Understanding energy sector resilience

Transcription

1 Understanding energy sectr resilience The energy and water nexus as part f future energy sectr planning Dr. Timur Gül Senir Energy Analyst, Wrld Energy Outlk IEA Day, OP-21 3 December 2015

2 The energy sectr needs t adapt t climate change Increase f drughts and/r heat waves Pwer plant cling impacted Natural hazards adapted frm Munich RE (2011) Surce: Redrawing the energy-climate map; WEO Special Reprt 2013, IEA The energy sectr needs t increase its resilience t the physical impacts f climate change

3 The energy sectr needs t adapt t climate change Typical cyclnes and track directins hange in trpical cyclnes and strms Expsed il and gas infrastructure Natural hazards adapted frm Munich RE (2011) Surce: Redrawing the energy-climate map; WEO Special Reprt 2013, IEA The energy sectr needs t increase its resilience t the physical impacts f climate change

4 Wrld water resurces are nt all fr energy Ttal water resurces Freshwater resurces Human freshwater use Saline water (97.5%) Ice caps & glaciers 70% Grundwater 30% Agriculture (70%) Industrial (19%) Municipal (11%) Freshwater (2.5%) Surface water (0.3%) Surce: Wrld Energy Outlk 2012, IEA Water is a plentiful resurce, but nt all can be used fr energy purpses; rising demand e.g. fr ther human needs r thrugh climate change increases cmpetitin

5 Energy is becming thirstier in the face f grwing water cnstraints Glbal water use Water fr energy 100% 80% 60% Other Nuclear Bifuels Fssil fuels 40% 20% Energy 2010 Pwer The energy sectr s water needs are set t grw, making water an increasingly imprtant criterin fr assessing the viability f energy prjects al 2010 Surce: Wrld Energy Outlk 2012, IEA

6 Water use fr electricity generatin by cling technlgy Other/nne Dry ling twer ling pnd Oncethrugh Wind Slar PV SP* Gethermal** Gas GT Gas GT Gas GT (S) al IG al IG (S) Fssil steam Fssil steam (S) Nuclear Gas GT Fssil steam Nuclear Gas GT Fssil steam Withdrawals nsumptin Nuclear < litres per MWh Surce: Wrld Energy Outlk 2012, IEA

7 Water use fr primary energy prductin nventinal gas al Shale gas Refined il (cnventinal) Refined il (il sands) Gas-t-liquids al-t-liquids Refined il (EOR) Ligncellulsic ethanl Palm il bidiesel Rapeseed bidiesel Sybean bidiesel rn ethanl Sugarcane ethanl Withdrawals nsumptin < litres per te Surce: Wrld Energy Outlk 2012, IEA

8 Adapting hina s pwer sectr t water cnstraints Installed cal-fired pwer generatin capacity in hina by cling technlgy in the New Plicies Scenari GW Once-thrugh (fresh) Once-thrugh (saline) Wet-twer The balance fr cal-fired pwer generatin cling technlgies is shifting frm least-cst, water-intensive ptins t high-cst, dry cling ptins. Dry Surce: Wrld Energy Outlk 2015, IEA

9 Mapping future cal pwer plants under water cnstraints Installed cal-fired pwer generatin capacity in hina by cling technlgy in the New Plicies Scenari Surce: Wrld Energy Outlk 2015, IEA Future cal-fired pwer generatin sites will cnsider water as a factr beynd cal transprtatin cst and electricity transmissin cst t lad centres alne.

10 Water stress adds t pwer generatin csts Impact f water stress n average hinese lcatin-specific generatin cst fr calfired pwer plants in the New Plicies Scenari, 2040 Dllars per MWh (2014) $0.9/MWh al transprtatin $0.7/MWh ling system investment $0.7/MWh Netwrk expansin 1 N water-stress system Water-stressed system Surce: Wrld Energy Outlk 2015, IEA Taking water cnstraints int accunt bsts cumulative investment needs by 85% t 2040 and increases cal-fired pwer generatin csts.

11 nclusins The energy sectr is nt immune t the impacts f climate change and the assciated physical risks Energy industry needs t assess its expsure t climate risks, which will ccur regardless the temperature rise Sme f the physical impacts f climate change will be gradual, thers are likely t be mre sudden and destructive Water scarcity is likely t becme an increasingly imprtant cnsideratin in planning thermal pwer plants IEA will cntinue analysing energy sectr resilience: WEO-2015 will feature an in-depth n the energy & water nexus