AIRPACT and ClearSky Activity Report

Transcription

1 AIRPACT and ClearSky Activity Report Joe Vaughan and Brian Lamb NW-AIRQUEST Quarterly Meeting February 3, 2011 Sand Point NOAA Base, Seattle

2 WSU Report Topics AIRPACT Status ( 19 slides ) ClearSky Status ( 7 slides ) Earth System Model proposal (4) also Heping Liu, introduction STAR Climate Project (Brian and Serena)

3 AIRPACT Status Topics Contract period: July June 2011 GOALS WORKPLAN DELIVERABLES Other AIRPACT related activity / progress

4 AIRPACT GOALS Improve Model Performance Support of analyses (Nitrate in Basin, Boise Study) Maintain AIRNow data stream Maintained Keep 2 years of results available graphically Original graphics since 6/08 & Flash since 3/09. Keep 2 weeks of gridded output files Kept! Archival/backup performed monthly. Consult with NW-AIRQUEST on improvements Responsive to NW-AIRQUEST consultation?

5 AIRPACT WORKPLAN Provide daily forecasts and real-time verification statistics and access to underlying data. Update emissions inventory and processing: SMOKE v2.4, New EI, SMARTFIRE, and Woodstove experiments. Update CMAQ to 4.7 Implement a Change Log Identify New Users Reports on progress and state of model

6 AIRPACT SMOKE v2.7 being used for AIRPACT-4 New EI files being used for AIRPACT-4 SMARTFIRE (work partially complete but issues) Woodstove experiments. To be revisited. m3combo? CMAQ update to for AIRPACT-4 Change Log -- Implemented online for both AIRPACT- 3 and AIRPACT-4 at sites.google.com/site/airpactchangelog Change log is linked to AIRPACT sidebar.

7 AIRPACT Deliverables Graphical AQ fcsts by 6 AM Daily (95%). Archival of runs and results. Semi-annual report submitted January 31, State-of-the-Model report due July 30, 2011.

8 AIRPACT Graphical AQ forecasts by 6 AM Daily (95%)? Network failures in scp Interprocess com fault in cluster Late-running WRF Disk space maxed out Library missing

9 AIRPACT Archival of runs and results: Graphics available online for 2 years plus. Archival conducted monthly at LAR: -- for 25 hrs of MCIP and CCTM output files --to removable drives (1.5 and 2 Tb) in usb-mounted disk-docks.

10 Presentation to the CMAS 2010 Conference 10/11/2010, Chapel Hill, NC Incorporation of Dynamic Boundary Louisa Emmons assimilates MOPITT CO for hours observed, Conditions globally, adjusting into MOZART-4 the run AIRPACT VCD CO throughout regional air profiles. quality forecast system AIRPACT gets hourly MOZART results for all species, all four boundaries, and converts to SAPRC chemistry. Joseph Vaughan, Serena Chung, Farren Herron-Thorpe, Brian Lamb, & Louisa Emmons (NCAR)

11 MBC May, 2010 Carbon Monoxide VCD Monthly Averages (2 p.m.) Baseline

12 Effect on Layer 1 Ozone from MBC scheme. Preliminary results for 16 PST August 18 Areas of max O3 show positive and negative differences. Redding, CA area shows less O3, but apparently not due to NOx titration. Went live Feb 1, (Really! You can go see the change log!)

13 Atmospheric Formaldehyde Sources in an Urban Winter Environment Farah Abedin, H.W. Wallace, M.H. Erickson, J. McCoskey, J. Vaughan, B.K. Lamb, B.T. Jobson Measurement of HCHO, CO and NOx permits comparison with AIRPACT-3 emissions and results. Laboratory for Atmospheric Research Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering Washington State University Model emissions are called into question by ratios of HCHO/CO and CO/NOx American Meteorological Society 13 th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry

14 Morning Rush Hour Correlations AVERAGE 3.50 ± 35% ppbv / ppmv

15 AIRPACT: PRIMARY HCHO vs. CO 0.47 ± 2% ppbv / ppmv 7.4 x smaller than measured ratio

16 CO versus NOx CO emissions 3 times too large in model? (MOBILE 6 ; 2005) What is the role of diesel engine emissions in determining CO / NOx ratio?

17 AIRPACT-4 Being developed by Serena Chung and Rodrigo Gonzalez-Abraham. Based on UW 4-km GFS 00Z WRF run. MCIP 3.6 SMOKE 2.7 using new EI CMAQ Graphics generation on aeolus: whether to use verdi or pave to generate graphics?

