GEO 827: Hyperspectral RS and Land Surface Model Benchmarking
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1 GEO 827: Hyperspectral RS and Land Surface Model Benchmarking November 10 & 12, 2015 Kyla Dahlin Assistant Professor, Geography Department
2 Outline for the next 2 days Intro to Kyla Intro to Hyperspectral RS Project examples Lab exploring imaging spectroscopy in ERDAS Intro to Land Surface Models & Benchmarking Project example Lab simple climate envelope modeling in R
3 Climate and Plants Holdridge Life Zones (1947)
4 Climate Change and Plants light wind /surface roughness CO 2 dark albedo biogeochemical cycling water
5 History of Climate Change Research 1824: Joseph Fourier figures out that the Earth s surface would be colder in the absence of an atmosphere ( Remarques generals sur les temperatures du globe terrestre et des espaces planetaires. Annales de Chemie et de Physique 27: ) 1861: John Tyndall discovers that water vapor, CO 2 & CH 4 trap heat, O 2 and N 2 do not. ( On the absorption and radiation of heat by gases and vapours Philosophical Magazine 4 & 22: , ) 1896: Svante Arrhenius estimates that a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 will raise surface temperatures by 4 o C. ( On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground. Philosophical Magazine 41: ) slide info from John Holdren AAAS Climate50
6 Mauna Loa Observatory Current concentration = ppm (co2now.org) Tans & Keeling NOAA
7 What are Climate Models? Gridded mathematical representations of the Earth System ~40 around the world HUGELY computationally expensive run on supercomputers In the US there are 2 global climate models: National Center for Atmospheric Research s Community Earth System Model (CESM) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab s ESM
8 What are Climate Models?
9 What are Climate Models? Operate with varying degrees of complexity in terms of Spatial scale Temporal scale (?) Parts of the Earth system included Processes included
10 What do people do with ESMs? Try to understand how the atmosphere works Try to understand how the oceans work Try to understand ocean-atmosphere interactions Try to understand how the land surface interacts with the atmosphere Try to understand land-ocean-atmosphere interactions Predict what the future planet will look like
11 NCAR s CESM Hurrell et al 2013 (D2L)
12 NCAR s CESM Alexander & Easterbrook 2011
13 NCAR s Community Land Model (CLM) The land is a critical interface through which: 1. Climate and climate change impacts humans and ecosystems and 2. Humans and ecosystems can force global environmental and climate change slide from Dr. Peter Lawrence, NCAR
14 slide from Dr. Peter Lawrence, NCAR Land Surface in the Climate System 1. Surface Energy Fluxes: - Solar Energy Fluxes (Albedo Vegetation, Snow, Soils) - Long Wave Energy Fluxes (Surface Temp & Emissivity) - Latent Heat Fluxes (Transpiration, Evaporation) - Sensible Heat Fluxes (Surface Temp & Roughness) 2. Surface Hydrology: - Rain and Snow (Vegetation, Snow Pack, Runoff) - Transpiration, Evaporation, Snow melt, Sublimation - Soil Hydrology 10 Soil Layers in CLM (Richards Eqns) - Deep Aquifer recharge and drainage (Top Model) 3. Biogeochemistry (Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles): - Plant Photosynthesis and Respiration 6 CO H 2 O + light -> C 6 H 12 O O 2 - Carbohydrates are allocated to Leaves, Roots, Wood - Leaves, roots and wood become litter, debris, soil C - Organic decomposition and fire remove carbon - Nitrogen is cycled impacting Kyla growth Dahlin - GEO827 and decay Slide 4 Land Cover Change
15 Community Land Model (CLM 4.5) subgrid tiling structure Landunit Vegetated Gridcell Lake TBD MD Urban HD Glacier Crop G L UT,H,M C1I C2I V PFT1 V PFT2 C1U C2U V PFT3 V PFT4 Column Soil Roof Sun Wall Shade Wall Pervious Impervious Unirrig Irrig Unirrig Irrig PFT PFT1 PFT2 PFT3 PFT4 Crop1 Crop1 Crop2 Crop2
16 slide from Dr. Peter Lawrence, NCAR CLM Vegetation Modeling Leaf to Landscape Processes 1. CLM Photosynthesis, Respiration and Transpiration Traits, Sunlight, CO 2, Temperature, Water and Nitrogen 2. Carbon Allocation for Leaf, Stem and Root growth from Photosynthesis, Nitrogen availability and Phenology 3. Soil Hydrology, Soil and Litter Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles, and Heterotrophic Respiration 4. Land Cover Change, Wood Harvest, Mortality and Fire 5. Crop modeling with Planting, Fertilizer, Irrigation, Grain fill and Harvest Slide 4 Land Cover Change
17 What about the future? Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) = possible future conditions. (Meinshausen et al 2011 on D2L) Lots of decisions go in to these projections! We care about 2: RCP8.5 = worst case (also business as usual ) RCP4.5 = medium case (hopefully we get some stuff figured out soon!)
