Pressures, in the Mediterranean Sea: The case of SESAME and PERSEUS projects. Vangelis Papathanassiou Research Director HCMR, Greece

Transcription

1 Pressures, in the Mediterranean Sea: The case of SESAME and PERSEUS projects Vangelis Papathanassiou Research Director HCMR, Greece

2 Outline 1. Drivers, Threats and Pressures 2. ( ) 1. Objectives 2. Main findings 3. Data availability 3. ( ) 1. Objectives/Project Summary 2. Consortium 3. Challenges and Work to be done 4. Conclusions/Suggestions and missing elements

3 Pressures Natural pressures come mainly from climatic variability that impacts the physical dynamics and hydrological structure Anthropogenic pressures come from the fast population growth in coastal areas and the increasing economic activities Pressures need to be managed though shared policy and decision making based on scientific knowledge Implementation of policies at EU (i.e. CFP, WFD, MSFD etc.) or Med level (e.g. ECAP) needs to be supported by new knowledge and innovative technologies (e.g. for new monitoring systems) N and P inputs, atmospheric and land-based sources (point and diffuse) and nutrient concentrations and ratios have changed the biogeochemical state of the sea in several areas and need to be investigated further

4 Pressures, Hazards and Threats tourism harmful algal blooms Industrial pollution urban pollution global warming aquaculture Maritime transport renewable energy coastal erosion exploration of resources over-fishing alien species agricultural pollution Stresses in the Med are shown sooner than the world ocean

5 Number of alien species in the European Seas 64 In the Med: Total 1412 Sept Exotic species, mainly of subtropical origin, are now wellestablished as they are favoured by temperature increase Zenetos et al., (2009)

6 Sea water temperature and alien species The example of the Aegean Sea, with mean increase of 1.8 o C over 20 years ( ) Alien anom 85 Hellenic Waters Anom r 2 =0.68, P= Raitsos et al., L & O,

7 Sustainable use of non-living resources Sustainable exploitation of non-living resources is very important (unique hydrography of the Med, with warm deep waters, deep-water mass formation ) Hydrocarbons exploration in under way in the eastern Med. Should avoid alteration of the ecosystems Significant questions on the regional and global (worldwide) importance of fluid vents and associated gas hydrate accumulations are pending Seabed mapping should be made (priority in DG MARE); identify and study the seepage ecosystems (ecosystem research on mud volcanoes)

8 Species Diversity Mediterranean Sea is one of the richest of the European seas with large variety of habitats Spatial coexistence of two types of biota: cold-temperate in the cold season (at least in the coldest parts of the basin) and tropical in the warm season Changes in the marine biodiversity have been documented in many parts of the region and are attributed to natural phenomena, global change and anthropogenic activities Decrease in Posidonia oceanica meadows may not only impair the ecosystem functioning, but have a consequence to the CO 2 sequestration in the Mediterranean

9 Scientific Objectives 1. Assess the changes or regime shifts in the SES ecosystems over the last 50 years and assess the potential mechanisms that relate these changes to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings 2. Assess the current status of the SES ecosystems through analysis of existing and newly collected data as well as through model simulations 3. Predict changes in the SES ecosystem responses to likely changes in climate and anthropogenic forcings during the next five decades 4. Assess and predict changes in the ability of the ecosystems to provide goods and services (with potentially high societal importance) Goods: tourism and fisheries Services: ecosystem stability through conservation of biodiversity, and mitigation of climate change through carbon sequestration

10 New data sets. Transects of expeditions Ten vessels simultaneously conducted multinational cruises March-April & August-September 2008 FR BG RO RU ES IT TU GR TR IS

11 Current status Impact of EMT (on the nutrient concentrations) Increased nutrient inputs Atmospheric inputs important to the budgets. BS State: recovering after the 90 s Deepening of the Deep Chl Maximum Depletion of nutrients and decrease in conc Prevalence of smaller size fractions of phytoplankton with autotrophic prokaryotes becoming important in the East Mesozooplankton variability Marked seasonality CS measurements indicate that there is significant natural capacity of the seafloor of the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea to absorb and store atmospheric CO 2

