Whither Rice & What Can Research Do About It?

Transcription

1 Whither Rice & What Can Research Do About It? OR How Science is Saving the World? R. S. Zeigler Director General Emeritus International Rice Research Institute

2 What is rice? Perhaps the oldest domesticated crop Tremendously diverse More than just food Though it is the primary staple for billions (~ 50% of world & ~ 75% of poor) Flourishes in an exceedingly wet monsoon environment Impossible for other staples > 90% production & consumption in Asia

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4 The Green Revolution in Asia (GR1.0) came to LAC early and dramatically 1960s yields <1.5 t per ha widespread famines predicted in Asia Today yields >4 t per ha in SEA & >7t in Southern Cone Area increase < 2x Yield increase > 4x economic growth Science doing what people said could never be done Image source: Nature 418, (8 August, 2002)

5 Green Revolution 1.x n Annual rate of yield increase: 52.4 kg grain/ha (R 2 =0.982)

6 Global drivers for rice supply and demand Demographics Food Preferences Trade Climate change

7 Kilograms 100 Global and Asian per capita rice Utilization Stable to increasing World Asia

8 Increasing Global Rice Demand (Estimated in 2014) Million tons milled rice Annual additional rice needed: 112 million tons by BUT: Yield growth rates are below what is needed to meet this demand! 2013 global rice consumption 300 Asia Africa Americas Rest of World

9 Urbanization Trends in Asia Population (billion) Urban Rural

10 Millions 6000 Global Middle Class Population Growth Asia ROW

11 Changing consumption patterns With rising income and urbanization: Moving from low to high quality rice Moving to healthier and nutritious rice Rising use of rice as processed products Consumption outside the home Market segmentation and sophistication: Grain quality (variety & postharvest) Degree of processing Convenience Country of origin Marketing creativity

12 Trade off? Yield, premium or healthy traits? Physical Quality Biochemical composition Eating Quality Cooking Quality Chalk Head rice yield Size and shape Amylose content Gel temperature Gel consistency Viscosity Starch Starch- Protein Sensory panelists Rheology Exploring high-throughput technology Aroma 2AP- >100 compounds

13 Global Rice Trade?

14 Transformation of the Global Soybean Market China s strategic shift to enter market Brazil creates tropical soybean opens cerrado Similar trends in maize Is rice next? 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 70/71 73/74 76/77 79/80 82/83 85/86 88/89 91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10 12/13 United States Brazil Argentina Rest of the world Data Source: PSD online database, USDA

15 Emergence of Chinese Dependence on Foreign Soybeans Was a Driver for Change 000 MT 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, /71 74/75 78/79 82/83 86/87 90/91 94/95 98/99 02/03 06/07 Domestic consumption Imports Data Source: USDA

16 Rise of China as the largest rice importer 000 Metric Tons ~ 6MT Does not include transborder trade with Vietnam and Myanmar (+ 2MT?) Data Source: PSD online database, USDA

17 Global Rice Trade A seismic shift underway?

18 Where will the world s rice come from? Ideally from increasing productivity on existing rice lands, mostly in Asia, (in 20+ years increasingly from Africa) BUT, in Asia: - Land is moving out of rice - Labor is moving out of rice - Water is moving out of rice Major changes in production practices and increases in efficiency just to stay where we are

19 Where Will This Rice Come From? Crop Land in Use and Total Suitable Land Majority of suitable land unavailable or locked up in other uses 45%: forest 12%: Protected area 3%: human settlements The remaining land may have problems such as low soil fertility, high soil toxicity, etc. Source: World Agriculture Towards 2015/2030, FAO TopofPage

20 Harvested Rice Area 5.5M ha in 2014 in Latin America and the Caribbean. One dot = 2,500 ha Irrigated Rainfed Source: Rice Almanac, 4 th Edition. Global databases need continuous collaboration across GRiSP partners to ensure that they accurately depict evolving and dynamic rice systems.

