TF HTAP Status & Workshop Objectives
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1 TF HTAP Status & Workshop Objectives TF HTAP Co-Chairs Terry Keating, PhD Frank Dentener, PhD U.S. Environmental Protection Agency European Commission Office of Research & Development Joint Research Centre
2 Assessing the Impacts of Global Air Pollution Scenarios: Implications for HTAP2, AMAP, and Global IAMs HTAP & AMAP HTAP & Global IAMs Wed Thu Fri Atmospheric Modeling Emissions and Scenarios Impacts Assessment Next Steps on Arctic Issues Status of HTAP2 and Related Efforts Integrated Assessment and Decision Support Health Impacts of Air Pollution Ecosystem Impacts of Air Pollution Alternative Policy Scenarios and Costs Uncertainty Estimation Future Challenges and Opportunities
3 Objectives of This Workshop Identify Analyses for ACP Special Issue Global and regional assessment of intercontinental transport of air pollution: results from HTAP, AQMEII and MICS Accepting submissions until 1 December 2016 Not limited to HTAP2 simulations. Open to all publications related to the policyrelevant science questions: a. What fraction of air pollution can be attributed to contemporary anthropogenic regional emissions sources versus extra-regional, nonanthropogenic, or legacy sources of pollution? b. What is the contribution of each fraction to impacts on human health, ecosystems and climate change? c. How sensitive are regional pollution levels and related impacts to changes in regional versus extra-regional emission sources? d. How will the contributions of the fractions and their sensitivities change in the future as a result of expected air pollution abatement efforts or climate change? e. How do the availability, costs and impacts of additional emission abatement options compare across different regions?
4 Objectives of This Workshop Identify Analyses for ACP Special Issue Global and regional assessment of intercontinental transport of air pollution: results from HTAP, AQMEII and MICS Accepting submissions until 1 December 2016 Identify Areas of Future HTAP AMAP Cooperation In the context of broader EMEP AMAP cooperation Identify Areas of Future Research to Improve Air Pollution Impact Assessment Within global integrated assessment models, TF HTAP, and other related activities.
5 Questions for Discussion At the end of each session, we have a set a questions we would like to discuss. Each set is similar to the following: What are the most important uncertainties or questions to be addressed? Are there additional relevant activities (completed, ongoing, or planned) that should be considered as we assess future opportunities? What questions can be addressed in the short term (i.e., what analysis can be completed by Dec 2016 for inclusion in the ACP special issue)? What questions can be addressed over the next 2-3 years? What opportunities are there to build upon past and ongoing work within TF HTAP and AMAP to address new questions? What are the critical steps necessary to advance this work in the short (2016) and longer terms ( )?
6 Work Plan Themes of Cooperative Activities Under TF HTAP Emissions & Scenarios Global/Regional Source/Receptor Modeling Impacts on Health, Ecosystems, & Climate Model/Observation & Process Evaluation Impact of Climate Change on Pollution Papers & Reports Data Network & Analysis Tools
7 Papers & Reports Special Issue of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Global and regional assessment of intercontinental transport of air pollution: results from HTAP, AQMEII and MICS Accepting submissions until 1 December 2016 Open to all publications related to the intercontinental transport of air pollution and providing answers to the HTAP policy-relevant science questions: r a. What fraction of air pollution can be attributed to contemporary anthropogenic regional emissions sources versus extra-regional, nonanthropogenic, or legacy sources of pollution? b. What is the contribution of each fraction to impacts on human health, ecosystems and climate change? c. How sensitive are regional pollution levels and related impacts to changes in regional versus extra-regional emission sources? d. How will the contributions of the fractions and their sensitivities change in the future as a result of expected air pollution abatement efforts or climate change? e. How do the availability, costs and impacts of additional emission abatement options compare across different regions?
