edp wind installed capacity in 2006 totaled 1,568 MW (of which 29 MW in France) or 8% above our target for 2006 (including AE acquisition)

Transcription

1 EDP Business Plan 2010 January 2007 Electricity Museum - Lisbon edp wind installed capacity in 2006 totaled 1,568 MW (of which 29 MW in France) or 8% above our target for 2006 (including AE acquisition) Galicia 153 MW Asturias 130 MW France - Bretagne 29 MW Castilla-León 286 MW Aragón 273 MW Portugal 326 MW Castilla-La-Mancha 245 MW Islas Canarias 26 MW Andalucía 99 MW Note: Installed Capacity in terms of gross MWs and including Agrupación Eólica (146 MW in Spain and 9 MW in France) 1

2 !" Expansion to France and Belgium, Agrupación Eólica acquisition and wind auction in Portugal are the Total edp wind pipeline breakdown * 1,850 3, % 21% 60% 1,900 markets Portugal Spain 1,200 drivers for a 90% growth of edp s pipeline since July 2006 (Jul-06) (Dec-06) Under construction Advanced Stage** Under development * Adding 970 MW to YE 2010 (140 MW from Portuguese tender (Oct-06) and 830 MW of Spanish and International ) ** Advanced stage: farms with high probability of success (with grid connection rights or advanced stage of licensing) # $ % Europe - edp wind gross installed capacity x2.7 1,568 2,200 3,000 3,600 4,200 12% 22% 66% PT SP 2.7x growth in following delivery of in Iberia and expansion into new markets (France & Belgium) edp capex in wind capacity Accumulated ( m) 290 1,710 Portugal * Spain markets 630 2,630 Total Capex in Spain focused in premium locations with load factors above the sector s average (27% vs. 26%) Avg. capex/mw increases to 1.3m by 2010 mainly due to a turbine s sellers market and more advanced technology (with higher associated returns) * Capex does not include 500m related to the 1,200 MW Portuguese tender for wind power licenses that the consortium Eólicas de Portugal won in Oct-06, and in which edp has a 40% stake - This stake will be Equity Consolidated 2

3 & ' targeting greenfield projects and capacity in advanced stage of licensing, namely in Europe Focus on attractive markets both in terms of stability, profitability and potential growth (Priority markets: France, Italy and possibly UK and Poland) North America edp will use its competitive position and knowledge of the sector to analyze and develop its entry into the North American market, namely through the acquisition of local wind farms promoters and possibly the contracting of an experienced local team for greenfield growth ($ & SPAIN Regulatory framework is currently under review; Final decision is expected by Feb/Apr-07 edp believes that the current draft will be revised in order to allow Spain to achieve its targets in terms of renewables capacity PORTUGAL FRANCE New regulatory framework fully stabilised since Feb-05 Tariffs are guaranteed for 15 years period; Tariffs annual increase indexed to CPI; After 15 years period, tariff converges to market price plus a premium for the sale of green certificates. Low risk remuneration for projects due to fixed tariffs and periods - Remuneration in France is based on a tariff fixed by the government (granted for a period of 15 years); After entry in operation tariff grows at a K rate over a 15 years period (CPI K); From the 16th year onwards, tariff should converge to market price BELGIUM Remuneration negotiated directly between wind promoter and distributor for a 5-10 years period (based on market price plus a premium for the sale of green certificates) 3

4 )* $ $ +$ Capacity breakdown by technology Gamesa Vestas GE Neo-Desa 1,544 MW 3,111 MW Turbine needs until 2008 fully contracted (GE, Vestas, Enercon and Gamesa) 1,568 MW 16% 6% 9% 20% 48% 2006 Capacity Mostly with Enercon, Vestas, GE and Gamesa Contracted Turbines TOTAL Diversified portfolio per turbine supplier reduces technological risk and increases bargaining power Beyond 2008: - Portuguese tender for new capacity (until 2012) fully contracted with Enercon; - For other markets edp will benefit from special agreements with some of its major suppliers,$ Ongoing projects Biomass 50/50 Join-Venture with Altri, #2 forestry owner and wood purchaser in Portugal Stable regulatory framework: tariff guaranteed for 15 years (possibility of extension to 25 years) Construction of 8 power plants until 2010, with a total capacity of 108 MW Avg. estimated capex of 2.5m/MW Impact on Business Plan Gross Installed Capacity Solar Biomass CAPEX Acc ( m) Solar 50 MW new capacity in Granada (Spain) Avg. estimated capex of 4/MW Waves R&D project of Breakwave technology (1 MW - North of Portugal) Biomass Solar Total Total 4

5 -)$ % % 2005 Target 2010 INSTALLED CAPACITY Gross & Consolidated Gross Consolidated ,400 4, ,800 3, Focus on delivery in Iberia and pipeline build-up in other markets (France & Belgium) Expansion outside markets where edp is currently present not considered in this Business Plan WIND OUTPUT GWh 877 8,800 Avg. load factor of 27% by 2010 reflecting premium locations namely in Spain (sector avg. 26%) EBITDA m 70 > 50% CAGR Does not reflect Portuguese auction pipeline (to be Equity Consolidated) CAPEX Accumulated : 2,910m : 2,630m : 280m Increase of avg. capex/mw to 1.3m by 2010 due to more advanced technology and international expansion 5