Regional Livestock & Pastoralism Sub-group. Response analysis: Impact analysis of El- Niño on pastoralists & identification of response options

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1 September 2012 July 2010 Regional Livestock & Pastoralism Sub-group Response analysis: Impact analysis of El- Niño on pastoralists & identification of response options FSNWG Food Security and Nutrition Working Group

2 September 2012 Converting information into action Food Security & Nutrition Information Systems Monitoring & evaluation Risk Profiling Situation Analysis Response Analysis & Identification Response Planning & coordination Response Implementation

3 Situation & Response analysis - FSNWG Regional IPC Map Seasonal Calendars Response matrix 1. Situation Analysis with hotspot details Where are we now? 2. Situation Analysis seasonality for each livelihood system Where are we now? 3. Response analysis using LEGS etc. What could we be doing now? 4. Predictive Analysis 3-6 month forecast Where are we going? 5. Predictive Analysis 3-6 month forecast for each livelihood system and wealth group Where are we going? 6. Response analysis 3-6 month action plan What could we plan? 7. ADVOCACY & PLANNING What should we do?

4 August 2012 September Oct-Dec Seasonal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Probability Forecast Rainfall Anomalies (mm) August 2010 Source: ICPAC and Partners (GHACOF 32) Source: FEWS NET/USGS Zone I,III,V,VI: increased likelihood of above normal to near normal rainfall Zone II: Usually dry Zone IV: Increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall

5 5. Regional seasonal calendars

6 5. The Oct-Dec rains above normal Sep-Oct Nov-Dec Jan-Feb Late onset? Peak of rains Prolonged rains? Usual period for vaccinations Normal shoat births Camel milk available Livestock prices high Good pasture & water access no migration Good pasture & water access Cattle & shoat condition good, although susceptible to disease. Calving conditions good but protection to young livestock in wet/cold conditions Good availability of shoat & camel milk Cattle milk available. Milk price reduces as market saturated? Grain prices decreasing Limited access to market? Debts repaid

7 Possible impacts of moderate El- Niño (too much rain) on pastoralists Problem specification Impacts Livestock Other Animal health issues diseases RVF, worms, pneumonia CCPP/CBPP Natural Resource issues improved pasture/water, poor access to some items Markets issues increased availability of some local products, very bad access Agricultural production issues immediate loss of some harvest Access to other IGA Herd size: camel same cattle - 25% loss shoat- 50% loss Milk/meat production (2 nd Season): camel - same cattle - 25% increase shoat - 25% increase Milk prices (2 nd Season): Cow s milk- 20% decrease Fishing usually slow during Oct-Dec No Food Aid scenario run without food aid/safety nets Wild foods collection: 25% loss Firewood collection: 30% loss TBP Aloe collection:50% loss Inputs prices: 25% increase Staple prices: 25% increase Sugar: 25% increase Food prices: 25% increase Fuel prices: 25% increase Turkwell agro-pastoralist: sorghum 25% loss Crafts/Self-emp: 20% loss Charcoal selling: 50% loss

8 % minimum food needs % minimum food needs % minimum food needs Impact of moderate El- Niño : Turkana pastoralists Turkana Boundary Pastoralists Turkana Central Pastoralists Very poor Livelihood deficit 25% Survival deficit 11% Total Income (food+cash) Poor Livelihood deficit 17% Total Income (food+cash) Very poor Livelihood deficit 15% Total Income (food+cash) District: TBP Livelihood Zone: Household type: TBP VP District: TBP Livelihood Zone: Household type: TBP P District: TCP Livelihood Zone: Household type: TCP VP 140% 160% 160% 120% 140% 140% 100% 120% 120% 80% 60% 40% 100% 80% 60% 40% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 20% 20% 0% ref.year curr.year thresholds food aid/safety nets other wild foods livestock sales crop sales crops milk sales milk Thresholds livelihoods protection 0% ref.year curr.year thresholds food aid/safety nets other wild foods livestock sales crop sales crops milk sales milk Thresholds livelihoods protection 0% ref.year curr.year thresholds food aid/safety nets other wild foods livestock sales crop sales crops milk sales milk Thresholds livelihoods protection

9 Impact of moderate El- Niño : Turkana agro-pastoralists Kerio Riverine Agro-pastoralists Turkwell Riverine Agro-pastoralists Very poor Livelihood deficit 11% Survival deficit 35% Total Income (food +cash) District: Kerio Livelihood Zone: KAP Household type: VP 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Poor Livelihood deficit 12% Survival deficit 10% Total Income (food +cash) District: Kerio Livelihood Zone: KAP Household type: VP 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Very poor Livelihood deficit 26% Survival deficit 9% Total Income (food +cash) District: Turkwell Livelihood Zone: TAP Household type: VP 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ref.year curr.year thresholds survival livelihoods protection Thresholds milk milk sales crops crop sales livestock sales labour 0% ref.year curr.year thresholds survival livelihoods protection Thresholds milk milk sales crops crop sales livestock sales labour 0% ref.year curr.year thresholds survival livelihoods protection Thresholds milk milk sales crops crop sales livestock sales labour

