EMEP strategy plan revision ( )

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1 EMEP strategy plan revision ( ) Øystein Hov Norwegian Meteorological Institute and MSC-W, also at Dep of Geosciences, University of Oslo

2 UNECE CLRTAP (1979) 1: "Air Pollution" means the introduction by man, directly or indirectly, of substances or energy into the air resulting in deleterious effects of such a nature as to endanger human health, harm living resources and ecosystems and material property and impair or interfere with amenities and other legitimate uses of the environment, and "air pollutants" shall be construed accordingly; "Long-range transboundary air pollution" means air pollution whose physical origin is situated wholly or in part within the area under the national jurisdiction of one State and which has adverse effects in the area under the jurisdiction of another State at such a distance that it is not generally possible to distinguish the contribution of individual emission sources or groups of sources.

3 What has been achieved?

4 UN-ECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution - 51 Parties including the CEC - 8 Specific protocols European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) - 41 Parties Barents Sea Kara Sea Artic Ocean Canada Iceland Pacific Ocean Finland of America North Sea Atlantic Ocean Norway Sweden Estonia Russian Federation Latvia Denmark Lithuania Ireland Atlantic Ocean Portugal United Kingdom Spain Netherlands Belgium Luxembourg France Switzerland Monaco Germany Czech Rep. Austria Liechtenstein Poland Slovakia Hungary Belarus Slovenia Romania Croatia Bosnia and Herzegovina Yugoslavia Bulgaria Italy F.Y.R.of Albania Macedonia Greece Moldova Ukraine Black Sea Turkey Georgia Caspian Sea Armenia Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Aral Sea Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Malta Mediterranean Sea Cyprus North America EU Russia East Europe Caucasus and Central Asian Republics (EECCA) partnership on transboundary air pollution issues EMEP WMO partnership facilitating the linking up with East Asia CLRTAP is using science to support the identification and design of policy responses, extended peer review of methods and technical results by scientists and relevant stakeholders

5 CLRTAP is using science to support the identification and design of policy responses, extended peer review of methods and technical results by scientists and relevant stakeholders

6 Results from the 20 th EMEP laboratory intercalibration (absolute value of the average percent error). Lab \ component SO 2 impr. SO 2 abs. HNO 3 NH 3 NO 2 CS DK FI FR 0.9 DE HU IS IE 1.1 NO PL PT 20.3 ES SE CH 2.4 RU UK SK LT 1.2 LV TU HR 2.8 SI EE PL Env Lab \ component SO4-S NO3-N NH4-N Mg Na Cl Ca K Cond. ph diff ph (H+) 1 AT CS DK FI FR DE(Leip.) DE(Schau.) HU IS IE (MET) IT-CNR NL NO PL PT RO ES SE CH RU GB YU CA US-I IT(ISP) 31 SK LT LV TR CR SI IE (ESB) EE PL (Env.) MK <5% 5-10% 10-20% >20%

7 EMEP MSC-W Transboundary air pollution Source-receptor matrices: The contribution of air pollution from emissions in one country to pollution in another country (S, N, VOC). EMEP Unified Chemical transport model (national, regional/continental, global) Contribution of French NOx emissions to AOT40: Source countries of S-deposition in Norway 2002: Meteorologisk institutt Institutt met.no

8 Emissions and removal over Europe 2000 S and N SO 2 emissions 10,00 MtS S dep 8,88 MtS 89% NO x emissions 5,92 MtN Oxidised N deposition 5,10 MtN 86% NH 3 emissions 5,08 MtN Reduced N deposition 4,99 MtN 98% S and N emissions in Europe are deposited inside Europe EMEP Report 1/2003

9 EMEP hemispheric model calculations sourcereceptor relationships between continents Polar stereographic grid 100x100km 2, 20 layers up to 100hPa, 8 layers below 2km ECMWF ERA-40 meteorology for 2001 Edgar 2000 emission data EMEP-MSCW Technical Report 2/2006

10 Average reduction in secondary inorganic aerosol in 2001, in µg/m 3 resulting from - 15% SO2 emission reduction, - 15% NOx emission reduction, 15% SO2 emission reduction 15% NOx emission reduction Emitters Receptors Western Europe North America Far East Middle East Western Europe North America Far East Middle East Western Europe North America Far East Middle East <5% EMEP MSCW Technical Report 2/2006

