AN ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN AGRI-EXPORT-IMPORT TRADE IN INDIA

Transcription

1 AN ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN AGRI-EXPORT-IMPORT TRADE IN INDIA Thesis submitted to the University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Business Administration in AGRIBUSINESS By MANGALAGOURI AVALI DEPARTMENT OF AGRIBUSINESS MANAGEMENT COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE, DHARWAD UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, DHARWAD JULY, 2014

2 ADVISORY COMMITTEE DHARWAD JULY, 2014 (R. A. YELEDHALLI) MAJOR ADVISOR Approved by : Chairman : (R. A. YELEDHALLI) Members : 1. (B. K. NAIK) 2. (B. L. PATIL) 3. (C. K. VENUGOPAL)

3 C O N T E N T S Sl. No. CERTIFICATE ACKNOWLEDGEMENT LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES 1. INTRODUCTION 2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE Chapter Particulars 2.1 To study the trends in export and import of agriculture products 2.2 To analyze the changes in the composition of export-import of agriculture products 2.3 To study the trends in Revealed Comparative Advantage of agriculture products exported from India 2.4 To suggest appropriate policy measures 3. METHODOLOGY 3.1 Description of the study area 3.2 Nature and sources of data 3.3 Analytical tools and techniques employed 4. RESULTS 4.1 Trends in export and import of agricultural products 4.2 Changes in the composition of export-import of agricultural products 4.3 Trends in Revealed Comparative Advantage of agricultural products exported from India 4.4 To suggest appropriate policy measures 5. DISCUSSION 5.1 Trends in export and import of agriculture products 5.2 Changes in the composition of export-import of agriculture products 5.3 Trends in revealed comparative advantage of agriculture products 5.5 To suggest appropriate policy measures 6. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS REFERENCES

4 LIST OF TABLES Table No. Title 4.1 Estimated trend values of India s Pulses exports from to 4.2 Estimated trend values of India s Tea exports from to Estimated trend values of India s Coffee exports from to 4.4 Estimated trend values of India s Cashew exports from to 4.5 Estimated trend values of India s Ground nut exports from to 4.6 Estimated trend values of India s Cotton exports from to 4.7 Estimated trend values of India s Tobacco exports from to 4.8 Estimated trend values of India s fruits and vegetables exports from to 4.9 Estimated trend values of India s Sugar exports from to 4.10 Estimated trend values of India s Marine products exports from to 4.11 Estimated trend values of India s Basmati rice exports from to 4.12 Estimated trend values of India s Spices exports from to 4.13 Estimated trend values of India s Pulses imports from to 4.14 Estimated trend values of India s Wheat imports from to 4.15 Estimated trend values of India s Rice imports from to Estimated trend values of India s Vegetables and Animal fats imports in from to

5 Contd.. Table No. Title 4.17 Estimated trend values of India s Cereal preparation imports from to 4.18 Estimated trend values of India s Milk and Cream imports from to 4.19 Estimated trend values of India s Cashew nuts imports from to 4.20 Estimated trend values of India s Fruits and nuts excluding cashew nuts imports from to 4.21 Estimated trend values of India s Cotton (raw & waste) imports from to 4.22 Estimated trend values of India s Wood and wood products imports from to 4.23 Estimated trend values of India s Vegetable oils (edible) imports from to 4.24 Estimated trend values of India s sugar imports from to 4.25 Share of agricultural and non-agricultural exports in total exports in India 4.26 Composition of Indian agricultural exports, to 4.27 Share of agricultural and non-agricultural imports in total imports in India 4.28 Composition of Indian agricultural import, to 4.29 Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage of Agricultural Commodities

6 LIST OF FIGURES Figure No Title Estimated trend values of India s Pulses exports from to Estimated trend values of India s Tea exports from to Estimated trend values of India s Coffee exports from to Estimated trend values of India s Cashew exports from to Estimated trend values of India s Groundnut exports from to Estimated trend values of India s Cotton exports from to Estimated trend values of India s Tobacco exports from to Estimated trend values of India s Fruits and vegetables exports from to Estimated trend values of India s Sugar exports from to Estimated trend values of India s Marine products exports from to Estimated trend values of India s Basmati rice exports from to Estimated trend values of India s spices exports from to Estimated trend values of India s Pulses imports from to Estimated trend values of India s Wheat imports from to Estimated trend values of India s Rice imports from to Estimated trend values of India s Vegetables and animal fats imports from to Estimated trend values of India s Cereal preparation imports from to Estimated trend values of India s Milk and cream imports from to Estimated trend values of India s Cashewnuts imports from to Estimated trend values of India s Fruits and nuts excluding cashewnuts imports from to Estimated trend values of India s Cotton (raw and waste) imports from to Estimated trend values of India s Wood and wood products imports from to Estimated trend values of India s Vegetable oil (edible) imports from to Estimated trend values of India s Sugar imports from to