21 30 MMT LAC rice production Yield ~ 5 t/ha ~ 7 t/ha in south 10 5 Yield < 2t/ha Mexico & Central America The Caribbean South America Source: (FAOSTAT)

22 Result of 1 st GR Clearfield 2T/ha = 80 yrs!

23 Average cost of production 35,00 33,48 33,00 30,91 Custo unitário (R$/saco 50kg) - 21,8% 30,00 26,64 26,19 25,00 24,12 20,00 15, / / / / / /08 Instituto Rio Grandense do Arroz

24 Technically possible for Latin America to be competitive Technology is already present to raise yields and reduce costs New science is available that will permit further increases in yield potential and actual yield in the field while lowering costs of production

25 Research challenges Productivity to meet demand growth Adapt to climate change Diverse qualities and products Production systems Reduced farmer populations Acceptable environmental footprint

26 The greatest challenge: climate change hits rice production hardest of all cereals

27 A second science-based Green Revolution 2.0 is here

28 GR2.0: Science-based? Tap the revolutions in genetics, molecular biology and plant physiology Link soils biology and chemistry to better understand and manipulate sustainable nutrient supply Exploit the explosion of computation capacity and remote sensing to model systems and link process at scales from the cellular through ecosystems and regions Proactively link the political and social dimensions of agriculture to technology development

29 Cannot Overestimate Central Role of Genetic Resources for Coming Generations IRRI holds in trust the world s largest collection of rice varieties > 110,000 accessions Less than 5% has been used in breeding programs, but completed full DNA sequencing of 3000 lines in 2014

30 Return on investment in the 3K RGP No money can buy time on feeding the 9 billion Money CAN put time on our side Investing in enabling science and technology 3000 rice genomes is the broadest publicly available genomic information on any crop Identification of useful new genotypes Identification of useful new genes/alleles Reduction in variety breeding time

31 Genetic Resources and Diversity as Foundation Developing a Genetic Resources Platform Disease-pest resistance Quality Conserved Germplasm Breeding Lines Specialized Genetic Stocks phenotype Gene Function genotype Use Problem soils Abiotic stress tolerance conservation Phenotype-genotype association dissemination

32 Translating 3000 genome sequences Systematic global partnership in evaluation and analysis Systematic global assessment of breeding lines and free exchange Global free access to fundamental data Right to protect derived innovations

33 Wild Species of Oryza: The Resource to Meet Tomorrow s Challenges O. officinalis O. alta O. minuta O. brachyantha O. rufipogon O. longistaminata Drought, salt, flood, heat Insect resistance Disease resistance Yield and nutrient use

34 Making rice climate-ready drought salinity submergence heat

35 Mega-river deltas of Asia 50% of rice production growth in last 25 years came from delta countries

36 Breeding for submergence tolerance Large areas of rainfed lowland rice have short-term submergence (eastern India to SE Asia); > 10 m ha Even favorable areas have short-term flooding problems in some years Flood tolerance identified in a traditional Indian variety FR 13A in 1978 Poor field performance and grain quality

37 New Sub1 lines after 17 days submergence in the field at IRRI IR64-Sub1 Samba-Sub1 IR49830 (Sub1) Samba IR64 Samba IR42 IR42 IR49830 (Sub1) IR64 IR64-Sub1 IR49830 (Sub1) Samba IR64 Samba-Sub1 IR42 IR49830 (Sub1) IR64-Sub1 IR64-Sub1 IR42 IR49830 (Sub1) Samba Samba-Sub1 IR64

38 GR 2.0 July 31 Sub1 varieties: help poor farmers cope with frequent flooding :17 Major support from Japan, USAID, BMGF, GOI enables us to reach >5M farmers by 2015 millions more over the next few years Released in Bangladesh, India and Philippines 2009 Nepal in February 2011 Mr. Asha Ram Pal Village Palia Goa, District Faizabad, Uttar Pradesh Oct. 31

39 Variation in Rainfall = Risk of Drought

40 Drought-tolerant varieties Drought-tolerant varieties across S Asia Yield advantage of t/ha under moderate to severe drought, but with no penalty under non-stress conditions Sahbhagi dhan in India Tarharra 1 in Nepal Sahod Ulan 1 in Philippines

41 2 in 1: Drought + submergence tolerance - QTL + QTL - QTL Drought-tolerant varieties across S Asia Yield advantage of t/ Combined with submergence tolerance Traits relevant to rice world-wide Swarna Swarna + DTY

42 A new non GMO herbicide resistance for rice from a wild relative? I m not saying there is, And I m not saying there isn t But, in addition...

