After Paris Agreement: Way forward for Bangladesh

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1 National Sharing Workshop On Enhancing Climate Resilience Practice and Governance in partnership between Department of Disaster Science and Management and Department of Public Administration University of Dhaka with Islamic Relief Bangladesh during October 2016 at Sinate Bhaban, DU After Paris Agreement: Way forward for Bangladesh A.K.M Saiful Islam Institute of Water Institute and Flood of Water Management and Flood (IWFM) Management (IWFM) Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)

2 CO2 constantly increasing from pre-industrial period (1880) and so does the temperature

3 Global temperature constantly rising since 1880 Global mean temperatures in July 2016 were the warmest on record not just for July, but for any month dating to the late 1800s, according to four separate newly-released analyses. This July temperature anomaly of 0.84 degrees Celsius above average , according to NASA. NASA, 2016

4 Rising temperature causes Melting of Arctic Sea Ice Images gathered from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program of NASA show the minimum Arctic sea ice concentration 1979 (left), 2003 (center) and 2012 (right) Yellow line represents Area 30 years before

5 Global Mean Sea level rise is about 20 cm! Sea level rise is caused primarily by two factors related to global warming: the added water from melting land ice and the expansion of sea water as it warms. This chart derived from coastal tide gauge data, shows how much sea level changed from about 1870 to IPCC (2013)

6 Global Temperature will constantly increase (IPCC, 2016) for all RCP scenarios

7 GHG Emission Scenarios -increases-continue-hitting-40-billion-tons-per-year-in-2013/

8 The Paris Agreement Limiting global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius efforts To pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C. National emission targets regularly reviewed and tightened Net-zero emissions gases by mid-21st century of greenhouse Developed countries provide 100 billion USD per year between Bildquelle:

9 Pledges made for the Paris agreement on climate change last winter would lead to global temperature rise of 2.6 to 3.1 C by the end of the century, The Paris Agreement was a historical achievement for the world's response to climate change, aiming at limiting warming to well 2 C. furthermore agreed that they should strive to limit temperature rise even further, to 1.5 C. Pledges made for the Paris agreement on climate change last winter would lead to global temperature rise of 2.6 to 3.1 C by the end of the century, according to a new analysis published in the journal Nature. The researchers also examined what additional measures would be necessary after 2030 to limit future temperature rise to 2 C or 1.5 C in Rogelj et al (2016)

10 Implications of climate change for Bangladesh Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries considering climate change due to its geographic location, high population density, poverty and natural disasters. Country is sufferings from a number of natural disasters such as monsoon floods, early pre-monsoon flash floods, heavy rainfall and landslides, cyclones and storm surges, thunderstorms, hail stones, lightening and droughts etc. Climate change will pose additional threats to the existing environmental issues of the countries.

11 Heatwave during 6-30 April 2016 A total of 57 people died during May 2016 hit by the Lightening GLD 360 data on 12 May 153,621 strokes detected GLD 360 data on 13 May 242,570 strokes detected Farmers are working during thunder storms Without any protection

12 Devastating Flash floods hit the northeast region of Bangladesh during April Flash flood and hailstorm has caused extensive damage ato mature and half-mature Boro paddy in haor (large marshy land) areas Rubber dam to protect from flash Flood constructed by LGED Damage of the crops due to Flash flood during April 2016 Meghalaya, Tripura and Barak hilly basins Heavy rainfall during April

13 Cyclone Roanu landfalls in Bangladesh on 21 st May 2016 and killed about 24 people, damage crops, fisheries in the central & southeast coastal regions

14 Recent Floods in Bangladesh and South Asia Floods in Bangladesh 2016 Floods in China 2016 Floods in Nepal 2016 Floods in India 2016 Floods in Pakistan 2016 Floods in Bhutan 2016