7 INTRODUCTION India is predominantly an agricultural economy which contributes at about 14.7 per cent of GDP and 2/3 rd of countries population. Agriculture exports contributing about 13 per cent of total export earning not only brings in valuable foreign exchange but also benefits a large number of people involved in the production processing and exports of products. The share of agricultural exports in total Indian exports was 18.7 per cent in , which went up to a maximum of 20.4 per cent in and subsequently declined to 13.2 per cent in Now the share of agriculture exports in total exports is per cent in 2007 even though India s share in world s total exports remained very low between 0.5 per cent to 0.7 per cent. Its share in world agriculture exports stood around 10.2 per cent to 2.2 per cent. Thus, despite the fact that the share of agriculture exports showing a downward trend, agriculture is still backbone of India s exports. The performance of agriculture after integration with the world markets is linked to the success of exports. In its bid to increase overall exports, the government of India has decided to achieve this objective by giving a push to production and export of agricultural commodities. Agriculture has been a source of foreign exchange for India in the past. Most of the export earnings of agriculture came from the conventional items such as tea, cashew and spices. The major agriculture exports of India in their order of importance are fish and fish preparation, tea, oilcakes, rice, spices, cashew, sugar, fruits and vegetables, meat and meat preparation, tobacco, coffee, raw cotton etc., Prior to trade liberalization policies adopted by government during early 1990 s, most of the agriculture exports were subjected to control of one kind or other. From the beginning the agriculture policy aimed primarily at achieving self sufficiency on agricultural exports. It seems that India has three different strategies for agriculture exports. For traditional commodities like tea, coffee, tobacco, spices the trade regimes has been relatively open. The cereals sector remained largely insulated from world markets due to the fears of food security. As per the agricultural policy resolution 1993, India has natural comparative advantage in its exports on account of lower imports needs of inputs, low cost of production, existence of diverse agroclimatic conditions etc., as exports growth is determined by both domestic supply and external demand factors, identification of crucial factors is important for framing and successful implementation of policy measures. The major areas of concern for agriculture exports promotion efforts are, increase in productivity, quality awareness, value addition, better infrastructure, product diversification and marketing. With the emergence of WTO regime agriculture exports from India have plenty of opportunities and at the same time certain threats. A well defined strategy is needed to top the potential and protect the traditional base of agricultural exports from India in the new trade environment. India's share in the world agricultural exports is very low in many items. Until the beginning of the early seventies India has been an importer of a number of agricultural commodities. With the exception of a few commodities like rice, cotton, tea, coffee, oilseeds, oil cakes, tobacco and spices, the share of agricultural export of India in total world trade was very insignificant. The share is particularly low in the world trade of fish, meat, chicken, vegetables and fruits. India has made substantial strides in the total world production of many commodities. However, its share in the export market is relatively very small. Nevertheless, the country has made phenomenal efforts in enhancing the agricultural exports. Compositional changes in India's export basket have been taking place over the years. While the share of primary products in India's exports fell over the years from 16 per cent in , in (April-November) it regained the share of 16 per cent mainly due to the export of agricultural items like rice and guar gum meal. Tea, coffee, cashews, spices, etc have been overtaken by new and more dynamic sectors like rice and maize, cotton, meat, guar gum and with the biggest change being registered in cotton. India has emerged as the world's largest exporter of rice, replacing Thailand and Vietnam and the country is also the biggest exporter of buffalo meat beating traditionally strong countries such as Brazil, Australia and the US. Status of Agriculture Exports: In case of share of agricultural exports in GDP originated from agriculture sector the rise was from 2.4 per cent in to 6.1 per cent in Later in next two years there was a decline to 5.7 per cent, thereafter, it gradually increased from 6.4 per cent in to 14 per cent in

8 The share of non-agricultural commodities export in national GDP increased from 3.3 per cent in , to 16.9 per cent in , whereas the agricultural export increased to 1.9 per cent during 18 years from to Presently Indian agriculture sector contributes nearly 14.7 per cent to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The share of Indian agricultural exports in the total exports was 17.9 per cent in , which has increased by nearly 3 per cent by the year , there after the share was continuously declining and it reduced to 9.9 per cent in Between the year and , there was an increase of 2.3 per cent. With a fall in to 10.2 per cent it has seen a growth of 0.4 per cent in However, the share of agricultural exports in India s overall exports has been declining from 17.9 percent in to 10.5 percent in Contribution of Indian agricultural export to the total export of India in stood at 10.5 per cent. There is an increase in the volume of agricultural export from million USD in to million USD in The slow rise in agricultural export calls for the change in strategic approach of Indian agriculture in a big way to achieve higher levels of production in crops in which India has comparative advantage and generate surpluses for exports. The government s commitment towards agriculture is seen from the ambitious four per cent growth target set under the Eleventh Plan. Agricultural exports have increased more than ten fold from $3.5 billion in to $37.1 billion in. This share is more than the share that India has in global merchandise exports. The share of agricultural exports in total exports increased from per cent to per cent registering a growth of nearly 55 per cent in over Status of Agriculture Imports: Agri-imports constitute only a small proportion of the country s total imports. During the period to , agri-imports have been in the range of 4 to 7 per cent of the total imports of the country. In recent years, edible oil has become the single largest agri import accounting for more than 50 per cent of the value of total agri-imports. In , it accounted for as high as 70 per cent of total agri-imports. Another item, which has been accounting for around 10 per cent of total agri-imports, is raw cashew nut. Each of the other agricultural and allied products imported into the country - cereals, pulses, spices, sugar, milk and milk products, chicken meat etc. account for very small proportion of total agri - import, except in some climatically abnormal years warranting relatively larger import of a particular commodity - cereals (mostly wheat) in , pulses in and It is generally the policy that import duties should be low for those sensitive essential products where there is a large domestic shortfall in production. Pulses are a typical example, where there is zero import duty. High tariff walls were raised this year for many agricultural and allied products, such as rice, wheat, millets, sugar, milk powder, apple, chicken, edible oils etc. to ally the fears of large scale dumping of such products in Indian market in view of liberalization of import policy in respect of many such products. The EXIM Policy: The Export and Import Policy or the EXIM Policy, was a significant landmark in India s economic history. For the first time, conscious effort was made to dismantle various protectionist and regulatory policies and accelerate the country s transition towards a globally oriented economy. This Policy coincided with the 8 th Five Year Plan and has yielded impressive growth in exports. While India s total exports during were US$ billion, these increased to US$ 155 billion in , almost 2½ times of the figure four years ago. India s share in the global trade has gone up and the share of exports as percentage of GDP had also increased substantially. Keeping these factors in view, the EXIM Policies announced thereafter have sought to consolidate the gains of the previous Policy. They aim to further carry forward the process of liberalization with the result that we have achieved nearly 1.5 per cent share of world merchandise trade in totaling up to US$ 525 billion. In the current Foreign Trade Policy, two major objectives were outlined: (i) To double our percentage share of global merchandise trade within the next five years; and (ii) To act as an effective instrument of economic growth by giving a thrust to employment. Out of the above two, we have already achieved the first one and are on track to achieving the second objective i.e. we have already created 136 lakhs new jobs in the past four years. In the era of globalization and WTO regime many Asian countries have achieved such remarkable export-led growth that South Korea and Taiwan are likely to be considered as developed countries by WTO.

