Nuclear Power: An Option for Kenya s Future Power Mix. By Winfred Ndubai Kenya Nuclear Electricity Board

Transcription

1 Nuclear Power: An Option for Kenya s Future Power Mix By Winfred Ndubai Kenya Nuclear Electricity Board

2 PRESENTATION OUTLINE 1 CURRENT & FUTURE ELECTRICITY CAPACITY IN KENYA 2 WHY NUCLEAR? 3 BENEFITS AND CONCERNS FOR NUCLEAR IN KENYA 4 KENYA S NPP APPROACH AND PROGRESS OF THE NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAMME 5 CONCLUSION

3 CURRENT & FUTURE ELECTRICITY CAPACITY IN KENYA

4 CURRENT ELECTRICITY INSTALLED IN KENYA

5 PEAK POWER DEMAND PROJECTION FOR KENYA (MW) Peak: 16,905MW Installed Capacity: 21,620MW Source: Least Cost Power Development Plan 2011/2031

6 GDP VS. ELECTRICITY SALES GROWTH RATES Source: KNBS- Economic Survey, 2014, KPLC-Annual Report 2013

7 PREVAILING CONDITIONS IN THE POWER SECTOR IN KENYA High electricity prices Low electrification levels Prevailing conditions in the power sector High system losses Persistent power Interruptions Unstable power prices caused by volatile oil prices

8 Key Question WHY NUCLEAR?

9 SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEM 9

10 ENERGY AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Modern forms of energy are essential for sustainable human development (economic and social) Over 60% of Kenyans do not have electricity access

11 POWER IS A 2030KEY ENABLER FOR KENYA VISION A sustained economic growth of 10% per annum from year 2015 Kenya Vision 2030 A globally competitive and prosperous nation with a high quality of life by 2030 Economic Social Political To maintain a sustained economic growth of 10% p.a. over the next 25 years A just and cohesive society enjoying equitable social development in a clean and secure environment An issue-based, peoplecentered, result-oriented, and accountable democratic political system Key Enabler: A vibrant power sector that meets electricity required to drive flagship projects and programmes

12 Huge energy requirements for flagship projects identified under the vision Kenya Vision 2030

13 BENEFITS AND CONCERNS FOR NUCLEAR IN KENYA

14 CONCERNS IN NUCLEAR High capital costs Long lead times (planning, construction, etc) Waste disposal issues Issues on public acceptance Regulatory need

15 BENEFITS OF NUCLEAR POWER Nuclear power has the following attributes: clean, safe, reliable, compact, competitive, numerous quantity of uranium fuel Relatively stable and low operating cost No intermittency Long life time ~ 40 to 60 years Reduced fuel import dependence No global/local environmental impacts Climate change buffer

16 POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF NUCLEAR POWER TO THE KENYAN ECONOMY Increased GDP for the local and national economies multiplier effects from competitively priced electricity and increased economic activities Employment during construction, operation, maintenance and decommissioning Enhancement of Research & Development in the country Isotope production Environmental benefits in terms of avoiding GHG and other pollution in the context of achieving sustainable development. Growth of specialized industries (equipment, semiconductor, telecommunications) Enhanced specialized training

17 KENYA S NPP APPROACH AND PROGRESS OF THE NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAMME

18 MILESTONES APPROACH We are here years

19 Kenya s Nuclear Power Program m e Prefeasibilit y St udy Report MAIN REPORT Prefeasibility Study (PFS) team was launched in November, 2011 Comprised of inter-governmental organization Team of Assessors. Comprehensively study the 19 (nineteen) infrastructure issues in the IAEA Milestone Approach Make recommendations on the steps to be taken by the government Propose a roadmap for implementation of a nuclear power programme Ministry of Energy & Petroleum KENYA NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY BOARD

20 15-YEAR STRATEGIC PLAN Commenced in January 2013 The strategic plan outlines; All key Kenyan nuclear stakeholder organizations and their roles in implementation of a NPP Activities towards attainment of each milestone. Commitments required from Government and other agencies

21 CAPACITY BUILDING HUMAN RESOURCE IAEA National Liaison Office (NLO) Over 300 trainings have been undertaken. Since 2012, more than 80 Kenyans have undertaken fellowship at Texas A&M University Kenya secured funding from the US Government under the Peaceful Uses Initiative (PUI) for capacity building Ten (10) Kenyans have completed and graduated with Masters in Nuclear Engineering at KEPCO Institute of Nuclear Graduate School (KINGS) in Korea. Eight (8) others are undertaking their studies at KINGS. Another group of Kenyans will join KINGS university this year Institute of Nuclear Science & Technology (UoN) - fifteen (15) students sponsored annually by the Board for the last four years for Masters in Nuclear Science

22 ELECTRIC GRID STUDY Study is necessitated by finding from the PFS: The need to determine requirements for the interface of nuclear power plant(s) to the Kenyan grid. The Government has procured a consultant to study the Kenyan electric Grid. The grid study is being undertaken in partnership with all relevant energy sector stakeholders

23 PUBLICITY AND ADVOCACY The Board has carried out public education awareness to improve Kenya s understanding of nuclear electricity generation. Stakeholder engagement has been carried out in Schools, County & National Gov ts, Agricultural Shows, Trade Fairs, Universities and Legislastors. Stakeholder engagement plan has been prepared

24 NUCLEAR POLICY & LEGISLATION The Board established an Inter- Ministerial Working Group which has developed a Draft National Nuclear Regulatory Bill The draft bill has been reviewed by IAEA legal experts The Bill shall be finalized and submitted for formal adoption and enactment

25 INTEGRATED NUCLEAR INFRASTRUCTURE REVIEW MISSION Currently taking place from 24th to 31st August 2015 The first international mission in Kenya to review the progress of Kenya s nuclear power programme, identify gaps and thereafter develop implementation strategies The mission is being conducted by international experts with long experiences in nuclear power aspects. Their review of the programme will assist the country in determining the next steps towards building the country s nuclear power programme based on the best international standards.

26 MEDIUM & LONG TERM PLANS

27 1. TECHNICAL ACTIVITIES STUDY 1. Comprehensive Site Selection Process 2. Reactor Technology Assessment 3. Strategies - Radioactive Waste Management, Emergency Preparedness, Nuclear Fuel Cycle 4. Feasibility Study Nuclear Power Plant

28 2. ESTABLISHMENT OF NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAMME INSTITUTIONS Institutions 1. Regulatory body 2. Owner/operator 3. Research & Development Institution (Technical Support Organization) 4. Radioactive waste management institution

29 CONCLUSION

30 CONCLUSION Nuclear power is set to complement other sources of energy towards building adequate energy for economic development The introduction of the first nuclear power plant (timing and size) will be highly dependent on the growth in the size of the electric grid Introduction of nuclear power to the generation mix will ensure; o Affordable and reliable electricity for all Kenyans; o Exponential power generation growth to support the country s industrial, commercial and domestic electricity demand o Direct and indirect employment of many professionals o Business opportunities worth billions of dollars to nuclear related industry

31 Thank You