10 Impact of above normal rains on pastoralists nutrition Successful calving/kidding & restocking, improved livestock conditions and market prices Improved pasture and access to water for livestock- healthier animals with improved milk/products production Improve milk/meat production & income, better access to food = healthier communities, in particular children

11 Impact of moderate El-Niño on pastoralists nutrition too much rain (peak Nov/Dec) in flood prone areas Photo courtesy of Kenya Red Cross Society Increase in livestock mortality & disease vector-borne, worms, RVF, pneumonia etc. reduced productivity & herd size Reduced food & milk available in households Increase in human disease with limited access to health services Destruction of pasture- reduced animal nutrition- reduced milk and meat production Displaced communities - movement is reduced, affects access to pasture Photo courtesy of Kenya Red Cross Society Destroyed infra-structure, reduced market access, decrease in IGA affecting access to food & drugs

12 Integrating nutrition into response options for pastoralists Include nutrition objectives, with measurable indicators and outputs in the design of livestock interventions; Link livestock programs to interventions addressing human health and hygiene; Integrate nutrition education, targeted at both men and women; Improved processing/preservation/storage of milk for use all year-round; Improve child and family care practices and reduce women s workload; Include simple tools in the programme design for measuring nutritional impact e.g. food consumption scores.

13 6. Response Options Priority Response activity: refer to LEGS Period of intervention & start-up timeline: use of seasonal calendars Do no harm analysis Fitting into DRR/Long-term & Resilience Building Responsibility

14 Identification of response activities Sectors Livestock health & feed Human nutrition, health & sanitation Access & availability of food Water harvesting & collection Conflict & cross-border issues Infra-structure Access to markets & market prices Community-based Early Warning + Implications for programming + Drawing on best practice in past analogue years + targeting hotspots & using on-going programming as entry points

15 Immediate response Human health Malaria & dengue fever control distribute nets & awareness Awareness on water treatment & filtration Awareness on sanitation at communal water points Mobile clinics for human & animal health (camels/donkeys for transportation + cold chain equipment) Livestock health Vaccinations should be happening now. Too late for new decisions due to 6-8 week start-up timeline so Prioritise vet. drugs stock taking/pre-position drugs Vector control/spraying Pre-position deworming drugs Map RVF vaccination/disease surveillance & EW Monitor migration patterns to guide targeting Livestock Insurance possibly unrealistic pastoralists like it but lacking investors advocacy to private sector

16 Immediate response Water De-silting through cash for work Awareness on water treatment & filtration Awareness on sanitation at communal water points NRM Management of pasture (reserves for dry season) Encourage fodder production Opportunities of using agro-past residue crops Reduce run-off & degradation by supporting fodder planting Conflict mitigation - coming into restocking period continue conflict mitigation activities, watch CEWARN for EW

17 Immediate response Access to markets Ensure HHs access to markets for food, input & services needs by maintaining infra-structure Access to food Pre-position food stocks Awareness raising to traders & households Monitor markets to inform food vs cash transfer Look at the opportunities of storage of surplus milk, meat Support poorer wealth groups to access bush products as main income source

18 Immediate response flood prone areas Identify hot spot areas based on impact of analogue El-Niño years Broadcast alerts awareness of communities in hotspot areas Encourage movement to higher ground/ facilitate movement in peak rains (Nov) Pre-position NFI kits for displaced households Longer-term measures to mitigate flooding CFW, FFW, FFA

19 Programming implications Pre-position stocks in field offices e.g. fuel, drugs, NFI Establish good communication networks with field Work with the community on early warning (ensuring they have the forecast) and DRR planning Coordination with partners on ground to ensure integrated multi-sectoral response & do no harm analysis Contingency planning for livestock disease etc. review budgets/write proposal/approach donors work through post disaster scenarios

20 Building into the longer term interventions Mapping of vet services & drugs Livestock insurance based on B.P. (ILRI) Construction of new water harvesting structures Improve infra-structure ensure culverts, bridges, roads, dam walls are maintained Stimulate market chains, especially for milk/ milk products and hides & skins. Include local procurement as part of the GFD (e.g. ECFF) Monitor global food pipelines

21 Advocacy messages Improve infra-structure Strengthen vet services through appropriate institutions, policy & legislation (AU-IBAR/FAO) Cross-border synchronised vaccinations (IGAD) Improve water harvesting opportunities with above-normal rain conditions. Ensure dams are ready & construct new water harvesting structures. Synchronise and map all water activities (WFP/FAO/IFAD)