Presentation: Paul van Lieshout - Jacobs Consultancy Extreme Weather Events and Wind Energy Production Analysis

Transcription

1 Presentation: Paul van Lieshout - Jacobs Consultancy Extreme Weather Events and Wind Energy Production Analysis

2 Introductions and Objective The IPCC concludes that small changes in mean temperature will result in more extreme weather events. Such events could impact on the amount of energy that can be generated by wind turbines. Who s Jacobs credentials Climate Change is it happening? Is the wind more power full or more energetic? Does it affect the Gross and/or the Net AEP? Presentation s Objective is to provide some scientific rigor in the calculation of future, expected AEP production and impact on associated CAPEX and OPEX.

3 Summary - Renewables Wind Solar Biomass Energy from Waste Geothermal Hydro Desalination at Cape Verde Jacobs Consultancy Wind Solar Biomass Energy from Waste Geothermal Marine Tidal Wave Storage Systems RAPS/Hybrid Key Capabilities Site prospecting and prefeasibility assessment Resource monitoring and energy yields Telecom, noise, glare, aviation impacts Environmental Impact Assessment (incl noise, telecom, airport, glare), permitting and consenting Network analysis including connection studies Project design and specification Project infrastructure design and specification Procurement Construction management Operation and maintenance Due diligence, insurance and risk assessment Owner s Engineer, Lender s Engineer, Independent Engineer Flywheel systems Tidal Power Generation Project

4 Summary - Renewables Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems. IPCC -CLIMATE CHANGE 2014 Synthesis Report Scientific research indicates that climate change will cause hurricanes and tropical storms to become more intense lasting longer, unleashing stronger winds, and causing more damage to coastal ecosystems and communities. Changes in many extreme weather and climate events have been observed since about Some of these changes have been linked to human influences, including a decrease in cold temperature extremes, an increase in warm temperature extremes, an increase in extreme high sea levels and an increase in the number of heavy precipitation events in a number of regions. IPCC -CLIMATE CHANGE 2014 Synthesis Report The Nature Conservancy - USA 4

5 What is the long term wind resource at a site? The long term data set is the foundation for accurate financial analysis. It s the corner stone to asses the financial and commercial viability of a proposed wind project. The principle to calculate this long term data set is simple: Measure wind speed at the proposed Site (and obtain a long term data set measured at a nearby active station ) Correlate the two data sets Find a relationship between the short term site measurements and a long term data set. Predict long term Site wind resource Use the long term data set from the Met station together with the established relationship between Met station and Site data to calculate the long term site wind resource. 5

6 Wind resource from short term to long term Measure wind speed at the proposed Site (and obtain a long term data set measured at a nearby active station ) months of site measurements

7 Wind resource correlation Correlate the two data sets Long term data set from nearby location: 30-year without gaps Consistent data Representative regarding project site Measurement period incl. site record months of site measurements Calculate relationship or correlation between short term and long term data for the overlapping period Is the long term data set consistent and changing?

8 site anemometer wind speed [m/s] Weibull correlation Visual comparison of the numerical and analytical correlation curves: Straight Line and Weibull Correlation functions measured data straight line correlation straight line through origin correlation weibull fit met station wind speed [m/s]

9 Wind resource predict future site resource Predict long term Site wind resource 30 future wind speed based on long term record and correlation analysis 25 Average site wind speed Average reference site wind speed Can we expect changes in the environment over the next 30-years?

10 Long term = 30-years The WMO defines four levels of climate references (ref. Guide to Climatological Practices, WMO-No 100): 1) Climate Standard Normal. This is defined as a fixed 30-year period i.e , , etc. 2) Climate Normals. This is defined as any period of 30 full years 3) Period Averages. This is over 10 fully years (starting with 01/01 of a decade, that is starting in 1991, 2001, 2011 etc. ) 4) Provisional Averages. Any other averages. 10

11 AEP: availabilities, losses, uncertainties Wind resource ( ½ ρ v 3 A) Power curve (air density, TI, wind shear, technology) Efficiencies (wake effects, electrical etc.) Availabilities (MTTF) turbine and BoP Scheduled maintenance Unscheduled maintenance Availabilities (MTTR and MTTF) (access, grid etc.) Changes to environment affecting efficiencies and availabilities (new wind farms, more storms etc.) Uncertainties

12 Summary - Renewables Potential effect of Climate Change Wind speed (distributions) Gross AEP, hysteresis, availability Flooding availability (accessibility, MTTR) Snowfall (winter storms and ice events) AEP (PC degradation), availability (accessibility, MTTR) Droughts/fires availability (incl loss of equipment WTG/BoP/Grid) Temperature (incl agricultural growing seasons) AEP (air density, surface roughness length) Soil erosion - availability (accessibility, MTTR) Baseline AEP Site classification Availability, efficiency WTGs/BoP Capex, Opex 12

13 13 Climate Change long term record

14 long term record: wind and temperature Outlier Q3 Median Q1 Outlier 14

15 long term record: wind and temperature 15

16 16 Weibull parameters

17 Climate indicators: are they changing? Mean value Min and max values Standard deviation Variance Kurtosis Skewness Weibull parameters Wind and Gross AEP impact Is the long term data set consistent and changing? Yes it is consistent No it isn t changing from a Gross AEP viewpoint (in most situations) 17

18 Increase in k-factor results in lower AEP Increase in Lambda increases AEP Climate Change is a slow process (relative to project life time and up to a possible tipping point ) overall little gain/loss expected with regards to Gross AEP over project life time (but location dependent) But can we expect changes in the environment over the next 30-years that could affect the Net AEP? 18

19 Storms and Net AEP Possible increase in storms (related to temp increases): Could increase site classification (but this is site dependent!) Could affect MTTR (access) 19

20 Flooding and Net AEP Flooding, excessive rain and snow can result in difficult access for possibly prolonged periods, affecting MTTR and thus AEP. 20

21 Accessibility and Net AEP WTG (BoP) components fail (bathtub curve MTTF) Availability restored based on MTTR MTTR based on accessibility (flooding, erosion etc.) Accessibility assessed as hrs/yr not accessible (statistical value) 21

22 Ice/snow and Net AEP

23 Climate Change and changes in wind resource, rain and temperature can have a distinct effect on project equipment (i.e. turbines, Balance of Plant and grid) and as such will have to be taken into account when conducting AEP studies. 23

24 There is a rigorous framework to address the above issues using statistical analysis. Climate Change can and should be included in future AEP calculation. Possibly small (pos) effect on Gross AEP But possibly small negative effects on Net AEP due to component availability issues (access-mttr) (site dependent ) Summary Mitigation measures can be taken (MTTR) Site dependent issues with regards to cooling and site classification.

25 Renewable Technologies Wind Solar Biomass Energy from Waste Geothermal Hydro Contact details: Paul van Lieshout Jacobs Consultancy Technical Director Wind and Renewables + 44 (0) (0) mobile 7th Floor, Stockbridge House, Trinity Gardens, Newcastle Upon Tyne, NE1 2HJ Paul.VanLieshout@jacobs.com