Presentation Presentation from the Water Pavilion at the IUCN World Conservation Congress, Barcelona 2008 The Author(s), all rights reserved

Transcription

1 Presentation Presentation from the Water Pavilion at the IUCN World Conservation Congress, Barcelona 2008 The Author(s), all rights reserved INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE

2 Reconciling economic, social and environmental water needs in Pangani Basin, Tanzania Sylvand Kamugisha Coordinator, Pangani River Basin Management Project Hamza Sadiki Water Officer, Pangani Basin Water Office Kelly West Coordinator, IUCN ESARO Program

3 Project Partners Anchor Environmental Consultants

4 Presentation Outline Part I Introduction Part II Design Considerations FA Process Scenario Development Next Steps

5 Pangani River Basin

6 Pangani Basin s Resources 3.8 million people 2 nd highest agricultural output in Tanzania 17% of Tanzania s hydropower production biodiversity hotspot Water-stressed basin, supply does not meet demand = conflicts

7 Environmental Flow Issues Reduced Flows Increased demand for water for irrigation and hydropower have led to the drying of perennial rivers and salt water intrusion (20 km) at the estuary The Kikuletwa river is no longer perennial

8 Environmental Flow Issues Livelihoods depending on environmental resources NR - Based Livelihoods >95% of Tanzanians depend on natural resources for their livelihoods. Failure to ensure adequate water provisions for these resources jeopardizes livelihoods across the country

9 Legislative requirements Policy provisions on EFs: National Water Policy (2002) Environmental Management Act (2004) But how much water does the environment need?

10 Design Considerations Technical Assistance We had limited capacity to implement our EFA policy provisions and looked to experts in Southern Africa for mentoring and capacity building Dr. Jackie King, University of Cape Town, SA with Tanzanian hydrologist

11 Design Considerations Useful to non-specialists The target audience is the Basin Water Board which is responsible for allocating water. Basin Water Boards consist of educated nonspecialists who also require capacity building in EFA so that they will eventually support the results of the process Members of Pangani Basin Water Board

12 Design Considerations Methodologies Vary in time, effort and financial investment required as well as levels of resolution that they provide We have a very complex system and we wish to build capacity, so we are investing significant time, financial and human resources in a modified DRIFT (Downstream Response to Imposed Flow Transformation) method Flow Measurements in wet season

13 Pangani Basin FA Process Tanzanian FA Team Pangani Basin Water Office National Environment Management Council Ministry of Water and Irrigation University of Dar es Salaam Faculty of Aquatic Science and Technology Economic Research Bureau Institute of Marine Sciences Analysis of FA samples

14 Pangani Basin FA Process Pangani Basin FA Process Detailed Study Sites Flows assessment sites E

15 Pangani Basin FA Process Process Task 1: Hydrology report for the basin: water balance and data sets for simulated historical and present day conditions; summary hydrology for selected scenarios in terms of yield, distribution and volume Task 2: Study area delineation and site selection: delineate relatively homogenous zones and sub-zones along the river and estuary and for socio-economic activities Task 3: Health assessment of the rivers and estuary: conditions during dry and wet seasons, initial species lists and identification of key areas of concern for the river system, estuary and major wetlands

16 Pangani Basin FA Process Process Task 4: Baseline socio-economic assessment: description of people s relationship to water and river resources; well-being (social indicatorsincome, health, etc) Task 5: State of the Basin Report : synthesis of the understanding of the river systems and its economies and identification of major gaps: develop ToRs for specialist studies Task 6: Specialist Studies Input : Hydraulics, hydropower operations, riparian vegetation, fisheries and invertebrates, macro-economic and climate change

17 Pangani Basin FA Process Process Task 7: Development of an FA scenario-evaluation tool: To populate the scenario-evaluation tool with conceptual flow response relationships; develop user manual Task 8: Practical application of scenario evaluation by National core team FA team: Model other selected scenarios independently Task 9: Final Reporting: This includes developing summarizing the technical reports into simple format for a wide audience Task 10: Awareness raising outside of the FA Study Team Task 11&12: Training Workshops on EF concepts and DSS: During the course of the project, the two tasks were added to reinforce capacity building

18 Pangani Basin FA Process Products Available reports to date Hydrology Basin Delineation River Health Estuary Health Social-economic State of the Basin Report Pangani Flows DSS Water Allocation Scenarios

19 End of Part 1

20 Scenario Considerations: List of Scenarios 1. Maximise Agriculture 2. Maximise HEP 3. Optimise Present Day with Agriculture 4. Optimise Present Day with HEP 5. High Environment 6. Present Day with Climate Change 7. Maximise Agr. Less 20% wet season rainfall 8. Maximise Agr less 30% wet season rainfall 9. Maximise HEP, less 20% wet season rainfall 10. Maximise HEP, less 30% wet season rainfall 11. Optimise Present Day Agriculture with Storage