12 Posidonia oceanica Meadows ~1/3 of Posidonia oceanica meadows have been lost in the last 50 years. The density of P. oceanica seems to be decreased by about 50% Counting the decrease of the P. oceanica meadows, CO 2 sequestration in the Mediterranean seems to be less by 1/3 Duarte et al., 2010

13 Basin scale models: Changing SST patterns Spatial occurrences of the scleractinian coral Astroides Calycularis 20C Pleistocene fossils Zibrowius (1995) The C divides Bianchi (2007) February surface temperature (SXG) A1B Recent findings Grubelic et al (2004) 21C

14 Predict Ecosystem Changes: Precipitation, Nutrients and higher trophic levels ü In 2050, 1/4 of Mediterranean freshwater inputs is lost (from 1960) ü Nutrients variability may regionally decrease in the North but strongly increase in South & East ü Progressive warming evolves with a northward shift of the surface isotherm, paving the way for meridionalization processes in the basin ü Introduction of non-indigenous species of tropical origin show a wider basin-scale distribution ü Indigenous species with warm-water affinity expand their habitat ranges northward, sometimes at the expenses of the residential cold-water species Vichi et al. 2009

15 SESAME s databases historical, cruise and time series data (physical, chemical and biological) SESAME DATABASE No COUNTRY DATASETS GREECE 258 BELGIUM 24 BULGARIA 30 CROATIA 2 EYPT 3 FRANCE 24 ISRAEL 31 ITALY 98 MALTA 3 MOROCCO 1 ROMANIA 36 RUSSIA 35 SLOVENIA 7 SPAIN 21 TUNISIA 1 TURKEY 109 UKRAINE 24 All data will be publically available on April 2013 Stored in PANGAEA Database

16 Grant agreement no: Key Figures Ø Project Duration: 48 months Ø Start: 1st of January 2012 Ø 10 Work Packages Ø Budget 12,973, Ø 2297 man/months HCMR, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research

17 PERSEUS Partnership 21 countries 53 partners Ø 65 Institutes & Universities 2 Subcontractors More than 300 scientists

18 Project Summary 1. Identify the interacting patterns of natural and human-derived pressures, assess their impact on marine ecosystems and design an effective and innovative research framework based on sound scientific knowledge. 2. Design an innovative, small research vessel to serve as a scientific survey tool in very shallow areas. 3. Use appropriate scenarios to explore interactions between projected human-derived and natural pressures. 4. Develop a framework of scenario-based adaptive policies and management schemes to help in reaching GES. Help the selection and application of the appropriate descriptors and indicators of the MSFD in the SES. 5. Define and rank a feasible and realistic adaptation policy framework in order to design management schemes. 6. Promote the principles and objectives of MSFD across the SES.

19 Work Flow

20 Brief Overview Well-coordinated scientific research and socioeconomic analysis will be applied at a wideranging scale, from basin to coastal WP 1 & 2 working areas

21 Areas for demonstration of the MSFD principles & development of (APF) =EU studies =non- EU studies =Areas for development of APF

22 Conclusions/Suggestions Mediterranean is a very sensitive area, highly stressed ecosystems and very high species diversity Changes in biodiversity may affect the ecosystem functioning, even in the case of invasions by a single species Effects of anthropogenic impacts (e.g. eutrophication, environmental stressors and pollutants) are evident on structural and functional aspects of the Med ecosystems The potential of microbial-molecular parameters should be tested as classical taxonomy could benefit from molecular and genetic techniques

23 Missing Elements & Problems Scarcity of time series data and information Processes, pathways and fate of pollutants (especially micropollutants) are not well known Problems of pollution in the coastal zone persist and are mainly related to urban waste water Changes in productivity (resulting from nutrient loads) Seabed mapping is missing (priority in DG MARE) Ecological indicators are needed to capture the complexities of coastal systems which must be regularly monitored Sources of pollution and anthropogenic pressures must be identified (e.g. non-point sources) and the biological effects of long-range pollutants must be ascertained Monitoring capabilities have to be improved. MSFD in place

24 Thank you!