9 WTO is the largest body of world trade consisting of 153 member countries as on date and responsible for 96% of the world trade. It is necessary for any developing country to expand exports continuously because export growth ultimately results in creation of jobs, building up of infrastructure, economies of scale and added foreign exchange earnings. Today s world is economic in nature and increased exports give credibility to the standing of the country in overseas market. Exports, therefore, are of importance and considered a national priority by the Government of India. By accepting membership of the World Trade Organization (WTO), India has become a part of the global village. New trade blocks are emerging and new world order is getting established. Even regional trading arrangements (RTAs) are mushrooming and it is estimated by the WTO that by 2010 there would be close to 400 RTAs. Even India is negotiating bilateral agreements with various countries and regional groupings. A number of joint ventures are being signed for export promotion as well as better quality production for domestic market. The FDI inflows into the country from 1991 to June, 2008 stand at more than $ 89 billion. We have witnessed a major change in this area between the years and if one scans through the newspapers, one will find that economic news takes priority over political news. The area in which the imports are almost essential are defense requirements, crude oil, fertilizers, capital goods, industrial inputs like raw materials, components, consumables, spares, etc., import of samples, import of technology, import of drawing and designs, import of services etc. There are many vital areas where there is a need to import capital goods - new as well as used products - in order to upgrade our products and services. The Specific Objectives of the study are: 1. To study the trends in export and import of agriculture products. 2. To analyze the changes in the composition of export-import of agriculture products. 3. To study the trends in Revealed Comparative Advantage of agriculture products exported from India. 4. To suggest appropriate policy measures. Organization of the study: The entire study has been presented in seven chapters. In the first chapter given more importance and the current status of the present study was highlighted. The specific objectives of the study as well as limitations of the study have been indicated. Chapter II deals with the reviews of the relevant research studies connected with the objectives. Chapter III provides the main features of the study area and study out lines. The nature and sources from which relevant data have been collected and the various statistical tools and techniques employed in the study for evaluating the objectives were included. Chapter IV is devoted to the analysis of the data through a variety of tables into which relevant details have been compressed and summarized under appropriate heads and presented in the tables. Chapter V provides discussion on the casual relationship between certain variables and the outcome which they produced. Chapter VI briefs the summary of the main findings along with the policy implications that emerged from the findings of the study. Chapter VII, the final chapter list the references cited while undertaking the research. Scope of the study: Over the years Indian exports have noticed wide diversity in its share and the countries also have exhibited changes. The share of primary products in India's exports over the years have undergone drastically. The composition in its basket will definitely have an impact on the total economic growth. Tea, coffee, cashews, spices, etc have been over taken by new and more dynamic sectors like rice and maize, cotton, meat, guar gum, and the like, with the biggest change being registered in cotton. India has emerged as the world's largest exporter of rice, replacing Thailand and Vietnam. The proposed study attempts to examine the structural changes in the export import composition and provide important policy implications.

10 REVIEW OF LITERATURE A review of concepts and empirical studies related to the present study would be helpful to project the current thinking on the subject matter study as well as to formulate relevant concepts and design of the study to draw conclusions. This would help the researcher to have better and precise understanding of the current research problem and would also facilitate to modify and improve the present study. This chapter briefly reviews the concepts, analytical tools and findings of the past studies, which are relevant for the present study. The reviews of the past studies were classified under the following headings To study the trends in export and import of agriculture products To analyze the changes in the composition of export-import of agriculture products To study the trends in Revealed Comparative Advantage of agriculture products exported from India To suggest appropriate policy measures To study the trends in export and import of agriculture products. Jalajakshi (1994) analyzed the trend of shrimps from India for the period 1966 to Exponential model of the type Y=abt was used to workout the trend. Shrimps export recorded a positive trend due to high demand in the importing countries. The negative trend observed for dried and canned Shrimps were attributed to declining demand in the importing countries and increased cost of production in India. Mamatha (1995) estimated the trends of production and export of selected spices for the period from to The spices considered were pepper, chilies, turmeric and ginger. She found that positive trends in respect to production and export of the selected spices were due to increased in domestic production and demand for these spices in the international market. The increased domestic production and export were attributed to several measures taken by the Spice Board such as improved methods of production, assistance for the export of spices by setting up of facilities for upgrading quality and technical advice on scientific post harvest operation and processing. Singh (1995) studied the trends in export of dairy products from India during The country exported the dairy products worth of 2.40 crores and 13 crores in , which shown the increasing trend in export. In the post-gatt era, WTO is going to create favorable export conditions and the dairy industry of the country has the opportunity to emerge as important player in international market. Sah (1998) examined the import of dairy products such as butter, cheese, baby food, skim milk and whole milk powder. He concluded that decreasing trend of these products was due to under Operation Flood phase-i, II and III. The creation of large co-operative milk production and marketing systems will greatly enhance infra- structure for dairy development. Ashalatha (2000) analyzed the trend of area, production, productivity and export of cashew kernel, cashew nut shell liquid, imports of raw cashew nuts and unit value of exports of cashew. The trend was studied in two periods, period-i covering to and period-ii covering to It was observed that the trend of area, production, productivity, kernel import, cashew nut shell liquid-unit value of exports were showing positive trend but the cashew nut shell liquid quantity exported showed negative trend and non-significant. Ananthi (2000) analyzed the trend of area, production, productivity and export of India s nonbasmati rice. The trend was calculated by sub dividing the study period into to as first period and and as second period. The area, production, productivity showed positive trends. For export the study period considered was to for basmati and nonbasmati rice. The trend was also positive and significant. Guledgudda et al (2002) studied the trend in world tea production and export. India s share in the world tea production has slipped gradually from per cent in 1961 to per cent in and further marginally come down to per cent in Whereas, its share in world tea

11 export has been similarly decreased gradually from per cent in to per cent in and further decreased to per cent in Sujatha et al (2003) in their study focused on present status of export. The total period was divided into two parts i.e., to (pre WTO) and 1995 to (post WTO) to know the effect of WTO on export of mangoes. Analysis of trend was estimated by compound growth rates. The method of index was used for pre and post WTO periods. They concluded that during the pre and post WTO periods, the export value index increased from and to and , respectively. Singh (2004) studied the trend of import of total milk (condense + dry + fresh) has reduced by 18.3 percent per year during and the reduction was more pronounced during Butter also achieved negative growth in its import value in which import decelerated from US$ thousands in 1981 to US$ 4071 thousands in Between 1981 and 1991, the import value of butter reduced by 39 per cent/year. However, between 1992 and 2001 the import of butter increased by 28 per cent per year. It was mainly due to deceleration in international prices of butter during that period and lifting of quantity restrictions on its import. Namasivayam and Paul (2004) estimated the trend in area, production and productivity of coconut in India. The entire analysis was done separately in three phases for the overall study period to was I phase, to was II phase, to was III phase. The trend in growth rate analysis revealed that the growth in area, production and productivity over the years were positive in the first two periods while in the third period productivity was negative. Shibu et al (2004) studied the trend analysis of cashew nuts in Kerala, using trend analysis based on index number and growth rates, which gave comparable results. A result revealed that growth rate in area was positive for entire period with stagnant production and declining productivity. Kumar (2004) in his study attributed the trends of exports growth of meat and poultry products. India had net exporter of meat products and its share in meat exports was gradually increasing especially after the liberalization process started in India s exports of animal products grew with 12 per cent growth rate during the 1990s. Among the exports of animal products, buffalo meat contributed the biggest share followed by dairy and poultry products. Poultry products observed the highest growth of 23 per cent. Dairy products were next with a trend growth of 19 per cent followed by buffalo meat with a growth rate of 13 per cent during to Growth rate of other products were insignificant while sheep and goat meat observed 5 per cent negative growth rate To analyze the changes in the composition of export-import of agriculture products Prakash et al (1995) examined the impact of new economic policy on agricultural exports. They looked at the current trends in foreign trade of India, contribution of agricultural exports in total exports, the share of India in the global production and export of agricultural commodities, the changing compositions of major exportable commodities over time, major steps of liberalization in agricultural export import policy, to identify the newly emerging agricultural commodities having vast potential for steady exports and to suggest a strategy for realizing full export potential of agricultural commodities. Kehar and Inder (2003) studied the prospects of agricultural exports of India using composite index approach. The study is based on the analysis time series data of export value and export quantum from 1980 to The study reveals that coffee green, coffee extract, groundnuts, shelled milled paddy, rice, pepper, potatoes have bright prospects, bananas, beef and veal, buffalo meat, cake of rape seed, cotton waste, ghee from cow milk, hen eggs, infant food, lentils, oil of castor beans, oranges, sesame seed, tobacco leaves and walnuts shelled have also been visualized to have positive prospects. Thomos and Shiekh (2011) studied the growth performance of India s agricultural exports from to , using compound annual growth rate and percentage share in total export of India as well as Gross Domestic Product. An in depth composition and structure analysis of the agricultural export is undertaken. They also examined the changing dynamics of the contribution of individual group of commodities in the basket of agricultural export. Even though, there is an increase in the absolute quantum of agricultural exports, there is consistent decline in the percentage share of primary products in total export from 17.9 per cent to 10 per cent during the study period. This is an

12 indicator of slow rise in agricultural export in comparison to national exports. There is considerable increase in the agricultural export since the onset of globalization and liberalization. The ratio of Indian agricultural export to that of non-agricultural export has increased during the study period. Growth of percentage share of each of the commodity groups indicates improvement for all except tea and coffee which has negative growth. Indian agriculture sector as well as world agriculture are in the midst of tumultuous changes brought about by a number of internal and external factors. Shameek and Sahana (2012) studied an Overview of India Export Performance: Trends and Drivers. Exports have played an increasingly important role in India s economic growth in the last two decades. They analyzed the performance of India s exports and the various economic factors which have contributed to its growth. Since manufactured exports comprise a significant share of India s aggregate (merchandise) exports, the paper also provides an overview of the export performance of three important commodities; namely, gems and jewelry, cotton and electronic goods and concludes with key policy changes which could have a bearing on the current trends seen in these sectors. Rajkumar and Varsha (2013) studied Growth and Performance of India s Agriculture Exports from to , and the contribution of percentage share in total export of India as well as Gross Domestic Product by using secondary sources of data collection. They also examined the changing behavior of the contribution of individual group of commodities in the basket of total agricultural export. It includes the major agriculture product/crops that contribute to the maximum share in the total agriculture export in different periods ( ). Rajesh and Pilaania (2008) studied An Exploratory Study of Indian Foreign Trade. Indian economy and foreign trade are on a growth trajectory. Indian exports have come a long way in value terms from the time of gaining independence in The total value of India s merchandise exports increased from US $ 1.3 billion in to US $ 63.8 billion in with a compound rate of 7.6 per cent. Trade growth has picked up post liberalization of The composition of trade is now dominated by manufactured goods and services. India services exports share in global exports is more than double of that of Indian manufacturing exports. East Asian countries, particularly China have become a major trading block. There is huge untapped potential for Indian foreign trade in years to come To study the trends in Revealed Comparative Advantage of agriculture products exported from India Yeats and Alexander (1997) studied the possible distortions in trade patterns on account of discriminatory trade barriers that are characteristic of the RTAs. They used the index of revealed comparative advantage in conjunction with the changes in the regional orientation of exports to identify any apparent inefficiency in trade patterns for the Mercosur group of countries. Richardson and Zhang (1999) used the Balassa index of RCA for the U.S to analyze the patterns of variation across time, sectors and regions. They sound the patterns to differ across different parts of the world, over time as also for different levels of aggregation of the export data. Differentials are accounted for by factors like geographical proximity of trading partners and per capita income with the extent of influence of these factors varying over time and across sectors/sub sectors. Yue and Changjun (2001) used the RCA index to demonstrate the fact that China has changed its export pattern to coincide with its comparative advantage and that there are distinct differences in export patterns between the coastal regions and the interiors in China. Bender et al (2002) examined the structural performance and shift of exports and revealed comparative advantage of the East Asian and Latin American regions over the period It examines, if there is a relation between changes in export pattern among different regions and shifts in comparative advantage between regions. Burange and Sheetal (2008) evaluated the structure of comparative advantage in India and the change in the scene over a 10-year period from 1996 to India enjoys a comparative advantage in the exports of goods for which standard technology is required for the production is shifting to developing economies like India as shown by absence of Revealed Comparative Advantage in imports of these goods. Shinoj and Mathur (2008) studied the changes in revealed comparative advantage status of India s major agricultural exports vis-a-vis other Asian Players during the post reforms period. It has been found that in exports of certain commodities like cashew and oil meals, India has been able to

13 maintain its comparative advantage, but several others like tea, coffee, spices, marine products, etc., have been negatively affected. India has been found losing out its comparative in export of some of the agricultural commodities to the Asian competitors during the period after economic reforms. Nikita et al (2009) analyzed the export performance and have studied the revealed comparative advantage of finfish export from India for the period 2001 to The finfish exports from India have not revealed any comparative advantage among the total marine products export in the period of study. The paper has suggested reviewing of the policy of finfish export, with a shift in emphasis to export of only high-value finfish and value added low-value finfish. Kanaka and Chinadurai (2012) studied the changes in comparative advantage status of India s major agricultural exports during the post reforms period ( to ). India had enjoyed a comparative advantage in tea exports but had depicted a declining trend over the years. A similar pattern had been observed in coffee exports also, where India had been found losing its comparative advantage to other world coffee exporters. An unstable pattern of comparative advantage had been observed in the case of rice exports with intermittent ups and downs in the status. A gradual decline in India s comparative advantage had been depicted for exports of sugar and cashew also. As opposed to other commodities, India had strengthened its position in the global markets in exports of Groundnut. But as far as the exports of fresh fruits and fresh vegetables are concerned, India cannot boast to have a comparative advantage. India has been found losing out its comparative advantage in export of some of the agricultural commodities to world during the period after economic reforms To suggest appropriate policy measures Kathuria (1996) studied the India s import substituting industrialization strategy, which was accompanied by a heaver dose of export pessimism, which was reinforced by the poor export performance in the early years of planned development. Effective protection rates for domestic production were much higher for export. Domestic protection was also protected by severe QRs on import. Export promotion policies took on export growth rate in the new Uruguay Round, especially in 1980s, and were rewarded by significant increase in the export growth rate in the second half of the decade. Policies were such that export incentives relied primarily on product-specific rebates and imports entitlement licenses, which were marketable at a premium. Phillips (1997) studied the recent trends in the Asian dairy markets, which included the effects of trade policy, population and income on the demand for milk products and factors that are likely to put constraints on market growth. The prospects for market development in Japan, Taiwan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, China, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Indonesia and India were briefly reviewed. Vyasulu (1997) justified a discussion of agricultural developments in Indian states only from the start of the New Economic Policy (NEP), launched in July The focus was on external trade, if the Government encourages the export of agro industrial products rather than agricultural exports total quantity, then several constraints may arise: (1) lack of expertise in processing; (2) entree for the multinationals; (3) lack of existing links between agriculture and food processing. Dairy industries nationwide and sugar Cooperatives in Maharashtra state were cited, however, as "optimistic pictures". The paper finished by dealing with three questions: What is globalization? How is globalization different from foreign trade? Why do globalization and GATT go together? It argues that GATT, leading to food dependence on foreign powers, may not be in India's interests, but states that the outcomes of globalization were not inevitable. Sharma and Datta (1999) studied the impact of a reduction in domestic support; improvement in market access and reductions in export subsidies. The major trends in global production, trade and prices of milk products were reviewed and the competitiveness of the Indian dairy industry was highlighted. Kurien et al (2000) examined the impact of globalization on agriculture in poorer countries with particular reference to the WTO, the convention on biodiversity, and trade liberalization, which must focus on current techno-economic conditions of the dairy industry. The study examines the growth in milk production in India since 1971, the role of research and development in this and possible future directions of research to ensure increased productivity of Indian dairy livestock.

14 Kumar (2000) studied the trade policy reforms, which had been affected since The results of the study reviewed that the import licensing systems has been dismantled, all non-tariff barriers (NTBs) had been phased out from all treadles except consumer goods, the pick tariff rate has been brought down to maximum 50 per cent from up to 335 per cent. It also shows the progressive declining in average tariff rates applicable to imports conforming major reforms. The trade with south Asia on faster track than all trade India had unilaterally removed all quantitative restrictions on imports on around 2300 items from SAARC countries in Sharma (2001) studied the effect of exim policy on dairy sector like after the removal Quantitative Restrictions (QRs), tariff rates will be the only instrument for India's trade policy. The significant number of items which QRs had been dismantled in the new exim policy. It was belonging to the agricultural sector and small-scale industries, which constitute very big section of the Indian economy. Given their small size, they need more time and support to equip themselves in order to face the challenges of a QRs-free regime. Secondly, the developed countries, like USA and EU, were working on the principle that all barriers to their exports had to go. However, these countries were creating many non-tariff barriers for developing countries. If the USA and EU continue the subsidy for dairy sector at the present levels, then the Indian dairy farmers and processing industry would face a serious threat. Moreover, Indian tariff commitments for most of the dairy products in the Uruguay Round are very low. The government should identify the sensitive products and estimate the appropriate level of tariff rate and also use other non-tariff barriers like anti-dumping duties in accordance with the WTO provisions. The industry must have a close liaison with the standing group constituted by the government of India and give its feedback so that the government can take necessary actions. Suresh and Jayaprakash (2001) studied the last three decades, which shows that the Indian dairy sector has recorded a spectacular growth of more than 5 per cent per annum. By entering into a WTO agreement, which includes Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT), Sanitary and Phyto Sanitary (SPS) measures, and Codex Standards, it is almost imperative that India should produce products of international standards at internationally competitive prices to yield profit and to meet the growing competition as a result of globalization. Smita and Mathur (2001) looked into the structure and level of market access, domestic support, and export subsidies for dairy products and examine the implementation problems of those World Trade Organization provisions, which seek to reduce trade distortions in world dairy markets. The paper outlines emerging issues, which should be discussed in the future round of negotiations in the interest of the Indian dairy industry. Misra et al (2003) studied the increase in agricultural export after economic reforms were initiated. Aggregate agricultural export increased from US$ 3.2 billion in to US$ 6.86 in , but declined to US$ 5.5 billion in Thus, during the nineties agricultural exports increased at 8.96 per cent per annum as compared to only 2.43 per cent during the eighties. Appreciable increase in exports has come about mainly because of devaluation of the economy due to significant reduction in import duties. Chand (2005) studied the impact of trade policy on import and export of agricultural products. India initiated liberalization of its economy and trade with economic reforms in June 1991 as a part of these reforms India adjusted its exchange rate to market rate and relaxed restriction on agricultural exports. This created a favorable environment for agricultural exports. Since , agricultural exports started increasing in leaps and bounds. Exports earning doubled in three years between and Imports also increased from US$ 2 billion during to US$ 4.33 billion during Provisional figure for the year shows that agricultural export reached US$ 8 billion, which was about 30 percent higher than May et al (2008), examined the growth and patterns of India s trade from The objective is to contrast growth patterns of agriculture and non-agricultural trade and attempt to relate such differences to policy and to economic growth. They analyzed India s trade policies and the role they play in India s trade with its major trading partners. They also analyzed the importance of trade as a contributing factor to economic growth in India. They found that trade liberalization coincided with the increase in India s economic growth performance and led to a significant increase in the rate of growth of India s trade. They also found that trade liberalization led to significant changes in the pattern of India s trade growth. India experienced much higher growth in its trade with developing region and Asia-Pacific countries than it did with high income countries.

15 George et al (2009), studied India: Effects of Tariffs and Non-tariff Measures on U.S. Agricultural Exports. This report describes and analyzes policies and other factors that affect U.S. agricultural exports to India. They suggested that India s high agricultural tariffs are a significant impediment to U.S. agricultural exports and that certain Indian non-tariff measures (NTMs), including sanitary and phyto-sanitary measures, substantially limit or effectively prohibit certain U.S. agricultural products. The study provides an overview of Indian agricultural production, imports, and consumption during ; Indian tariffs and NTMs; the Indian food marketing and distribution system; and Indian government regulations relating to the agricultural market, including foreign direct investment and intellectual property rights policies. The study also provides economic modeling analysis of the effects of Indian tariffs and certain NTMs on U.S. agricultural exports. Vilas et al (2012) examined the growth performance and trade patterns of Indian agriculture during to Agriculture including allied activities, accounted for 14.5 per cent of GDP in On an average the percentage share of agricultural imports and exports to total national imports and exports was 4.76 per cent and per cent, respectively. The percentage share of principal agricultural products to total agricultural imports and exports was per cent and per cent respectively in The imports of agricultural products into the country mainly comprises of vegetable oil, pluses and wood and wood products, which accounts per cent of the total agricultural imports in terms of value in

16 METHODOLOGY This chapter deals with the description of the study area, nature and sources of data and various tools and techniques employed for analyzing the data. 3.1 Description of the study area 3.2 Nature and sources of data 3.3 Analytical tools and techniques employed 3.1. Description of the study area Peninsular India has a land mass of 32,00,483 sq km with 15,200 km land frontier. India lies to the North of the equator between to North latitude and to East longitudes. India has a varied temperature ranging between C and C. It receives rainfall ranging from 20 to 80 inches. India gets rainfall from both southwest and northeast monsoon. India s huge agriculture potential is embodied in its size and in its abundance and diverse nature resources, unlike most part of the world which have a cold and hostile winter and a relatively a small proportion of arable land. India is blessed with bounteous nature across vast fertile river plains, Indian cereal and agriculture crops provide another demonstration of her abundance, diversity and opportunity. The whole of India was taken into consideration at aggregate level so as to facilitate data compilation Data Collection Selection of commodities Major agricultural commodities/commodity groups were selected for the analysis, based on their respective shares in India s total agriculture exports and imports. They were; For export: pulse, tea, coffee, cashew, ground nut, cotton, tobacco, fruits and vegetables, sugar, marine products, basmati rice and spices. For imports: pulse, wheat, rice, cereal preparation, milk and cream, cashew nuts, fruits and nuts excluding cashew nuts, vegetable oil (edible oil), vegetable and animal fats, cotton (raw and waste) and wood and wood products Nature and sources of data The nature of data used for the study is entirely based on secondary source of data. The yearly data on export quantity, value and unit value were compiled from Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) official website Agriculture and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) and Annual Reports, DGCI & S, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, GoI, published journals and periodicals for a period of 20 years ( to ). It is proposed to make phases of changes in the export-import trade depending on the major EXIM policies taken up by the Government from time to time since Analytical tools and techniques employed To fulfill the specific objective of the study based on the nature and extent of availability of data, the following analytical tools and techniques will be adopted Trend Cyclic Decomposition Model (TCD) Tabular Analysis Revealed Comparative Advantage Trend and Cycles Decomposition Model The methodology used for analyzing India s agricultural trade growth is based on the Trend and Cycles Decomposition (TCD) Approach developed by Hodrick and Prescott (1997). Growth rates calculated from the raw data almost always include annual variability from number of factors including short term shocks like weather. The TCD approach allows us to remove or filter these fluctuations from the primary data revealing the underlying longer term trend. This approach captures the dynamics of growth in trade. It minimizes the effect of short-term shocks, cyclical variation and errors capturing the true trajectory of the trend.

17 The analysis of historical growth paths through the TCD methodology, however, permits examination of the growth in trade. In the TCD approach, the observed time series, y, are viewed as the sum of cyclical t components, c, and growth components, g, i.e. t t The procedure minimizes: The first term of the equation is the sum of the squared deviations which penalizes the cyclical component. The second term is a multiple of λ times the sum of the squares of the trend s component second differences. This second term penalizes variations in the growth of the trend component. The larger the value of λ, the higher is the penalty, and the smoother is the result. As λ approaches infinity, the solution approximates the growth in trade calculation of an ordinary least squares linear fit to the log of the data. The λ values are standardized, for annual data λ is 100, for quarterly data λ will be taken as 1600 and for daily data it is considered as Tabular Analysis The technique of tabular analysis was used to assess the percent change in the composition of export-import of agriculture products. The percentages were computed and compared to draw inferences Revealed Comparative Advantage Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) was first introduced by Bela Balassa (1965). It is an economist s tool that uses the trade pattern to identify the business sectors in which an economy has a comparative advantage, when comparing the country of interests trade profile with the world average. The objective of using RCA is to analyze a competitive advantage of each business section in the country of interest. The study uses information related to an export value. RCA had been transformed several times by Balassa (1986). The original RCA measures export performance by country and its industry or commodity. Its formula defined as a country s share of world exports of a commodity divided by its share of total world exports. The index for country i and commodity j is calculated as follows: Where, RCA ij = (X ij /X ik )/(X nj /X nk ) (1) X ij = Exports of country i of commodity j X ik = Exports of country i of a total agricultural commodities k X nj = Exports of a world n of commodity j, and X nk = Exports of a world n of a total agricultural commodities k In the present study, country i refers to India, commodity j refers to any of the selected agricultural commodities, set of commodities k refers to the total agricultural commodities and n refers to world. When RCA assumed the value greater than unity for a given country in a given commodity, the country is said to have a revealed comparative advantage in that commodity. However, RCA suffers from the problem of asymmetry as pure RCA is basically not comparable on both sides of unity. It the index ranged from zero to one, a country is said not to be specialized in a given sector and if the value of the index ranged from one to infinity, the country is said to be specialized. The index is made symmetric, following the methodology suggested by Dalum et al (1998) and the resultant index is called as Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA). Mathematically, it can be expressed by the following equation (2). RSCA = (RCA-1) / (RCA+1) (2) This measure ranges between -1 and +1 and is free from the problem of skewness. A commodity is said to have comparative advantage in its exports if the corresponding RSCA value is positive and vice versa. In the present study, the RSCA was used to look into the comparative advantage of the selected commodities.

18 RESULTS Keeping in view the objectives, the data pertinent to the present study was collected and elicited from various sources and analyzed using appropriate techniques. The results of the present study are presented as below keeping in view the objectives of the study. 4.1 Trends in export and import of agricultural products. 4.2 Changes in the composition of export-import of agricultural products. 4.3 Trends in Revealed Comparative Advantage of agricultural products exported from India. 4.4 To suggest appropriate policy measures. 4.1 Trends in export and import of agricultural products. The annual time series data of export of value of major agricultural commodities exported from India was subjected to Trend and Cycles Decomposition or Hodrick and Prescott Filtration. The outcomes of analysis are presented here below Trends in export of agriculture products. The trend and cycles decomposition method was employed to compute trends and cyclic variation in order to ascertain the trend values and variations for major agriculture commodities like pulse, tea, coffee, cashew, ground nut, cotton, tobacco, fruits an vegetables, sugar, marine products, basmati rice and spices from India for to From the Table 4.1 and Fig. 1, it could be seen that, there is an increasing trend in the export of pulse. The trend and cycles decomposition analysis indicates that during to the trend of pulse exports was ranging from crores to crores. In trend value of pulse export was at its peak period i.e crores. There after, there was marginal decline in the export of pulses from crores in to crores in. The number of cycles observed in pulses export found to be five during the study period. Trend values and cyclic variations for export value of tea were analyzed and the results were presented in the Table 4.2 and Fig. 2. The export of tea from India showed an increasing trend value over the years. During the trend in tea export was crores and it increased to crores in The results also showed that, six cycles were observed for tea export from India. The results of trend and cycles decomposition analysis for coffee export from India are presented in the Table 4.3 and are depicted in Fig. 3. The coffee export is increasing steadily. The trend value for coffee export was crores in and it increased to crores in The number of cycles observed in coffee export found to be five during the study period. The export of cashew from India showed an increasing trend during the study period. The results shown in the Table 4.4 and Fig. 4 observed that, in the trend was crores and it increased to crores in The cashew export showed six cycles during the study period. The ground nut export showed an increase in the trend during the study period. The trend for ground nut export was crores in and it increase to crores in There were four cycles were observed in the groundnut export from India over a period of time as indicated in the Table 4.5 and depicted in Fig. 5. The trend values for cotton exports from India are presented in Table 4.6 and Fig. 6 represents the results for cotton export value. The results observed that, in the cotton export was crores, after that the cotton exports showed slight decline in the trend till i.e. from crores to crores. From to there was marginal increase in the cotton export and it showed a rapid increase in the cotton exports trend from crores in and arrived at crores in During the study period five cycles were found in the export of cotton from India. Trend values for tobacco exports from India are computed and are presented in the Table 4.7 and are depicted in Fig. 7. The results found an increasing trend over the study period. The trend for tobacco export during was crores, and the export of tobacco increased to crores in Per cent cyclic variation showed seven cycles for tobacco export from India over a period of years.

19 Table 4.1: Estimated trend values of India s Pulses exports from to Year Actual values ( in crores) Trend values ( in crores) % cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Number of Cycles 5

20 The results of trend and cycles decomposition analysis for fruits and vegetable exported from India are presented in the Table 4.8 and depicted in Fig. 8. The fruits and vegetables exports showed a negative trend during i.e crores. Thereafter the results observed a steady growth in the trends for fruits and vegetables export during the study period i.e. during , the fruits and vegetable export was 5.60 crores and it increased to crores in The results found five cycles for fruits and vegetables export from India during the study period. The results showed that, there was a marginal increasing trend in the sugar exports from India from to. During the trend for sugar export was crores and increased to crores in. There was four cycles were observed for sugar exports during the study period as presented in the Table 4.9 and depicted in Fig. 9. The trends values and cyclic variations for marine products export computed using trend and cycles decomposition model and results are presented in Table 4.10 and depicted in Fig. 10. The growth in the trends of export of marine products was indicated that, there was an increasing trend in the export of marine products during the study period i.e. from to Marine products export trend was crores in and it increased to crores in with marginal growth in the trends for export of marine products from India during the study period. There were eight cycles were observed during the study period for marine product export from India. The basmati rice exports from India observed that, there was an increasing trend over a period of time. The basmati rice export was crores in and basmati rice export increased to crores during. The results found six cycles for export of marine products from India and the number of cycles found are six during the study period by observing the results presented in Table 4.11 and depicted in Fig. 11. The trend and cycles decomposition computed the trend values and cyclic variation for spice export from India and the results are presented in the table 4.12 and are depicted in Fig. 12. The spice exports showed an increasing trend from crores in to crores during The results showed five cycles during the study period. Overall, the trends value of India s export of agricultural commodities indicating that, there was an increasing trend in almost all selected agricultural commodities except for pulses which showed a decreasing trend Trends in import of agricultural products. In order to ascertain the trend in import of major agricultural commodities by India total twelve commodities were selected for the study purpose, the data relating to the import of commodities like pulses, wheat, rice, vegetable and animal fats, cereal preparation, milk and cream, cashew nuts, fruits and nuts excluding cashew, cotton (raw and waste), wood and wood products, vegetable oil (edible oil) and sugar from to was subjected to the trend and cycles decomposition method. The trend values for pulses import by India are presented in Table 4.13 and are depicted in Fig. 13. It could be seen that, there is an increasing trend was observed in the pulses import by India. During the trend value of pulses import was crores and with marginal growth in the import of pulses increased to crores in Thereafter the pulses import showed a fast growth in trend from crores in to 8675 crores. Cyclic variation observed five cycles for pulses import by India during the study period. The trend value for wheat was crores in The results showed a steady increase in the wheat imports by India from to i.e crores to crores. Thereafter the wheat imports indicated an increase in the trend from crores in to crores in the number of cycles found were four for imports of wheat as presented in Table 4.14 and depicted in Fig. 14. Trend values for rice imports by India are presented in Table 4.15 and depicted in Fig. 15. Results indicates that, the trends for rice imports was crores in then year after the rice import showed a declining growth over a period of time. The rice imports decreased from crores in to 0.51 crores till Rice imports showed a slight increase from to i.e. from 0.52 crores to 1.16 crores, respectively. The cyclic variation observed four cycles during the study period. In order to ascertain the trends over a period of time for import of vegetable and animal fats the data was subjected to trend and cycles decomposition model and the results are presented in the

21 Table 4.16 and Fig. 16. Results indicated that, the vegetable and animal fats showed an increasing trend value i.e crores in to crores in The number of cycles observed was two for imports of vegetables and animals fats during the study period. The Table 4.17 and Fig. 17 present the trend values for import of cereal preparation. It could be seen that, there is decrease in the trend for import of cereal preparation till , i.e. from crores in to crores during Thereafter the cereal preparation imports showed an increasing trend till i.e. from crores to crores. The results found five cycles for import of cereal preparation by India during the study period. The trend values for milk and cream imports are presented in the Table 4.18 and Fig. 18. The results showed that, the trend for milk and cream during was crores and it declined from i.e crores to crores till During the trend for import of milk and cream was crores, and milk and cream imports increased crores in The number of cycles observed were five during the study period for imports of milk and cream by India. The trend and cycles decomposition employed to compute the trend for imports of cashew nuts by India from to and are presented in Table 4.19 and depicted in the Fig 19. The results revealed that, the trend for cashew nuts was increased from crores in to crores during The cashew nut imports showed five cycles during the study period. The trends and cycles decomposition analysis indicates that, the imports of fruits and nuts excluding cashew nuts showed an increasing trend. In , the trend for fruits and nuts excluding cashew nuts import was crores and it increased to crores in The cycles observed for import of fruits and nuts excluding cashew nuts were found to be seven during the study period as presented in Table 4.20 and are depicted in Fig. 20. The trend values for cotton (raw and waste) imports by India are presented in Table 4.21 and are depicted in Fig. 21. The results indicated that, there was a steep increase in the import of cotton (raw and waste) from to i.e. from crores to 1137 crores there after, the trend for cotton (raw and waste) import declined till and arrived at crores. The results shoed that five cycles were found for import of cotton (raw and waste) during the study period. The trend value for wood and wood products imports by India are presented in Table 4.22 and are depicted in Fig. 22. It is evident from the table that wood and wood products imports showed an increasing trend during the study period. The trend for wood and wood products during was crores and it increased to crores in The cyclic variation observed six cycles for import of wood and wood products during the study period. The trends were obtained for vegetable oil (Edible oil) from to and the results were represented in the Table 4.23 and Fig. 23. The vegetable oil (Edible oil) import was negative in i.e crores and it increased to crores during From onwards the import of vegetable oil (edible oil) showed a rapid increasing trend i.e. from crores to crores. The import of vegetable oil (edible oil) found three cycles during the study period. The trends were computed for sugar imports and are presented in Table 4.24 and depicted in Fig. 24. The results showed a marginal increase in sugar imports was observed from to i.e. from crores to crores. From the sugar import observed a declining trend from crores and arrived at crores during Import of sugar into the country ranging between crores during to crores in with showing an increasing trend. The number of cycles observed in import of sugar during the study period was four. Over all, India showed an increasing trend in majority of agricultural commodities imports except wheat and rice, where the imports is showing a decreasing trend over a period of time. 4.2 Changes in the composition of export-import of agricultural products An analysis of the composition of agricultural export and imports for India from to, the percentage share of contribution of total agricultural exports to the total national exports and compound annual growth rates was calculated. Also for the major commodities which includes the percentage share of each of these commodities in the total agricultural export in the total export of India was computed.

22 Table 4.2: Estimated trend values of India s Tea exports from to Year Actual values ( in crores) Trend values ( in crores) % cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Number of Cycles 6

23 Fig. 1. Estimated trend values of India s Pulses exports from to Fig. 2. Estimated trend values of India s Tea exports from to

24 Table 4.3: Estimated trend values of India s Coffee exports from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % - Number of cycles 5 Table 4.4: Estimated trend values of India s Cashew exports from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % - Number of cycles 6

25 Fig. 3. Estimated trend values of India s Coffee exports from to Fig. 4. Estimated trend values of India s Cashew exports from to

26 Table 4.5: Estimated trend values of India s Ground nut exports from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Number of cycles 4 Table 4.6: Estimated trend values of India s Cotton exports from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % - Number of cycles 5

27 Fig. 5. Estimated trend values of India s Groundnut exports from to Fig. 6. Estimated trend values of India s Cotton exports from to

28 Table 4.7: Estimated trend values of India s Tobacco exports from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Table 4.8: Estimated trend values of India s fruits and vegetables exports from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % - Number of cycles 5

29 Fig. 7. Estimated trend values of India s Tobacco exports from to Fig. 8. Estimated trend values of India s Fruits and vegetables exports from to

30 Table 4.9: Estimated trend values of India s Sugar exports from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Number of cycles 4 Table 4.10: Estimated trend values of India s Marine products exports from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Number of cycles 8

31 Fig. 9. Estimated trend values of India s Sugar exports from to Fig. 10. Estimated trend values of India s Marine products exports from to

32 Table 4.11: Estimated trend values of India s Basmati rice exports from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Number of cycles 6 Table 4.12: Estimated trend values of India s Spices exports from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Number of cycles 5

33 Fig. 11. Estimated trend values of India s Basmati rice exports from to Fig. 12. Estimated trend values of India s spices exports from to

34 Table 4.13: Estimated trend values of India s Pulses imports from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Number of cycles 5 Table 4.14: Estimated trend values of India s Wheat imports from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Number of cycles 4

35 Fig. 13. Estimated trend values of India s Pulses imports from to Fig. 14. Estimated trend values of India s Wheat imports from to

36 Table 4.15: Estimated trend values of India s Rice imports from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Number of cycles 4 Table 4.16: Estimated trend values of India s Vegetables and Animal fats imports in from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Number of cycles 2

37 Fig. 15. Estimated trend values of India s Rice imports from to Fig. 16. Estimated trend values of India s Vegetables and animal fats imports from to

38 Table 4.17: Estimated trend values of India s Cereal preparation imports from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Number of cycles 5 Table 4.18: Estimated trend values of India s Milk and Cream imports from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % - Number of cycles 5

39 Fig. 17. Estimated trend values of India s Cereal preparation imports from to Fig. 18. Estimated trend values of India s Milk and cream imports from to

40 Table 4.19: Estimated trend values of India s Cashew nuts imports from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % - Number of cycles 5 Table 4.20: Estimated trend values of India s Fruits and nuts excluding cashew nuts imports from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % - Number of cycles 7

41 Fig. 19. Estimated trend values of India s Cashewnuts imports from to Fig. 20. Estimated trend values of India s Fruits and nuts excluding cashewnuts imports from to

42 Table 4.21: Estimated trend values of India s Cotton (raw & waste) imports from to Year Actual values ( in crores) Trend values ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Number of cycles 5 Table 4.22: Estimated trend values of India s Wood and wood products imports from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Number of cycles 6

43 Fig. 21. Estimated trend values of India s Cotton (raw and waste) imports from to Fig. 22. Estimated trend values of India s Wood and wood products imports from to

44 Table 4.23: Estimated trend values of India s Vegetable oils (edible) imports from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Number of cycles 3 Table 4.24: Estimated trend values of India s sugar imports from to Year Actual values Trend values ( in crores) ( in crores) % Cyclic variation % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Number of cycles 4

45 Fig. 23. Estimated trend values of India s Vegetable oil (edible) imports from to Fig. 24. Estimated trend values of India s Sugar imports from to