Health Effects Modelisation of. Two Contrasted Transport. Policies - The Case of the Urban. Mobility Plan of Lille (F)

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Alan Hood
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1 Cliquez pour modifier le style du titre du masque Health Effects Modelisation of Cliquez pour modifier les styles du texte du masque Two Contrasted Transport Deuxième niveau Troisième niveau Mobility Plan of Lille (F) Quatrième niveau Cinquième niveau Policies - The Case of the Urban Rémy LAGACHE CETE NP / CEREA

The UMP (Urban Mobility Plan) of Lille Lille Métropole (city of almost 1.100.

2 The UMP (Urban Mobility Plan) of Lille Lille Métropole (city of almost inhabitants) adopted its UMP in June 2000 Aim by 2015 : doubling the use of public transport and bicycles stabilise car traffic for Métropole s inhabitants support walking Lille 2

3 Method implementation of a complex modelling chain comparison of the results expected from the orientations decided by 2015 (UMP scenario) with those observed in 1998 and a trend scenario (2015 also) validation of the models at each stage of the study by comparison of the 1998 results (validation year scenario) with measures (traffic counts, air quality analyzers) extensive dialogs between the models experts to take into account the exact needs of each thematic specialist 3

4 Modelling the traffic Traffic modelling was performed using the EMME/2 software (INRO 2005, 4 stages approach) for 24h of the standard day, Modeling of LV, LUV, HGV, Bus&Car and 2 wheeled vehicles, with special attention for cold start vehicles Study area : 324 internal sub-areas on which Origin/Destination data is identified and 7,603 sections representing 2,500 kilometres of roads, thus 30% of all infrastructures, but most of the total traffic Modelling the emissions Traffic scenario modelling results follow the COPERT III methodology input data (Ntziachristos 2000), rolling fleet from INRETS work (Bourdeau 1997) The traffic emissions are calculated for 24h*365days The others sources (great industrial sources, other anthropogenic and biogenic sources) are issue of bibliographical data (mainly EMEP), time distributions of the other-than-traffic sources are extract from the GENEMIS project 4

5 Modelling the dispersion Polair3D (CEREA 2005) model is adopted (CTM, Eulerian 3-D approach with the RACM chemical mechanism) 2 stages model process : a European run (boundary conditions : MOZART&GOCART models, Meteorological fields stem from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasting) re-analysis T511 spectral resolution) : this run compute the boundary conditions for the local run a local run (44*42 cells, 1 km² cell, centered on Lille) which provide the detailed results exploited by the following health impact model 5

6 Modelling the health impact For each given pollutant, an indicator of average exposure by LMCU s inhabitants was built up from the arithmetical mean of daily values measured by selected stations (INVS 2003), use of the PSAS-9 (Cassadou 2002) programme s phase II results and Künzli (2000) for the ozone, NO 2 and airborne particles (PM 10 ) impacts 6

7 The results Dispersion 7

8 Conclusions The UMP impact on 2015 scenarios, which had ambitious aims and means used, was significant on both traffic and emissions: reducing the given pollutant by 7 to 13% NO2 concentrations have on average been reduced by 50 % in the scenario without the UMP (vs 1998) whereas ozone concentrations increase by an average of 16%. On the other hand, the specific impact of the UMP (in relation to both 2015 scenarios) on concentrations of NO2 and ozone is extremely limited The effects on health of studied atmospheric pollutants follow exactly the same trend These health results are based on air pollution and do not estimate UMP benefits for other impacts (road safety, noise, etc ). 8

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