Partners meeting Presentation. 2 nd March 2016

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1 Partners meeting Presentation 2 nd March 2016

2 Agenda Introduction Review previous minute and action points FSNAU Post Deyr FSNAU presentation / implication to FSC Early Warning-Early Action Triggers Dashboard initiative of FSNAU Institutional Capacity Assessment for the Somalia Disaster Management Agency (SODMA) by ADESO CERF and emergency reserve fund update response to drought in Somaliland and Puntland FSC Responses for January/ implication AAP Update AOB

3 Information for Better Livelihoods The 2015/16 Post Deyr Seasonal Food Security And Nutrition Assessment In Somalia: Major Findings and Recommendations Presentation to the Food Security Cluster 2 March 2016, Nairobi

Mostly average to above-average in Southern and Central Somalia Below normal rainfall

and Juba regions Localized, unusual moderate rains precipitated in Guban pastoral of

River flooding during Deyr 2015 has been moderate (Middle Shabelle, Juba and Gedo

Projection used by FSNAU: There is an increased likelihood for nearaverage 2016 Gu

New Projection from ICPAC: There is an increased likelihood for near to below normal

4 Mostly average to above-average in Southern and Central Somalia Below normal rainfall in large portions of Northwest and Northeast and some coastal parts of Lower Shabelle and Juba regions Localized, unusual moderate rains precipitated in Guban pastoral of Awdal in September to November followed by near normal Hays rains in December 2015 River flooding during Deyr 2015 has been moderate (Middle Shabelle, Juba and Gedo region) but still caused damage to some standing crops and agricultural lands Projection used by FSNAU: There is an increased likelihood for nearaverage 2016 Gu season rainfall in Somalia. New Projection from ICPAC: There is an increased likelihood for near to below normal 2016 Gu season rainfall in northern drought affected areas and most of Gedo and Juba regions in the South. October RFE Totals (mm) 2015 Deyr Rainfall Performance And Outlook for 2016 Gu November RFE Totals (mm) December RFE Totals (mm) Deyr 2015 rainfall Totals in mm (Difference from mean) NDVI Anomaly (3 rd Dekad of Dec)

AGRICULTURE 2015/16 Deyr cereal production (estimated at 130 100 MT including 3

and 18% above the five year average for 2010-2014.

Lower Shabelle, the two main surplus producing regions.

5 AGRICULTURE 2015/16 Deyr cereal production (estimated at MT including 3 300MT off-season) is 21% above Deyr 2014; 28% above long-term ( ) average; and 18% above the five year average for /16 Deyr cereal production above average in most regions including Bay and Lower Shabelle, the two main surplus producing regions. In the Northwest, 2015 Gu/Karan cereal production estimated at MT is 87% lower than the Average for due to below average Gu/Karan rains

LIVESTOCK With the exception of drought affected parts of the North, livestock production and reproduction have continued to improve, contributing to improved food security outcomes.

6 LIVESTOCK With the exception of drought affected parts of the North, livestock production and reproduction have continued to improve, contributing to improved food security outcomes. Pasture and water remain average in most regions, except in large parts of Northern Inland pastoral (NIP) and Northwestern Agropastoral of North, parts of Coastal in South-Central and pocket areas in Dolow (Gedo region) and Hobyo (Mudug) Abnormal migration from rain deficit area of Bari/Sanaag and parts of Nugal regions to areas that received better rainfall in the lower part of Nugal and North Mudug Large livestock in-migration from Ethiopia, Djibouti and Awdal/Woqooyi Galbeed regions to Guban Pastoral Livelihood Zone Harsh Jilaal (Jan-Mar) is expected to lead to increased cost of water and water trucking and increased livestock off-take (increased sell and death), particularly in drought affected areas of North Pasture, browse, and water availability are expected to improve following the start of projected near normal Gu rains in April

