku Earthquake and Tsunami, Japan, 2011, Over deaths and 250,00 building destroyed Earthquake, Pakistan, 2005, Over 75,000 deaths Hurricane Katrina, USA, 2005 Indian Ocean Earthquake, Indonesia, India, Srilanka, Over 300,000 deaths

15 African Drought, 9.5 m children affected North Korean Feminine, From 1994, Over 0.8 m malnourished Yangze River Flood, China, 1931, Over 3.7 m people killed Spanish Influenza, 1918, Over 20 m killed

16 Nepal Earthquake, 2015, Around 9000 deaths Flood, regular phenomena Blizzards and avalanches

17 Paris Conference: Overview Formal sessions: COP21, CMP11, SBI43, SBSTA 43, ADP 2-13 Leaders event (30 Nov) with participation of 150 Head of states/government; and High-level segment (7-8 Dec) Several side-events and other activities More than 40,000 participants Adoption of the Paris Agreement on 12 Dec, one day after the planned date (11 Dec)

18 Paris Agreement Long term temperature goal Art 2:. Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels Long term mitigation target Global peaking of global GHG as soon as possible to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of GHG in the second half of this century, on the basis of equity, and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty.

19 Paris Agreement Mitigation (Art 4, 5, 6) Developed country to take lead, developing country to continue enhance mitigation effort Forest related activities including REDD plus acknowledged Provisions for Cooperative approaches for the use of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes and share of the proceeds

20 Paris Agreement Adaptation (Art 7) global goal on adaptation of enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability NAPs recognized as one of the tools to communicate adaptation needs

21 Loss and Damage under UNFCCC Warsaw International Mechanism on L&D strengthened An Executive Committee established and operationalizing its activities Function and key focus: 1. Enhancing the Risk Management Approach (by addressing gaps in the understanding and developing expertise) collecting, managing and using relative data and information overviewing the past experiences and best practices to address the issue 2. Strengthening dialogue, coordination, coherence, synergies among relevant stakeholders; and making recommendations 3. Providing Financial and Technical support and Exchange of Information among the Parties and other stakeholders

22 Paris Agreement Finance(Art9) Developed country to provide financial resources to assist developing country Parties, other country to continue voluntary support Special prioritization, including simplified approval procedures and enhanced readiness support for LDCs & SIDS Finance mobilization should represent a progression beyond previous efforts, earlier committed 100 bn to be scaled-up, Global Stock take (Art 14) To taking periodically stock of the implementation of the Agreement and its long term goal First stock take in 2023 and every five years thereafter

23 Nepal s engagement in COP 21. Regular engagement at LDC and G77 meetings Statement by Hon. Minister at the High-level segment Number of interventions and delivery of statement Regular interventions and submissions highlighting concerns of mountainous country Presentation and participations Nairobi Work Programme focal point forum: Nepal s NCCSP acknowledged (top 5/170); CTCN and Mountain EBA South-South Cooperation LDC coordination NAP and LEG LDC Financing; Landlocked countries; climate change and migration etc.

24 Disaster Risk Management Framework Derived from Hyogo Framework for Action Governance and Organizational Coordination and Cooperation Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Historical hazard data, analysis and changing hazard trends Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk quantification PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems, emergency planning and response capacities MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. building resilient infrastructure) Catastrophe (CAT) insurance CAT bonds Alternative Risk Transfer mechanisms Other emerging products Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training

25 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Priorities for Action Reduction ( ) Taking into consideration the experience gained through the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA), the Sendai Framework adopted the notion of priorities for action that were included in the HFA. The Sendai Framework includes four priorities and seven targets: Priorities 1. Understanding disaster risk; 2. Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk; 3. Investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience; 4. Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response

26 Targets of Sendai Framework Seven targets have been incorporated in the framework: 1. Substantially reduce global disaster risk mortality by 2030; 2. Substantially reduce the number of affected people globally by 2030; 3. Reduce direct disaster economic loss in relation to global gross domestic product by 2030; 4. Substantially reduce disaster damage to critical infrastructure and disruption of basic services, among them health and educational facilities;

27 Targets of Sendai Framework (Contd..) 5. Substantially increase the number of countries with national and local disaster risk reduction strategies by 2020; 6. Substantially enhance international cooperation to developing countries through adequate and sustainable support to complement their national actions for the implementation of the present framework by 2030; and 7. Substantially increase the availability of an access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to people by 2030

28 Disaster Risks in Nepal Nepal is : 20 th topmost disaster prone 4 th in climate change vulnerability 11 th in earthquake vulnerability 30 th in flood vulnerability Kathmandu valley is exposed to the greatest earthquake risk among 21 megacities in the world

29 Major frequent disasters in Nepal Flood Windstorm Landslide Earthquake Fire Thunderbolt Hailstone Epidemics Drought GLOF Avalanches

30 Major Policies to Response Disaster Natural Calamity (Relief) Act, 1982 Prime Minister Natural Calamity Rescue Fund Local Self Governance Act, 1999 National Strategy for DRM 2009/2014 District Disaster Preparedness Plans Sectoral policies and plans

31 Government Institutions, Procedures for DRR The Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA) is designated as the lead agency responsible for implementation of the Natural Calamity (Relief) Act, 1982 MoHA responsible for rescue and relief works, data collection and dissemination of funds and resources Central Natural Disaster Rescue Committee (CNDRC), chaired by the Home Minister, is accountable for preparing and ensuring implementation of national response policies

