Outlook for Global Fish Feed Supply. NASF Bergen, 05 March 2015

Transcription

1 Outlook for Global Fish Feed Supply NASF Bergen, 05 March 2015

2 - GLOBAL INNOVATOR IN AQUAFEED - We feed every third farmed salmon 2

3 1 FEED DEMAND 2 FEED SUPPLY 3 RAW MATERIAL 3

4 Salmonid feed: A small part of the total aquafeed market, but (almost) everything to EWOS Salmonid Feed 4 (9%) Scotland Canada 5% 10% Vietnam 5% 597 (49%) Norway 39 (91%) Other Aquafeed Chile 370 (31%) 2014 Aquafeed Market Estimate (Million Tonnes) 2014 EWOS Sales Volume by Geography (Thousand Tonnes) Source: Transparency Market Research, EWOS 4

5 The global salmonid feed market may pass 4mT already in % % % +2% % 45% % % +5% % % % Norway Chile 48% 26% 31% 34% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 34% 33% Other 26% 23% 22% 22% 22% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% Source: EWOS, Kontali Analyse 5

6 We expect 2 to 3 times more growth in feed demand over the next 3 years +16% +7% Norway Chile Other yrs yrs 2018 Improving biological conditions -> especially in Chile Improving productivity -> especially in Norway Clear agendas for growth in other markets too Source: EWOS, Kontali Analyse 6

7 Perhaps more if Norwegian farmers can leverage productivity potential The best farmers are producing more than 1600T HOG per licence and the average was 1082T per licence in 2013 If only half of this gap is closed (1300T/licence), productivity increases by some 20% The knock on effect for feed demand in Norway is significant And feed is a big part of the solution 7

8 1 FEED DEMAND 2 FEED SUPPLY 3 RAW MATERIAL 8

9 A new era for feed supply? Backwards Integration Market Consolidation Marine Harvest has added 280kT of capacity in Norway Stated ambitions to consider expansion in other markets Mitsubishi acquired Cermaq in 2014 MH acquired Aquinova and plans to merge with Aquachile Is integration a model for the industry going forward? Source: EWOS, Marine Harvest How will market consolidation impact independent feed suppliers? 9

10 Contestable market contraction in Norway is a challenge for now New entrant to Norwegian feed supply has added c.280kt capacity Reducing the contestable market by some 16% % This extra capacity will not be offset by growth in demand until 2018, earliest So, sufficient capacity to supply demand in Norway for the foreseeable future Contestable Market Total Market Source: EWOS, Marine Harvest, Kontali Analyse 10

11 EWOS will CONTINUE TO INNOVATE Feed Industry: Pioneers for aquaculture research Enabling growth in salmon farming Bulk delivery from feed factory to fish farm sites Collectively reinvesting up to MNOK 500 in R&D every year 80 years of innovation makes the difference for EWOS Health feed like EWOS ROBUST 11

12 EWOS Fish Health Centre Puerto Montt, Chile 12

13 1 FEED DEMAND 2 FEED SUPPLY 3 RAW MATERIAL 13

14 A decade of sustainable growth Marine Ingredients EWOS Feed 1,0 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 EWOS Feed Fishmeal Fishoil ,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 Global feed sales have doubled in the period Marine ingredients used has been static at c.400,000 t/yr or less EWOS buys the same volume of marine ingredients now as we did 10 years ago Marine ingredients has declined from c.60% to c.30% of the formulation 14

15 1. How to meet growing demand when supply of marine protein is scarce? Full scale trial in SW cages 2 low marine diets (5% marine protein, 5% EPA+DHA) Differing dietary level of SPC (25% and 35%) Trial ran for 343 days until the fish reached almost 6 kg. The final results confirm no difference in growth, FCR, fish quality or slaughter yield between any of the diets. Source: EWOS Innovation 15

16 Still plenty of potential from residual trimmings, but challenging to accomplish Source: FAO 16

17 And lots of irons in the fire to recycle and upcycle nutrients 17

18 2. How will the industry live with scarcity of fish oil? The omega 3 trap : Fish oil demand may exceed supply very soon at 7.5% EPA+DHA of fat in salmonid feed OR in 2019 at 5% OR in 2021 at 3%. Potential for Differentiated Salmon products? Source: EWOS Innovation 18

19 EPA+DHA from feed to fillet Source: EWOS Innovation 19

20 3. What might salmonid feed look like in future? 90 s 69% 12% 19% Today 31% 53% 16% Future? 10% 69% 10% 11% Marine Plant Novel Other 100% Source: EWOS Proteins and Oils Binders and micro ingredients 20

21 Standards & Certifications: building reputation in the value chain International standards ISO, GlobalGap IFFO RS ProTerra certified Soya ASC Responsible Feed Standard EU Life Cycle Assessment method for feed GRI Sustainability Reporting 21

22 In Summary A Growing Need for Feed Expect 2 or 3 times more growth in salmonid feed demand in the next 3 years Perhaps more if Norwegian farmers can leverage productivity potential EWOS will defend its position as global innovator in aquafeed New Era for Innovative Feed Supply Market changes present challenges both through consolidation and integration 80yrs of innovation makes the difference for EWOS Support Growth by Doing More with Less Lower fishmeal diets inspire even more focus on developing alternative protein sources Will the omega 3 trap inspire further salmon product differentiation? Standards and certifications are here to stay and are important to help to build reputation through the value chain 22

23 Thank you 23