Session III Major Investment Projects - Canada

Transcription

1 BIREGIONAL WEC FORUM NORTH AMERICA, LATIN AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN Session III Major Investment Projects - Canada John Ritchie Hatch Acres Inc. Niagara Falls, Canada

2 Presentation Outline 1. Canada s Energy Resources in a World Context 2. Distribution of Resources in Canada 3. Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects 4. Major Projects 5. Summary

3 1 Canada s Energy Resources in a World Context World Canada % Rank Crude Oil Reserves (Billion bbl) Crude Oil Production (Billion bbl/yr) Natural Gas Reserves (TCF) Natural Gas Production (TCF/yr) Coal Reserves (Million Tonnes) Coal Production (Million Tonnes) 910, Electricity Generation (Twh/yr) 17, Nuclear Energy Generation (Twh/yr) Tech. Hydro Potential (Twh/yr) Hydroelectric Energy Generation (Twh/yr) 14, Source: Canadian Centre for Energy Information and BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005

4 World s Top Proved Oil Reserves World Total : 1300 Billion Barrels Billion Barrels Source: NR Can and Oil and Gas Journal, December 20, Figures are as of January 1, 2005.

5 2 Distribution of Resources in Canada Crude Oil and Equivalent Reserves - Alberta (78%), Saskatchewan (10%), Atlantic Offshore (8%), Northern Canada (3%), BC (1%), Natural Gas Reserves - Alberta (74%), BC (18%), Saskatchewan (5%), Atlantic Offshore (1%), Mackenzie pipeline adds 10 Tcf to Canada s proven reserves (64 Tcf ultimate) Coal Reserves - Alberta (60%), BC (25%), Saskatchewan (10%), Northern Canada (4%), Nova Scotia (2%) Hydropower Installed Capacity - Québec (54%), BC (16%), Newfoundland (11%), Ontario (10%), Manitoba (7%)

6 2 Distribution of Resources in Canada 34,000 12, , Canada s Installed Capacity - Hydro & Total Hydro = 69,000 MW Total = 115,000 MW Source : CHA

7 2 Distribution of Resources in Canada 44,000 33,000 18,000 12, , , Canada s Remaining Technical Hydro Potential (MW) Total = 163,000 MW Source : CHA

8 2 Distribution of Resources in Canada 25,000 12, Canada s Remaining Economic/Environmental Hydro Potential (MW) Total = 55,000 MW (south) Possible ,000 MW (north) Approximate Estimates

9 JCWR1 3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects Oil Production Projects Dominant Project Category Over C$ 15 Billion of projects under construction C$ 40 to C$ 50 Billion planned to 2015 Major expansion of oil production capacity from present 2.5 million b/d to 4.6 million b/d by 2015 Major Project Categories Oilsands - Mining Oilsands In situ Extraction Upgraders

10 Diapositiva 9 JCWR1 John Ritchie, 29/05/2006

11 3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects Oil Production Outlook Source: CAPP

12 3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects Major Oil Production Projects Projected Expenditures C$ 40 - C$ 50 billion Oilsands alone (identified projects) Under Construction - Alberta - over C$ 15 Billion CNRL - Horizon (mining) Ph 1 110,000 b/d C$ 6.8 Billion by 2008 OPTI/Nexen - Long Lake (in situ) Ph 1 70,000 b/d C$ 3.8 Billion by 2007 ConocoPhillips - Surmont (in situ) - 50,000 b/d - C$ 1.4 Billion by 2006 Near Term Projects - Alberta - over C$ 13 Billion CNRL - Horizon (mining) Ph 2, 3 135,000 b/d C$ 3.1 Billion, Imperial Oil - Kearl Lake (mining) Ph 1 100,000 b/d C$ 2.3 Billion, Petro-Can et al - Fort Hills OS (mining) 100,000 b/d C$ 2.0 Billion, Shell - Scotford Upgrader Exp. 90,000 b/d C$ 2.7 Billion,

13 3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects Major Oil & Gas Transportation Projects Projected Expenditures C$ 17 billion Under Construction - Smaller Projects Near Term Pipeline Projects - Alberta & U.S. - over C$ 5 Billion Enbridge Waupisoo 350,000 b/d C$ 0.5 Billion Kinder Morgan Corridor 240,000 b/d C$ 1.5 Billion Trans Canada Keystone 435,000 b/d C$ 2.6 Billion Near Term LNG Import Projects Eastern Canada C$ 1.5 Billion Irving Oil / Repsol - Canaport LNG - 1 bcf/d C$ 0.8 Billion Petro-Can/Trans Canada Gros Cacouna 0.5 bcf/d C$ 0.7 Billion Longer Term Pipeline Projects includes major new gas pipelines Mackenzie Pipeline bcf/d C$ 7 Billion Alaska Pipeline 4.0 bcf/d C$ 23 Billion

14 3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects Major Thermal Power Projects Under Construction - Ontario - C$ 1.4 Billion Portlands CCGT - C$ 0.6 Billion MW Sithe Goreway CCGT - C$ 0.8 Billion MW Near Term Projects - Alberta - C$ 1.9 Billion Keephills Unit 3 - Coal - C$ 0.9 Billion MW Bow City - Coal - C$ 2.4 Billion MW ; cost includes Coal Mine development

