Market trends March 2016

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Lewis Marsh
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Avocado Market Trends and Prices March 2016 Market trends March 2016 The market has been very calm during the whole month, exception made for the Easter week.

Easter week have nevertheless stimulated the market and allowed prices to start increasing again even though moderately.

1 Avocado Market Trends and Prices March 2016 Market trends March 2016 The market has been very calm during the whole month, exception made for the Easter week. The demand has been sluggish for three consecutive weeks and, with the arrivals from Chile and Mexico still high, prices tended to slightly decrease; the traditional promotional activities in the Easter week have nevertheless stimulated the market and allowed prices to start increasing again even though moderately. The supply observed the last significant arrivals from Chile while volumes from Mexico continued strongly above the average and will remain high in April; the fruits from both Chile and Mexico showed an advanced rate of maturity, with quality problems particularly in the case of Mexico, as well as lack of big grades. Also the Mediterranean season is going to an end and fruits are becoming rare particularly from Israel while Spain remain on the market with decreasing volumes and very high prices which in some cases do not stimulate the interest of importers. Due to the lack of fruits, air-freighted arrivals from Mexico have been increasingly present but available volumes have been relatively small given the limited air-freight capacity of the country. The supply from the summer sources is just developing for now: Kenya and Peru are on the market in limited volumes and with importers concerns about the early ripening stage. Arrivals from Peru are developing slowly and significant volumes will be available in May only while the supply from Kenya is also increasing moderately and mostly small sizes have been noticed on the market in the first part of the season. Given the low demand, prices have been stable or slightly decreasing for all origins until the beginning of the Easter week but with a decreasing supply and better demand, increased again in correspondence of the Easter promotions, even though the demand outside the programs has been quite low. Concerns were raised about the possibility to run the Easter programs at the established prices because of the low demand but the prices agreed have then remained unchanged. The transition between the winter and summer sources started in a context of low supply and will take quite a long time to complete. The market for green avocado has been increasingly empty and observed very high and firm prices; the first arrivals from Peru and South Africa are on the market. PRICES Hass avocado Week 12 (Euro/4 kg ctn) CHILE COLOMBIA ISRAEL KENYA MEXICO PERU SPAIN F NL UK undetermined D PRICES Green avocado Week 12 Israel Kenya fuerte Peru fuerte Spain reed F Ardit NL Fuerte

2 Notes March 2016 F NL UK D Air freighted fruits from Mexico (counts ) sold at Euro/ctn. Hass from Spain (16-20 ) reached Euro/ctn in Paris Rungis wholesale market. Prices showed similar for all sizes. Small sizes obtained very high prices because of the lack of fruits and sales into the Scandinavian market where small sizes are preferred. Very high prices for green avocado. The interest for avocado in this market seems to have been very low during the winter season. Hass avocado from Dominican Republic sold at Euro (week 10). Too high prices for avocado from Spain in this price sensitive market. Green varieties have been practically totally absent. PRICES March Euro/4 kg ctn Variety Sizes Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 FRANCE (*) Chile hass Colombia hass Israel hass Kenya hass Mexico hass Peru hass Spain hass Israel pin ardit Peru fue Spain reed NETHERLAND Chile hass Colombia hass Israel hass Kenya hass Mexico hass Morocco hass Peru hass Israel fue pin arad Kenya fue Peru fue Spain reed U. KINGDOM

3 Euro- 4kg cyn Chile hass undetermined Mexico hass undetermined Peru fue undetermined Spain green undetermined GERMANY Chile hass 18 (20 ) Colombia hass 18 (20 ) Israel hass 18 (20 ) Mexico (air) hass 18 (20 ) Spain hass 18 (20 ) * Prices are FOT port-of-delivery and can be increased 10-15% to obtain the price of the product delivered in main inland centres. Market perspectives The market will be low supplied in the coming weeks and prices could strongly increase if the demand will remain favourable. The Chilean fruits will fully leave the market in week and the Mediterranean origins season will go to an end in week 14 for Israel and will not last much longer for Spain. Thus, Mexico will be the only winter source in big volumes on the market in April which will nevertheless not be enough to satisfy the demand. The season from Mexico will most probably extend as long as the market will be low supplied. The arrivals from the summer sources will continue developing but the volumes from Peru are expected to become significant in weeks only while those from Kenya and South Africa will remain moderate during the whole month. The market availabilities should therefore become quite limited after the Easter promotions and prices could continue to increase especially if the demand, reactivated by the Easter programs, will maintain a satisfactory level. The demand for avocado is traditionally favourable in spring and if it will decrease again, for example reactivating with warmer temperatures only, the price increases could be smaller than expected but the product shortage should be felt in all cases at least until the first half of May. Prices might therefore reach record levels. The exports season from Peru is forecasted to reach tons this year, +15% in comparison to 2015; uncertainties exist about the effects of El Nino on the crop and especially about fruit sizing (for sure, sizes 12 will be short). The crop in South Africa is instead confirmed to have suffered losses because of the hail and export volumes should stand one million cartons below the initial estimates, for a season which will nevertheless reach cartons. Concerns will remain about the ripening stage of the summer origins entering the market particularly about the oil content necessary to lead the fruits to the requested colouration (dark pink/black in the case of hass). Other sources could appear in relatively small volumes but the necessity to maintain high quality standards should not encourage last minute imports. The transition between winter and summer sources will be taking place also in the green avocado market for which the same considerations about volumes, demand and prices apply Average market prices Hass ' w1 w2 w3 w4 w5 w6 w7 w8 w9 w10 w11 w12 Chile Colombia Israel Mexico Morocco Spain Peru

4 Euro -4 kg ctn Average market prices Green varieties (16)' Israel Spain Peru w1 w2 w3 w4 w5 w6 w7 w8 w9 w10 w11 w12 Notes This report has been prepared as a service to exporters and industries in developing countries by the International Trade Centre (ITC) with the objective to provide indications on market prices and market trends to support producers, exporters, sector associations and other private or public organizations in their decisions and policies. Quotations are price indications that give a global view of the market; prices are average FOT wholesale market prices; if not otherwise stated prices are per 4 kg carton, products imported by sea/truck; all prices are in Euro. Exchange rates of 29/3/ EURO 1 USD United Kingdom 0,785 0,700 USD 1,121 1,000 Euro 1,000 0,892 General abbreviations ctn = carton org = organic prep = pre-packed ex-quai = ex-port of delivery rte = ready to eat air = imported by air fot = free on truck sdls = seedless sea = imported by sea gr = green tru = truck-lorry Product abbreviations ard = ardith fue = fuerte pin = pinkerton bac = bacon hass = hass reed = reed edr = edranol lula = lula ryan = ryan ett = ettinger nab = nabal trop = tropical fino = fino wur = wurtz zut = zutano mini= stoneless avocado / avocat cornichon / mini aguacate / cocktail

5 The mention of specific product industries or certain commercial products and brand names does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ITC in preference to others of similar nature. We welcome new sources of information and news that subscribers and readers might have on products and markets covered by the report as well as inquiries and information requests. For these purposes or for other information about the report please contact

Prices - Week 13, March 2015 (Euro/4 kg ctn) Colombia Hass

Prices - Week 13, March 2015 (Euro/4 kg ctn) Colombia Hass Avocado Market Trends and Prices March 2015 Market trends March 2015 Low arrivals and calm demand characterized the first half of the month. The global supply has been stable and moderate and, with limited