Loss and damage from drought in the North Bank Region of The Gambia. Sidat Yaffa

Transcription

1 Loss and damage from drought in the North Bank Region of The Gambia Sidat Yaffa November 2013

2 Loss and damage from drought in The North Bank Region of the Gambia Author Affiliation: Dr. Sidat Yaffa is Assistant Professor at the School of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, University of The Gambia This report should be cited as: Yaffa, S. (2013). Loss and damage from drought in the North Bank Region of The Gambia. Loss and Damage in Vulnerable Countries Initiative, case study report. Bonn: United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security. Layout: Miquel Colom Responsibility for the content solely lies with the author. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations University or other individual views of the organizations carrying out the Loss and Damage in Vulnerable Countries Initiative. 2

3 Loss and damage from drought in The North Bank Region of the Gambia Table of Content List of Acronyms and Abbreviations... 4 Acknowledgements... 5 Executive Summary... 6 Chapter 1: Introduction Climate Change and Climate Variability Changing Rainfall in West Africa Coping with Drought and Adaptive Strategies Objectives & Research Questions... 9 Chapter 2: Research Area Rainfall Relationship between Rainfall and Crop Production Methods Livelihoods Livelihood Activities Food Security Loss and Damage from Extreme Drought Impacts of Extreme Drought Coping Measures Adaptation to Changing Rainfall Patterns Loss and Damage Conclusions Adaptation and Coping Measures Loss and Damage Way Forward References Suggested Reading Appendix 1: List of Key Informant Interviewees Appendix 2: List of Surveyed Villages Appendix 3: Loss and Damage Case Study Questionnaire

4 Loss and damage from drought in The North Bank Region of the Gambia List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ADWAC CDDP CDKN CIESIN FAO HH-H ICCCAD IPCC LDCs NBR NDMA UNFCCC UNU WFP Agency For The Development of Women & Children (The Gambia) Community-Driven Development Project (The Gambia) Climate and Development Knowledge Network Center for International Earth Science Information Network Food and Agriculture Organization Household head International Centre for Climate Change and Development Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change Least Developed Countries North Bank Region National Disaster Management Agency (The Gambia) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United Nations University World Food Programme 4

5 Loss and damage from drought in The North Bank Region of the Gambia Acknowledgements The author would like to thank the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security in Bonn (Germany), and Dr. Koko Warner in particular, for providing the opportunity to conduct this case study in the North Bank Region of The Gambia. The research coordinator for the case studies of the Loss and Damage in Vulnerable Countries Initiative, Dr. Kees van der Geest, is thanked for his untiring efforts to make sure that the study was conducted professionally. Dr. Koen Kusters provided valuable support in the write-up phase. The study crew (enumerators, supervisors, and driver) are all thanked for their hard work out in the field during the data collection period. I would also like to thank Miquel Colom Roca for his great efforts checking and cleaning the household survey data. Finally, the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) is appreciated for providing funding to make this study a reality. Background of the CDKN Loss and Damage in Vulnerability Countries Initiative In 2010 the UNFCCC Conference of Parties decided in Cancun to establish a Work Program to consider approaches to address loss and damage associated with climate impacts in developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change and climate variability. At the Least Developed Countries (LDC) strategic retreat in Dhaka in early February 2012 at ICCCAD, the Steering Committee requested the United Nations University to create a call for ideas about case studies on loss and damage, which the LDC Chair then circulated to all LDC delegates. Short proposals were collected in mid-march, after which a shortlist was created and the Steering Committee made the final decisions on case studies and local partners based on the proposals and criteria outlined in the call for research ideas. The case studies were meant to help inform LDC decision-making in the UNFCCC process as well as to serve national decision-making and planning processes. 5

6 Loss and damage from drought in The North Bank Region of the Gambia Executive Summary This study explores the impact of droughts, people s coping and adaptive behaviour, and associated loss and damage in the North Bank Region of The Gambia. We defined loss and damage as the adverse effects of climate variability and climate change that people have not (yet) been able to cope with or adapt to. It includes impacts of extreme weather events, such as extreme droughts, and slow-onset climatic changes, such as changing rainfall patterns. A study about impacts of droughts, people s responses and residual loss and damage We collected data with a household survey (371 households in 30 villages), 60 focus group discussions and ten in-depth interviews in the North Bank Region of The Gambia. All respondents experienced erratic rainfall in the last twenty years, negatively affecting their households. For the majority of the households the impact of the drought in 2011 has been particularly severe, causing crop failure, rising food prices and food insecurity. Droughts like the one in 2011 also caused the drying up of local hand-dug wells, affecting water availability for livestock. Coping measures not enough to avoid loss and damage Ninety-five present of the drought-affected households employed coping measures like selling personal properties and livestock, looking for blue-collar jobs in the city, selling firewood, and fishing in order to generate income to buy food. Also, about half of the respondents indicated that they received food aid from the government or NGOs. Despite these measures, 64% of the respondents indicated that the combination of all the measures were not enough to avoid losses and damages. The drought forced them to decrease their food consumption and/or to reduce their household s expenditures, for example by pulling their children out of school. This indicates insufficient coping capacity. Moreover, the selling of livestock and withdrawing children from school are likely to have long-term negative implications for the household. Such measures can be considered erosive in that they may compromise the productive capacity and income-earning opportunities of the household in the future. 6

7 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia 1. Introduction 1.1 Climate Change and Climate Variability When studying climate-related loss and damage, as this study does, it is important to distinguish climate change and climate variability. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007a: 667) defines climate change as a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate variability refers to: variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability) (IPCC, 2007b: 872). Climate variability may be due to natural processes or anthropogenic forcing The IPCC (2007a: 667) further notes: Distinguishing between the effects of external influences and internal climate variability requires careful comparison between observed changes and those that are expected to result from external forcing. These expectations are based on physical understanding of the climate system. The warming of the climate system in the last 50 years is a result of the cumulative effect of all the natural and human drivers. The dominant influence since 1750 has been an increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide (IPCC, 2007a). The dominant influence since 1750 has been an increase in carbon dioxide 1.2 Changing Rainfall in West Africa In the Sahel region in West Africa decreasing rainfall has led to devastating droughts during the last three decades of the 20th century. Rainfall data show that the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s were much drier compared to the period between 1920 and 1960s, which seems mostly due to a reduction of rainfall events during the monsoon period (IPCC, 2007a). Also, the length of the rainy season seems to be increasingly variable. The long-term trend in the Sahel is towards more drought and greater rainfall variability This is having negative consequences for the people in the area, who mostly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Due to climate change, dry areas in the Sahel region in West Africa are expected to become even drier in the future, with longer and more frequent periods of drought. People in the Sahel countries, such as The Gambia, are particularly vulnerable to the consequences of such climatic changes, because 7

8 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia of high poverty levels in the area (IPCC, 2007b; FAO, 2008, Brown and Crawford, 2008). People in the Sahel are vulnerable to drought because they rely heavily on rainfed agriculture for food and income According to Gaye and Gibba (2004) high variability in rainfall in the last three decades in The Gambia led to instable agricultural production, particularly by the small-scale farmers who form 70% of the population. According to the Gambian Department of Agriculture (2005) further temperature and rainfall changes will have significant effects for local people. The department estimates, for example, that there will be a 40% drop in groundnut yields (one of the major cash crops in the country) due to rising temperatures (see also Njie, 2006). 1.3 Coping with Drought and Adaptive Strategies Despite high vulnerability to drought and changing rainfall patterns, farmers in the Sahel are not passive victims (Dietz et al. 1992). They have various livelihood options in response to climatic and other stressors. The coping and adaptation strategies they adopt vary according to agroecological zone, socio-economic context, policy environment and household characteristics, such as asset base, occupation and household demographics (Webb and Reardon, 1992). Coping strategies are short-term responses to impacts of extreme weather, such as droughts Coping strategies differ from adaptation strategies. While coping strategies are short-term responses to unusual events, such as extreme weather, adaptation involves more permanent changes in people s livelihoods in response to longer-term processes (Davies, 1993; van der Geest, 2004). In reality, the difference between coping and adaptation is not always clear. When households start to face crises almost every year, they need to adopt coping strategies continuously, and this way, coping becomes adaptation (Geest and Dietz, 2004). Adaptation involves more permanent changes in people s livelihoods in response to longer-term climatic changes In this study coping is defined as the short-term responses to the impacts of extreme weather events, while adaptation is defined as the longerterm responses to more gradual (slow onset) changes. Coping strategies have varying time relevance (Devereux, 1993): they can involve discrete events (e.g. migration of a household member), a series of discrete events (e.g. selling livestock), or continuous processes (e.g. reducing food intake). Although there may be a certain order in people s responses to stress, different responses often 8

9 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia occur simultaneously, as parallel processes rather than sequential events (Devereux; 1993; van der Geest, 2004). While coping mechanisms are needed for survival in harsh conditions, according to Davies (1993), they may undermine longer-term development. They enable people to stand still, but prevent them from moving ahead. Similarly, de Waal (1989) argues that coping strategies can be erosive when they undermine future livelihood sustainability. A recent case study about loss and damage from floods in Kenya, found strong examples of erosive coping (Opondo, 2013). Coping measures can be erosive when they undermine future livelihood sustainability Besides coping and adaptation, preventive measures (or ex-ante risk management) are a third type of livelihood strategies in risk-prone environemnts, such as the Sahel (van der Geest and Dietz, 2004). Preventive measures differ from adaptation strategies in that they are a response to usual risk and uncertainty in a given environment, while adaptation measures are in response to changing conditions. 1.4 Objectives & Research Questions This case study explores loss and damage in the North Bank Region of The Gambia. As loss and damage is a new concept in climate change research, no commonly accepted definition is available yet. In this study, it refers to the negative effects of climate variability and climate change that households have not been able to cope with or adapt to (Warner et al., 2013). This includes the inability to respond to climate stresses adequately and the costs associated with existing coping and adaptive strategies. Such costs can be direct, but they can also involve adverse effects in the longer term (erosive coping and mal-adaptation). The costs can be monetary as well as non-monetary. Loss and damage varies across households, communities and societies according to their level of vulnerability and resilience (Warner et al. 2012). In this study, loss and damage is defined as the adverse effects of climate variability and change that people have not been able to cope with or adapt to The central question is: How do extreme droughts lead to loss and damage among households in The North Bank Region of The Gambia? The central question is operationalized through the following sub-questions: 1. What is the impact of extreme droughts on livelihoods? 2. How do households deal with this impact? 3. What kinds of losses and damages are incurred? 9

10 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia Figure 1.1 Conceptual framework Source: Warner et al. (2013) Figure 1.1 shows how we conceptualise loss and damage. Households use a variety of measures to deal with slow-onset changes and abrupt climatic events. Loss and damage occurs when: (i) existing coping/adaptation measures are not enough to avoid negative effects; (ii) coping/adaptation measures have costs (economic, social, cultural, health, etc.) that are not regained; (iii) despite short-term merits, measures have negative effects in the longer term ( erosive coping ); and (iv) people are not willing or able to adopt any measures resulting in negative effects on their livelihoods (Warner et al. 2013). 10

11 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia 2. Research Area Occupying a total area of 11,300 sq km, with a population density of 130 persons per sq km, the Republic of The Gambia is one of the most densely populated countries in continental Africa. The country lies between latitude 13 and 14 North, and 17 and 12 West, and consists of a narrow strip of land some 400 km long and 30 km wide on both sides of The Gambia River. The study area (Fig. 2.1) is located in the North Bank Region (NBR) of The Gambia. It is one of the six Regions in the country. The North Bank Region consists of six local administrative districts headed by a District Chief called Seyfo. According to the 2003 census, The Gambia had 1.3 million inhabitants, of which 172,835 were living in the North Bank Region. The area is characterised by poor soil structure and fertility and has less vegetative cover compared to the rest of the country. Because of the low vegetative cover, the North Bank Region is highly susceptible to extreme weather conditions; there is less vegetation to act as soil cover during times of heavy rains in the rainy season or during windstorms during the dry season. Figure 2.1 Land cover and villages surveyed in North Bank Region of The Gambia Map created by CIESIN Virtually all residents in the North Bank Region depend directly or indirectly on the agricultural sector and poor or failed harvests seriously threaten the food security in the area. Because of its vulnerability (low vegetative cover, high soil erosion, low crop production, high dependence on agriculture), the North Bank Region was chosen as the focus of this case study. 11

12 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia 2.1 Rainfall The rain-bearing systems over West Africa move from east to west. The east usually receives rain between the end of May and the beginning of June, which is about a week or two before it starts raining in the west. The western part of The Gambia is influenced by the wind regime from the sea, which brings in additional moisture laden winds. The south of the country receives more rain than the northern part of the country, and the North Bank Region is particularly dry (Gaye, 2004). The rainfall record registered at Banjul (capital city of The Gambia) shows a maximum annual total of 1,953.8 mm in 1893 and a minimum of mm in 1983 (Figure 2.2), representing the driest year in the history of Gambian meteorological records (Gibba, 2002). Historical records show that since the late 1960s rainfall in The Gambia has been on the decline (Figure 2.2). Before 1968 the country average rainfall was over 1,000 mm, while this declined to about 755 mm for the period With relatively higher rainfall received in the late 1990s, the country average for the period of 1971 to 2000 has increased again to 764 mm (Gaye, 2004). Drought has been a recurrent phenomenon in The Gambia in the last 30 years. The erratic rainfall pattern is similar to that of the whole Sahel region (The Gambia Department of Water Resources, 2003). The most recent severe drought in the study area occurred in 2011 (Figure 2.3). Figure 2.2 Annual rainfall in Banjul ( ) Source: Department of Water Resources, The Gambia Government 12

13 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia Figure 2.3 Annual rainfall in Kerewan, North Bank Region ( ) Source: Department of Water Resources, The Gambia Government Notes: Missing data: 1965, 1968, Relationship between Rainfall and Crop Production The link between rainfall and crop production is not always clear. The stage of growth during which a crop is exposed to drought or heat is particularly important. For example, when a crop is flowering or fruiting, it is sensitive to changes in temperature and moisture. It is sometimes difficult to point at cause-and-effect relationships between drought and crop production (Zaal et al., 2004). There could be other intervening variables whose impacts on crop production may be difficult to isolate from those of drought. Those variables could include pest and disease infestation, declining soil fertility, and occasional difficulties to access farm inputs (Jallow and Ceesay, 1999). Jallow (1995) attempted to estimate the losses in crop production by farmers in The Gambia during the 1990 drought. According to that study a 27% fall below normal rainfall in that year generated a 43% (55,000 metric tonnes) decline in groundnut production, 10% (7,000 metric tonnes) in coarse grains, and 28% (64,000 metric tonnes) for all other crops. The date of onset and the continuity of rains are important variables for planning agricultural activities, particularly sowing, in order to reduce the risk of replanting or total crop failure. According to Gaye (2004), farmers use various signs to depict the onset of rains. The most popular ones are the full sprouting of a particular baobab seedling, the arrival of the first heavy rain 13

14 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia after 15th June (used to determine the planting of millet), and the arrival of the second heavy rain (used for the planting of groundnut and maize). A similar observation was made in Niger (Davey et al.1976), where the planting date for millet coincides with the first occurrence of 20mm of rain over two days. 1 1 Not all farmers will make their choices based on observed rainfal; some may simply follow other farmers. 14

15 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia 3. Methods We randomly selected 31 villages in all six districts of the North Bank Region using a list of all the villages in the North Bank Region produced by the national government based on 2003 census data. 2 The research questions were answered using a mixed method approach, involving a combination of desk study, qualitative methods (focus group discussions, key informant interviews and in-depth interviews) and more quantitative methods (household survey). and old, and different wealth groups by organising separate focus group discussions for these different categories. Key Informant Interviews: Interviews with key informants were used to gather information about the activities of government agencies and NGOs in the area, particularly those that aim to address adverse effects of climate variability and climate change. Desk Study: The desk study consisted of a literature review and an analysis of existing data about the climate variable (e.g. rainfall data) and the impact variable (e.g. crop yields). The literature review also focused on relevant existing knowledge about the impacts of climate change, coping mechanisms and adaptation. Droughts in The Gambia are not a new phenomenon, and we aimed to build on existing knowledge regarding impacts of and responses to droughts. Focus Group Discussions: We organised focus group discussions with local people to gain an indepth understanding of the dynamics between key concepts of this research (climate threats, impact, vulnerability, coping, adapting and loss and damage). We were able to depict the different experiences of men and women, young 2 Eventually only 30 villages were surveyed. One village could not be surveyed because the case study team received word on the date of the survey that the village had a funeral and therefore they could not attend to our interviews. In-depth Interviews: A select number of respondents in the study villages were interviewed in more depth to gather stories of loss and damage. Enumerators doing the household survey (see next point) were instructed to alert the principal investigator when they came across a household that had experienced particularly adverse effects of weather-related extreme events. Household survey: We conducted a household survey, covering 30 villages. The questionnaire contained both open ended and closed questions, divided in four sections: (i) respondent and household characteristics, sources of livelihood and vulnerability; (ii) impact of and coping with extreme events (iii) impact of and adapting to gradual changes; and (iv) vulnerability, gender and policy. The number of households selected per village depended on the population of the village (see Appendix F). We interviewed 371 respondents above 19 years and with an average age of 51. In case the head of the household was not available, a household member who could 15

16 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia represent the head of the household was interviewed. Most (86%) of the respondents were men (Table 3.1). The research area is a patriarchal society, where men usually are the heads of households. The majority of the respondents interviewed belong to the Wolof ethnic group, followed by Fulani, Serrer and several other ethnic groups. The Mandinka ethnic group is mostly found in the Lower, Central, and Upper Badibbu Districts of North Bank Region and the Serrers are mostly found in Jokadu District. The Wollof ethnic group has the highest literacy rate, because they tend to attend local Islamic schools, where they learn to read the Arabic alphabet. For the majority of the respondents the level of education does not go beyond primary school education. Only 28 respondents had entered secondary school or higher. Most respondents work primarily as farmers. Only four percent of the respondents have a white-collar job (mostly teachers). Table 3.1 Characteristics of respondents Characteristic Percentage of respondents Sex Female 14% Male 86% Household type Single headed 7% Polygamous marriage 50% Monogamous marriage 43% Ethnic group Wollof 29% Mandinka/Jahanka 24% Fula 23% Serrer 16% Others 8% Religion Muslim 99% Christian 1% 16

17 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia 4. Livelihoods 4.1 Livelihood Activities Figure 4.1 shows the percentage of households involved in various activities in the research area. Among the 371 surveyed households, all but one household is involved in crop farming, producing crops like millet and sorghum for subsistence purposes, and groundnuts for the market. Crop sales and non-farm income are the most important cash income sources. Additional activities for earning cash income are the sale of tree crops and livestock (produce), fishing, farm labour and remittances (Figure 4.1 and 4.2). The total annual cash income in the research area is estimated to be US$621, with a third earning less than $200 a year (Table 4.1). The male head of the household usually earns most of the cash income. He will buy food and give the food to his wife or wives to cook for the family. When a woman earns the money it is usually still the husband who will make the final decision on how the money should be spent. Figure 4.1 Proportion of households with different livelihood activities (n=360) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Figure 4.2 Contribution to total annual cash income (n=341) non-farm income 30% remittance income 13% farm labour 2% crop sales 31% tree produce 7% fish sales 3% livestock sales 14% Table 4.1 Total annual cash income Total cash income (US$/year) Percentage of households % % % % % >2000 6% According to customary law, farmers individual plots are considered individual ownership. Most (97%) of the families indicated to own their own lands. Of the 11 households who do not own land themselves, most borrow land from others to farm. Farmers can get access to uncultivated lands that do not belong to them relatively easily by negotiating with the land owner. Ninety-five 17

18 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia percent of the households use animal traction and 13% have irrigated lands (Table 4.2). The main crops in the area are millet and sorghum, groundnut, maize, rice, cassava and beans (Table 4.3). Eighty-four percent of the households are primarily subsistence oriented, but they usually also produce crops for sale. It is typically the women who take care of vegetable gardens for household consumption, while the men are involved in the production of groundnuts for the market and millet/sorghum for household use. The average monetary income from selling crops in the market is US$234 per year. Table 4.2 Characteristics of crop farmers Characteristic Households Table 4.3 Main crops Crop Number of farmers Owns land 97% Uses traction to farm the land 95% Employs farm labourers 41% Production is mainly subsistence oriented 84% Has some irrigated lands 13% Millet/Sorghum 347 Ground nut 326 Maize 267 Rice 146 Cassava 40 (Water)Melon/Pumpkin 29 Beans 24 Sesame 23 Table 4.4 Livestock Percentage of households that own livestock Average number of livestock Median number of livestock Max number of livestock Cows 57% Donkeys 59% Goats and sheep 83% Fowls 68% Horses 14% TLU* 98% *TLU= Tropical Livestock Units. Conversion factors: cattle: 0.7, trained oxen: 0.8, horse: 0.7, donkey: 0.5, sheep: 0.1, goats: 0.1; poultry: Livestock is widely used for the production of meat and milk, and occasionally for sale (Table 4.4). Of the farmers who own livestock (99% of all respondents), 48% said to have sold livestock in the past 12 months, generating on average US$190. Seventy-one percent of the households grow commercial trees, such as cashew nut and mango trees, and close to 30% indicated to sell tree products on the market, generating a mean income of US$142 per year. A smaller portion of 18

19 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia the research population is involved in farm labour (23%) and fishing (15%), with which they estimate to earn annually US$59 and US$195 respectively. Farmers generally have more than one income source, which is an important risk management strategy vis-à-vis climate stressors. Sixty-two percent of the households reported non-farm income (Table 4.5). In the last 12 months this generated on average US$161. Remittances are another important source of income, reported by 35% of the respondents. For more than half of these households remittances are received from a son who is working elsewhere often in the capital Banjul. Forty-three households receive remittances from abroad (mostly the US and Spain). The mean annual cash income from remittances is US$259, while the value of non-monetary remittances is estimated to be US$153 per year. 4.2 Food Security Most respondents said that their farming activities were primarily for self-subsistence purposes. Still, 60% indicated to buy more than half of the food that their household consumed. Sixty-six percent of the respondents experienced food shortage in the last 12 months, and 79% mentioned to have experienced food shortage in the last ten years. Figure 4.3 shows the months in which households had to eat less because of food scarcity. It shows that June, July and August are the most critical months. As reasons for food scarcity respondents often mentioned crop failure due to drought, but also the lack of fertilizers, farm equipment and manpower, poor soils, and unemployment. Table 4.5 Types of non-farm income Type of non-farm income Percentage White collar salary 18% Blue collar wage 5% Petty trade 46% Natural resources-based (e.g. firewood) 3% Larger business/trade 3% Other non-farm self-employed (construction, transport, etc) 42% Figure 4.3 Months in which households eat less due to food scarcity (% of households) 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 19

20 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia 5. Loss and Damage from Extreme Drought 5.1 Impacts of Extreme Drought All respondents indicated to have experienced a severe drought in recent years. Each respondent was asked to indicate the drought year that he or she remembered best (see Table 5.1). Subsequent questions (related to impact and coping mechanisms) would refer to that particular drought year. As table 5.1 shows, the majority of the respondents referred to the drought of With a closed question we asked the respondents whether the drought had negatively impacted their livelihoods (the answer-categories were: no; moderate; severe; and not applicable). Seventynine percent said that the impact had been severe, while 21% reported a moderate impact. Only one of the respondents a shopkeeper who did not farm said not to have been impacted by the drought at all. The majority of the respondents mentioned negative effects on crop production (Table 5.2). The average costs of negative drought impacts on crop production were estimated to be US$459,00 (Table 5.3), which is 74% of the average annual cash income in the research area. Table 5.1. Drought years remembered by respondents* Drought year Number of respondents *Only the years that were mentioned six or more times. Table 5.2. Impact of Drought Impact on: No Yes N/A* Crops 1,6% 98,4% 5 Livestock 20,8% 79,2% 30 Fishing 84,8% 15,2% 147 Economic trees 51,6% 48,4% 63 Trade / business 53,0% 47,0% 122 Food prices 5,3% 94,7% 31 House 79,5% 20,5% 84 Other 95,9% 4,1% 75 *N/A = not applicable or not available. Table 5.3. Loss Estimates (US$) 1 US$ = 31 GMD (rate of July/August 2012) Min Max Average Respondents who estimated loss Crops 1, ,06 459, Livestock 16, ,74 275,87 79 Fishing 0,19 967,74 200,12 10 economic trees 16,13 64,52 50,81 6 trade / business 25,81 645,16 167,47 30 food prices 3, ,48 129,95 85 House 16, ,42 965,16 15 other 22,58 645,16 191,

21 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia Figure 5.1 National production of the four most cultivated crops among the surveyed households (tonnes) 180, , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 Groundnut Maize Millet Rice paddy 40,000 20,000 0 Source: Based on FAO-STAT. Graph by Kees van der Geest. Extreme droughts obviously result in declining agricultural yields. Figure 5.1 presents the national production (in tonnes) of the four most cultivated crops among the surveyed households. The figure shows the declining production levels in The decrease was most drastic for millet; the production in 2011 was about half of the average (Table 5.4). After millet has reached maturity it is a reasonably drought-resistant crop, but when a drought hits during the germination phase, the losses can be high. Table 5.4 Declining production in 2011 Crop Decline 2011 from 2010 Decline 2011 from Groundnut 39.1% 24.6% Maize 44.8% 32.2% Millet 64.2% 47.5% Rice paddy 48.8% 1.5% Source: Calculated from FAO STAT Poor or failed harvests of food and cash crops threaten the food security in the area. This seems further aggravated by rising food prices. Not less than 95% of the respondents indicated that food prices increased as a result of the drought, 21

22 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia because the main food crops (rice, millet and sorghum) had become scarce in the market. In addition to the accounts of the interviewed farmers, we found other (anecdotal) sources claiming a drastic increase of food prices in 2011 (see, e.g., We have tried to verify this by analysing data on food prices from the online database of the World Food Programme (WFP), but this did not yield a clear picture. According to the WFP data, the price of rice in the North Bank Region did indeed increase in 2011 and continued to do so in 2012, but the trend is less clear when corrected for inflation (Figure 5.2). The price for millet, according to the WFP database, has been fluctuating, but does not show a clear increase in 2011 and 2012 (Figure 5.3). Figure 5.2 Rice price (GMD/500gr), based on six markets in the North Bank Region* Rice price Corrected for inflation 0 Source: Adapted from online database of the World Food Programme food prices) and the World Bank (inflation). Graph by Kees van der Geest. 22

23 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia Figure 5.3 Millet price (GMD/500gr), based on five markets in North Bank Region Millet price Corrected for inflation 0 Source: Adapted from online database of the World Food Programme food prices) and the World Bank (inflation). Graph by Kees van der Geest. Due to decreased or failed agricultural production, droughts lead to a reduction of caloric intake, which affects the health and well-being of people. Indeed, during extreme droughts, food insecurity becomes a major challenge. In addition to the effects on crop production and food prices, respondents stressed that droughts affect the availability of fresh water for their livestock, due to the drying up of some of the local hand-dug wells. Mr. Wally Joof of Kerr Jatta in Lower Niumi District expressed his situation as follows: My two cows died as a result of insufficient availability of forages due to the drought. Most of the village wells dried out or their water levels dropped seriously so that watering our livestock became a big challenge. The death of my cows worsened my economic condition because the two cows were my only source of income during times of need. According to most respondents unreliable rainfall has been an increasing problem. A participant in a focus group discussion explained: In the past you could have three months in a year with continuous rainfall, but now that does not happen anymore. And: In the past, one could comfortably predict the start and end of the rainy season, by observing the trees in the village and in the bush. For example, when the Baobab tree started getting new leaves. But now those local 23

24 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia signs are not reliable any longer. An oftenmentioned problem was that the rains did not continue after the first heavy downpours. To the farmers, the first rains traditionally function as a signal to start crop planting. When the rains do not continue after these first downpours, the germinating crops are likely to wither. It is often the distribution rather than the total amount of rainfall during the rainy season that is the most relevant factor in food crop production. According to 87% of the farmers their crop production has decreased over the last ten years (Table 5.5). As reason for the decline they commonly refer to droughts, but also to the lack of money to buy fertilizers and seeds, lack of manpower, and soil degradation. Increases in production are mostly related to increase in manpower and the adoption of fertilizer. Table 5.5 Crop trend in past ten years according to respondents Crop production trend Percentage of households Decrease a lot 69% Decrease a little 18% Remain the same 2% Increase a little 8% Increase a lot 3% 5.2 Coping Measures In response to a severe drought, 352 households adopted one or more active coping measures. Table 5.6 mentions the ways in which people dealt with droughts. The most common measure, mentioned by 69%, was the search for alternative ways to earn some cash income, in order to buy food. During times of drought people got involved in petty trade, fishing, selling firewood, masonry and other types of unskilled labour. Young men often migrated temporarily to urban centres to look for jobs as petty trader, night watchman, bricklayer, etc. More than half of those who migrated went to the capital, Bajul, and the West Coast Region, while 22% migrated abroad, mostly to Senegal. Women and elderly typically stayed home, trying to earn extra income in the village, for example by collecting firewood and selling it along the major highways leading to the capital city. Women also said to sell the vegetables they would normally use for consumption, in order to supplement the family income and to buy staple food. Table 5.6 Ways to cope with drought (N=371) Coping measure* Looked for extra income earning activities Percentage of households 69% Sold properties 55% Received support from organisations Received support form other people 48% 47% Migrated 25% Other 13% *The categories were predefined in the questionnaire Another common strategy is the sale of some household properties, which was reported by 200 respondents. Forty-eight percent of all respondents sold some of their livestock during drought periods. Some farmers (2%) also reported to have sold farm equipment such as ploughs. These are typical examples of erosive coping, as it 24

25 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia compromises future production activities. Livestock, in particular, is a vital productive asset, used for traction and for transporting crops. The sale of livestock to offset the negative impacts of drought thus may have long-term implications for a household s productive capacity. To address the food insecurity situation in 2011, the Gambia government s NDMA, the World Food Program of the United Nations, the Red Cross and local Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), such as ADWAC and CDDP set up a Joint Emergency Response Team. Forty-eight percent of all respondents received support consisting of two to three 50-kg bags of plain white rice, depending on the number of familymembers per household. In that year, food was distributed over the whole region, but the amount of food aid households received was widely considered insufficient by the respondents. Forty-seven percent mentioned to have asked for food or money from relatives, neighbours or friends. Several people noted that they had been embarrassed to do so, but had no other choice. Box 5.1 Impacts of the 2011 drought the story of Karamo Krubally Karamo Krubally from Malick Nana Village (Upper Niumi District) is a rice and groundnut farmer. He cultivates a total of five acres. The 2011 drought and subsequent crop failure caused severe havoc to his household. He says: Hunger started creeping onto my family like an eagle scavenging for a carcass. I was agitated most of the time, especially when my wife asked me for food to cook each day. I felt like a destitute person in the street. Because of the drought, we had to cut down our daily food intake from three times a day to two times a day and we had to eat smaller portions. My health deteriorated and I was feeling dizzy when standing. I went to the doctor who said that it was a result of low food intake. Our situation became even worse when my two work cows and a donkey became very weak due to lack of forage. The poor rainfall of that year had also affected the natural vegetation around the village where we graze our livestock. Almost all the grass was dry, and finding drinking water for the livestock was a challenge, as all the ponds around our farms that served as drinking points for the livestock dried out. Because of the weak physical condition of my work animals, I could not use them for long hours on the farm when the 2012 rains started setting in and when we had to prepare our fields. 25

26 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia 5.3 Adaptation to Changing Rainfall Patterns The majority of the respondents indicated to have implemented one or more long-term adaptation measures in order to deal with the increased unreliability of rainfall in the research area. Seventy-eight percent said to have made modifications in their agricultural practices. This implies, amongst others, the planting of commercial trees, mostly cashew and mango trees. These can provide cash income when agricultural crops fail. Moreover, many farmers seemed aware of the additional positive effects of tree planting, in terms of soil and water conservation. In addition, farmers indicated to spend more attention to vegetable farming, and to have shifted to the cultivation of early maturing crops and new seed varieties. In the focus group discussions many mentioned the uptake of Nerica rice 3, which is a drought-tolerant variety developed by the Africa Rice Center. The government started providing Nerica seeds to Gambian farmers in 2008 for free, and by now its use is widespread all over the country. Nerica a hybrid of the local cultivar and another cultivar from Asia needs less water compared to the local cultivar and can therefore be grown even in the uplands. Also, the new variety needs less time to mature and is said to be less dependent on pesticides and fertilizers. Depending on a small number of agricultural crops is widely considered risky due to the unreliable rainfall in the area. To decrease the 3 Nerica stands for NEw RICe for Africa. risks, 63% of the respondents indicated to have diversified the sources of cash income, and 23% mentioned migration as a structural adaptation measure. Some respondents said that they were sending children to school in order to become less dependent on the production of agricultural crops. Participants in the focus group discussions stated that they would like the government to help them with early-maturing crop cultivars and with diversifying their agricultural activities, for example through the introduction of small ruminant breeding and fattening projects. Some of the interviewees also expressed an interest in soil conservation techniques like building dikes and contouring techniques on their upland fields that would minimise soil erosion. Key experts stressed the need to implement an early-warning system that can help both farmers and extension workers to predict rainfall. 5.4 Loss and Damage As described above, the majority of the farmers have been trying to adapt to the increased unreliability of rainfall, and, when confronted with extreme drought, 95% of the respondents adopted active coping measures. Despite these adaptation and coping measures, 64% mentioned that a recent drought had forced them to modify their food consumption. An equal percentage mentioned that they had to reduce their household expenses in order to save money to buy food to survive. Approximately 50% of the respondents bought cheaper food items and cut down on luxury items such as salt, vegetables and meat, and 47% limited their food portion 26

27 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia sizes. About 20% indicated to eat fewer meals per day. Some of the adults in a household would, for example, resort to two instead of three meals per day, to make sure that there was enough food for the children, elderly and pregnant women. Twenty percent of all respondents said to have reduced expenses on school fees by taking their children out of school, and 15% mentioned reduced expenses for health care. Just like the selling of livestock, such measures allow the household to buy staple food and survive, but have a negative effect in the long term and can thus be considered forms of erosive coping. Box 5.2 Reducing expenses on school fees The story of Mr. Wally John Mr. Wally John of Mbullum Village, Lower Niumi District, said: During the 2011 drought I became sick and therefore I could not till enough land for crop cultivation. The little land that I was able to till could not produce enough harvest for my household. I did not have enough money to take care of my health and my children s school fees. My children were sent home from school because we had not paid their school fees. I used the little money I had for buying food. Table 5.7 Effectiveness of coping measures Did coping measures avoid negative effects? Percentage of households Still severe negative effects 39% Still moderate negative effects 24% Allowed to carry on 34% Situation improved 2% *n=298 (54 missing values) Of the coping households, 63% said that their measures had not been enough to offset the negative impacts of the extreme drought (Table 5.7). In the group of households that at the time of the research still experienced negative effects of the drought (see Table 5.1), 95% said that this was because the measures they adopted were not enough to avoid adverse effects, and 5% said that the coping strategies they adopted had costs that were not recovered. 27

28 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia 6. Conclusions 6.1 Adaptation and Coping Measures Extreme droughts in the North Bank Region of The Gambia lead to a decrease (and sometimes complete failure) of local crop yields and rising prices of food items, while the drying of local water wells leads to the loss of livestock. We found that most households have adopted adaptation measures to deal with the erratic nature of rainfall in the area, mostly to diversify their income sources and become less dependent on the production of a limited number of agricultural crops, for example by planting commercial trees. This not only diversifies people s livelihood portfolio, but also contributes to soil and water conservation, helping to retain moisture in the soil and decreasing the negative impact of the droughts on crop production. The adoption of a drought-resistant and early maturing seed variety by rice-growing farmers can also be considered a (government-induced) adaptation measure. When hit by a drought, 95% of the farmers indicated to take short-term coping measures to deal with the immediate negative impacts, for example by selling household property to obtain money for food, which was reported by 58% of the coping households (Figure 6.1). to reduce the expenses for their children s education by taking them out of school. Such drastic measures just like the sale of productive household assets are likely to have long-term negative implications. The selling of livestock, for example, compromises people s agricultural production, as the animals are used for traction and transporting crops (see also Yaffa, 2013). Figure 6.1 Tree diagram 6.2 Loss and Damage More than half of respondents indicated that the combination of adaptation and coping measures were not enough to ensure a basic standard of living, and that they had to decrease their food intake. In addition, 20% mentioned that they had 28

29 Loss and damage from drought in The Gambia 6.3 Way Forward Generally speaking, all forms of income diversification will help to ensure a basic level of income and food security when the main agricultural crops fail due to an extreme drought. Also, investments in irrigation schemes and water storage facilities may make farmers less vulnerable to erratic rainfall, while improved access to credit will facilitate them to access loans to purchase fertilizers and pesticides. Investments in systems that can predict rainfall patterns will help farmers and extension workers to plan agricultural activities. The widespread and successful adoption of a drought-resistant and early maturing rice seed variety points at the need for more research to improve varieties of other main staple crops as well, such as millet and sorghum. 29