Relevance of HIWeather to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

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1 Scientific and Technical Advisory Group Programme Relevance of HIWeather to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction Professor Virginia Murray., Vice-chair of UNISDR STAG Consultant in Global Disaster Risk Reduction Public Health England

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3 Outline Sendai Framework PHE examples of partnership working with the Met Office reflective of HIWeather Possible ways forward

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6 25 years of international commitment to Disaster Risk Reduction

7 Why 2015 mattered so much

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10 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction I Main result of the 3 nd UN World Conference on DRR, Sendai, March 2015 Outcome: The substantial reduction of disaster risk and losses in lives, livelihoods and health and in the economic, physical, social, cultural and environmental assets of persons, businesses, communities and countries.

11 Paragraph 18 : To support the assessment of global progress in achieving the outcome and goal of the present Framework, seven global targets g) Substantially increase the availability of and access to multihazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to people by 2030.

12 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction I Priorities for action 1. Understanding Disaster Risk 2. Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk 3. Investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience 4. Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response and to Build Back Better in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction

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14 Priority 1 Understanding Disaster Risk To strengthen technical and scientific capacity to capitalize on and consolidate existing knowledge and to develop and apply methodologies and models to assess disaster risks, vulnerabilities and exposure to all hazards;

15 Priority 1 Understanding Disaster Risk (b) To promote the conduct of comprehensive surveys on multi-hazard disaster risks and the development of regional disaster risk assessments and maps, including climate change scenarios;

16 Priority 4 - Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response and to Build Back Better in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction (b) To invest in, develop, maintain and strengthen people-centred multi-hazard, multisectoral forecasting and early warning systems, disaster risk and emergency communications mechanisms, social technologies and hazardmonitoring telecommunications systems; develop such systems through a participatory process; tailor them to the needs of users, including social and cultural requirements, in particular gender; promote the application of simple and low-cost early warning equipment and facilities; and broaden release channels for natural disaster early warning information;

17 Priority 4 - Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response and to Build Back Better in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction (c) To promote the further development of and investment in effective, nationally compatible, regional multi-hazard early warning mechanisms, where relevant, in line with the Global Framework for Climate Services, and facilitate the sharing and exchange of information across all countries;

18 Priority 1 Understanding Disaster Risk Enhance the scientific and technical work on disaster risk reduction and its mobilization through the coordination of existing networks and scientific research institutions at all levels and all regions with the support of the UNISDR Scientific and Technical Advisory Group in order to:

19 Priority 1 Understanding Disaster Risk strengthen the evidence-base in support of the implementation of this framework; promote scientific research of disaster risk patterns, causes and effects; disseminate risk information with the best use of geospatial information technology; use post-disaster reviews as opportunities to enhance learning and public policy; and disseminate studies

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21 Early Warning and Hazard Monitoring Warning information needs to consider all potential disasters across environmental, technological, biological and natural hazard domains. 1. Improved early warning multi-hazards systems 2. Development of Guidelines and Standards 3. Improved accuracy and communication Over 80% of the LDCs have only a basic early warning system. In 15 countries, no such system even exists. In the island states, only four or five out of 40 having an effective system.

22 Examples of multi hazards warning mechanisms The World Meteorological Organization Information System (WIS) is the single coordinated global infrastructure responsible for managing the free exchange of weather, climate and water information around the globe. WIS provides an integrated approach to meet the requirements for routine collection and automated dissemination of hazard monitoring data and products, as well as data discovery, access and retrieval services for all weather, climate, water and related data, including warnings, produced by WMO s 191 Member countries (WMO).

23 Early warning systems The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) is a joint program of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the World Health Organisation (WHO) which was established to enhance resilience in social, economic and environmental systems by improving climate information and weather systems in selected regions of the world. Global Earth Observation System of Systems United Nations Platform for Space-based information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response (UN- SPIDER) International Health Regulations (IHR) World Animal Health Information System, FAO Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS), UNESCO s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission Tsunami Programme

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25 Science and Technology Roadmap Key Actions Develop, maintain and innovate technology for people-centred, low cost early warning systems and emergency communication mechanisms. Review Progress and Needs Standards and best practises for multihazard early warning systems for DRR Periodic national and regional reporting on early warning systems and emergency communication mechanisms; in place and planned

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27 Way forward Supporting integrated and holistic approaches to the use of S&T for DRR that reflect the wide scope of the Sendai Framework, which applies to disasters caused by natural or human-made hazards, as well as environmental, technological, and biological hazards. Supporting open access, multi-hazard data platforms and standardized approaches and tools to map and use of data and scenarios that make science sensible to decision makers and the general public..

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30 HIWeather focus on science needed to address five hazards, impacts and actions taken in response Urban flood, including flooding from the sea, rivers and directly from rainfall, with particular emphasis on flood impacts, including landslides, in the growing megacities of the developing world, especially those situated in the tropics and subtropics. Wildfire, emphasising requirements associated with evacuation, property protection, fire fighting and fire management rather than the longer range problem of predicting elevated fire risk. Localised Extreme Wind, including localised maxima within tropical and extra-tropical cyclones (e.g. sting jets), tornadoes, downbursts and downslope windstorms. Disruptive winter weather, including snow, ice, fog & avalanche, and focussing on transport, energy and communications impacts. Urban Heat Waves and Air Pollution, with particular emphasis on health impacts in the growing megacities of the developing world.

