Multi-model ensemble simulations of Air pollution and Climate Change in 2030

Transcription

1 Multi-model ensemble simulations of Air pollution and Climate Change in 2030 Frank Dentener, David Stevenson, Drew Shindell, Maarten Krol, Rita van Dingenen, Kjerstin Ellingsen, Twan van Noije and ca. 30 persons contributors JRC Brussels 1

2 Background OxComp IPCC TAR model intercomparison sampled models in ~1999 OxComp focussed on SRES A2 in New scenarios from IIASA include AQ legislation measures (not in SRES) Models and emissions have developed in the last 5 years New sets of biomass burning and ship emissions Preparation of IPCC-AR4, but also useful for e.g. TF HTAP JRC Brussels 2

3 PhotoComp (2005) Focus on the year 2030; the inter-mediate future which is of direct relevance to policy makers; compare to the year 2000 Emphasis on the synergetic effect of air quality (human health and vegetation exposure) and climate (RF) 26 models from 15 different model families ; model resolution from 1 x1 to 2.5 x2.5 to 5 x5. Model statistics- and model response to emissions Currently 1 accepted paper; 4 submitted and 1 in prep. Baseline + 3 emission scenarios + climate change scenario Emission scenarios: CLE: Current Legislation 2030 MFR: Maximum Feasible Reduction 2030 SRES A2: high emission JRC Brussels 3 Climate Change scenario: IPCC92a (ca 1 K temperature increase) by 2030

4 26 Participating Models CHASER_CTM CHASER_GCM FRSGC/UCI GEOS-CHEM GISS GMI/CCM3 GMI/DAO GMI/GISS IASB LLNL-IMPACT LMDz/INCA-CTM LMDz/INCA-GCM MATCH-MPIC/ECMWF MATCH-MPIC/NCEP MOZ2-GFDL MOZART4 MOZECH MOZECH2 p-tomcat STOCHEM-HadAM3 STOCHEM-HadGEM TM4 TM5 UIO_CTM2 ULAQ UM_CAM CTMs driven by analyses CTMs coupled to GCMs CTMs driven by GCM output JRC Brussels 4

5 Global NO x emission scenarios SRES A CLE 40.0 MFR Figure 1. Projected development of IIASA anthropogenic NO x emissions by SRES world region (Tg NO 2 yr -1 ). JRC Brussels Europe North America Asia + Oceania Latin America Africa + Middle East Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) SRES A2 - World Total SRES B2 - World Total

6 Analysis of oxidation capacity, surface ozone, deposition, satellite observations of NO 2 and CO Ozone and oxidation capacity: 3D monthly mean fields for O 3, CO, CH 4, NO, NO 2, and OH Daily average tropospheric column ozone 3D monthly budgets of ozone production and destruction, surface deposition, stratospheric O 3 influx Hourly surface ozone [ppbv] 3D monthly mean fields of the CH 4 +OH destruction (lifetime)=>oh Ecosystem inputs: Oxidized and reduced nitrogen, and sulfur deposition Biodiversity, Eutrophication, Acidification Comparison with satellite date: NO2 and CH 2 O column (molec/cm 2 ). GOME;10:30 Local Time CO (MOPITT of CO columns) JRC Brussels 6

7 Year 2000: tropospheric O 3 JRC Brussels 7

8 Year 2000 Ensemble mean of 25 models Annual Zonal Mean Annual Tropospheric JRC Brussels 8 Column D. Stevenson, JGR, in press

9 Year 2000 Inter-model standard deviation (%) Annual Zonal Mean Annual Tropospheric JRC Brussels 9 Column D. Stevenson, JGR, in press

10 Sonde ±1SD Ensemble mean model closely resembles ozone-sonde measurements JRC Brussels 10 Sonde data: Logan (1999) + SHADOZ (Thompson et al, 2003) J F M A M J J A S O N D 90-30S 30S-EQ EQ-30N 30-90N Model ±1SD UT: 250 hpa MT: 500 hpa LT: 750 hpa

11 Multi-model ensemble mean change in tropospheric O under 3 scenarios Annual Zonal Mean O 3 / ppbv Annual Tropospheric Column O 3 / DU Likely IIASA CLE SRES B2 economy + Current AQ Legislation JRC Brussels 11 Optimistic IIASA MFR SRES B2 economy + Maximum Feasible Reductions Pessimistic IPCC SRES A2 High economic growth + Little AQ legislation D. Stevenson, JGR, in press

12 O3 in 2030, radiative forcing & influence of climate change JRC Brussels 12

13 Radiative forcing implications Forcings (mw m -2 ) for the 3 scenarios: % +37% 1000 mw / m CO 2 CH 4 O CLE MRF A2 JRC Brussels 13 CO CH O D. Stevenson, JGR, in press

14 O 3 air quality JRC Brussels 14

15 Monthly average Surface ozone comparison with measurements S.W. US S.E. US Great Lakes N. China Brazil C.E. Africa S. Africa Max models + 1 sd -1 sd -Min models C. Mediterranean C. Europe N. India; Nepal Middle East S. India S.E. Asia JRC Brussels 15 Ellingsen et al, in prep R. Van Dingenen

