Bilateral Agricultural Trade between India and Pakistan: Trend, Compositions and Future Directions
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1 National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (NCAP) Bilateral Agricultural Trade between India and Pakistan: Trend, Compositions and Future Directions Prof Ramesh Chand Director and Dr. Raka Saxena Senior Scientist LOGO
2 Introduction Agricultural trade constitutes the major chunk of trade between India and Pakistan In 1996, India accorded Most Favored Nation(MFN) to Pakistan; Pakistan not yet given the MFN status to India There have been disruption in normal trade: India stopped trade via air and land routes between 2001 and 2004 The cross border trade was stopped in Both countries part of South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) which came into effect on ; the trade governed under the SAFTA agreement
3 Contents Trend and composition of bilateral agricultural trade Emerging and loosing commodities Regional orientation Trade intensity and complementarity indices Trade policy of India and Pakistan Way forward
4 `..WHAT HAS BEEN THE TREND AND COMPOSITION OF AGRICULTURAL TRADE BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN?
5 India s Trade (all commodities) with Pakistan (US $ million) ,663 1, ,297 1, ,026 1,070 1, Exports Imports Net trade Source: Department of Commerce, Government of India
6 India s Agricultural Trade with Pakistan (US $ million) BEFORE SAFTA AFTER SAFTA Agricultural Exports to Pakistan Agricultural imports from pakistan Net trade Source: Department of Commerce, Government of India
7 Broad Composition of India s exports to Pakistan - agricultural and non-agricultural (US $ million) Agri share high, rising Agricultural Exports to Pakistan Non Agri exports to Pakistan Source: Department of Commerce, Government of India
8 Share of agriculture in Pakistan Imports from India %
9 Composition of India s imports from Pakistan: agricultural and non-agricultural US $ million) Agri share falling Agricultural imports from pakistan Non Agri imports from Pakistan Source: Department of Commerce, Government of India
10 Share of Agri in India s Import from Pakistan
11 Major agro commodities exported to Pakistan (US 000 $) Raw cotton and vegetables emerged and dominates TE 1998/99 TE 2001/02 TE 2004/05 TE 2007/08 TE 2010/11 TE 2012/13 Edible Vegetables Coffee Tea Cotton Sugar Cereals oilseeds fruits Meat Source: Department of Commerce, Government of India
12 Share of major commodities in agricultural exports to Pakistan (%) Commodity/ commodity groups Dairy Products Vegetables Coffee, Tea etc Fruits Cereals Oilseeds Sugar Cotton Others Source: Department of Commerce, Government of India
13 Trends in exports of major commodities (US 000 $) Edible Vegetables Beverage and Spices TE 1998/99 TE 2001/02 TE 2004/05 TE 2007/08 TE 2010/11 TE 2012/ TE 1998/99 TE 2001/02 TE 2004/05 TE 2007/08 TE 2010/11 TE 2012/13 Pulses Tomatoes Onion Other Fresh Vegetables Tea PEPPER SEEDS OF CORIANDER CARDAMOMS GINGER Cotton Cereals TE 1998/99 TE 2001/02 TE 2004/05 TE 2007/08 TE 2010/11 TE 2012/ TE 1998/99 TE 2001/02 TE 2004/05 TE 2007/08 TE 2010/11 TE 2012/13 COTTON, NOT CARDED OR COMBED COTN YRN WOVN FBRCS RICE GRAIN SORGHUM BUCKWHEAT MAIZE (CORN) Source: Department of Commerce, Government of India
14 Trends in exports of major commodities (US 000 $) Oilseeds Sugar TE 1998/99 TE 2001/02 TE 2004/05 TE 2007/08 TE 2010/11 TE 2012/ PLNTS AND PRTS OF PLNTS GROUND-NUTS SEEDS FOR SOWING SUNFLOWER 0 TE 1998/99 TE 2001/02 TE 2004/05 TE 2007/08 TE 2010/11 TE 2012/ MEAT OF BOVINE ANIMALS TE 1998/99 TE 2001/02 TE 2004/05 TE 2007/08 TE 2010/11 TE 2012/13 Source: Department of Commerce, Government of India
15 Major commodities imported from Pakistan by India (US $ million) Fruits and cotton. Sugar imports banished TE 1998/99 TE 2001/02 TE 2004/05 TE 2007/08 TE 2010/11 TE 2012/13 Edible vegetables Edible Fruits Coffee Tea Oilseeds Cotton Sugar Wool Hides and Skin Source: Department of Commerce, Government of India
16 `..HOW DIVERSIFIED ARE THE INDIAN EXPORTS IN TERMS OF COVERAGE OF COMMODITIES AND FOREIGN MARKETS?
