Method: Emission Inventories and Models
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1 Evalua&on of NO x and VOC emission inventories for the LA Basin using satellite, aircra> and ground measurements and regional model simula&ons during the CalNex study Si-Wan Kim and Regional Chemical Modeling group in NOAA/ESRL/CSD Tropospheric Chemistry group (NOAA/ESRL/CSD), P-3 and ground measurements CU, Volkamer group and Remote Sensing group (NOAA/ESRL/CSD), Twin-Otter and ground measurements U. of Bremen, NASA, KNMI, UC Berkeley-Cohen group, Satellite NO 2 column retrievals UC Berkeley-Harley group, California mobile emission inventory (Brian McDonald) EPA OAQPS and CARB, CalNex bottom-up emission inventories NO x emission: Incorporating accurate temporal changes in on-road mobile source emission is essential (e.g., annual trend, day of week cycle, diurnal profile). Potentially large errors in off-road/area/point source emissions. VOC (Vola&le Organic Compound) emission: Substantial differences among emission inventories. Recent bottom-up VOC emission underestimates model O 3 over the LA Basin.
2 Method: Emission Inventories and Models Emission Inventories for and Year NEI (Bo&om- up) Year EPA (Bo&om- up) CARB (Bo&om- up) (CO, NO x Inversion, NEI VOC) (, Updated VOC) UCB (Fuel- use based method)! On- road + point source CO, NO x NEI VOC Fine- resolujon ( km x km) models WRF- Chem NEI, CARB,,, UCB CMAQ EPA SimulaJon period May- July NO x emission trend (adapted from McDonald et al., 12) 3%- 1% reducjon both in NO x emission and observajons between and. On- road mobile NO x emission reducjon due to pollujon control and recession
3 Results 1. NO x emission across the LA Basin Average (normalized to UCB) Averages (All days) Emissions Satellite & models AMAX- DOAS & models CorrelaJon between model and obs. P3 & models ervajon With inversion () or on- road mobile inventory (UCB), model observajon, correlajon " Model NO 2 using NEI () needs to be reduced by %- 7% to agree with observajons in Error in emission from off- road/area/point source! spajal distribujon
4 ) Results 2. NO x emissions from area/point/off- road sources 3. NEI NEI NOx 9 NO X Emissions Large errors from Ship (port), Non- IPM area sources, Off- road 18 Fontana 16 Independent 1 Main St. esjmates Pomona (Millstein and Harley, 9; Riverside McDonald et al., 12) 6 (moles km -2 hr -1 ) NO 2 (ppbv) Main St. Pomona Fontana Riverside P3 Flight path P3 Flight path Main St. Pomona 18.8 Time Fontana Riverside 19. WRF-NEI WRF-CARB WRF- WRF-UCB WRF-UCB onroad WRF-NEI WRF-CARB WRF- WRF-UCB WRF-UCB onroad NO 2 (ppbv).1 2 (U NO 2 (ppbv) Time Fontana Main St. Industrial src. Pomona Riverside 19. WRF-NEI WRF-CARB WRF- WRF-UCB WRF-UCB onroad Ship ~96% reducjon from NEI StaJonary (point+area) ~62% reducjon Off- road ~8% reducjon Port 6// 6/21/ WRF-NEI WRF-CARB WRF- WRF-UCB WRF-UCB onroad Time (U Industrial src.
5 Results 3. Weekday vs. Weekend NO x RaJo = Sunday/Weekday Reduced heavy duty truck acjvity (Harley et al., ) Ratio (ENOx_Sunday/ENOx_Weekday) LA Basin Time () NEI EPA CARB UCB (ratio=.62) Measurements : - 6% NO x reduc&on in weekend compared to weekdays 3% weekend reducjon in NEI and CARB is not enough. Model using and UCB (% daily reducjon, up to 7% reducjon in hourly emission) agrees with observajons from different plakorms. Impact of weekly NO x cycle on surface O 3 is important. (e.g., Pollack et al., 12) 2 Decadal O 3 change Weekday Weekend Max.8hr avg. O 3 (ppbv) Mon-Fri Sat Sun 6 Year Wed (fit, -.8 ppbv yr -1 ) Sun (fit, -2. ppbv yr -1 ) 8 Max.8hr avg. O 3 (ppbv) Mon-Fri Sat Sun 6 Year Wed (fit,. ppbv yr -1 ) Sun (fit, -2.3 ppbv yr -1 ) 8 Sunday O 3 (2.3 ppbv/yr decrease) Wednesday
6 Results. VOC Emissions and Surface O 3 Ethene (moles km -2 hr -1 ) VOC emissions NEI NEI Onroad CARB EPA 12 C NEI 6 2 H C NEI Onroad 3 H 6 NEI Xylene NEI Onroad CARB CARB 8 EPA EPA Propene (moles km -2 hr -1 ) 6 2 Xylene (moles km -2 hr -1 ) HC3 (moles km -2 hr -1 ) 8 6 C 3 H 8, C H NEI NEI Onroad CARB Recent emission inventory CARB, EPA have low VOC relajve to NEI and. 9 8 Surface O 3 North Main St Fontana-Arrow Highway 9 8 O 3 (ppbv) NEI CARB UCB EPA 16 O 3 (ppbv) NEI CARB O 3 (ppbv) UCB EPA NEI CARB UCB EPA 16 O 3 (ppbv) NEI CARB UCB EPA 16 NEI (too much NO x ) and CARB (low VOC)! Under- predicjon of O 3 Close examinajon of VOC emission and its speciajon will be important.
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