7 Prevalence of GAM Among Different Livelihood in Somalia 12.9 % (overall) During 2015/16 Deyr Critical levels of acute malnutrition (GAM 15-30%) were observed in: o o 4 out of 13 IDP population groups surveyed 7 out of 23 rural population groups surveyed Total acutely malnourished population identified from the 2015/16 Deyr assessment findings (N=304,700) has not changed significantly from the levels reported for 2015 Gu assessment (N=307,800). In other, words, prevalence of wasting has stagnated over the last six month period.

past seven seasonal assessments, Critical GAM rates were reported for the following population groups: Bari Urban, Garowe IDPs,

8 Protracted Acute Malnutrition Crisis In some Parts of Somalia Critical levels of acute malnutrition tend to persist in a number of population groups, highlighting the protracted nature of the acute malnutrition crisis in these areas In almost all of the past seven seasonal assessments, Critical GAM rates were reported for the following population groups: Bari Urban, Garowe IDPs, Galkayo IDPs, Mataban District, Beletweyne District, Bay Agropastoral, Dollow IDPs, North Gedo Pastoral and North Gedo Riverine.

9 RURAL LIVELIHOODS (Livestock-Dependent) There are an estimated 3.6 million pastoralists and mainly livestock-dependent agropastoralists across Somalia (29% of the total population) Milk availability (source of income/ food): Average in most except in Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood (NIP) where it is low to medium Livestock holding (main asset): Livestock herd sizes are also increasing in most livelihoods except in NIP where slight decreases in goats are expected and further decline expected during the projection period Purchasing Power: Terms of Trade (TOT) goat/ cereals: Mainly due to depressed livestock prices, livestock to cereals Terms of Trade are declining but remain above the five-year average in most regions

10 RURAL LIVELIHOODS (Mainly Crop-dependent) There are an estimated 2.4 million mainly crop-dependent agropastoralists and riverine people across Somalia (20% of the total population) Cereal stock availability among poor households: Cereal stock availability is up to 3-4 months among poor farmers in major cerealproducing regions; 1-2 months of stocks in others Farm Labour (income source): Farm labor wages have improved during Deyr 2015 due to good seasonal performance and remain at or above averages levels in most livelihoods and regions Access to agricultural labor employment is expected to be average/normal during the forthcoming Gu (Apr-Jun) season Terms of Trade (daily farm labor wage/ cereals): Wage labor to cereal Terms of Trade is close to or just slightly below average in most regions

URBAN LIVELIHOODS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Food Consumption Score Banadir Bari Lower Juba Nugaal Poor Borderline Acceptable Expenditure on Food as % of Total

11 URBAN LIVELIHOODS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Food Consumption Score Banadir Bari Lower Juba Nugaal Poor Borderline Acceptable Expenditure on Food as % of Total Expenditure o Purchasing power (TOT between casual labor wage/ cereals) indicated stable or increase according to three comparison periods (6 months, oneyear and 5yr average) across most regions. o Market purchase is the main source of food for urban households o Based on household food consumption score, Acceptable food consumption levels were reported by the vast majority of urban population surveyed (Mogadishu/ Banadir, Kismayo/Lower Juba, Bari and Nugal ) There is a high degree of vulnerability (expenditure on food exceeding over 70% of total household expenditure) among a majority of surveyed households (Mogadishu/ Banadir, Kismayo/Lower Juba, Bari and Nugal )

12 Urban Livelihoods Conflict-Affected (Trade Embargo) Districts 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Wheat Flour Rice Imported Food Prices Sugar Wheat Flour Rice Sugar Wheat Flour Sorghum Prices Rice Sugar Wheat Flour Rice Bulo-Burte Wajid Hudur Dinsor December,14 July,15 December.15 Bulo-Burte (White) Wajid (red) Hudur (red) Dinsor (red) Sugar In urban areas affected by trade disruption due to insurgent activities, imported food prices have declined in conflict affected areas of Bakool urban (Hudur, Wajid) and Hiran (Bulo-Burte) since Dec 2014 and July However, imported prices have increased in Diinsoor Uban (Bay) Prices of local cereal (red sorghum) have also showed a stable or declining trend since Dec 2014 December,14 July,15 December.15

IDP Settlements 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

Savings (%) Highest proportion of recent IDP arrivals(in the past 12 months) are in Kismayo (33%)

displacement. More IDP households have very high levels of Acceptable food consumption.

