Future Directions for Global and Hemispheric Cooperation the role of WMO

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1 Future Directions for Global and Hemispheric Cooperation the role of WMO Øystein Hov Norwegian Meteorological Institute, MSC-W, UiO chair OPAG EPAC of CAS (WMO) EMEP TFHTAP Brussels 15 June 2010

2 Fluxes between the Earth s surface and the atmosphere Moisture, precipitation Heat Momentum CO 2 and other GHGs PM physical and chemical characterisation Halocarbons and SF 6 NO x NH 3 VOC CO SO 2 HM POP Protect life and property, safeguard the environment, contribute to sustainable development, promote long-term observation of met., hydrological, climatological data, incl related environmental data, promote capacity-building, meet internl commitments Weather(incremental improvements in NWP) Radiative forcing - climate response UNFCCC ( cobenefits and tradeoffs; seasonal to decadal) Air quality health National and regional regulations Acid deposition ecosystems CLRTAP to global Eutrophication ecosystems CLRTAP to global BDC Visibility incl sand and dust storms (GAW, WWRP) Surface ozone crop loss CLRTAP to global UV health and crops Vienna Convention Water availability and quality Biodiversity BDC Agriculture/food significant gains can be made through WMO contributions

3 WMO between operations, policy and research Atmospheric composition and health; ecosystems impact; climate change - the cycling of greenhouse gases and interaction with AQ incl SLCF; N r cycling; NWP improvement; sand and dust storms (CLRTAP; EU; IPCC; Nitrogen initiative) (WMO Executive Council Task Team (EC-RTT) report April 2009)

4 Summing up EC-RTT + GAW recommendations GAW is mature but resource strapped WMO shouldensurethatthecapabilitiesrelatedto meteorological observations, research models, and operations areused to Link regional air pollution issues together in a global perspective Air quality forecasting NRT AMDAR like observationsofchemicalcompositioninclh 2 O Air pollution and climate change interact both ways Water cycle water as a resource and a carrier of pollutants/nutrients The reactive nitrogen issue NMHS s are under financial pressure. WMO member countries anyhow face these problematic issues and need to address them through the institutions they have. NMHS s and WMO are very well positioned through the capacityto observe, do researchincldevelopand applymodels, operationalise, verify/validate, disseminate and reach out

5 CAS agrees that changes in air pollution, climate and the biogeochemical cycles of trace chemicals in the atmosphere such as carbon and reactive nitrogen give rise toenvironmental problems. Meteorological processes often strongly influence their severity and rate of change. The analysis and abatement of these problems requires an interdisciplinary approach both nationally and internationally. The Commission urges WMO and its partners to intensify efforts to develop appropriate partnerships across disciplines nationally and internationally to address these challenges. The Commission agrees that it is important to develop a common understanding of air pollution, its health impacts, its long range transmission and the interaction with weather and climate change. The Commission agrees that many international conventions and initiatives would benefit greatly from a common approach developed with the help of WMO and its partners nationally and internationally. the WMO co-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the WMO-UNEP supported Vienna Convention on Protection of the Ozone Layer, the Reactive Nitrogen Initiative, the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and its European component Global Monitoring for Environment andsecurity (GMES), the Convention for the Long Range Transmission of Air Pollutants(CLRTAP), the Malé declaration and others.

6 8.3.4 Recommendation: WMO Members, including NMHSsand their national partners in other agencies and the WMO Secretariat, play a leading role in enhancing environmental observations, predictions and services and should: Strengthen observations to support multiple scale air quality prediction. NRT data delivery. Lead a global partnership to link globally the technical work onthe regional/continental long range transport of air pollution. Includes delivery of environmental data for day-to-day assessment of the long (and very long) range transport of air pollution; hindcastanalysis and scenario calculations. NRT of observations and forecasting. Provide quantitative information on carbon dioxide emissions through GAW (recognized as the comprehensive network of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)). Support research as basis for a global carbon trackingsystem. DA, NWP, deduce net atmosphere/earth surface carbon exchange and estimates of uncertainties; Support the analysis of the reactive nitrogen cycle to advise and build capacity to minimize reactive nitrogen loss to waterways and to the atmosphere, while the use of reactive nitrogen fertilizer is enhanced in regions where food production is nitrogen deficient; Take the lead in the technical analysis of how climate variability and change and air pollution interact both ways on a regional basis, and in combination on a global basis. These are issues of immediate concern throughout the world affecting societies to an extent that is not well known but could be significant (air pollution events, floods, droughts; water supply, food supply etc.).