11 Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden UK Total EU-15 Czech Rep. Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Malta Poland Slovakia Slovenia Total NMS Total EU-25 Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] (IIASA) Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5, average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

12 Protocols to the Convention 1999 Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone; 24 Parties. Entered into force on 17 May Protocol on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs); 29 Parties. Entered into force on 23 October Protocol on Heavy Metals; 29 Parties. Entered into force on 29 December Support of EU legislation (NEC, AQFD and its daughter directives; CAFE) 1994 Protocol on Further Reduction of Sulphur Emissions; 27 Parties. Entered into force 5 August Protocol concerning the Control of Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds or their Transboundary Fluxes; 23 Parties. Entered into force 29 September Protocol concerning the Control of Nitrogen Oxides or their Transboundary Fluxes; 32 Parties. Entered into force 14 February Protocol on the Reduction of Sulphur Emissions or their Transboundary Fluxes by at least 30 per cent; 23 Parties. Entered into force 2 September Protocol on Long-term Financing of the Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP); 42 Parties. Entered into force 28 January 1988.

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16 emep strategy revision where to go?

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18 Vision EMEP is science-based and policy-driven instrument for international cooperation in atmospheric monitoring and modelling, emission inventories and projections, and integrated assessment to help solve transboundary air pollution problems. To this end it seeks to develop: SCIENCE - establish sound scientific evidence; underpin, develop and evaluate environmental policies; PARTNERSHIP - Parties to the CLRTAP; WMO; EANET; GMES etc OPENNESS - open use of intellectual resources and products; SHARING transparent, share information and expertise with research programmes, expert institutions, national and international organizations, and environmental agreements; ORGANIZATION - integrate information on emissions, environmental quality, effects and abatement options, and to provide the basis for solutions.

19 Political driving forces for the revised strategy (1) Current policy The Gothenburg Protocol, its implementation (status) and revision needs. The implementation and revision of the NEC directive and other EU legislation. PM and health effects as a dominating environmental policy concern EU Regulation Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH) driving force for persistent toxic substances (PTS). Revision of the UNEP POP Protocol, inclusion of new POPs (taking into account REACH). UNEP Mercury Programme, Lead and Cadmium activities.

20 Political driving forces for the revised strategy (2) GMES GMES (GEOSS) and its atmospheric service (GAS) The primary themes are Climate Forcing; Air Quality; Stratospheric Ozone and Solar radiation. EU common agricultural policy (CAP) up for revision over the next 5 years, implications for the European nitrogen cycle and land use Globalisation Globalisation of (European) air pollution (East Asia emission growth; globalisation of the economy and its consequences for intercontinental transport of air pollution; aircraft emissions (ICAO); shipping emissions (IMO); changes in biomass burning and forest fire frequency and extent). Intercontinental transport of air pollution contribute more to the pollution levels in Europe, the Arctic, marginal seas, etc.

21 Political driving forces for the revised strategy (3) WMO Longstanding partnership. WMO GAW strategy (including IGACO). Emphasis on near real time delivery of environmental data Global domain Climate change Climate variability and change; consequences for atmospheric composition. Climate change adaptation will change energy consumption emissions (renewables including biofuels). CC downscaling to regional scale AND integration with air quality incl RF-agents with reional gradients (PM; Ozone; precursors) Open Data policy UNECE Convention on Access to Information (Aarhus-Convention 1998) EU INSPIRE directive (Infrastructure for Spatial Information in Europe) free access to map-based information to support formulation, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of Community policies.

22 Science issues in the revised strategy (1) Keep the Generic science goal of EMEP State and trends in acidification, eutrophication, surface ozone, PM, HM, POPs Emission and trends, compliance Transboundary source-receptor-relationships Ecosystem recovery Overall assessment and policy advice Air pollution changes with climate : climate variability and change; consequences for atmospheric composition and its mitigation. Migration. Megacities. Exposed regions Climate change adaptation will change energy consumption emissions (renewables including biofuels). Long range transport of radiative forcing