21 Scenario Definition: Maximum Agriculture Scenario Sector Human Needs 1 Urban water supply 2 Agriculture 3 HEP 4 Priority Environment Climate Change Residual n/a Large scale Agriculture

22 Scenario: Maximise Agriculture Predicted impact from Present Day Ecological integrity - decline Social well-being - small positive impact Economic* decline significant % of Change from Ecosystem Integrity Social wellbeing Economics *Change in economic value: direct value added to national economy in case of agriculture and natural resources, cost savings to the economy in case of HEP and ecosystems services

23 Scenario Definition: Max Hydro-Electric Power Scenario Sector Priority Human Needs 1 Urban water supply 2 Agriculture 4 HEP 3 Environment Residual Climate Change n/a Hydropower generation

24 Scenario: Maximise HEP Predicted impact from Present Day Ecological integrity - negative impact Social well-being - impact small negative Economic strong positive impact % of Chang e from Ecosystem Integrity Social wellbeing Economics

25 Scenario Definition: Optimized Present Day Agriculture Scenario Sector Priority Human Needs 1 Urban water supply 3 Agriculture 4 HEP Residual Environment 2 Climate Change n/a Irrigation Scheme

26 Scenario: Optimise PD - Agriculture Predicted impact from Present Day Ecological integrity improvement Social well-being - negative impact Economic decline overall % of Change from Ecosystem Integrity Social wellbeing Economics

27 Scenario Definition: Optimized Present Day HEP Scenario Sector Priority Human Needs 1 Urban water supply 3 Agriculture Residual HEP 4 Environment 2 Climate Change n/a Nyumba ya Mungu hydropower plant

28 Scenario: Optimise PD - HEP Predicted impact from Present Day Ecological integrity moderate improvement Social well-being - overall negative impact Economic Increase % of change from Ecosystem Integrity Social wellbeing Economics

29 Scenario Definition: High environment Scenario Sector Priority Human Needs 1 Urban water supply 3 Agriculture 4 HEP Residual Environment 2 Climate Change n/a The Kikuletwa river is no longer perennial

30 Scenario: High Environment Predicated impact from Present Day Ecological integrity moderate to large Improvement Social well-being overall is negative impact Economic decline % of Change from Ecosystem Integrity Social wellbeing Economics

31 Scenario Definition: Present Day + Climate Change Scenario Sector Human Needs 2 Urban water 3 supply Agriculture 4 HEP 5 Environment Priority Residual Climate Change 1 Mt. Kilimanjaro

32 Scenario: PD & Climate Change Predicated impact from Present Day Ecological integrity decline % of chang e from Social well-being in general very small change; big on Lake areas Economic decline Ecosystem Integrity Social wellbeing Economics

33 Scenario Definition: Max Agric less 20% rainfall Scenario Sector Priority Human Needs 2 Urban water 3 supply Agriculture 4 HEP 5 Environment Residual Climate Change 1 Maize crop impacted by failed rains

34 Scenario: Maximum Agriculture less 20% rainfall Predicated impact from Present Day Ecological integrity decline Social well-being decline Economic decline % of change from Ecosystem Integrity Social wellbeing Economics

35 Scenario Definition: Max Agric less 30% rainfall Scenario Sector Human Needs 2 Urban water 3 supply Agriculture 4 HEP 5 Environment Priority Residual Climate Change 1 Arid lands are increasing in Pangani Bain

36 Scenario: Maximum Agriculture less 30% rainfall Predicated impact from Present Day Ecological integrity decline Social well-being decline Economic decline % of change from Ecosystem Integrity Social wellbeing Economics

37 Scenario Definition: Max HEP less 20% rainfall Scenario Sector Human Needs 2 Urban water 3 supply Agriculture 5 HEP 4 Environment Priority Residual Climate Change 1 Hydropower transmission facility

38 Scenario: Max HEP less 20% rainfall Predicated impact from Present Day Ecological integrity decline Social well-being decline Economic (positive) increase % of change from Ecosystem Integrity Social wellbeing Economics

39 Scenario Definition: Max HEP less 30% rainfall Scenario Sector Human Needs 2 Urban water 3 supply Agriculture 5 HEP 4 Environment Priority Residual Climate Change 1 Reducing water levels in reservoir

40 Scenario: Max HEP less 30% rainfall Predicated impact from Present Day Ecological integrity decline Social well-being decline Economic decline -negative % of change from PD Ecosystem Integrity Social wellbeing Economics

41 Summary of Scenarios

42 Way Forward: Next Steps Operationalizing Results Awareness creation on the various scenarios and technical information obtained Consultations among stakeholders/decision makers to select the desired development path, hence the desired environmental flow Integrate desired scenario into IWRM planning Basin Water Officer consults with stakeholders

43 Thank you for your attention!