The Hydrological and Ecological Impacts of Climate Change in a Large Lake Case Study of Lake Saimaa, Finnish Lake District
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1 Waterpraxis The Hydrological and Ecological Impacts of Climate Change in a Large Lake Case Study of Lake Saimaa, Finnish Lake District Seppo Hellsten Finnish Environment Institute SYKE 19/01/2011-1
2 Main aims of presentation Effects of changing climate Sensitivity of lake water bodies Impact assessment system Case study of Lake Saimaa - 2
3 Climate change in brief In world In Finland Temperature rise by 3 7 C o Increase of precipitation by % Deviation of average temperature (C o ) Temperature CO 2 ice-drilling CO 2 measurements Atm. CO 2 conc. (ppma) Source: FMI - 3
4 Trends in hydrological change Observed changes in mean discharge (MQ) in winter Dec Jan Feb (DJF), spring Mar Apr May (MAM) and summer Jun Jul Aug (JJA) Source: Korhonen & Kuusisto
5 Why lakes are vulnerable? Winter draw - down -autumn spawning fishes -benthic fauna -aquatic macrophytes Delayed/lowered spring flood spring spawning fishes shore vegetation Changed fluctuation regime / water level shores benthic fauna shore vegetation - 5
6
7 Scenarios used A1B greenhouse gas release scenario > 1.5 x recent releases by 2070 Four different climate scenarios (SMHI Had, SMHI Ec5, DMI Arp, Ncar) - 7
8 Case study set up Estimate the effects of climate change on large lake ecosystem by using a set of water level fluctuation and flow metrics Develop a suitable indicator set - 8
9 No data High Lake Saimaa Bad Artíficial Fourth largest in Europe Area 4380 km 2 Lenght of shoreline km islands Drainage basin km
10 Modelled change of Lake Saimaa district (Ka = calculated as a mean of 19 scenarios) Temperature Precipitation Change Change Month Month
11 Changes in water level Reference Average a1b SMHI Had a1b SMHI Ec5 a1b DMI Arp a1b Ncar a1b Observations 76,30 76,20 Winter and spring waterlevels rising typical drawdown missing Summertime varies depending on scenarios 76,10 Water level (NN+m) 76,00 75,90 75,80 75,70 75,60 75,50 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec
12 Changes in water level Reference Average a1b SMHI Had a1b SMHI Ec5 a1b DMI Arp a1b Ncar a1b Observations ,30 Clear increase compared to ,20 76,10 Water level (NN+m) 76,00 75,90 75,80 75,70 75,60 Slight decrease in summer waterlevel compared to ,50 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec
13 Changes in outflow Reference Average a1b SMHI Had a1b SMHI Ec5 a1b DMI Arp a1b Ncar a1b 900 Winter and spring flow increases Outflow (m3/s) Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec
14 Changes in outflow Reference Average a1b SMHI Had a1b 900 SMHI Ec5 a1b DMI Arp a1b Ncar a1b Winter increase and summer decrease compared to Outflow (m3/s) Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec
15 The indicators used in the assessment General indicators (n= 2) Effects on biota (n = 7) Effects on the recreational use of the waterbody (n=18) Economic effects (n=7) Saimaa ringed seal Benthic fauna Macrophytes Fish stocks Birds Usability of the shores Boating Waterborne traffic Hydropower production and overflow bypass Floods Length of the ice covered season (days) Share of the days with the normal water level Change of the water level during the time span and Number of winters when the change of the water level has exceeded 20 cm Vertical extension of the sedge (Carex) belt Water depth within the sedge belt during pike spawning Rise of the water level during the nesting of birds ( and ) Stability of water level during four time periods critical for recreation Occurrence of extreme low and high water levels and flows Economic losses caused by the inconvenient water levels Water levels below the water borne traffic limit (W<75,10 m) Produced energy (GWh yr 1) at the power plants (Tainionkoski and Imatrankoski) Number of overflow bypass events at the Finnish and Russian hydropower plants Number of days flood level (W=76,50) is exceeded Risk of occurrence of slush ice floods Occurrence of flow exceeding 900 m3 s 1
16 Changes in indicators all indicators and all scenarios Class borders No impact: 0-1 % 0-2 d 0-0,03 m Slight impact: 2-15 % 3-10 d 0,04-0,15 m Moderate impact: % d 0,16-0,30 m n= 35 arvoa n = 90 arvoa n = 35 arvoa Very high impact: > 30 % > 20 d > 0,30 m
17 Effects on nesting of ringed seal Endemic seal Highly endangered Est. population size Est. pups born Year Source: Tero Sipilä & Matti Määttä
18 Effects on nesting of ringed seal ( ) 18 Average KA a1b SMH a1b SME a1b DMA a1b NCAA a1b 16 Suitable for seals 0,20m 14 Number of winters ,0-0,09 m 0,1-0,19 m 0,20-0,29 m More than 0,3 m Water fluctuation range
19 Effects on biota Littoral vegetation: increased vertical extension + more extensive vegetation : 23 cm : change > 15 cm : change + 7 -> 15 cm Might suffer on changes in dynamics Reproduction of northern pike: depth of water level on spawning ground (iceoff => 1 month) : - 9 cm : change > 27 cm : change > 40 cm Nesting of birds: water level rise during nesting time ( ) : 16 cm : change > 15 cm : change + 7 -> 15 cm
20 Recreational use Suitable water level for recreational use (75,8-76,1 m) : 34 % : increase 2 -> 12 % : increase 0 -> 13 % Modelled (VIRKI-model) losses for recreational use and boating : /year : reduction /y : increase /y
21 Effects on floods Average a1b SMHI Had a1b SMHI Ec5 a1b DMI Arp a1b Ncar a1b
22 Hydropower production Hydropower production increases : change 1 % - > + 14 % : change - 4 % -> + 18 % By-pass flows increases : increase milj. m 3 /y (or 3-13 m 3 /s) : milj. m 3 /year Especially problematic for Russian power plants with smaller capacity
23 Summary Spring flood dependent vegetation Reproduction of northern pike Ringed seal Recreational use Floods Water borne traffic Hydropower Indicator Vertical extension of sedge (Carex) Waterdepth on spawning ground +/- +/ Nesting condition Unsuitable water levels Exceeding of flood level Low water levels Tainionkoski Imatrankoski + + -/ -- -/
24 Uncertainly related to results Scenarios are in general uncertain Water outflow was based on current regulation practice Same model through whole year Operative use is usually more flexible All indicators are based on current situation biota indicators can change Ice cover was not modeled
25 Conclusions Indicators helps to evaluate direction of change and amount Significant changes in average water levels and flows especially during winter and spring Significant differences between scenarios Effects were both positive and negative It is possible to change regulation practice and diminish negative effect of climate change Possible adaptation measures Artificial nesting grounds for ringed seal? Check of house construction legislation? Change of regulation practice?
26 Thank you for your attention!
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