15 Global warming will exceed 1.5C by 2025 and 2C by 2040 Near surface global annual mean warming since pre-industrial for simulations from CMIP5, CMIP3 and by a HadCM3 perturbed parameter experiments of SRES A1B and the RCPs. Both concentration and emissions driven simulations. 50% models Betts et al. (2011)

16 Temperature Anomaly ( 0 C) relative to Temperature Anomaly ( 0 C) relative to Both observation and predictions indicate constant rise of temperature throughout the century Temperature anomaly based on the observed data of the 24 BMD stations ( ) Increasing trend ranging between 3.24 C to 5.77 C under RCP 8.5 ACCESS1_CSIRO-CCAM-1391M CNRM-CM5_SMHI-RCA4 EC-EARTH_SMHI-RCA4 MIROC5_SMHI-RCA4 MPI-ESM-LR_MPI-REMO2009 CCSM4_CSIRO-CCAM-1391M CNRM-CM5_CSIRO-CCAM-1391M IPSL-CM5A-MR_SMHI-RCA4 MPI-ESM-LR_CSIRO-CCAM-1391M MPI-ESM-LR_SMHI-RCA Fahad et al. (2016)

17 Temperature Anomaly ( C) relative to for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s Highest increase of temperature in February during 2080s ranging between 3.6 C and 9.8 C. July, August and September temperature increase ranging between 0.7 and 4 C. Fahad et al. (2016)

18 Change of Precipitation in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s from Highest increase in rainfall to be occurred during the pre-monsoon period (i.e. March, April and May) ranging between 125mm 615mm. Pre-monsoon and Monsoon rain increasing Winter rain decreasing Fahad et al. (2016)

19 Changes of extreme maximum and minimum temperature It means extremity of temperature would become more prominent from the mid to end of the 21st Century. From distribution of minimum temperature, TNn (minimum of daily minimum temperature) shows a reduction of its extremity in future years. TXx- maximum of daily maximum temperature TNn- minimum of daily minimum temperature Hasan et al. (2016)

20 Changes of extreme 1mm and 50mm daily rainfall A clear shift of Rx1 has been observed from the 2020s time period. Annual Rx1 will increase up to 30 days per year in the 21st Century. Rx50 will drastically increase over the hilly region than flatter part of the country. an increasing shift in mean probability at 2050s and 2080s time period. Rx1- number of days When rainfall > 1 mm Rx50- number of days when rainfall > 50mm Hasan et al. (2016)

21 Water Resources Impact Assessment: SWAT Modeling for the Brahmaputra basin The Brahmaputra is a major transboundary river which drains an area of around 530,000 km 2 and crosses four different countries: China (50.5% of total catchment area), India (33.6%), Bangladesh (8.1%) and Bhutan (7.8%) (Gain et al. 2013). Average discharge of the Brahmaputra is approximately 20,000 m 3 /s. The climate of the basin is monsoon driven with a distinct wet season from June to September, which accounts for 60 70% of the annual rainfall (Immerzeel, 2008). Mohammed et al. (2016)

22 Changes of flow in terms of percentage (left) and total flow (right) Monsoon (June-Sep) will be more wetter than present time which will increase chances of floods Mohammed et al. (2016)

23 Changes in annual peak flow and low flow Return Period (years) Change in Flow of 2020s Compar ed to Baseline Period (%) Change in Flow of 2050s Compar ed to Baseline Period (%) Change in Flow of 2080s Compar ed to Baseline Period (%) Mohammed et al. (2016)

24 Coastal modeling using Delft3D hydrodynamic model DELFT3D- FLOW is a multi-dimensional (2D or 3D) hydrodynamic (and transport) simulation program which calculates unsteady flow and transport phenomena that result from tidal and meteorological forcing on a rectilinear or a curvilinear, boundary fitted grid. Tazkia et al. (2016)

25 Inundation map for 1.0m and 0.5m Sea Level Rise (SLR) Inundation area will be increased under increased with SLR 0.5m SLR 1.0m SLR Tazkia et al. (2016)