31 Natural Hazards Partnership ov.uk/barometer/featur es/ /a-definingpartnership

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33 Rainfall percentage average 1 December February 2014 Courtesy of the Met Office

34 WHO Europe / Public Health England Floods: Health effects and prevention in the WHO European Region May 2013

35 Health impacts of flooding Direct health effects Associated with flood water and its debris: Drowning (walking or driving through flood water) Physical trauma (concealed or displaced objects; electrocution, fire) Skin & gut infections from contaminated flood water Longer-term health effects Occur as a consequence of flooding: Mental health impacts (secondary stressors) Carbon monoxide poisoning Respiratory disease from mould & damp Rodent-borne disease Other health effects such as heart attacks

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37 Secondary Stressors & Extreme Events Economic Difficulties with compensation Problems with recovery and rebuilding homes Loss of physical possessions or resources Health New or continuing health concerns or conditions Lack of access to healthcare Lack of access to psychosocial care Lack of access to prescription medication Education and Schooling The media Familial Social Leisure and recreation Changes in the view of the world or oneself Lock S, Rubin GJ, Murray V, Rogers MB, Amlôt R, Williams R. Secondary Stressors and Extreme Events and Disasters: A Systematic Review of Primary Research from PLOS Currents Disasters Oct 29 [last modified: 2012 Nov 27]. Incident Response for Chemical and Natural Hazards Including Risk Management in Operation

38 National Flood Emergency Framework for England

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43 Extreme Events how well planned are we in the UK? Windstorms

44 Windstorm St Jude 28 October day warning of windstorm Meteorological representation of storm location and intensity Wind gusts > 80mph. Actions Multi-agency crossgovernmental response Cabinet Office press releases warning public of dangers Data: PHE surveillance, NHP, Met Office, DECC

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46 Windstorm Health Impacts Timeline PRE-STORM STORM POST-STORM Health risks: Accidents and falls whilst securing roofs, windows and antennae Building collapse Flying debris Being blown into a stationary object, moving vehicle or a body of water Road traffic accidents Ocular injuries Electrocution, burns Carbon Monoxide poisoning Accidents during clean-up (chainsaws, bonfires, etc.) Accidents and falls whilst repairing building damage Crowding and poor sanitation (if evacuation has occurred) PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACTS including anxiety, stress, bereavement and mental health disorders

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48 Location and size of Wildfires in England FY 2009/ /11 Courtesy of Forestry Commission England. Data source: Department for Communities and Local Government (National Incident Recording System)

49 Communication Good communication is vital Public health information should be clear and as accurate as possible An early warning system should be in place to allow communities to prepare for wildfires and, if necessary, evacuate threatened areas This may be enhanced using satellite data as has been used in Spain Early surveillance and models for fire prediction would also be useful People with pre-existing health conditions should be made aware of the potential adverse health impact of wildfire smoke. For example asthma sufferers could be advised to increase their medication if they are likely to be exposed to smoke. Access and egress and risk of RTAs

50 Extreme Events how well planned are we in the UK? Cold Weather

51 Excess Winter Mortality

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55 Map of 9-year country-level EWDI in 31 European countries, grouped by quintiles of equal count.

56 Evidence of effectiveness of interventions Link between morbidity and mortality with cold is strong, but evidence of what interventions work is more limited Of all best evidence exists around improvements to heating and energy efficiency in homes in terms of: symptoms of long-term disease (particularly respiratory disease) mental wellbeing reduced health service use school/work absence 1 1. Thomson H, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2013

57 Daily mortality in London, jan apr jul oct jan2004 date age >75 age age age 0-14 Extreme Events how well planned are we in the UK?

58 The Heatwave Plan for England 4 Extreme Events how well planned are we in the UK?

59 Courtesy of the Met Office July 2013 Mean Maximum Temperature v.uk/climate/uk/summar ies/anomacts

60 Current PHE syndromic system data sources Sentinel GP (RCGP) OTC sales Tele-health (NHS 111) Social media (Twitter) GP in hours ReSST Emergency department Ambulance HCW absenteeism Web activity GP out of hours

61 Daily syndromic surveillance monitoring of the July 2013 heatwave. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures, heatwave plan alert levels and daily plots of syndromic surveillance system heatwave indicators are shown for the duration of the 2013 heatwave surveillance period (1 June 15 Sep 2013) 61

62 GP in hours daily heat/sun stroke consultations by age group, 1 June to 15 Sept Source: Smith S, Elliot AJ, Hajat S et al. Estimating the burden of heat/sun stroke in England during the 2013 summer heatwave using syndromic surveillance. J Epidemiol Comm Health (in press) 2016.

63 Daily number of deaths in <65yr olds and 65+yr olds compared to expected number (blue line) and upper 3SD significance limit (red line) with daily maximum Central England Temperature (⁰C, green line), England, Grey shading: heatwave defined as Met office alert or mean CET >20degC

64 Excess deaths in 65+ year olds in heatwave years Green et al Mortality during the 2013 heatwave in England How did it compare to previous heatwaves? A retrospective observational study. Environmental Research 2016

65 Other aspects Ozone and air pollution Wildfires Swimming in open water drowning Thunderstorms (and asthma) Water contamination from run off Algal blooms inland and marine Okadeic acid diarretic shellfish poisoning

66 Thunderstorms

67 Thunderstorm asthma EDSSS emergency departments ++ Lightning strikes Senior Leaders Meeting 19 Sept 2013 Elliot AJ, Hughes HE, Hughes TC et al. Emerg Med J 2013

68 Spike in London asthma attendances Senior Leaders Meeting 19 Sept 2013

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73 Some of the challenges for HIWeather Forecasting the things that matter (to recipients) Defining warning language that people will respond to appropriately, especially reflecting issues of confidence and uncertainty Supporting the warning with information that is relevant for action (for the recipients) Using appropriate metrics to guide investment in the warnings system. Working to implement Sendai in partnership across all hazards and with all disciplines