ANNEX 6: FURTHER DETAILS ON OPTIONS TO IMPROVE THE CLIMATE RESILIENCE OF ALBANIA S ENERGY SECTOR

Transcription

1 ANNEX 6: FURTHER DETAILS ON OPTIONS TO IMPROVE THE CLIMATE RESILIENCE OF ALBANIA S ENERGY SECTOR Next steps Actins marked with an asterisk (*) are n-regrets actins that culd imprve Albania s energy security even withut climate change. Thse marked with a crss ( ) are included in the draft NES active scenari. Infrmatinal * Cmpile digital databases n histric and bserved climatlgical and hydrlgical cnditins. Prvide free access n the Web t these data. * Imprve crdinatin f Albania s frecasting agencies (the Military Weather Services, Institute f Energy, Water and Envirnment and the Natinal Air Traffic Agency), by sharing data, expertise, and financial strength t supprt better quality frecasting. These rganizatins culd cllectively engage with energy-sectr stakehlders t understand their data needs t supprt management f the energy / climate interface. * Upgrade Albania s weather and hydrlgical mnitring netwrk, fcusing mst urgently n the Drin basin: Mnitring sites culd be equipped with autmatic devices able t recrd and transmit in realtime the key weather variables (rainfall, runff, temperature, sunshine hurs, wind speed, reservir head, evapratin, turbidity, water equivalent f snw). Measure sedimentatin in reservirs, which has nt been measured fr 40 years. The data abve culd be cllected by KESH and used in managing reservirs fr safety and energy prductin. Wind data are als required, measured at the height f wind turbines (80 t 100 m) t ensure wind farms are designed apprpriately and will perate efficiently. Once these data are available, explre whether high wind speeds cincide with perids f lwer rainfall, in which case wind pwer culd prvide a useful resurce when generatin frm hydrpwer facilities is lwer. * Develp in-cuntry r btain weather and climate frecasts apprpriate fr energy-sectr planning needs: Shrt-range frecasts (1 t 3 days ahead) culd be prvided by IEWE including weather prducts fr energy demand frecasting (temperature, cludiness), reservir management (rainfall), safety and disaster management (heavy rainfall, high winds, lightning strikes) * Medium-range frecasts (3 t 10 days ahead) culd be btained by subscribing, fr example, t the Eurpean Centre fr Medium-range Weather Frecasting reginal frecasts particularly fr use by KESH t facilitate effective management f water reserves fr hydrpwer generatin * Seasnal frecasts (several mnths ahead) culd be develped by IEWE frm statistical mdels f telecnnectins, using bserved and histrical data fr applicatin t energy-sectr planning Climate change scenaris (years and decades ahead): These shuld be at a spatial reslutin suitable fr river basin planning (e.g., 50 km 50 km) They shuld be develped by dwnscaling ensembles f utputs frm glbal climate mdels (GCMs), which are prvided by Met Agencies arund the wrld, crdinated thrugh the Wrld Meterlgical Organizatin. The GCMs t be included in the ensemble shuld be thse that are best able t 127

2 Actins marked with an asterisk (*) are n-regrets actins that culd imprve Albania s energy security even withut climate change. Thse marked with a crss ( ) are included in the draft NES active scenari. simulate the bserved (histric) precipitatin. * Cnsider prviding free access t these data t energy-sectr stakehlders. Shrt-range and mediumrange frecasts shuld be available in real time via the Web. Undertake further research n climate change impacts using dwnscaled climate change scenaris, researching the impacts f changes in seasnal cnditins and extreme climatic events. * Update watershed mdels and maps f Albania s climate t supprt planning fr ptimizatin f future hydrpwer assets. * Jin netwrks f experts wrking n climate and climate change issues; fr instance, WMO, EUMetNet, and EUCOS. * Create partnerships between weather, climate and hydrlgical experts, and energy-sectr stakehlders t enhance disseminatin f disseminatin f infrmatin and t ensure that data prviders understand user needs. * Strengthen reginal cperatin n sharing f weather/ climate infrmatin and frecasting and undertake research t develp shared understanding f reginwide climate change risks and their implicatins fr energy security, energy prices and trade, including: Data exchange n histrical and recent bserved data Jint studies and mnitring activities with institutins in neighbring cuntries, especially in the tw upper watersheds f the Drin and in the Vjsa watershed Reginal studies t establish whether all Suth East Eurpe s watersheds are psitively crrelated (i.e., whether they experience wet r dry years r seasns at the same time, and whether wet and dry years crrespnd with cld and ht years): If s, the existing and prpsed hydrpwer assets in the regin may be exacerbating the regin s vulnerability t climate risks. If nt, it may be pssible t undertake an investment strategy t diversify risk acrss the regin. * Wrk with reginal partners t develp better knwledge f the linkages between energy prices and hydrlgical cnditins in the face f climate change: Marginal csts f energy prductin are higher in dry years than wet years. Sme data linking these factrs are available fr 2010 and Research shuld be undertaken t develp data ut t 2020 and 2030, taking accunt f climate change prjectins. * Imprve understanding f current rates f castal ersin and f the impacts f rising sea levels and strm surges n future ersin rates, fr better management f castal assets (e.g., TPP and prt facilities). * Learn frm experience f energy-sectr experts wrldwide n managing current and future climaterelated risks (e.g., hydrpwer experts in Brazil and EDF in France, bth f whm have been researching these issues fr sme time). * Mnitr changing grund cnditins and cncentratins f pllutants at Pats Marinza. Identify whether cntaminated land remediatin at Pats Marinza wuld be effective / quick enugh in the light f climate change impacts and if nt, develp additinal management plans while rehabilitatin is underway. 128