23 Science issues in the revised strategy (2) Air quality and its effect on the population Linking of scales. Transboundary component of population exposure PM: physical and chemical characterization. Health effects (WHO) POPs: identify new POPs, their cycle and impact Biogeochemical cycle of Hg Atmospheric physical and biological processes Fluxes soil-atmosphere, ocean-atmosphere Reactive nitrogen cycle Air pollution and the carbon cycle Overall assessment and scenarios Co-benefits air pollution/air quality climate reactive nitrogen Optimisation, sensitivity studies, scenario analysis as approaches to the testing of alternative policy measures

24 Addressing the science questions (1) Apply partnership, openness, sharing Capacity building as a core activity Identify the main policy questions Main methods and capacity building Models incl process description and linking of relevant spatial scales: atmosphere and earth system models; DA Emissions (anthropogenic, biogenic, incl aircraft and marine; PM; HM & POPs) Observations/Monitoring. Revise EMEP monitoring strategy. QA/QC. Reference methods. NRT. Overall assessment. Effects/impacts. Abatement options. Costs and benefits.

25 Addressing the science questions (2) Main functions and products required Open, free and transparent data policy (Search, Access, Retrieval) No undue delay between reporting of information and its application. NRT Dissemination and outreach Identify links to users for each priority science area: policy makers, other Conventions, research, the public Time gap between data collection and assessment to be reduced to less than six months; to NRT when online instrumentation is used with forecast models.

26 Earth system approach, downscaling to regional level and its coupling to regional air pollution (climate adaptation in conjunction with air pollution abatement on the regional level) Regional downscaling, coupling RCM+CTM+monitoring+assessment

27 Revised strategy: Challenges for Partnership, openness, sharing, organization Link to UNFCCC/IPCC, time frame ( decadal, regional ) WMO-GAW. Implementation of IGACO. Promote in partnership with WMO the capacity of EMEP outside of UNECE. CLRTAP and the Malé Declaration on Control and Prevention of Air Pollution and Its Likely Transboundary Effects for South Asia. A technical working relationship EANET and to US/Canadian monitoring networks, evaluation, assessment International Nitrogen Initiative and European initiatives. GMES and GEOSS including relevant projects UNEP Chemicals Hg, Cd and Pb Stockholm Convention and REACH for evaluation of new POPs. emission capacities (GEIA (NCAR), EDGAR (JRC)). ecosystem - atmosphere communities (ILEAPS, SOLAS).

28 1 Co-benefits in reducing air pollution and climate change UNFCCC climate: regional, AQ Eutrophication, reactive nitrogen in PM; TFRN under WGSR Stockholm Convention Toxic species HM and POPs in EMEP CLRTAP, EMEP Management of reactive nitrogen EANET, EEA, DG Environment, DG Enterprise, GMES, WMO-GAW Regional air quality EMEP Task Forces, Malé Declaration, EANET Regional downscaling, coupling RCM+CTM+monitoring+assessment 1 - Reducing SO 2 or NO x emissions improve AQ, aerosol load, heating + - Reducing NO x emissions reduce tropospheric ozone and RF - Climate change modifies synoptic weather incl. Precip, wet deposition

29 GMES Structure of Products, Services and Delivery system Blueprint for GMES and GEOSS Real time input information (raw data) Core information (atmosphere incl land and ocean interfaces) User customized information (user products) Satellite and in situ networks Atmospheric Core Services Atmospheric Downstream Services atmosphere Operational Users Service outputs (others)

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32 Evaluation of EMEP capacities in the current strategic period ( ) 1 (low), 2 (medium), 3 (high) EMEP capacity Issues Emissions Models incl data assimilation Observations Overall assessment Transboundary fluxes of air pollution Air Pollution and its effects on the population PM Toxic substances Atmosphere-biosphere interactions Reactive nitrogen atmospheric cycle Air pollution and the carbon cycle Climate change impacts on air pollution

33 Process and timeline EMEP Steering Body discussion note prepared. To be sent around in June to the SB members to engage a discussion to be taken into account in the Steering Body session in Geneva in September. EMEP Bureau, the Task Forces (TFMM, TFHTAP, TFIAM, TFEIP, TFHM&POP, TFRN) and the EMEP Centres (CCC, CEIP, CIAM, MSC-E, MSC-W) are asked for comments and input. Timeline: New strategy to be adopted by Steering Body in 2009 Wanting to contribute? Discussion note available from oystein.hov@met.no, read and comment!

34 END OF PRESENTATION Wanting to contribute? Discussion note available from read and comment! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION