The Demography of Indonesia in Comparative Perspective (Peter McDonald)

Transcription

1 Discussins n The Demgraphy f Indnesia in Cmparative Perspective (Peter McDnald) Elan Satriawan Dept f Ecnmics UGM

2 Paper Summary Relatively cncise paper, yet cver deep discussins n main demgraphy issues f Indnesia and prvide cmparisn f Indnesia with sme neighbring cuntries in the regin Cmes at the right time addressing current and relevant cncerns n Indnesia ppulatin Issue in data quality leading t uncertainty Alternative measurements its advantages and disadvantages cncern n ppulatin explsin Offers alternative perspective n Indnesia s slw demgraphic transitin and slw decline f fertility The link with the ecnmy and plicy when discussing abut, demgraphic bnus and thers, and what t d t materialize it Cnclude with sme messages: Imprtance f quality demgraphic data and its measurement Ensuring the fertility decline but nt t fast, nt t much. Imprtance f educatin and skilling the wrking age

3 Quality f Data Prblem in census data, particularly f 2000, and indicatrs measurement have created uncertainty n which Indnesia demgraphic figures and frecast t believe Causing: Misled frmulatin in ppulatin plicy and Disprprtinate cncern n ppulatin size Hw t slve the prblem in data quality? Directly nt much discussed in the paper. But PM shws hw t deal with it: cmparing the measurement results using alternative methds and data Imprtant agenda is t d the knwledge capacity building fr statistical agency staffs and enumeratrs.

4 Ppulatin size, reversed ppulatin grwth, slwing in fertility rate: blessings in disguised? PM ffers less alarming, if nt mre ptimistic, stand n large ppulatin size, reversed ppulatin grwth and slwing fertility rate What happen in ther cuntries explain it: sme effrts reverse the ppulatin grwth and fertility rate sme thrugh migratin plicy ver cncerns n negative ppulatin grwth and ageing ppulatin. Can be blessings in disguised fr Indnesia...s nt yet time t be panic But still thse may lead t real prblem if educatin sectr can nt serve all and emplyment sectr des nt prvide jbs fr the wrking age grups

5 It s nt in labr supply, rather in labr prductivity.. Given current demgraphic situatin, definitely we d nt have prblem with labr supply Current age structure shws that ur prductive-age grup is grwing Open unemplyment rate 7.39 Rather the issues is n the distributin and lw prductivity f labr supply While in mst sectrs, labr prductivity has imprved gradually, but grwth f prductivity has been slwing Data frm Sakernas shws labr prductivity has been decline frm 3.8% t 3.3% during perid f and Internatinally, Indnesia labr prductivity and cmpetitiveness has been lagging behind WDR 2013 shws Indnesia is behind China, Thailand and Malaysia.

6 Demgraphic Bnus..r Burden? What is called demgraphic bnus seems t be just the ptential.need the right plicies t materialize the bnus and s that benefit the ecnmy Issue 1: quality f wrkers while jb skills are increasing, mst f labr frce still nly has basic educatin. Imprving access t secndary and higher educatin is a must as well as imprving quality f wrker thrugh jb training. Issue 2: mis-match demand and supply in labr market while the emplyers find it hard t find semi-skilled wrkers, a significant share f senir secndary and higher graduates are emplyed in unskilled jbs. Issue 3: jbless grwth Indnesia need imprve the quality f grwth, strengthening industrial structures and prmting labr-absrbing sectrs. Let the three issues unreslved wuld lead the ptential bnus t becme the ecnmic and scial burden

7 Thank Yu