7 Integrated approach for all WMO Programmes to provide the RIGHT INFORMATION to the RIGHT PLACE at the RIGHT TIME through: Routine collection and dissemination of time-critical and operations-critical data and products Data Discovery, Access and Retrieval service Timely delivery of data and products Unified procedures WIS Vision Coordinated and standardized metadata External access (especially for metadata)

8 WIS Vision IRI, Hadley Centre, and other climate research centres; Universities; Regional Climate Centres (CIIFEN, etc.) World Radiation Centre Regional Instrument Centres NC/ DCPC NC International Organizations (IAEA, CTBTO, UNEP, FAO.. ) DCPC NC NC/ DCPC GAW World Data Centres GCOS Data Centres Global Run-off Data Centre Global Precip. Climatology Centre NC Commercial Service Providers NC NC DCPC GISC GISC GISC GISC GISC DCPC NC WMO World Data Centres International Projects (e.g. GMES HALO) internet NC NC Satellite Dissemination (IGDDS, RETIM, Satellite etc) Two-Way Systems NC NC Real-time push On-demand pull

9 UNECE CLRTAP (1979) 1: "Air Pollution"means the introduction by man, directly or indirectly, of substances or energy into the air resulting in deleterious effects of such a nature as to endanger human health, harm living resources and ecosystems and material property and impair or interfere with amenities and other legitimate uses of the environment, and "air pollutants" shall be construed accordingly; "Long-range transboundaryair pollution"means air pollution whose physical origin is situated wholly or in part within the area under the national jurisdiction of one State and which has adverse effects in the area under the jurisdiction of another State at such a distance that it is not generally possible to distinguish the contribution of individual emission sources or groups of sources.

10 Science issues in the revised strategy (1) Keep the Generic science goal of EMEP State and trends in acidification, eutrophication,surface ozone, PM, HM, POPs Emission and trends, compliance Transboundary source-receptor-relationships Ecosystem recovery Overall assessment and policy advice Air pollution changes with climate : climate variability and change; consequences for atmospheric composition. Migration. Megacities. Exposed regions Climate change adaptation will change energy consumption emissions (renewables including biofuels). Long range transport of radiativeforcing

11 Science issues in the revised strategy (2) Air quality and its effect on the population Linking of scales. Transboundary component of population exposure PM: physical and chemical characterization. Health effects(who) POPs: identify new POPs, their cycle and impact Biogeochemical cycle of Hg Atmospheric physical and biological processes Fluxes soil-atmosphere, ocean-atmosphere Reactive nitrogen cycle Air pollution and the carbon cycle Overall assessment and scenarios Co-benefits air pollution/air quality climate reactive nitrogen Optimisation, sensitivity studies, scenario analysis as approaches to the testing of alternative policy measures

12 Globalisation of economies and emissions Claire Granier, CNRS

13 Artic Ocean RECOM- MEN- DATION: LINK REGIONS TOGETHER SO 2 emissions 10,00 MtS NO x emissions 5,92 MtN NH 3 emissions 5,08 MtN Canada Barents Sea Kara Sea S dep 8,88 MtS 89% Oxidised N deposition 5,10 MtN 86% Reduced N deposition 4,99 MtN 98% Iceland Ireland Atlantic Ocean Spain Portugal North Sea United Kingdom Netherlands Norway Denmark Sweden Poland Finland Estonia Lithuania Greece Latvia Belarus Germany Belgium Czech Rep. Ukraine Luxembourg Slovakia Austria France Liechtenstein Hungary Moldova Switzerland Slovenia Romania Croatia Bosnia and Monaco Herzegovina Yugoslavia Bulgaria Italy F.Y.R.of Albania Macedonia Black Sea Turkey Russian Federation Georgia Caspian Sea Armenia Azerbaijan Pacific Ocean Kazakhstan Aral Sea Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan Tajikistan of America Atlantic Ocean Malta Mediterranean Sea Cyprus

14 GAW Global Aerosol Network Status GAWSIS Many undersampled regions, many sampling sites not in database SAG is working to recruit contributing networks and to update database China Atmos. Watch Network Source: Zhang Xiao-Ye

15 EMEP model calculations with constant emissions 30t/s of mineral ash from , 28% by mass as PM2.5, 72% in the coarse fraction. DJF average for

16 Climate change air pollution Climate change modifies pdf s of physical and dynamical variables that determine atmospheric composition Modifications of atmosphere-surface interaction, in particular at the terrestrial surface, important Earth system models only account for a small fraction of important feedbacks and in highly parameterised ways Climate change air pollution tradeoffs and cobenefits, measurement programmes are required in particular for fluxes between the terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere Process oriented earth system models need development The climate change air pollution feedbacks can be very important Aerosol emissions cooled climate -0.7 C (Prather, Penner, et al., 2009). Kyoto gases warmed 0.3 C (emissions prior to 1990 warmed by 0.6 C)

17 NorESM Standard run without volcanic emissions left column, High emissions (200t/s mineral ash, 1tS/s SO2) right column Vertical columns of mineral ash, SO2 and sulphate aerosols

