Climate Change and Agriculture in Central Canada Mike Brklacich & Dave Burhoe Dept of Geography & Environmental Studies Carleton University, Canada

Transcription

1 Climate Change and Agriculture in Central Canada Mike Brklacich & Dave Burhoe Dept of Geography & Environmental Studies Carleton University, Canada

2 Key Qs about Vulnerability? What is vulnerable (or threatened)? Why is it vulnerable (or what is the threat)? What can be done to improve security (or eliminate the threat)?

3 Overview: CC & Agriculture in Central Canada Impacts & Adaptation Studies Findings Outline Vulnerability Framework Central Canada Case Studies Comparing Concepts to Practice

4 Findings from Impacts & Adaptation Studies Temp increases of >1.5 o C Less certainty re precipitation Yields sensitivity (% change): Coarse grains: 15 to +66 Small grains: -31% to +25% More land suitable for fruits/veg

5 Vulnerability Concepts I: Impacts & Adaptation Perspectives Impacts/Adaptation Attributes a) Climatic change entry point b) Impacts assessed first c) Adaptations considered sequentially d) Single stressor e) Vulnerability as a residual of impacts f) Farmers as victims

6 Vulnerability Concepts II: Rethinking Vulnerability Influence of famine and hazards research a) Vulnerability as a system property b) External and internal sides of vulnerability c) Dual role of exposure and coping capacity d) Differential vulnerabilities e) Multiple stressors

7 Contemporary Views on Vulnerability Capacity of communities to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impacts of environmental change (Vogel 1998)

8 Building A Framework To Link CC & Vulnerability Research CLIMATIC CHANGE Change in type, freq & mag of threats BIO-PHYSICAL SENSITIVITY CC Exposure

9 Building A Framework To Link CC & Vulnerability Research cont d CLIMATIC CHANGE Change in type, freq & mag of threats Capacity to cope with & recover from CC COMPREHENSIVE VULNERABILITY/ SECURITY CC Exposure SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc

10 Central Canada Case Studies: Vulnerability of Farming Systems West Quebec & Eastern Ontario Position climatic change within broader decision-making context Process: Focus Group Mtg (FGM)

11 Focus Group Mtg (FGM) FGMs: 2 West Quebec, 1 Eastern Ont Hosted by local agricultural community Moderated discussion a) Recent changes (major changes, affects on farming, reasons) b) Looking forward (key factors prompting future change, climatic change influence)

12 FGM: Recent Changes Fewer but larger farms Prices stagnant, costs increasing Aging farmers Urban, non-farm encroachment Inferior land brought into prodt n Enhanced efficiency from new technology Low land prices reduce options

13 FGM: Recent Changes cont d Loss in agricultural services Emergence of environmental regulation Exiting by middle-aged farmers Declining position of agriculture in society

14 FGM: Looking to the Future Farm size continues to increase Greater importance on mgt skills Increased regulation & administration Increased pluri-activity farming Further erosion of agriculture's position Threats to supply mgt Increased contract farming

15 FGM: Looking Forward cont d Climatic Change Drought more of a concern than warming. Climatic extremes of concern. Greater need for reliable local forecasts. Broader agricultural trends of greater concern than CC.

16 Building A Framework To Link CC & Vulnerability Research cont d CLIMATIC CHANGE Change in type, freq & mag of threats Capacity to cope with & recover from CC COMPREHENSIVE VULNERABILITY/ SECURITY CC Exposure SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc

17 Comparing Concepts to Practice Multiple stressors rather than a climatic change focus is required Declines in coping capacity greater threat than climatic change External and internal components a valid approach Differential vulnerabilities evident Vulnerability exposed not caused by extreme event(s)

18 Use Of Scenarios What is being done elsewhere? Opportunities for cc agriculture research.

19 Temperature change ( O C) The change in temperature resulting from the SRES emission scenarios Scenarios A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 IS92a (TAR method) Source: IPCC TAR AII IS92 2 IS92 a Years Bars show the range in 2100 produced by several model

20 IPCC SRES EMISSIONS SCENARIOS (TAR) A1: A world of rapid economic growth and rapid introductions of new and more efficient technologies A2: A very heterogenous world with an emphasis on familiy values and local traditions B1: A world of dematerialization and introduction of clean technologies B2: A world with an emphasis on local solutions to economic and environmental sustainability IS92a business as usual scenario (1992) Source: IPCC TAR