15 3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects Major Nuclear Power Projects New Emphasis on Nuclear Power likely in Canada Under Construction - Ontario & New Brunswick - C$ 5.6 Billion Bruce A Units 1&2 Re-Start - C$ 4.2 Billion 800 MW Point Lepreau Refurbishment C$ 1.4 Billion MW Planned Projects- Ontario Before 2020 Refurbish over 10,000 MW of existing nuclear 14 C$ 1 to C$ 1.5 Billion After MW of new nuclear C$ 6 Billion

16 3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects Major Hydropower Projects Continued construction in Québec, new projects in Manitoba, Newfoundland & Labrador Under Construction - Québec & Ontario - $ 5.0 Billion Québec Eastmain 1 - C$ 2.2 Billion MW Chûte-Allard/RDC - C$ 0.7 Billion MW Péribonka - C$ 1.5 Billion MW Ontario Niagara Tunnel - C$ 0.6 Billion Near Term Projects - Québec & Manitoba - C$ 5.7 Billion Québec Eastmain 1A - C$ 4.6 Billion MW Manitoba Wuskwatim - C$ 1.1 Billion MW

17 3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects Major Hydropower Projects Planned Projects - C$ 21.6 Billion Québec La Romaine - C$ 7.0 Billion MW Manitoba Keeyask C$ 3.0 Billion 620 MW Conawapa C$ 5.0 Billion 1250 MW Newfoundland & Labrador Lower Churchill (Gull Island) - C$ 4.5 Billion MW Lower Churchill (Muskrat Falls) C$ 2.1 Billion 824 MW

18 3 Overview of Committed and Near-Term Projects Major HV Power Transmission Projects Most Projects Under C$ 0.5 Billion Grid Reinforcement Near Term Project - C$ 0.6 Billion Alberta Edmonton Calgary Reinforcement - C$ 0.6 Billion 500kV Planned Projects - C$ 7 Billion Manitoba Bipole 3 C$ 1.2 Billion 500 kv DC Manitoba Ontario Interconnector C$ 2 Billion 500 kv DC Newfoundland & Labrador Labrador Newfoundland DC Line C$ 2 Billion 400 kv DC Québec Transmission for La Romaine project - C$ 1.5 Billion

19 4 Major Projects Oil Production Typical Oilsands Mining Project Deposits to 80m depth Strip Overburden, mine materials, truck and shovel methods (large equipment) Separation uses warm water, agitation Typical breakeven cost US$ per barrel

20 4 Major Projects Oil Production Typical In Situ Oilsands Mining Project Deposits over 80m depth Add heat to reduce viscosity, pump to surface Cyclic Steam Stimulation (CSS) - steam injected via vertical wells Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) - horizontal wells Other approaches under development, including N-Solv (Less energy required) Typical breakeven cost higher than mining projects

21 4 Major Projects Oil & Gas Pipelines Keystone Pipeline Project Owner TransCanada Corp. Capacity 435,000 b/d km, 30 ø Capital Cost C$ 2.6 Billion Construction Schedule Regulatory and consultation process under way in Canada & U.S. Over 50% of pipeline length in U.S.

22 4 Major Projects Oil & Gas Pipelines

23 4 Major Projects Thermal & Nuclear Power Bruce A Units 1 & 2 Restart Owner Bruce Power Capacity 2 MW (Total on site 4700 to 6200 MW) Capital Cost C$ 4.5 Billion Construction Schedule Scope Includes: Tube replacement in reactors Steam generator replacement Electrical & Auxiliary system refurbishment/upgrades

24 4 Major Projects Thermal & Nuclear Power Bow City Power Project Owner Luscar Ltd. Capacity 500 MW (ultimate 1000 MW) Capital Cost C$ 2.4 Billion, including coal mine development Construction Schedule /2014 Scope Includes: Two 500 MW supercritical coal-fired units Surface coal mine Coal production plant Model of Turbine Hall

25 4 Major Projects Hydropower Eastmain 1 Hydroelectric Project Owner Hydro-Québec Capacity 480 MW Dam Height 70 m. Capital Cost C$ 2.3 Billion Construction Unique partnership with Cree communities

26 4 Major Projects Hydropower Wuskwatim Hydroelectric Project Owners Manitoba Hydro Nisichawayasihk Cree Nation Capacity 200 MW Dam Height 14 m. Capital Cost C$ 1.1 Billion Construction Schedule Project designed to minimize flooding and impacts Unique partnership with aboriginal community

27 4 Major Projects Hydropower Lower Churchill Gull Island Owner Newfoundland & Labrador Hydro Capacity 2000 MW; 12TW-h/yr Dam 100 m high, 1300 m long Capital Cost C$ 4.5 Billion; includes AC transmission in Labrador Construction Schedule

28 5 Summary Under Construction - C$ 27 Billion Oilsands - C$ 15 Billion Nuclear Power - C$ 6 Billion Hydropower - C$ 5 Billion Thermal Power - C$ 1 Billion Near Term Projects - C$ 26 Billion Oilsands - C$ 13 Billion Hydropower - C$ 6 Billion Pipelines & LNG - C$ 5 Billion Thermal Power - C$ 2 Billion

29 5 Summary Investment requirements Oilsands - accelerate production capacity Oil & Gas Transportation - accommodate demand, production increase Thermal Power meet load growth in Alberta, Ontario Nuclear Power - major investments in Ontario Hydropower - continued major investments in Quebec, new investments in Manitoba, Newfoundland & Labrador HV Transmission - many areas need investment Implementation Constraints Finance and Project Economics Specialized Labour Regulatory - especially nuclear, hydro, HV transmission