26 Changes of Inundation area due SLR SLR Inundated Area (sq.km) Percent of total Bangladesh Percent of Coastal Zone Affected population (million) 0.5m m m m (without Polder) Tazkia et al. (2016)

27 Inundation statistics for the Sundarbans the world largest mangrove forest SLR (m) Inundated Area (km 2 ) % of inundation Area 0.5m m m Tazkia et al. (2016)

28 Changes of the inundation and impact of the coastal cyclones (SIDR, AILA and Roanu) due to SLR Cyclone SIDR Nov WL during SIDR at Hiron point WL during Roanu at Hiron point e Model Observed -2 5/19/2016 0:00 5/19/ :00 5/20/2016 0:00 5/20/ :00 5/21/2016 0:00 WL during Roanu at Khepupara Model Observed f Pressure Field during SIDR Pressure Field during AILA 0-1 WL during SIDR at Khepupara WL during AILA at Hiron point -2 19/5/2016 0:00 19/5/ :00 20/5/2016 0:00 20/5/ :00 21/5/2016 0:00 Calibration and Validation of Model for SIDR, AILA and ROANU at Hiron point and Khepupara. Suffix a,b,c for SIDR. Suffix d for AILA. Suffix e,f for ROANU. Shaha et al. (2016)

29 Changes of inundation patterns or cyclone SIDR (2007), AILA (2009) and Roanu (2016) Conditi ons SIDR AILA ROANU SIDR AILA Roanu Inund ation area % of Count ry Affect ed Popul ation Inun dati on area % of Count ry Affect ed Popul ation Inun datio n area % of Coun try Affect ed Popula tion Only cyclone cyclone and 0.5m SLR cyclone and 1m SLR cyclone and 1.5m SLR Shaha et al. (2016)

30 Crop Modeling using DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer) Extreme climate change will pose threat on various dimensions and Agriculture is one of them. About 75% of our agricultural land is rice and it covers 28% of GDP. Real Name Height Duration of growth Grain quality Brridhan29 95 cm 160 days Medium Yield (Kg/hectares) 7500 Hasan et al. (2016) Developed on 1994

31 Hasan et al. (2016) Change of Rice Yield in the near future ( ) Change of Rice Yield in the fur future ( )

32 Change of Rice Yield in the near future ( ) Hasan et al. (2016)

33 Changes of the Yield of Boro rice in Bangladesh in 2030 s ( ) and 2080 s ( ) The yield of Boro crop trend is gradually decreasing at an alarming rate. Hasan et al. (2016) Under high emission RCP 8.5 scenarios the mean yield of Boro will decrease about 10% in 2030 s to 20% in 2080 s.

34 Summary of the impact assessment for Bangladesh beyond Paris Agreement (>2C) In Bangladesh, both mean maximum and minimum temperature will rise and rainfall will increase slightly. Extreme events (heatwave, extreme on day rainfall etc.) will be more frequent. Floods will be more frequent and a 100 year return period flood will have about 8% more discharge than present. The 0.5m SLR will inundate additional 4.3% of the coastal areas of the country and 11.37% of Sundarbans area. Cyclone SIDR under the 0.5m SLR will inundate additional 2.6% of the area and effect 1.4 million more people. Under high emission RCP 8.5 scenarios the mean yield of Boro rice will decrease about ~10% during 2030 s and ~20% during 2080s.

35 Greenhouse Gas Emitter

36 Reduction of CO2 emissions by Major greenhouse gas emitters in their by Intended Nationally Determined Contributions or INDCs Country Base year Pledge to cut emissions EU % by 2030 US % to 28% by 2025 China 2005 lower emissions per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% by 2030 India to 35 % by 2030 Brazil %

37 Reduction of CO2 pledges by South Asian countries in their INDCs Country Afghanistan Co2 emission reduction Pledge in INDCs 13.6% conditional Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Pakistan Sri Lanka 5% unconditional and 15% conditional Pledge to be carbon neutral & to make 60% of the country forest 33 to 35 % by 2030 compared to 2005 levels & 40% of electricity from non-fossil fuel sources 10% unconditional 24% conditional No measurable target 7% unconditional 23% conditional

