Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, India

Transcription

1 Professor and Principal Scientist Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture Indian Agricultural Research Institute New Delhi 11 12, .

2 In a 1.5 o C world extreme low yields will be more in tropical regions Schleussner et al., 218

3 Temperature influences crop growth, development and yield GHGs, (CO 2 ) Temperature Direct effects Growth rates, Phenology, Crop duration leaf growth and senescence Photosynthetic and respiratory rates, Other metabolic rates Transpiration rate Pollen viability/ spikelet sterility grain filling rate Soil nitrogen and carbon dynamics Pest and disease Rainfall, RH, WS, VPD In direct effects Dry matter A and P Grain number, wt Yield

4 Crops and varieties differ due to their response rate to cardinal temperatures Response rate Optimal Lethal Base Temperature Max Lethal

5 Relative Pn rate Relative acceleration Temperature thresholds (ºC) vary for different phenophases and processes for a crop/ variety : Wheat Leaf initiation Shoot growth Root growth Phenolphases S-E V Ter. spikelet Anth GF Tbase Topt < Tmax 24. >21. > > Wheat yield will be affected in areas with seasonal mean min. and max. temp of 13/27 o C Relative Pn rate Secence accelation Day time temperature o C T mean Luo, 211 Naresh Kumar et al., 214a &b

6 Temperature thresholds (ºC) vary for different phenophases and processes for a crop/ variety Crop Event/processes Tbase Topt Tmax Rice Leaf growth Biomass 33 4 Yield Sorghum Veg. dev 8 34 Yield, Biomass Photosynthesis 44/34 Prasad et al., 26 Luo, 211

7 Temperature influences soil N & C dynamics 1. C and N mineralization 2. C and N immobilization 3. Urea hydrolysis 4. Nitrification 5. Volatilization 6. Denitrification Volatilization Temp (oc) Temperature thresholds vary for different pests and diseases

8 Integrating all effects (including management and soil) in a process based simulation model (InfoCrop V2.1) Aggarwal et al., 24

9 Production change (% from current) Projected impacts on Crops Climate change is projected to affect production of several crops Wheat Irrigated rice Rainfed rice Mustard Rainfed sorghum Irrigated kharif maize Soybean Potato (in P,H, ECUP) Coconut Naresh Kumar et al., 211, 12, 13, 14, Naresh Kumar and Aggarwal, 213

10 Simple agronomic adaptations can make a change Impact Adaptation gains Impacts of climate change on major crops in 22 scenario Yield deviation (% of mean yields of 2-7) Yield deviation (% of mean yields of 2-7) without adaptation Net vulnerability, % Impact with adaptation + Sowing date + Variety + Irrigation efficiency + Fertilizer use efficiency + Additional inputs -1 1 Adaptation options Wheat Rice Maize Mustard Rice Sorghum Soybean Irrigated Rainfed Wheat Rice Maize Mustard Rice Sorghum Soybean Irrigated Rainfed Naresh Kumar et al., ,214,214,215

11 Rupees Rupees/acre Adaptation cost and benefits form adaptation intervention farms 3 Change in cost and profit margins due to adaptation 2 1 Marginal farmers (<1 ha) Small farmers (~1-2 ha) Medium farmers (~2-3 ha) Marginal (<1 ha) Small (~1-2 ha) Medium (~2-3 ha) Naresh Kumar et al., 216 Cost Cost Profit Profit Intervention Nonintervention * Intervention Nonintervention

12 Can download at WWW: iari.res.in