Renewable Energy in Brazil 2050

Transcription

1 Renewable Energy in Brazil 2050 Junta Joven 24 September 2014, Zürich Dr. Peter de Haan, Ernst Basler+Partner, head of climate+energy efficiency group; Lecturer «Energy and Mobility», ETH Zurich

2 1. Brazil s energy system where is it heading? % renewable energy in Brazil, 2050 is it feasible? The EKOS Brasil Study 3. If it were to happen would Europe notice? Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep

3 Brazil s energy system (1) world champion Electricity now almost universal across the country 45% of primary energy demand = renewable energy Brazil one of least carbon-intensive economies in the world Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep

4 Share of renewables in total primary energy demand in selected regions, 2011 Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep

5 Brazil s energy system (2) fossil growth Total primary energy demand: doubled since 1990 Strong economic growth, emergence of a new middle class Strong growth in electricity and transport fuels Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep

6 Brazil final energy consumption by fuel, 2011 Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep

7 Brazil s energy system (3) it s a lot about oil Brazil s oil output: Output from mature fields declining Production levelled off at 2 mio. barrels/day since 2010 Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep

8 Pre-salt reservoirs it s expensive, it s difficult Production from pre-salt fields : Started, but slow Can Brazil re-attain self-sufficiency in oil? Brazil to become a major oil exporter? Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep

9 Hydro flexibility as the key Large hydro reservoirs give significant degree of flexibility Co-ordination of output between hydrological basins, and with generation from other renewable and thermal sources Dual role of hydropower: 1. Renewable source 2. Enabler of other renewables (seasonal variations from bioenergy co-generation, and intra-day fluctuations) Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep

10 1. Brazil s energy system where is it heading? % renewable energy in Brazil, 2050 is it feasible? The EKOS Brasil Study 3. If it were to happen would Europe notice? Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep

11 Instituto Ekos Brasil Fotos: Araquém Alcântara

12 Fotos: Araquém Alcântara

13 Current energy supply 2010 Energy production energy demand: TWh Source: Ministério de Minas e Energia MME, 2011 / 2013

14 How will Brazil develop?? Brazil? Forecast total energy demand up to 2050 based on GDP Structural economic changes ahead > no extrapolation! Assume energy intensity curve

15 How will Brazil develop? Brazil GDP (2010 USD, PPP) Energy Intensity (TOE/GDP) Final energy (MTOE) Final energy demand (TWh)

16 TWh Energy consumption '000 7'500 Final energy demand - optmistic Final energy demand - average 5' TWh 2'500 0 Premises GDP Projection (PwC) 215 Million people in 2050 (IBGE) World average energetic intensity (BP) and 85% in optimistic scenario

17 Renewable Energy Plants Reference Plants Total Power 2050 [GW] Biomass 455 Ethanol 79 Biodiesel Plant 35 Biogas Plant 18 Gasefication 25 Incineration 258 Charcoal / Pellets 40,0 Biokerosene Plant 0,5 Solar PV integrated in buildings 450 Solar heat plant 200 PV open field 635 Reference Plants Total Power 2050 [GW] Hydro 133 Small hydropower plant 18 Large hydropower plant 115 Ocean power plant <0,1 Wind 400 Small wind power plant 100 Large wind power plant 300 Geothermal 0,1 Ground-source heatpumps 0,1 TOTAL TOTAL Installed Capacity [GW]

18 PV in Brazil: High potential Brazil: <35 MWp PV (end of 2012) Germany: > MWp PV (end of 2012) Fonte: Meyer Burger / UFRGS-Labsol

19 Renewable Energy Potential 13% Biomass 11% 39% Solar Hydro 37% Wind

20 Main production areas

21 Biomass Amazon forest Potential: TWh (2050) Energetic crops and biomass residues 2010 Protection areas 405 Million hectares Agriculture 66 Million hectares 10% - Sugarcane Livestock 210 Million hectares 37% Sugarcane 21% Soy, Jatropha 18% Corn 17% Firewood 2% Rice 2% Manure 2% Municipal waste

22 Biomass Biomass Energy TWh em 2050 Electricity 16% Ethanol 16% Biodiesel 9% Biomethane 4% Biokerosene 0,1% Syngas 7% Steam 38% Charcoal / Pellets 10%

23 Solar Large areas with great solar incidence Solar plants for electricity 20 a 100 MW Fonte: Atlas Brasileiro de Energia Solar

24 Energia Hídrica Water Amazon forest Conservation areas: NOT CONSIDERED Potential watersheds Fonte: Plano Nacional de Energia 2030

25 Energia Eólica Wind Amazon forest Existing wind parks, potential use in expansion Potential areas to be explored

26 Conclusions Brazil can supply its on energetic demand with renewable sources even in 2050 Biomass and solar power: 75% of total energy Development of poor regions Investment opportunities Storage and transmission strategy needed Future matrix based on electricity Electricity Heat Fuels 0% 50% 100%

27 Recommendations Solar energy industry incentives Cell production Areas for solar parks Local development for biomass technologies Strategies for electricity based mobility Incentives for improvements in storage and transmission

28 1. Brazil s energy system where is it heading? % renewable energy in Brazil, 2050 is it feasible? The EKOS Brasil Study 3. If it were to happen would Europe notice? Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep

29 If it were to happen would Europe notice? Biomass is Europe s most favourite excuse for not saving energy. 25% of world s ethanol is from Brazil. Brazil is largest exporter. Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep 2014

30 Use renewables, and export fossil energy? + 100% renewable target will drive efficiency + It makes sense to combine Brazil s hydro flexibility with renewable energy? Export all fossil energy? Is Brazil ready to refuse Europe s Willingness To Pay for renewable energy? Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep

31 Botnia s pulp mill at the Uruguay river Sweden promotes the use of biomass for heating and transport Not enough biomass anymore in Sweden for pulp and paper production New Botnia pulp mill in Uruguay Junta Joven Ernst Basler+Partner, 24 Sep

32 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! 100% renewable energy, in 2050: Brazil can achieve this goal. It s a small world, at least regarding energy setting goals always affects other countries and sectors! Anticipate systemic and indirect effects! 32