18 What is Benchmarking? onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ /j x/pdf biogeosciences.net/10/3313/2013/bg pdf Also see: biogeosciences.net/9/3857/2012/bg pdf
19 What is Benchmarking? onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ /j x/pdf
20 What is Benchmarking? onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ /j x/pdf
21 What is Benchmarking? onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ /j x/pdf
22 What is Benchmarking? Lots of decisions to make What variable(s)? What time scale? Spatial? (map? Zonal means?) Point? One number or multiple?
23 What is Benchmarking?
24
25 How does the drought deciduous algorithm in CLM work? What happens when we change ( fix ) it? image credit: Forrest Copeland talesfromthebigcountry.wordpress.com
26 Extremely Short Introduction to the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) emissions solar radiation climate data (CRU-NCEP) land CLM land use changes Alexander & Easterbrook 2011 (modified)
27 Phenology in CLM 15 non-crop plant functional types 3 phenology algorithms evergreen cold deciduous stress (= drought) deciduous
28 Where is CLM Stress Deciduous?
29 Questions How well does the stress deciduous phenology algorithm work in CLM? [Leaf Area Index] (compared to AVHRR-derived LAI3g for ; Zhu et al 2013) Did we make it work better? (with relatively simple changes) What are the ecological consequences of this change?
30 dormant onset offset dormant How does stress/drought decidousness work in CLM? (in warm, long-day regions*) CS leaf t onset t offset CLM4.5 Tech Note from White et al 1997 Start growing leaves if... 3 rd soil layer is wet (soil water potential > -2 MPa) for 15 days Onset period fixed at 30 days Start dropping leaves if... Onset period is complete 3 rd soil layer is dry (soil water potential < -2 MPa) for 15 days Leaf drop period fixed at 15 days And stress deciduous plants can turn evergreen if conditions permit! J F M A M J J A S O N D CLM4.5 Tech Note J
31 Correlations
32 What about at single points? Southern Chad Darwin, AU Brasilia Eastern Zambia % Drought Deciduous Cover
33 What s going on? Brasilia Eastern Zambia Southern Chad Darwin, AU
34 Counting Peaks AVHRR LAI3g CLM4.5BGC
35 dormant onset offset dormant How does stress decidousness currently work in CLM? (in warm, long-day regions) CS leaf t onset t offset CLM4.5 Tech Note from White et al 1997 Start growing leaves if... 3 rd soil layer is wet (soil water potential > -2 MPa) for 15 days It RAINS! (20 mm in the past 10 days) Onset period fixed at 30 days Start dropping leaves if... Onset period is complete 3 rd soil layer is dry (soil water potential < -2 MPa) for 15 days Leaf drop period fixed at 15 days And stress deciduous plants can turn evergreen if conditions permit! J F M A M J J A S O N D CLM4.5 Tech Note J
36 What s going on? Brasilia Eastern Zambia Southern Chad Darwin, AU
37 Correlations
38 What about fire?
39 What about fire? GFED3 CLM4CN ~2 o resolution* Qian forcing Li, Levis & Ward 2013
40 New Annual burned area fraction (% yr -1 ) GFED4 CLM4.5BGC ~1 o resolution CRU-NCEP forcing Giglio, Randerson, & van der Werf 2013 R = 0.44 (drought deciduous only R = 0.35) R = 0.33 (drought deciduous only R = 0.23)
41 Difference Maps
42 1 year of Fire & Veg Carbon Brasilia Southern Chad Eastern Zambia Darwin, AU
43 Conclusions Delaying budburst until some rain has fallen gives better agreement with the satellite-derived LAI data, both for magnitude and seasonal cycle in savanna regions. But this change degrades our ability to predict fire patterns. But not by much. More implications? Soil C, climate feedbacks, etc.
44 So Species Distribution Modeling? Where are species now? Where are they going? What does that mean for the other organisms that rely on them? Will it impact the climate? Will it impact people?
45 Negative Feedback (good!) Plant wants to grow Water accumulates in soil Plant opens stomata to take in CO 2 Plant closes stomata & conserves energy Plant starts to run out of water
46 Positive Feedback (not good!) Increasing CO 2 in atmosphere causes warming More microbial respiration = more CO 2 Permafrost begins to melt Microbes increase and respire more Melting permafrost gives more food to microbes
47 Types of SDMs (see Elith & Leathwick 2009) Climate Envelope Modeling (just climate) Habitat modeling (abiotic factors) Niche modeling (abiotic + biotic) Gap models (every tree) MaxEnt (fancy statisics) Ecosystem Demographics (more fancy statistics)
48 So what are we doing for the lab? Climate Envelope Modeling! Issues and Caveats Where is everything? Dropbox
49 Step 1: Pick a Rare Plant in MI Example: Kitten tails (Besseya bullii)
50 Step 2: Map its locations
51 Step 3: Calculate its climatic niche
52 Step 4: Estimate its current climatic range
53 Step 5: Estimate its future climatic range under RCP4.5
54 Step 6: Estimate its future climatic range under RCP8.5
55 Thanks! Questions? [shameless plug for GEO837]
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