About 46% of IDPs in Dolow have Poor food consumption; while in Baidoa, and Qardho more than 40% of

13 IDP Settlements 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Food Consumption Score Poor Borderline Acceptable Household Expediture Food (%) Non-food (%) Savings (%) Highest proportion of recent IDP arrivals(in the past 12 months) are in Kismayo (33%) and Baidoa (32%) and Banadir (22%); insecurity and localized floods were the main causes of displacement. More IDP households have very high levels of Acceptable food consumption. Main exceptions are Dollow, Baidoa and Qardho IDPs. About 46% of IDPs in Dolow have Poor food consumption; while in Baidoa, and Qardho more than 40% of IDP HH have Poor to Borderline food consumption. Most IDPs also have very high vulnerability to food insecurity (>75% expenditures on food) and high asset poverty(0-4 assets)

Acute Food Insecurity Situation Acute Food Security Projection (Feb-Jun 2016) In

Somalia with IDPs accounting for over 70 percent of the total.

953 000 are projected to experience acute food security Crisis and Emergency through

14 Acute Food Insecurity Situation Acute Food Security Projection (Feb-Jun 2016) In January 2016, people were in acute food security Crisis and Emergency across Somalia with IDPs accounting for over 70 percent of the total. Current (Jan 2016) total number of people in need is 4.5 million are projected to experience acute food security Crisis and Emergency through June 2016; IDPs account for about 68 percent of the total. Projected (Feb-Jun 2016) total number of people in need is 4.7 million.

15 Summary Results ACUTE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION OVERVIEW Rural, Urban and IDP Populations: January 2016, Current ACUTE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION OVERVIEW Rural, Urban and IDP Populations: Feb-Jun 2016, Projection

i Total Urban Rural Kilometers 282,000 (8%) Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural 376,000 (11%) Total Urban Rural 103,000 (9%) Total Urban Rural #,### (##%) Pop.