38 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) - Mitigation Projected emissions reductions in the power, transport and industry (energy) by

39 Mitigation Program (BCCSAP, 2009)

40 Conditional Mitigation (INDCs, 2015)

41 Adaptation Action Bangladesh (INDCs, 2015) Key Areas to address adverse impacts of climate change Food security, livelihood and health protection (incl. water security) Comprehensive disaster management Coastal Zone Management including Salinity Intrusion control Flood Control and Erosion protection Building Climate Resilient Infrastructure Increased Rural Electrification Enhanced Urban Resilience Ecosystem based adaptation (including forestry co-management) Community based conservation of wetlands and coastal areas Policy and Institutional Capacity Building

42 Adaptation Priorities for Bangladesh (BCCSAP, 2009)

43 Climate finance pledges at COP20 and COP21

44 Receipts of Multi-lateral and Bi-lateral climate finance (As of October 2015)

45 Climate Finance in Bangladesh Bangladesh is mobilizing to get funding from the Green Climate fund In the past Bangladesh has established two climate funds: Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund (BCCTF) by own budget allocation of $100m Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund (BCCRF) is a multi-donor trust fund for climate change has channeled over $188m in grant funds. CPD, 2015

46 Way Forward for Bangladesh Bangladesh has a good strategic framework aimed at tackling climate change National Action Plan on Adaptation (NAPA) of 2005 Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) of Increasing resilience to the impacts of climate change. Achieve low-carbon and resilient development. Beyond making financial commitments, industrialized countries must facilitate technology transfers, and more generally, adaptation to a low-carbon economy. Being one of the most vulnerable countries, Bangladesh must push for urgency to take immediate measures for limiting global warming below 1.5 degrees.

47 Thank you!

48 References Bala SK, Islam AKMS, Uddin MN, Adhikary S, Islam GMT, Fahad MGR, Sutradhar LC (2016) Composite vulnerability mapping of coastal Bangladesh using multivariate statistical approach. Ocean & Coastal Management (Under review). Mohammed K, Islam AKMS, Islam GMT, Bala SK, Khan MJU (2016) Climate change will increase floods and low flows of the Brahmaputra River. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering (Under Review). Islam AKMS, Paul S, Mohammed K, Billah M, Fahad MGR, Hasan MA, Islam GMT, Bala SK (2016) Hydrological response to climate change of the Brahmaputra basin using CMIP5 General Circulation Model ensemble. Journal of Water and Climate (Under Review). Fahad MG, Islam AKMS, Nazari R, Hasan MA, Islam GMT, Bala SK (2016) Regional changes of precipitation and temperature over Bangladesh using bias corrected multi-model ensemble projections considering high emission pathways. International Journal of Climatology (Under Review). Hasan MA, Islam AKMS, Akanda AS (2016) Climatic extremes from dynamically downscaled CMIP5 models over Bengal Delta under RCP scenarios: An advanced bias-correction approach with new gridded data. International Journal of Climatology (Under Review). Tazkia AR, Islam AKMS, Rahman MM, Krien Y, Durand F, Testut L, Islam GMT, Bala SK (2016) Sea level rise induced possible inundation patterns of the world's densely populated delta. Climatic Change (Under Review). Shaha PK, Tazkia AR, Islam AKMS, Rahman MM, Krien Y, Durand F, Testut L, Islam GMT, Bala SK (2016) Sea level rise induced possible inundation patterns of the world's densely populated delta. Climatic Change (Submitted). Hasan AS, Islam AKMS, Bala SK (2016) Impact of climate change on the production of Boro rice in Bangladesh using DSSAT crop model (In preparation). Holle RL and Islam, AKMS (2017) Lightning Fatalities in Bangladesh in May Proceedings of the 8th Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting Seattle, Washington, January 2017.