32 Nepalese initiatives for CCA National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) Climate Change Policy, 2011 LAPA Framework Climate Change Budget Code, 2012 Implementation of LAPA through NCCSP and other organisations (PPCR, EBA etc) NAP now prioritized Mountain agenda

33 Institutional arrangements MoSTE as a focal point for climate change Climate Change Council, 2009 Climate Change Management Division Multi stakeholder Climate Change Initiatives Coordination Committee (MCCICC), 2010 District and Village level environment, energy climate change coordination committee established through NCCSP

34 Ways Forward Climate change a global challenge to be faced Resilience building is must Adaptation to be a central focus to reduce vulnerability and increase resiliency DRR as a solution beyond adaptation (local, national, regional and international) UNFCCC agreements both obligations and Opportunities CC and DRR need harmony for effective implementation

35 A hazard in itself is not a disaster. It has the potential to become one when it happens to populations who have certain vulnerabilities and insufficient capacity to respond to it. The potential or probability of a hazard becoming a disaster is called risk. Disaster risk reduction / disaster risk management is about avoiding these risks (prevention) or limiting them (preparedness / mitigation), by focusing on a population s vulnerabilities and capacities

36 Climate Change and Hazards IPCC reports indicate that climate change will alter risk patterns in several ways: Increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, such as temperature extremes, storms, floods and droughts; Hazard impact in areas that do not have experience with such hazards; Increase in vulnerability as underlying risk factors are compounded by climate-change-specific hazards, such as sea-level rise and glacier melt. Climate change exacerbates the frequency and intensity of hydro meteorological disasters (IPCC, 2007) The incidence of some extreme events is expected to increase, such us: high temperature, floods, drought, soil moisture deficit, fires and pest outbreak (IPCC, 2007)

37 DRR and CCA: Focus on the similarities CCA Is an actual adjustment, or modification in decision environment which aim to enhance resiliency of the community or to reduce vulnerability to the climate change risks (IPCC, 2007) DRR Comprises a range of activities undertaken to minimize vulnerabilities and disaster risk, limit impact of hazards, within the broad context of sustainable development (UNISDR, 2008) Similarities Similar aims Mutual benefits Both promote changes in policies, laws, training, and education Both need involvement of all stakeholders Differences Disaster risk reduction engages with a broader range of disaster Different institutions (UNFCCC and HFA) DRR more concerned with recent hazard, meanwhile CCA future hazard or new potential risks DRR more practical application, CCA more theoretical application.

38 Develop the linkages Disaster risk reduction Climate change adaptation To build a more resilient and safer community

39 Effective Early Warning Systems National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms are critical to ensure emergency planning and response involving 4 technical components

40 National context: Institutional mechanism Response Institutions involved 1 Hazard data and forecast DHM, MOHA 2 Risk information Cross cutting 3 Communication and dissemination mechanism MOHA, MOSTE, DHM, PM Office, MOICT 4 Preparedness and early response MOHA, MOSTE, MOHP, Regional administration, Local bodies 5 Mitigation and action to respond Development Ministries

41 Choice of options 1. Ministry of Disaster risk reduction and Climate Change 2. A coordination body with a project approach with pool of expert in one place 3. Dedicate role to all relevant institution with shared responsibility

42 THANK YOU

43 Climate Change and Disaster Risk Increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters pose serious challenge to the sustainability of development investments and the stability of economic growth in the region. Floods = one of the most recurrent disaster events, which destroy development progress and hinder economic stability Nepal and the South Asia region is highly vulnerable to climate change, with population highly dependent on natural resources i.e. water, biodiversity & reliance on climatesensitive agricultural sector and concentration of people and economic activity in coastal zones. IPCC report indicates expected rise in temperatures rapidly. Global average temperature has already increased by 0.85 degree Celsius, whereas Nepal average temperature has increased by 1.85 degree Celsius.

44 Climate Change and Disaster Risk Increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters pose serious challenge to the sustainability of development investments and the stability of economic growth in the region. Floods = one of the most recurrent disaster events, which destroy development progress and hinder economic stability Nepal and the South Asia region is highly vulnerable to climate change, with population highly dependent on natural resources i.e. water, biodiversity & reliance on climatesensitive agricultural sector and concentration of people and economic activity in coastal zones. IPCC report indicates expected rise in temperatures rapidly. Global average temperature has already increased by 0.85 degree Celsius, whereas Nepal average temperature has increased by 1.85 degree Celsius.

45 Types of climate-related natural disasters Two types of impact from climate change: Longer term, spread of disease and sea level rise Immediate obvious impacts, intense rain and flooding. Extreme temperature highs heat waves Storms, including windstorms, hurricanes, etc. High levels of precipitation, and associated flooding Lack of precipitation, and associated drought

46 Different understandings of vulnerability Hyogo Framework - DRR vulnerability to disasters is a function of human actions and behaviour vulnerability describes the degree to which a socioeconomic system is susceptible or resilient to the impact of natural hazards degree of vulnerability is determined by hazard awareness, condition of human settlements and infras-tructure, public policy, abilities in disaster management. Poverty is seen as a main cause of vulnerability. UNFCCC Climate change vulnerability derives from physical exposure, geological and natural attributes, regardless of socio-economic systems Socio-economic challenges add to this vulnerability