16 i Total Urban Rural Kilometers 282,000 (8%) Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural 376,000 (11%) Total Urban Rural 103,000 (9%) Total Urban Rural #,### (##%) Pop. and % in Phases 3, 4, and 5 Area has reached 3,4 or 5 for more than 3 consecutive years Area would likely be at least 1 phase worse without effects of humanitarian assistance Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Summary Results and Key Messages An estimated children under the age of five are acutely malnourished. This includes that are severely malnourished and face increased risk of morbidity and death Both groups need urgent nutrition and health support people across Somalia will be in Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4) through June 2016 and need urgent lifesaving humanitarian assistance and livelihood support. Acute Nutrition Situation (Jan 2016): Approximately 3.7 million additional people acute food security Stress (IPC Phase 2) through Mid They remain highly vulnerable to shocks which could push them to food security Crisis or Emergency In total, 4.7 million people across Somalia are in need of humanitarian assistance through June 2016 IPC KENYA! Some population groups suffer from high levels of acute food insecurity as well as acute malnutrition Acute Food Security Projection (Feb-Jun 2016): FSNAU Integrated Food Security Somalia Somalia Acute Acute Food Food Insecurity n Security Situation Overview Phase n ClassificatioRural, Urban and Rural, IDP Urban n Populations: and IDP Populatio February s : F ebruary - June, - June , Most Most Likely Likely Scenario Scenario Aggregate Numbers Rural and Urban Populations in Phases 3, 4 & 5 Phase % of (000s) Total Pop 1 62% 7, % 3, % % % 0 =10% of the population Ceel Waq Baardheere Dobley 7,000 (1%) Badhadhe! # Zeylac Lughaye AWDAL Baki! Borama Berbera W. GALBEED BORAMA!. Sheikh # Gebiley # HARGEYSA BURAO!.!!. Hargeysa #! Owdweyne TOGDHEER Ceel Barde BAKOOL Rab- Xudur Dhuure!. HUDUR # Luuq Wajid GARBAHAREY Baydhaba!. BAIDOA Garbaharey!. #! Qansax BAY GEDO Dheere Beled Hawa L. JUBA Qoryoley MARKA Sakow Kurtun Warrey Marka!. M. JUBA BU'AALE Sablale!. L. SHABELLE # Bu'aale Brava Afmadow Dolo # # Kismayo! Technical Partners # Dinsor # Jilib Jamaame 45,000 (4%) Bur Hakaba # Tayeglow 24,000 (3%) KISMAAYO!. ± ,000 (7%) Cadaado Cabudwaaq DUSAMAREB!. #! Dhusa Mareeb GALGADUD BELET WEYNE Beled!. Weyne # Ceel Bur # HIIRAN Burco Bulo Barde Jalalaqsi Cadale Jowhar M. SHABELLE Wanle Weyne!. JOWHAR # Balcad Afgoye #!# BANADIR Calula BOSSASO!. # Qandala! Las Qoray/ Badhan Bossaaso ERIGABO!. # Iskushuban SANAG Ceel Afweyne Ceerigaabo BARI Caynabo Xudun SOOL LAS ANODLaas Caanood Garowe Buuhoodle!. GAROWE #!. #! Aden Yabal Goldogob!. #! Ceel Dheere Galkacyo GALKAYO FSNAU Funding Agencies Hobyo Harardheere Talex Burtinle MUDUG NUGAL Jariiban! Qardho Eyl Bandar Beyla 41,000 (6%) 39,000 (7%) Definng Attributes of Crisis Areas in Phase 3, 4 or 5 0% e 100% Acute Food Insecurity Phase 1 Minimal 2 Stressed 3 Crisis Acceptable Medium High 4 Emergency 5 Famine Areas with inadequate evidence Not Analyzed IDP settlement Color depicts phase Urban settlement Color depicts phase % of people in each phase Confidnce of analysis

17 Summary Results and Key Messages The main drivers of acute food insecurity in Somalia are: Poor rainfall and drought conditions Protracted and new population displacement due to multiple factors Trade disruption The impact of these factors on food security has been exacerbated by chronic poverty Populations in Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4) are priorities for food security and livelihoods support programming. They are found in large concentrations in Banadir (22%), Bari (11%), Awdal (10%) and Sanaag (10%) Regions. The prevailing drought conditions and consequent food security outcomes are expected to worsen at least until the start of Gu rains in April in Awdal, Bari and Sanaag Regions. Therefore, in addition to humanitarian assistance, they need urgent livelihood support during the dry Jilaal season

18 Summary Results and Key Messages Other priority groups include poor and vulnerable urban populations affected by trade disruption: Bulo Burto (Hiran Region) and Hudur and Wajid (Bakool Region) and Dinsoor (Bay Region). Given the protracted nature of the food security crisis in in some parts of Somalia (including IDPs), conducting IPC chronic analysis would be appropriate in order to inform medium to long term food security programme/response planning, including integration of explicit goals and strategies in the preparation of the Somalia National Development Plan Urgent nutrition and health support for the acutely malnourished is needed now and through mid However, this is not enough for populations experiencing persistently high levels of acute malnutrition. They need additional multifaceted interventions aimed at addressing the underlying causes and contributing factors. Conducting nutrition causal analysis would also be appropriate in order to unearth the underlying causes and contributing factors in order to inform improved programme/response planning There is a need for urgent early action in drought affected areas in the North although key food security variables (water prices, livestock prices, Terms of Trade, CMB, etc.) do not indicate crisis level, this could be due to the reduced market demand/supply as a result of substantial outmigration of livestock. This is specially in light of new Projection from ICPAC which indicates an increased likelihood for near to below normal 2016 Gu season rainfall in northern drought affected areas.

