Method: Emission Inventories and Models

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1 Evalua&on of NO x and VOC emission inventories for the LA Basin using satellite, aircra> and ground measurements and regional model simula&ons during the CalNex study Si-Wan Kim and Regional Chemical Modeling group in NOAA/ESRL/CSD Tropospheric Chemistry group (NOAA/ESRL/CSD), P-3 and ground measurements CU, Volkamer group and Remote Sensing group (NOAA/ESRL/CSD), Twin-Otter and ground measurements U. of Bremen, NASA, KNMI, UC Berkeley-Cohen group, Satellite NO 2 column retrievals UC Berkeley-Harley group, California mobile emission inventory (Brian McDonald) EPA OAQPS and CARB, CalNex bottom-up emission inventories NO x emission: Incorporating accurate temporal changes in on-road mobile source emission is essential (e.g., annual trend, day of week cycle, diurnal profile). Potentially large errors in off-road/area/point source emissions. VOC (Vola&le Organic Compound) emission: Substantial differences among emission inventories. Recent bottom-up VOC emission underestimates model O 3 over the LA Basin.

2 Method: Emission Inventories and Models Emission Inventories for and Year NEI (Bo&om- up) Year EPA (Bo&om- up) CARB (Bo&om- up) (CO, NO x Inversion, NEI VOC) (, Updated VOC) UCB (Fuel- use based method)! On- road + point source CO, NO x NEI VOC Fine- resolujon ( km x km) models WRF- Chem NEI, CARB,,, UCB CMAQ EPA SimulaJon period May- July NO x emission trend (adapted from McDonald et al., 12) 3%- 1% reducjon both in NO x emission and observajons between and. On- road mobile NO x emission reducjon due to pollujon control and recession

3 Results 1. NO x emission across the LA Basin Average (normalized to UCB) Averages (All days) Emissions Satellite & models AMAX- DOAS & models CorrelaJon between model and obs. P3 & models ervajon With inversion () or on- road mobile inventory (UCB), model observajon, correlajon " Model NO 2 using NEI () needs to be reduced by %- 7% to agree with observajons in Error in emission from off- road/area/point source! spajal distribujon

4 ) Results 2. NO x emissions from area/point/off- road sources 3. NEI NEI NOx 9 NO X Emissions Large errors from Ship (port), Non- IPM area sources, Off- road 18 Fontana 16 Independent 1 Main St. esjmates Pomona (Millstein and Harley, 9; Riverside McDonald et al., 12) 6 (moles km -2 hr -1 ) NO 2 (ppbv) Main St. Pomona Fontana Riverside P3 Flight path P3 Flight path Main St. Pomona 18.8 Time Fontana Riverside 19. WRF-NEI WRF-CARB WRF- WRF-UCB WRF-UCB onroad WRF-NEI WRF-CARB WRF- WRF-UCB WRF-UCB onroad NO 2 (ppbv).1 2 (U NO 2 (ppbv) Time Fontana Main St. Industrial src. Pomona Riverside 19. WRF-NEI WRF-CARB WRF- WRF-UCB WRF-UCB onroad Ship ~96% reducjon from NEI StaJonary (point+area) ~62% reducjon Off- road ~8% reducjon Port 6// 6/21/ WRF-NEI WRF-CARB WRF- WRF-UCB WRF-UCB onroad Time (U Industrial src.

5 Results 3. Weekday vs. Weekend NO x RaJo = Sunday/Weekday Reduced heavy duty truck acjvity (Harley et al., ) Ratio (ENOx_Sunday/ENOx_Weekday) LA Basin Time () NEI EPA CARB UCB (ratio=.62) Measurements : - 6% NO x reduc&on in weekend compared to weekdays 3% weekend reducjon in NEI and CARB is not enough. Model using and UCB (% daily reducjon, up to 7% reducjon in hourly emission) agrees with observajons from different plakorms. Impact of weekly NO x cycle on surface O 3 is important. (e.g., Pollack et al., 12) 2 Decadal O 3 change Weekday Weekend Max.8hr avg. O 3 (ppbv) Mon-Fri Sat Sun 6 Year Wed (fit, -.8 ppbv yr -1 ) Sun (fit, -2. ppbv yr -1 ) 8 Max.8hr avg. O 3 (ppbv) Mon-Fri Sat Sun 6 Year Wed (fit,. ppbv yr -1 ) Sun (fit, -2.3 ppbv yr -1 ) 8 Sunday O 3 (2.3 ppbv/yr decrease) Wednesday

6 Results. VOC Emissions and Surface O 3 Ethene (moles km -2 hr -1 ) VOC emissions NEI NEI Onroad CARB EPA 12 C NEI 6 2 H C NEI Onroad 3 H 6 NEI Xylene NEI Onroad CARB CARB 8 EPA EPA Propene (moles km -2 hr -1 ) 6 2 Xylene (moles km -2 hr -1 ) HC3 (moles km -2 hr -1 ) 8 6 C 3 H 8, C H NEI NEI Onroad CARB Recent emission inventory CARB, EPA have low VOC relajve to NEI and. 9 8 Surface O 3 North Main St Fontana-Arrow Highway 9 8 O 3 (ppbv) NEI CARB UCB EPA 16 O 3 (ppbv) NEI CARB O 3 (ppbv) UCB EPA NEI CARB UCB EPA 16 O 3 (ppbv) NEI CARB UCB EPA 16 NEI (too much NO x ) and CARB (low VOC)! Under- predicjon of O 3 Close examinajon of VOC emission and its speciajon will be important.

J. Brioude. For further details, see J. Brioude et al. (2013, ACP)

J. Brioude. For further details, see J. Brioude et al. (2013, ACP) Top-down estimate of surface flux in the Los Angeles Basin using a mesoscale inverse modeling technique: assessing anthropogenic emissions of CO,NOx and CO2 and their impacts. J. Brioude Contributing authors:

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