8 Global & Regional Source/Receptor Modeling Overall Approach: Use global and regional simulations of to evaluate against observations and to contribute to the quantification of parameterized S/R relationships. Use parameterized S/R relationships to estimate impacts of future strategies. World divided into 16 Regions (60 sub-regions) AQMEII AQMEII MICS Asia 7 priority source regions: North America, Europe, East Asia, South Asia, Russia/Belarus/Ukraine, Middle East Nested Regional Simulations from AQMEII and MICS-Asia Sensitivity Experiments: Pollutants: CH 4, NOx, CO, VOC, aerosol-(precursor) Sectors: Transport; Power/Industry; Residential; Other, Fires/Dust
9 Work Plan Modeling Work Flow 2008, 2010 Emissions /2050 Scenarios Global Base Modeling Regional Base Modeling Global & Regional Perturbations Model-Observation Analyses Source Attribution Method Comparison Source/Receptor Parameterization Air Quality, Health, Ecosystem, and Climate Impacts of Mitigation Scenarios
10 Progress of Work Plan Emissions & Scenarios Source/Receptor Modeling Observation Model Evaluation Impacts Assessment Impact of Climate Change Data Network & Tools 2008, 2010 Global Anthropogenic Emissions Mosaic at 0.1⁰ resolution 3 Benchmark Scenarios to 2050 (based on ECLIPSEv5a) Alternative Scenarios related to Potential Policies 2010 (2008,2009) Simulations for Global & Regional Models Sparse Matrix of Sensitivity Studies for S/R Calculations S/R Calculation Methods Comparison Improved S/R Parameterizations r Several observational data collections (EBAS, AQMEII, ) Several targeted evaluation studies (region, observation) Recommended Benchmark Observations for Global Evaluation PM/O3 Human Health Impacts O3 Vegetation Impacts Climate Change Impacts (RF, ) Review of Literature Data Formats and Tools Data Archive and Visualization Tools
11 Status of HTAP2 Global Base Simulations BASE Gridded Aerosol Group Institution Model CICERO OsloCTM3.v NASA GSFC GOCARTv RIAM SPRINTARS NAGOYA,JAMSTEC,NIES CHASER NAGOYA,JAMSTEC,NIES CHASER_t Univ.Col. Boulder GEOSCHEM-ADJOINT SSEC-NESDIS RAQMS SSEC-NESDIS RAQMS_ASSIM NASA GSFC GEOS5 1 1 GEORGIA TECH REAM 1 1 SNU GEOS-CHEM SNU GEOS_Chem_Calnex 1 1 EMEP_MSC-W UNIMOD ECMWF C-IFS IITM MOZART NOAA/GFDL AM3 NCAR, Leeds, IASS-PotsdaCAM-Chem INERIS, CIEMAT CHIMERE Lancaster FRSGC-UCI CTM Environment Canada GEM-MACH Met Office HadGEM2-ES Univ. Tenn. Knoxville HCMAQ U Iowa, JPL STEM ICIMOD WRF-Chem Counts Gridded Gases Station Aerosol Station Gases BASE Gridded Aerosol Gridded Gases Station Aerosol Station Gases BASE Gridded Aerosol Gridded Gases Station Aerosol Station Gases
12 Status of HTAP2 Global Model 2010 Sensitivity Runs Global Regional Pollutant Sector Dust North America Europe East Asia South Asia CH4INC CH4DEC GLOALL NAMALL EURALL EASALL SASALL RBUALL MDEALL MCAALL SAMALL OCNALL GLONOX GLOCO GLOVOC GLOSO2 GLONH3 GLOTRN GLOPIN GLORES GLOOTH Model OsloCTM3.v GOCARTv SPRINTARS CHASER CHASER_t GEOSCHEM-ADJOINT RAQMS 1 RAQMS_ASSIM GEOS REAM GEOS-CHEM GEOS_Chem_Calnex UNIMOD C-IFS MOZART-4 1 AM3 CAM-Chem CHIMERE FRSGC-UCI CTM GEM-MACH HadGEM2-ES HCMAQ STEM WRF-Chem GLOFIR GLODST EASDST MDEDST CASDST NAFDST SHLDST SHRDST NAMNOX NAMCO NAMVOC NAMSO2 NAMNH3 NAMTRN NAMPIN NAMRES EURNOX EURCO EURVOC EURSO2 EURNH3 EURTRN EURPIN EURRES EASNOX EASVOC EASSO2 SASNOX SASTRN SASPIN SASFIR
13 HTAP air pollution benchmark scenarios No Further Control (NFC) Current Legislation (CLE) Policy Relevant Questions NFC: What are the benefits of implementing current policies in terms of health, ecosystems, and climate impacts? CLE: Given current policies, what are emissions likely to be in the future? GAINS Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) MFR: What technology and policy options will be available (at a reasonable cost) to further mitigate pollution problems in the future?
14 O 3 changes in Europe for HTAP global air pollution scenarios Total O 3 change HTAP scenarios: NFC No further control CLE Current Legislation MFR Maximum Feasible Reductions Within EU Outside of EU Methane For Europe: Regional controls can still bring down ozone, but requires ambitious and expensive air pollution policy Ambitious air pollution policy elsewhere may be beneficial for Europe, especially in the US. Methane emission reductions are going to be crucial for reducing ozone. Methane is included in climate policies, but we will need to reduce it also for reducing ozone air pollution. Reducing methane will require strong collaboration with countries in Asia 14 Wild, Klimont et al, 2015
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