16 Statistical Relationship between SOMO35, EC, and EPA standards 120 exceedence days EEA 100 USEPA Limit level EEA 80 limit level USEPA Linear (EEA) 60 Linear (USEPA) 40 EC 25 days should not be exceeded 20 y = 1.669E-02x E+01 R 2 = 0.95 y = 0.002x R 2 = 0.55 US EPA 3 days should not be exceeded SOMO35 (ppb.days) JRC Brussels 16 Ellingsen et al, in prep. R. Van Dingenen

17 Increase in exceedances: 2030 CLE versus 2000 S2 - S1 ppb.day s S.W. USA S.E. USA Great Lakes Latin America/ Central- East Southern Africa Central Mediterra Central Europe North India Middle East Southern India S.E. Asia Northern China Australia day s of exceedence SOMO JRC- Brussels- 169PF EEA USEPA * JRC Brussels 17 Ellingsen et al, in prep. R. Van Dingenen

18 Oxidation capacity, CO and OH JRC Brussels 18

19 O 3 budget and CH 4 lifetime O 3 chemical loss / Tg(O 3 )/yr JRC Brussels 19 Results for a single model, several scenarios Colours signify different models IPCC TAR 8.4 years Climate change reduces τ CH4 Emissions have minor influence on τ CH4 CH 4 lifetime / years Ensemble mean model (offset) Models with longer τ CH4 have lower O 3 destruction rates: O( 1 D) + H 2 O 2OH What causes the intermodel differences? Water vapour? Lightning NO x? Photolysis schemes? D. Stevenson, JGR, in press

20 CO comparison with MOPITT GLOBAL NH month month TROPICS SH month month JRC Brussels Shindell et al, JGR, submitted

21 OH zonal average [10 6 molec cm -3 ] JRC Brussels 21 Krol et al., in prep.

22 NO 2 column: retrievals and models Ensemble model Ensemble retrieval Van Noije et al, submitted to ACPD JRC Brussels 22

23 NO 2 column: retrievals and models Max model diff Max meas diff Ensemble model Max model diff Max meas diff JRC Brussels 23 Van Noije et al, submitted to ACPD

24 Nitrogen deposition JRC Brussels 24

25 HNO 3 wet deposition: models and measurements NADP EMEP Kulshrestha EAnet IDAF Various Galloway JRC Brussels 25 Dentener et al., submitted GBC, 2005

26 2000 S1 S2 CLE S3 MFR Fraction Nr deposition in excess of 1 g/m2/year on natural ecosystems S4 A2 Fraction of Reactive Nitrogen deposition in excess of 1 g/m 2 /year on non-agricultural vegetation % WORLD SH NH JAPAN OCEANIA SOUTH EAST ASIA EAST ASIA SOUTH ASIA MIDDLE EAST FORMER USSR EASTERN EUROPE OECD EUROPE SOUTHERN AFRICA EASTERN AFRICA WESTERN AFRICA NORTHERN AFRICA SOUTH AMERICA CENTRAL AMERICA USA CANADA JRC Brussels 26 Dentener et al., submitted GBC, 2005

27 Final Remarks Relatively simple experiment; but rich in results. Air quality and climate versus emissions: emissions dominate the signal. Influence of climate change uncertain. Quantitative assessment of 2030 scenarios provide clear options for policymakers (radiative forcing and AQ) In free troposphere: Ensemble mean model O 3 closely resembles observations. Surface: larger problems. Inter-model standard deviations highlight where models differ the most Global budgets reveal interesting and fundamental model differences Ozone, climate, deposition are coupled problems: integrated view presented. Useful baseline for TF HTAP studies on ozone? JRC Brussels 27

28 JRC Brussels 28

29 Impact of Climate Change on Ozone by 2030 (ensemble of 9 models) Negative water vapour feedback Positive stratospheric influx feedback Mean - 1SD Mean Mean + 1SD Positive and negative feedbacks no clear consensus JRC Brussels 29 D. Stevenson, JGR, in press

30 JRC Brussels 30

31 Geographical differences in NOy deposition over Asia Mean CHASER JRC TM5 STOCHEM JRC Brussels 31 baseline

32 JRC Brussels 32

33 Multi Model Annual Average O 3 in base-line JRC Brussels 33

34 CLE2030 minus minus baseline Current legislation Indian subcontinent transport energy Reductions in Europe and USA offset by increase of background JRC Brussels 34

35 MFR2030- baseline 2000: 2000: Optimistic Technology Worldwide decrease by 2 ppbv Regionally -8 ppbv JRC Brussels 35

36 SRES SRES A2 A baseline; Yearly Yearly increase in in surface surface ozone ozone No No control control case case Global increase by 5 pbbv Africa, Asia ppbv JRC Brussels 36

37 Effect of climate change on surface ozone in 2030 JRC Brussels 37