19 Information for Better Livelihoods Database and Dashboard for Linking Early Warning to Early Action in Somalia - a Pilot Initiative FSC partners meeting, 2 March 2016

20 Background and Objective After the Somali famine of 2011 the humanitarian community decided to strengthen the linkage between early warning and early action. Missing elements in early warning were a mechanism for consensus building and accountability framework for triggering early action. FSNAU in partnership with OCHA, DFID and other partners developed a concept note for linking Early Warning and Early action in Somalia Objective: To facilitate decision making for early action through monitoring of a set of multi sector indicators and establishing individual as well as overall thresholds for key indicators. FSNAU subsequently developed a database and dashboard for linking early warning to early action; this was launched in early February 2016

21 The Process A Consultative Process Involving: UN (OCHA, FSNAU/FAO SWALIM/FAO, WHO, WFP, UNICEF, UNHCR) Donors (DFID, ECHO) Clusters (Food Security, Nutrition, WASH) NGOs (Save the Children, Nutrition Consortium of NGOs, BRCiS consortium of NGOs, SomReP consortium of NGOS) Technical partners (FEWS NET/USAID ) Consensus on Five Sets of Indicators and Associated Thresholds: 1. Climate: rainfall, NDVI, price of water, etc 2. Population movement: displacement numbers 3. Nutrition: trends in admission to feeding centers, clinical anthropometry, acute watery diarrhea, etc 4. Health: outbreak of measles, polio and acute watery diarrhea 5. Market: cereal price, livestock prices, wage labor and terms of trade

22 Indicators and Thresholds KEY MONITORING INDICATORS THRESHOLDS NORMAL ALERT ALARM 1. CLIMATE Rainfall Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) # of consecutive dekads of below normal rainfall 0 1 dekad 2 dekads # of consecutive dekads of below normal NDVI 0 1 dekad 2 dekads Tropical storm alerts El Nino/La Nina Outlook Likelihood that a tropical storm will struck the ground <50% 50-75% 75-90% # of consecutive months of high (El Nino) / low (La Nina) SST or ENSO conditions 1 month 2 months 3 months Price of water 2. POPULATION MOVEMENT Number of displaced population 3. NUTRITION # of consecutive months where price increased above five year average 1 month 2 months 3 months # of consecutive months where forced displacements increased above five year average 1 month 2 months 3 months Trends in admission to feeding and MCH centers % increase in 3 months <10% 10-15% >15% Trends in acute malnutrition from health facilities % increase in 3 months <5% 5% >5% Trends in acute watery diarrhea % increase in 3 months <10% 10-20% >20%

23 Indicators and Thresholds KEY MONITORING INDICATORS 4. HEALTH THRESHOLDS NORM AL ALERT ALARM Measles outbreak Number of confirmed measles cases AWD outbreak Number of AWD cases 0 Double average of previous 2 weeks Case fatality rate above 2 Polio outbreak Number of confirmed polio cases MARKET Maize prices Sorghum prices Local goat prices Wage labor Terms of trade (wage labor to cereals) Terms of trade (local quality goat to cereals) # of consecutive months where price increased above five year average # of consecutive months where price increased above five year average # of consecutive months where price decreased below five year average # of consecutive months where price decreased below five year average # of consecutive months where terms of trade decreased below five year average # of consecutive months where terms of trade decreased below five year average 1 month 2 months 3 months 1 month 2 months 3 months 1 month 2 months 3 months 1 month 2 months 3 months 1 month 2 months 3 months 1 month 2 months 3 months

Decision Tree for Early Warning-Early Action Threshold for key sets of indicators Threshold not exceeded (Normal) Threshold exceeded (Alert) Threshold exceeded

Actual/Potential Impact Available Include 'Areas for Close Monitoring' in the recommendation to HCT Undertake sector-specific or integrated needs assessment +