18 AIRPACT-3 and -4 Domains for Comparison

19 Other AIRPACT-related activity / progress EPA STAR Climate Change -- separate report by Lamb & Chung EPA Pollen Modeling: postdoc has been hired USDA WEPS: close to have a gridded version running for subset of AIRPACT domain

20 AIRPACT Deposition Modeling Uses daily air quality forecast simulations (AIRPACT-3) to examine N, S and Hg deposition for the Pacific Northwest Providing monthly deposition maps on the web 2008 and 2009 online now, 2010 coming soon.

21 AIRPACT-related projects & LAR EPA Climate Change (Chung, Gonzalez-Abraham, Lamb) EPA Pollen (Chung, Lamb & new-postdoc) USDA WEPS (Chung, Lamb, Vaughan & new-postdoc) New but continued NASA ROSES (Mount, Lamb, Herron-Thorpe, Vaughan) Un-officially New -- Earth System Modeling (everyone) Likely New -- Black Carbon (Chung, Lamb & other?) Graduate Training Programs with LAR: Atmospheric Policy Trajectory (APT) graduate program Nitrogen Systems: Policy-oriented Integrated Research and Education (NSPIRE) NSF IGERT (Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship) (End AIRPACT)

22 ClearSky Topics Work plan Deliverables

23 ClearSky Work Plan Deploy the ClearSky gaming tool Investigate FETS for: 1) automated reanalysis of burn days for model evaluation, 2) AIRPACT ICON use. Continue work on graphical web products and glossary. Identify and recruit new users Conduct a user survey Semi-annual report on status of ClearSky work Annual state-of-the-model report (Define plume parameters for slash pile and orchard burns.)

24 ClearSky Online Gaming Tool Daily overnight ClearSky run provides WRF-based Calmet-format meteorology. Gaming Tool supports rapid response field-burning plume dispersion simulations Uses interactive Google Map application Allows multiple burn sites Results in surface layer PM2.5 and winds shown as map animations for any of 14 sub-domains.

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26 esults Available in ~5 min notification contains: link to flash animation download link for pave animation scenario description concise CALPUFF log concise Game script log Flash animation: controls for speed toggles for overlays: PM2.5 roads-cities. winds zoom

27 ClearSky Work Plan -- activity Deployed for period of June - October burning season. Defaults: 12 on weekdays and 5 on weekends September: ~220 scenarios run October: ~330 scenarios run Investigated FETS for reanalysis of burn days and AIRPACT ICON use. But FETS usage is too delayed, may also still be too low. Continued work on graphical web products. Identified two new users in OR Still need to conduct a user survey & develop glossary Semi-annual report on status of ClearSky work (submitted)

28 ClearSky Timing in 2010

29 Deliverables - activity (those not covered in work plan) 2. The Semi-annual report must be provided to Project Sponsor for the periods ending November 30, 2010 and due on December 31, Report submitted 3. Enhanced graphical displays of web products are essential for completion of this contract. Discussions with AIRQUEST shall lead to an agreed upon graphical display. This deliverable has been substantially accomplished. Also, users are provided with access to a web-page that provides access to all ClearSky defaults, others defaults as well as their own.

30 ClearSky Gaming Status

31 ClearSky Gaming Status Functionality: Good Reliability: High Accuracy: Dubious Parameterization for plume rise that was found to be suitable for smaller area fields may be too buoyant for larger fields. (End ClearSky)

32 A NEW EARTH SYSTEM MODEL Proposed

33 THE TEAM 6 Institutions with WSU as Lead 18 Faculty 3 Postdoctoral Scholars 10 PhD Students 5 Working Groups

34 GOAL AND OBJECTIVES Overarching Goal: To improve the understanding of regional and decadal-scale C:N:H 2 O interactions in context of global change to better inform decision makers involved in natural and agricultural resource management. Specific Objectives: 1. Air to Land Linkage: To investigate the role that atmospheric processes play in land surface C:N:H 2 O cycles. 2. Coupled Air/Land: To explore how ecosystem changes in the PNW affect land/atmosphere interactions. 3. Coupled Air/Land/Human: To examine how potential policy changes might affect the interactions between C:N:H 2 O cycles and regional-scale climate. 4. Communication: To explore how to best communicate the model results to resource managers and policy makers.

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36 MAPPS, BIOEM3 natural vegetation distribution CCSM3, ECHAM5, or NCEP reanalysis global climate or meteorology (current, future, or reanalysis) WRF-CMAQ or WRF-Chem downscaled meteorology, nitrate & ammonium deposition Hg, S deposition O 3 concentrations latent & sensible heat fluxes water vapor flux surface albedo NO x,n 2 O, NH 3 fluxes CO 2 fluxes BVOC fluxes RHESSys (natural ecosystems) + CropSyst (ag ecosystems) with VIC (large scale hydrology) and MEGAN (BVOC emissions) water quantity and quality; NPP