43 Germination under water: the ultimate herbicide Irrigated The capability of seeds to germinate and emerge under water It is an important trait for direct seeded rice (DSR) production systems Improved crop establishment Improved weed control (main problem in DSR) FR13A IR64 Rainfed Source Can we develop varieties that germinate under water?

44 Does Anaerobic Germination tolerance work in the field? Flooding with 5-7 cm after direct dry seeding Evaluation after 2-3 weeks

45 AG1 Control In yield trials across Asia AG1 perform as well or better than current varieties under under optimum management Trait now being combined with submergence tolerance and drought tolerance. Available in WS

46 The future of hybrid rice? 15 20% yield advantage over non-hybrids in China, important in Americas Is yield enough? Grain quality Largely solved with broadened genetic base Seed cost IRRI has created (and protected) hybrid parental lines with seed production rates approaching conventional seed production No chemical induction, non transgenic trait from wild relative Limited exclusivity licensing under negotiations

47 What do we do about managing our rice crop more efficiently?

48 The best practices for growing rice sustainably differ among fields and farmers Fields vary in rice-growing conditions Farmers vary in access to financial resources, inputs, and technologies Farmers need information to increase income for their specific rice-farming situation and markets must value verifiable sustainable production practices

49 50 major global partners in creating a sustainable rice production pathway for rural development, farmer and consumer welfare Develop a set of global standards for best practices of sustainable rice production quantifiable sustainability targets decision-support tools (such as Field or footprint Calculators) Promote the adoption of best practices and sustainability criteria for value addition

50 For transparent trade, sound medium and long-term planning, what do we need to know? Location specific, timely and accurate information on rice production, supplies, and trends. In particular: What is the harvested area? When will it be harvested? What is the yield? A combination of remote sensing and crop yield modeling can provide this information under certain conditions

51 Mapping rice from space Regular monitoring of rice growing areas using cloud penetrating satellite imagery, modeling and regional ground-truthing to accurately estimate rice area, rice production and damage from calamities. Area >90% accurate Yield >85% accurate Coverage SEA & SA

52 Leveraging new technologies Area can be mapped at detail of smallest fields, yield can be accurately estimated at district level and forecasted one or two months before harvest by linking remote sensing observations of crop growth to IRRI s crop modeling expertise yield estimates in t/ha in Takeo, Cambodia for Early Wet season (left) and a forecast for the ongoing Main Wet Season (right)

53 National/Global Rice Information Gateways Policy makers Medium-term projections Analysis of policy impacts Rice supplydemand-trade model Monitoring and shortterm forecasting Crop growth models Statistics, GIS Remote sensing

54 Rice Sector Transformation Global Market Transformation Drivers: Policies, market segmentation, resource scarcity. Wild card: China Retail Transformation Drivers: Urbanization, diversification, Home away consumption, Processed Supply Chain Transformation Drivers: cost saving, Changing demand pattern Farm Level Transformation Drivers: Labor market, land market, Migration, diversification, technology

55 We have before us Surge of new technologies and potential technologies to benefit changing rice community The way rice will be grown and marketed to meet demand in a changing climate Surge in the demand for these technologies How best to reach diverse rice farmers Transformational interest of private sector in the rice sector A global market and production economy under major transformation Be prepared to adopt technologies with competitive agility

56 LAC becoming the next Rice Bowl!? Biggest advantage: Endowed with plenty of land and water. Bottleneck Global market is too small and unstable. As it stands right now, LAC rice is not competitive in the export market. Although subsidies in many rice growing countries make it even look worse Inadequate infrastructure What Needs to Happen? LAC countries need to lower costs to $1,000 per hectare and improve productivity to at least 7 tons/ha to be able to compete in the global market (Calvert et al.) A stable global market and minimal distortions in rice trade.

57 Big Questions for Americas (esp. LAC) Where will the research innovation come from? Will it primarily come from Asia? From multinationals? Can rice sector still be served by the public sector? IRRI? CIAT? FLAR? EMBRAPA? Fundamental policy and philosophical questions

58 Precious things are not pearls and jade but the five grains of which rice is the finest - Ancient Chinese saying

59 Thank you! Robert S. Zeigler