17 Diversification Index (Gini-Hirschman Coefficient) Commodity and Geographical concentration indices were calculated by Gini-Hirschman Coefficient Formula Explanation Commodity Concentration/ diversification C xt = (X it /X t ) 2 X it is the value of exports of the commodity i in the year t. X t is the total agricultural exports in the year t. C xt is the diversification coefficient Geographical Concentration/ diversification G xt = (X it /X t ) 2 X it is the value of exports of the export destination i in the year t. X t is the total agricultural exports in the year t. G xt is the diversification coefficient
18 Commodity diversification of India s Agri Exports to World
19 `HOW MUCH IS INTENSITY OF INDO PAK AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS W. R. TO TOTAL AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FROM INDIA?
20 Trade Intensity Index s is the Source d is the destination TII = sd X sd / sw X sw wd X wd / wy X wy X is the exports w is the world The numerator is the export share of the source region to the destination, the denominator is the export share of the world to the destination. Trade Intensity The statistic tells us whether or not a region exports more (as a percentage) to a given destination than the world does on average to that destination
21 Trade intensity index for Indian export to Pakistan tea pulses cotton Source: International Trade Centre
22 `..WHAT HAS BEEN THE GROWTH IN BILATERAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND WHICH COMMODITIES ARE GAINING MOMEMTUM?
23 Growth in India s agricultural exports to Pakistan Edible Vegetables Coffee Tea Cotton Sugar Cereals oilseeds Fruits meat CAGR(1996/97 to 2004/05) CAGR(2004/05 to 2012/13)
24 Growth in agricultural imports from Pakistan Edible vegetables Edible Fruits Coffee Tea Oilseeds Cotton Sugar Wool Hides and Skin CAGR(1996/97 to 2004/05) CAGR(2004/05 to 2012/13)
25 Emerging and losing commodities in agricultural exports to Pakistan Sugar Vegetables Fruits Losing Commodities Emerging Commodities Tea and spices Cereals Cotton Oilseeds
26 Emerging and losing commodities in agricultural imports from Pakistan Vegetables Fruits Losing Commodities Emerging Commodities Oilseeds Cotton Hides and Skins
27 Share of Indo Pak Agri Trade in Total Agri Trade of Pakistan %
28 Share of Indo-Pak Agri Trade in India s total Agri Trade %
29 `..WHAT HAS BEEN THE TRADE COMPLEMENTARITY IN BILATERAL TRADE BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN?
30 Trade Complementarity Index (TCI) d is the importing country of interest, s is the exporting country of interest, w is the world, x is the commodity export flow, X is the total export flow, m the commodity import flow, and M the total import flow. TCI = W m iwd w x isw 1- i 2 * 100 w M wd w X sw Mathematical Definition Explanation the sum of the absolute value of the difference between the sectoral import shares of one country and the sectoral export shares of the other. Dividing by 2 coverts this to a number between 0 and 1, with zero indicating all shares matched and 1 indicating none did. Definition It measures the degree to which the export pattern of one country matches the import pattern of another.
31 Trade complementarity Index For Indian ag exports to Pakistan For Indian ag imports from Pakistan
32 `..WHO ARE INDIA S COMPETITORS IN PAKISTANI MARKET?
33 Major Suppliers in Pakistani Markets for the commodities exported by India Coffee Tea Edible Vegetables Meat Kenya 49.5% India 33.9% India 73.9% India 13.1 % Australia 21.2% China 16.4% China 7.8% Myanmar 7.6% UAE 5.1% Rwanda 4.8% Ethiopia 6% US 2.4% Vietnam 4.5% China 5.9% Jordan 0.7% Cereals Cotton Dairy Products US China 36.2% 32% India US 27.9% 17.4% US New Zealand France 30.5% 15.1% 11.9% Thailand 10.4% Brazil 15.8% Germany 10.8% India Brazil 6.2% 3.4% China Afghanistan 11.1% 10% Lithuania 8.6% India 2.8% Source: International Trade Centre
34 `..HOW FAVOURABLE IS THE TRADE POLICY ENVIRONMENT IN TWO COUNTRIES?
