The gravity of status quo

Transcription

1 The gravty of status quo A revew of IEA s World Energy Outlook Klaus Mohn, Professor Unversty of Stavanger Busness School Hemholtz Research School on Energy Scenaros Stuttgart, 7 November Introducton What does methodology and model Authortatve reference document Van de Graaf (2012) Heubaum and Berman (2015) Scenaro approach to energy Nelsen and Karlsson (2007) Debate and dspute Mdttun and Baumgartner (1986) Gaede and Meadowcraft (2016) Metayer et al (2015) Methodology and model 2 1

2 Model and methodology IEA s World Energy Model (WEM): General overvew CO 2 prces Energy polcy Technology Socoeconomc drvers Supply Prmary demand Converson Fnal demand Demand drvers Coal Ol Gas Bomass Prces Trade Coal Ol Gas Nuclear Hydro Boenergy Renewables Coal upgradng Refnng Gas processng Power generaton Heat producton Bomass process Industry Feedstock Transport Resdental Servces Agrculture Value added Person klometer Tonne klometer Household sze Floor space Applances ownershp Energy flows CO 2 emssons Investment 3 Source: Internatonal Energy Agency World Energy Model Documentaton verson. OECD/IEA From economc actvty to energy demand Stylsed llustraton of demand modellng n WEM Economc actvty Econometrc analyss Demand for energy servces Cost mnmsaton Choce of technology and energy source Energy effcency Fnal energy demand E E( p, y; x) V t exp( Vt ) t exp( V ) pt t p t 4 2

3 Crude flows Trade n crude and ol products n WEM: Stylsed overvew Regon A Refnery capacty Trade n ol products Regon C Refnery capacty Trade n ol prducts Crude ol trade Trade n ol products Regon B Refnery capacty Regon D Trade n ol products Refnery capacty 5 Ol demand, cost-rankng, and ol supply Crude ol supply n the World Energy Model Global demand Producng felds Declne rates Cost data Requred ol producton NPV rankng of projects and countres Allocaton of producton between projects and countres 6 3

4 Energy and the macro economy Energy demand allowed to dverge between scenaros, Drvers of energy demand Economc growth Technologcal change Structural change Prces and polces 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Prmary energy demand and GDP Average annual growth (per cent) Current Polces New Polces 450 Scenaro 1% 0% Source: Internatonal Energy Agency World Energy Outlook IEA. Pars. Energy and the macro economy but economc growth s the same across scenaros Drvers of energy demand Economc growth Technologcal change Structural change Prces and polces Exogenous economc growth No varaton across scenaros 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Prmary energy demand and GDP Average annual growth (per cent) Current Polces New Polces 450 Scenaro Current Polces New Polces 450 Scenaro GDP growth 0% Source: Internatonal Energy Agency World Energy Outlook IEA. Pars. 4

5 Energy technology Black swan or Slow tran comng? Unt cost by technology Change (per cent; New Polces Scenaro) Solar energy (PV) Onshore wnd CCS Vehcle batteres Means to an end Modellng strategy Prces and polces Economc behavour Role of uncertanty Effcent lghtng Upstream ol and gas Source: Internatonal Energy Agency World Energy Outlook IEA. Pars. New renewable energy Installed capacty (GW), New Polces Scenaro Solar energy Wnd power 10 Source: de Vos og de Jager (2014). Blog-artcle. Energy Post (http.// 14 March. 5

6 The gravty of status quo Potental bas n data generaton, modellng, and applcaton Prmary energy demand by carrer (bn toe, New Polces Scenaro) Broadness & detal have a cost Model short on flexblty Assumptons are crucal Stakeholder nterests Transparency s key Other renewables Bo energy Hydro Nuclear Gas Ol Coal Current polces 2040 New Polces scenaro Source: Internatonal Energy Agency World Energy Outlook IEA. Pars. The gravty of status quo A revew of IEA s World Energy Outlook Klaus Mohn, Professor Unversty of Stavanger Busness School Hemholtz Research School on Energy Scenaros Stuttgart, 7 November