24 Decision Tree for Early Warning-Early Action Threshold for key sets of indicators Threshold not exceeded (Normal) Threshold exceeded (Alert) Threshold exceeded (Alarm) Continue monitoring indicator Close monitoring of indicator Sufficient Information on Actual/Potential Impact Not Available Sufficient Information on Actual/Potential Impact Available Include 'Areas for Close Monitoring' in the recommendation to HCT Undertake sector-specific or integrated needs assessment + initial response Minimal or no impact. Therefore, no further action required Sectorspecific response due to considerable impact Integrated response due to considerable impact

25 Triggers System - Indicator

26 Triggers System District data

27 Triggers System - Report

28 Triggers System - Report

29 Challenges Delays in compilation and submission of data by Clusters to FSNAU Need to review and adjust some indicators and/or thresholds Different organizations have different district lists with which they collect data Missing and incomplete data, especially for areas that are inaccessible due to insecurity

30 Next Steps Clusters/Inter-Cluster Working Group to facilitate timely compilation and submission of data to FSNAU Review and adjust some indicators and/or thresholds in consultation with relevant technical partners Adopt district lists that can be used by all Clusters for submission of data to FSNAU Present updated concept note and dashboard for approval by HCT

31 Institutional Capacity Assessment for the Somalia Disaster Management Agency (SODMA)

32 SODMA presentation Methodology and approach to the assessment Disaster and perception of disaster management in Somalia Governance and institutional capacity - Legitimacy - Policy framework - Institutional capacity Conclusion / recommendations

33 SODMA presentation Created in 2011 on the basis of a PM decree, 26 staff, 3 MIDA staff, SODMA vision: Transformation of Somalia into a fair and secure society in which the impact of hazards would not hamper development and the ecosystem and provision for a better quality of life will be achieved through effective emergency and disaster services.

34 SODMA presentation The overall goal of the disaster management strategy is to ensure a proper and effective mechanism for disaster mitigation and preparedness that will save lives and livelihoods in the country. The goals are: 1. Articulate the vision and goals for disaster management in Somalia. 2. Outline the strategic direction to guide the development of disaster management policies. 3. Align the strategic direction for disaster risk reduction with international norms and framework conventions. 4. Mainstream disaster mitigation into relevant areas of activity of Government, NGOs, Private Sector and Civil Society Organizations. 5. Strengthen the governance and accountability arrangements in place that support achievements of disaster management priorities.

35 Methodology and approach to the assessment Methodology Desk review, KII (18), FGDs (9) Field deployment only in Mogadishu for the evaluation team. Approach to the assessment - Disaster and perception of disaster management in Somalia - Legitimacy - Policy framework - Capacity

36 Disaster and perception of disaster management in Somalia Floods, drought and conflicts occur on regular basis. Impact is increased poverty, displacement, destruction of infrastructures, access constraints to essential services. A focus on emergency response. Predictability and recurrence of crisis. Besides disasters, there exists structural poverty and chronic vulnerability that perpetuates a chronic humanitarian crisis situation, exacerbated by disasters like floods, droughts and on-going conflicts.

37 Disaster and perception of disaster management in Somalia Perception on the traditional disaster response in Somalia The aid community and aid delivery in Somalia are difficult to map and record. Data is available as various data sets. The aid community is mainly concentrated in urban areas where the government is present (especially in South)- which limits the scope of response when it comes to targeting the most vulnerable communities in the rural areas. Access constraints. Timely response. Although basic early warning mechanisms may be in place, information is concentrated at the Nairobi level and dissemination of information amongst the exposed and vulnerable communities is not effective enough.