35 India s Import Duty Structure Item Description Basic Customs duty (%) Bound Duty (%) (As on ) ( As on ) Cereals and Pulses Pulses other than peas (pisum sativum) Free 100 Maize (Corn) seed Buck wheat and canary seed Free 100 Other cereals (rye, barley etc.) Free 100 Dairy Products Fresh milk and cream Butter and melted butter (ghee) Cheese Milk powder Yoghurt Plantation Crops Tea Coffee Other Spices 30/70 150/100 Meat & Poultry Meat of poultry, not cut in pieces, fresh or chilled Raw harms, pig fat; meat of bovine animals other meat and offal Processed hams Fish 30 unbound
36 India s Import Duty Structure Item Description Basic Customs duty (%) (As on ) Bound Duty (%) ( As on ) Sugar Edible Oils (Crude) Soyabean Oil RBD Palmolein Palm oil Groundnut Oil Sunflower Coconut oil Edible grade Coconut oil other Rapeseed oil Colza or Mustard oil Castor Oil/ Tung oil Safflower Other Oils edible grade Other Oils other than edible grade /300
37 Product India s Exports and Pakistan s Imports: $ Mill TE : Identification of Growth Opportunities India's Exports to world Pakistan's Imports from India Pakistan's Imports from world Live animals Meat and meat products Fish and crustaceans Dairy products and eggs Products of animal origin Live trees and plants of parts Vegetables, roots and tubers Fruits and nuts Tea and spices Cereals Oilseeds Lac gums etc Vegetable planting material and prod Animal or vegetable fats Sugar and sugar confectionery Cereal preparations Vegeatble, fruits and nuts prep Misc edible preparations Tobacco and tobacco products Raw hides and skins Wool and other products Cotton Other vegetable textile fibres
38 Indian Imports and Pakistani Exports $Million TE : Identification of Growth Opportunities Pakistan's Exports India's Imports from India's Imports from to world Pakistan world Live animals Meat and meat products Fish and crustaceans Dairy products and eggs Products of animal origin Live trees and plants of parts Vegetables, roots and tubers Fruits and nuts Tea and spices Cereals Oilseeds Lac gums etc Vegetable planting material and products Animal or vegetable fats Sugar and sugar confectionery Cereal preparations Vegeatble, fruits and nuts preparations Misc edible preparations Tobacco and tobacco products Raw hides and skins Wool and other products Cotton Other vegetable textile fibres
39 Main Conclusions Agriculture trade has moved to higher level after implementation of SAFTA. Agriculture share in India s export to Pakistan increasing, whereas agriculture share in Pakistan s export to India declining. Export to Pakistan dominated by one to two commodities though diversifying. Sugar share largely replaced by cotton and vegetables. Minor products witnessed consistent and spectacular growth (Psyllium Isabgol) Changes in domestic instability in production is playing major role in determining trade trend and composition thus much trade for stabilization not based on comparative advantage. Demand diversification in both countries is infusing dynamism and consistency in trade. Export to third country promoting demand for raw material and affecting trade pattern.
40 .. There is high complementarity between Pakistan s imports and India s export of agricultural products, however, there is low complementarity between India s imports and Pakistan s exports. There are opportunities for Pakistan to push export of fruits and nuts, raw hides & skins and cotton textiles. Major import of India are also the imports of Pakistan Large opportunity for India to export dairy products, vegetables, tea & spices, oilseeds and raw cotton. Acceleration of agricultural growth in India post has thrown many surprises. Proximity and regional trade
41 Growth rate percent per annum Growth Trajectory of Agriculture GDP at Prices, to Decade ending with
42 Recent Achievements Indian Agri Growth deceleration to growth acceleration DE to DE : 3.5% to 2.0% DE to DE : 2.0% to 3.7% Technology fatigue (by end of 10 th Plan) to technology resurgence-resilience of the system TFP growth rate up from 0.5% to 2.0% Net foreign exchange earnings 10 fold rise in 11 years : $ 2.5 billion : > $ 25 billion.
43 Policy Suggestions Agriculture trade need to be classified in 3 categories Trade based on comparative advantage -focus on demand diversification in two countries. Minor products and unique products. Trade to address price and market volatility. Trade in technology and knowledge products Policy and strategy facilitating mechanisms Agriculture innovation led integration Neglect of agri R&D in South Asia Technology spillovers, but serves some purpose Partner in technology generation: Nature of modern research regional research alliance Sharing of knowledge capital Best practices, innovation Trade in seed and planting material including animal
44 LOGO
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