Thailand s NDC 2030: Resources productivity and Innovation
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- Rudolph Dixon
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1 International Research Network for Low Carbon Societies: Clean growth and innovation in a changing world 12 September 2017 Warwick University, UK Thailand s NDC 2030: Resources productivity and Innovation Bundit Limmeechokchai Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology Thammasat University, Thailand 1
2 Long-Term Economic Growth ( ) Source: PDP2015 2
3 Population Forecast 3
4 Thailand s Climate Change Master Plan 2050 Approved by Cabinet on 14 July
5 Thailand CO 2 emission targets 5
6 - PDP EEP AEDP Smart Grids EEP 2015 Fuel Efficient (Nonelectric) AEDP 2015 Biofuel & Heat (Nonelectric) Thailand s Transport Infrastructu re Developme nt Strategy
7 Thailand Power Development Plan (PDP2015) 3.94% of the average GDP growth rate ( ), was estimated by NESDB 0.03% of the average population growth 89,672 GWh was saved by EEDP in ,634 MW was set for the renewable energy development target by AEDP in 2036 The power demand from BTS sky train, MRT train, and 10 mass rapid transit projects in Bangkok was included except those of the unclear high speed train projects. Thailand smart grid master plan was included supporting the renewable energy sites Source: Thailand Power Development Plan 2015 (English Version) 7
8 The Estimated Fuel Requirement for The PDP2015 Source: Thailand Power Development Plan 2015 (English Version) 8
9 Energy Efficiency Plan: EEP2015 PDP2015 already included the electricity demand from EEP 30% energy intensity reduction in 2030 compared to 2010 Final Energy Consumption Target by EEP Source: Thailand Power Development Plan 2015 (English Version) 9
10 Targets in EEP2015 Source: Thailand Power Development Plan 2015 (English Version) 10
11 Electricity Savings in EEP ,672 GWh of electricity consumption can be saved by 2036 Source: Thailand Power Development Plan 2015 (English Version) 11
12 Alternative Energy Development Plan: AEDP
13 Alternative Energy Development Plan: AEDP2015 * Remark: Including Geothermal and oil from tires 13
14 Alternative Energy Development Plan: AEDP
15 15
16 Thailand s GHG inventory by sector (BUR1) 16
17 Thailand s INDC Economy-wide GHG Emissions in
18 GHG reduction target in NDC Roadmap BaU emissions 20% GHG reduction Waste IPPU Residential Commercial Transport Industry Power GHG emissions (Mt-CO 2 eq) GHG mitigation GHG mitigation - Power 24 Mt-CO 2 eq - Industry 43 Mt-CO 2 eq - Transport 41 Mt-CO 2 eq - Residential 4 Mt-CO 2 eq - Commercial 1 Mt-CO 2 eq - IPPU 0.6 Mt-CO 2 eq - Waste 2 Mt-CO 2 eq Total GHG mitigation Mt-CO 2 eq BaU 2030INDC 18
19 Revolution of Efficient use of energy in Thailand 19
20 Thailand s NDC Roadmap 2030 Integrated Plans AEDP EEP PDP Smart Grid ( ) Transport Infrastructure Development Plan 2030 Green Industry 2021 Waste MP Invir Quality Improvement Plan RAC NAMA 20
21 CMs in Energy sector and Transport Sector Unit: Mt-CO 2 e 4.3% 0.7% 0.2% 7.4% 7.8% 21
22 CMs in Waste sector Unit: Mt-CO 2 e 0.2 % 0.1% 22 28
23 CMs in Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) Unit: Mt-CO 2 e 0.1% 23 29
24 EE kt-co 2eq Efficient Appliances 490 1,192 2,060 2,786 NDC Roadmap in Households Lighting System Incantdescent Lamps Fluorescent Lamps Efficient Florescent Lamps Compact Fluorescent Lamps Energy Efficiency Measures Efficient Compact Fluorescent Lamps T5 LED Cooling System Existing Refrigerators Efficient Refrigerators (COP5) Efficient Refrigerators (COP8) Air Conditioning System Existing Air Conditioners Efficient Air Conditioners (COP5) Efficient Air Conditioners (COP8) Fans Efficient Fans
25 EE NDC Roadmap in Households Energy Efficiency Measures (cont d)
26 NDC Roadmap in Households RE Renewable Energy (Thermal) , kt-co 2eq Renewable Energy Heating System Solar Water Heaters Cooking System Biogas Digester
27 EE NDC Roadmap in Buildings Energy Efficiency Measures
28 EE electric NDC Roadmap in Industries Electricity Efficiency Measures
29 EE Thermal NDC Roadmap in Industries Thermal energy Efficiency Measures
30 RE Thermal NDC Roadmap in Industries Renewable energy (Thermal) Measures
31 EE NDC Roadmap in Transport Energy Efficiency Measures
32 RE NDC Roadmap in Transport Bio-fuel Measures
33 NDC Roadmap in IPPU Sector Material Substitution Measures
34 NDC Roadmap in Waste Sector Management Measures
35 AIM/CGE Analyses: Effects of GHG mitigation targets on per capita GDP and GHG emissions 35
36 AIM/CGE Analyses: Effects of GHG mitigation targets on Energy Intensity and GHG Intensity 36
37 AIM/CGE Analyses: Effects of GHG mitigation targets on Energy Mix 37
38 AIM/CGE Analyses: Effects of GHG mitigation targets on GHG Composition 38
39 Energy Productivity (GDP/ktoe) Unit: million 2005 US$/ktoe 39
40 IPPU 0.6 MtCO 2 e Energy & Transport 113 Mt CO 2 e Waste 2 MtCO 2 e THANK YOU 40
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