Institutional Capacity Assessment for the Somalia Disaster

others governmental agencies - Relations with the regions PM

38 Institutional Capacity Assessment for the Somalia Disaster Management Agency Governance and institutional capacity Legal legitimacy - Legal status. Act of the parliament, third reading, - Relations with others governmental agencies - Relations with the regions PM office MOPIC MoIFA SODMA DHA NCRI A Somali governmental agency to lead Somali disaster management

39 Institutional Capacity Assessment for the Somalia Disaster Management Agency Intention to register NGOs

40 Institutional Capacity Assessment for the Somalia Disaster Management Agency Governance and institutional capacity Policy framework Review of the SODMA Strategic Action Plan. - DMA seems to be willing to do everything in the aid and disaster management sector. - The link between the different elements of the SAP is not clear. - The SAP does not include specificities related to the context and to the actors already active. - There is a need to simplify, to reduce ambition and to be more specific; - There is no timeframe for the SAP.

and institutional capacity Institutional

41 Institutional Capacity Assessment for the Somalia Disaster Management Agency Governance and institutional capacity Institutional capacity Strong HR capacity (26) + IOM supported MIDA project (3). Numerous staff trainings. Assets and support for running cost are conductive for high capacity. Outputs. Participation in coordination meetings, projects implemented, no policies.

42 Institutional Capacity Assessment for the Somalia Disaster Management Agency Conclusion SODMA situation within the Somali government is not stable. The SODMA identity and SAP are not clear. SODMA performance could be increased on the basis of the current capacities. SODMA outreach capacity is limited. There are currently no policies developed on DM in Somalia.

43 Institutional Capacity Assessment for the Somalia Disaster Management Agency Recommendations Clarify SODMA s role and status within the Somali government Clarify the SAP Clarify the DM role of SODMA through a clear SAP Key steps to develop a clear SAP - Map existing capacities deployed and develop those capabilities. - Identify the key issues in disaster responses. - Identify the risks and prioritize SODMA s SAP accordingly. - Think big but start small. - Engage the local community in the disaster response cycle - Coordinate responses to increase coverage and efficiency. - Define the level of responsibility per level and category of disaster. Develop DM policies Do not refer too much to model from others countries. Take into consideration Somalia specificities in relation to disaster, access and capacities. Key specificities of Somalia in relation to disasters - High frequency and intensity of natural disasters - High level of livelihood vulnerability - Poor government capacity and access - High level presence of aid organizations - High level of data collection. (SWALIM, FSNAU) - The government is an active actor in the conflicts in Somalia - High level of social support, i.e. through the clan and the support of the diaspora. - Numerous existing conflicts are related to access to natural resources (water, grazing areas and land) and clan division and competition over these resources - Somalia is regularly affected by disasters such as drought and floods and the effects are massive due to poverty and a lack of access to essential services. - A population living in constant crisis

44 Institutional Capacity Assessment for the Somalia Disaster Management Agency Recommendations SODMA should develop a realistic outreach capacity Map the local response capacity and the gap of response compared to the risk. The identification of the partnership needed should be based on the risk matrix and the mapping of actors in Somalia.

45 General Context Period covered

46 Improved Access Food & Safety Nets Actuals: November 2015 January ,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 0 November December January Actuals Gap 431,573 (37%) 387,569 (35%) 244,753 (22%) 13% percent decrease

47 November 2015 January 2016 Shows Increase in COVERAGE

48 November 2015 January 2016 Shows decrease in COVERAGE

49 LIVELIHOOD ASSESTS Actuals: November 2015 January , , , , ,000 Gap Actual 200, ,000 0 November December January 395,173 (61%) 417,946 (73%) 105,502 (16%) 57% decrease observed

50 LA November 2015 January 2016 Shows Increase COVERAGE

51 LA November 2015 January 2016 Shows Decrease in COVERAGE

52 COMPARISON BETWEEN IASN AND LIAS

53 LIIN September November 2015 Shows Increased COVERAGE

54 SEASONAL INPUTS September-November Actuals: November 2015 January % 62% 61% 60% November December January Cumulative Actuals / Seasonal Target No change in Coverage

55 AAP Update Video Click here to watch the latest APP video

FSNAU. Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Post Gu Technical Series Report No VII. 56 October 10, 2014

FSNAU. Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Post Gu Technical Series Report No VII. 56 October 10, 2014 Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Post Gu 214 Executive Summary i Technical Series Report No VII 56 October 1, 214 FSNAU Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia Technical Partners FSNAU