18 2m temperature after one year of high ash and SO2 emissions (200t/s and 1tS/s, respectively)

19 NorESM high emissions (200t/s mineral ash, 1tS/s of SO2), end of emission year (year 1), difference from no emission (standard) run

20 Black line - annual T change relative to up to 2000, blue line GHG and PM constant at 2000 levels, red line GHG constant at 2000 level, PM zero IPCC AR4 WG1 ch7

21 Urbanisation air pollution health GAW - GURME Observational Needs Chemical Meteorological (Tasks: 5-8) Assimilation Modeling Needs Weather prediction Chemical weather and air quality prediction (Tasks: 1-4) Demonstration Coordination Capacity Building Workshops Training (Tasks: 13,14) Education Air Quality & Related Products Improved Forecasts Guidelines Pilot Projects (Tasks: 9-12) Users Health Agriculture Environmental Public Emergency Response (Tasks: 15-18) Dissemination RECOMMENDATION: AQ FORECASTING

22 MOZAIC Data ( ) High resolutionvertical profiles duringtake-off and landing (~ 20m) High horizontal resolution at cruise altitude (~ 1 km) Regular measurements with 5 aircraft flying almost every day : flightswitho 3 & H 2 O : additionalflights with CO (on 4 (now3) aircraft, ) withnoy (on 1 aircraft, ) Threeaircraftstillin service (2 Lufthansa, 1 Air Namibia) More than 120 publications with MOZAIC data RECOMMENDATION: NRT AMDAR-LIKE CHEMICAL COMPOSITION OBSERVATIONS INCL H 2 O

23 6/24/2010 Challenges for Networks Increased coordination within each type of network measured parameters sampling protocols, QA/QC, data processing find partners in undersampled regions Provide information on measurements to a common database e.g., GAWSIS need to keep information up-to-date Provide data in a common format to users increase percentage of stations submitting data not necessary to have a common data center

24 6/24/2010 Challenges for Integration Enhanced interaction of the data generation and assimilation/modelling communities Coordination among different types of measurements Development of re-analysis products for combining different types of measurements surface-based in-situ surface-based remote sensing satellite-based remote sensing radiation budget

25 The atmospheric lower boundary is more than a surface

26 Indirect and direct radiative forcings from tropospheric ozone Symbols are direct forcings (IPCC, 2001) Blue and red curves are indirect ozone forcing, due to ozone impacts on vegetation (high ozone sensitivity) (low ozone sensitivity) Suggests that the indirect forcing may be similar in magnitude to the direct forcing. Sitch et al. (Nature, 2007)

27 RECOMMENDATION: AIR POLLUTION CLIMATE/WEATHER

28 Water stress

29 Changes in water yield in Europe (Eurowasser project)

30 RECOMMENDATION: WATER CYCLE - WATER AS A RESOURCE AND CARRIER OF POLLUTANTS/NUTRIENTS Water cycle system Shortwave radiation Longwave radiation Shortwave radiation Longwave radiation atmosphere over land atmosphere over ocean Evap Precip Evap Precip Evap Cryosphere Surface Unsaturated zone River system Oceans Groundwater met.no strategy seminar Klækken Lithosphere

31 An integrated approach to Nitrogen pollution Water Directive Nitrate Directive Aquatic NO 3 FCCC N 2 Soil NO 3 Manure NH 3 Fertilizer industry HNO 3 Combustion N 2 O NH 4 NO 3 C Climate change Effects on ecosystems o.a. decrease in biodiversity Effects on materials and cultural heritage CO 2, CH 4, SF, HFK, 6 PFK,.. SO, (NH ( 2 4 ) 2 SO4 CLRTAP NEC Dir. Directives on emission control NO x AQ Directive Effects on human and animal health [Title] [Lecturer], [Date] CBD?

32 RECOMMENDATION: THE REACTIVE NITROGEN CYCLE

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34 WMO CASXV Incheon Republic of Korea November

35 Observations: GAW Global Stations 80 o N 40 o N 0 o 40 o S 80 o S Samoa Point Barrow Mauna Loa Alert Mace Head Jungfraujoch Ushuaia Izaña Arembepe South Pole Cape Point Neumayer Zeppelin Mountain/ Ny Ålesund Pallas- Sodankylä Zugspitze- Hohenpeissenberg Assekrem- Tamanrasset Mt. Kenya Mt. Waliguan Minamitorishima Bukit Koto Tabang Amsterdam Is. Cape Grim Danum Valley Lauder Miller projection - GAWSIS 2.1 (c) 2003 Empa, QA/SAC Switzerland 180 o W 120 o W 60 o W 0 o 60 o E 120 o E 180 o W WMO CASXV Incheon Republic of Korea November

36 WMO CASXV Incheon Republic of Korea November

37 Thankyoufor yourattention