3 Actins marked with an asterisk (*) are n-regrets actins that culd imprve Albania s energy security even withut climate change. Thse marked with a crss ( ) are included in the draft NES active scenari. * Mnitr ptential fr pllutin incidents at cal mines due t heavy dwnpurs. Institutinal: Managing current climatic variability and changes in average climatic cnditins * Imprve and explit data n reservir use, margins, and changes in rainfall and runff t imprve management f existing reservirs. * Cnsider prviding incentives fr energy-efficiency measures t reduce demand. * Supprt enfrcement f measures t reduce technical and cmmercial lsses f water. * Wrk with water users in the agricultural sectr t devise agreed strategies fr managing shared water resurces with wners f hydrpwer plants. This culd draw n the utcmes f Wrld Bank research investigating climate change impacts n agriculture in Albania. The utcmes f the research presented in this reprt and the agricultural assessments culd be integrated t cnsider the crsssectral issues arund water management. * Supprt enfrcement f measures t reduce cmmercial lsses frm the pwer distributin system. Incrprate rbustness t climatic variability and climate change in regulatins, design cdes, energysectr prpsals, site selectin decisins, envirnmental impact assessments, cntracts, public-private partnerships fr new energy assets and ther plicy instruments fr new facilities. Ensure that prpsed lcatins fr new LHPP will be sustainable in the face f climate change risks. Assess use f tariffs and incentives t prmte climate resilience f energy assets. Cnsider amendment t regulatins t capture climate change csts in energy prices and the price f water. * Strengthen measures t cntrl illegal lgging that cntributes t sil ersin and siltatin f reservirs. Set up a cmmittee t prvide versight and mnitring f prgress n climate change adaptatin. Institutinal: Managing climatic extremes Review and upgrade Emergency Cntingency Plans (ECPs) fr LHPPs, t take accunt f expected increases in precipitatin intensity due t climate change, ensuring that they include: mnitring f precipitatin; mdeling f river flws; cmmunicatin instruments and prtcls fr dwnstream cmmunities; and plans fr evacuatin. * Cnsider use f Pwer Purchase Agreements with neighbring cuntries and large energy users t assist Albania in cping with the impacts f extreme drughts n energy security. This wuld need t be supprted by real-time data n reginal runff and precipitatin (as utlined abve), and culd include: Off-take arrangements with cuntries generating energy thrugh less climatically vulnerable assets such as thermal pwer plants Pwer swap agreements, whereby Albania culd buy thermal energy frm neighbrs at lw cst during ff-peak hurs at night while allwing its reservirs t fill, then recup the energy during the next day s peak lad hurs via a higher fall Instituting frmal arrangements with large energy users such that they agree t their electricity supply being cut ff in an extreme situatin, in return fr which they pay less fr electricity * Investigate applicability f weather cverage and insurance instruments fr energy-sectr risk management. 129

4 Actins marked with an asterisk (*) are n-regrets actins that culd imprve Albania s energy security even withut climate change. Thse marked with a crss ( ) are included in the draft NES active scenari. * Supprt develpment f cntingency plans in cllabratin with stakehlders fr better management f extreme climatic events and ensure that resurces culd be mbilized effectively t respnd t them. * Ensure that regulatins n dam security are enfrced. Physical / technical Optimize existing energy assets: * Imprve maintenance f existing assets, many f which were designed and cnstructed several decades ag. Check that the sizing f existing assets is rbust t climate variability and prjected changes in average climatic cnditins and explre whether water strage culd be increased at reasnable cst t help manage seasnal variatins. Review ld and/r inefficient equipment and identify cst-effective measures t imprve efficiencies, such as: * Reduce lsses: Clearing / redesigning trash racks Upgrading turbines and generatrs Replacing equipment t reduce water lsses (e.g., shut-ff valves) Imprving aprns belw dams t reduce ersin Raising dam crest n Fierze Increasing capacity f spillways n Fierze and Kmani dams Develping pump strage scheme n Drin river cascade Digging wider channels fr SHPPs Reduce electricity transmissin lsses. Reduce lsses f water hld dialgues with stakehlders sharing watersheds t discuss lsses and establish hw best t wrk tgether t reduce them. Imprve demand-side energy efficiency thrugh incentives (e.g., fr insulatin and energy efficient appliances) and enfrcement. Ensure new assets are resilient: Fr new assets at the design stage, review the rbustness f design and site lcatins t climatic variability and prjected climate change including design f energy generatin assets as well as assciated infrastructure, such as prt facilities. * Diversify energy generatin asset types int nn-hydrpwer renewables and thermal pwer plants, ensuring that site selectin and design are resilient t climate change. Increase hydrpwer installed capacity, ensuring that new facilities are designed t cpe with changing climate risks. * Prvide better intercnnectins t facilitate reginal energy trade. * Reduce energy demand and imprve energy efficiency thrugh greater use f dmestic slar water heating, imprved building standards, use f lwer energy appliances, and use f alternative heating 130

5 Actins marked with an asterisk (*) are n-regrets actins that culd imprve Albania s energy security even withut climate change. Thse marked with a crss ( ) are included in the draft NES active scenari. surces ther than electricity. Optimize transmissin and distributin by reducing technical lsses (e.g., insulatin f cables, under grunding f critical cables, cnsider DC rather than AC fr lng lines). * Install alternative fuel surces (ther than electricity) fr heating buildings, such as slar water heaters, gethermal. 131