Food Security & Nutrition Working Group

Transcription

1 Food Security & Nutrition Working Group Eastern and Central African Region

2 Current Conditions: Regional Highlights FSNWG Map: September 2013 vs September 2012 Continuing stable conditions & improving from long-term trends

3 Current Conditions Regional Highlights Sudan FEWS Main production areas in south-east and central with rainfall deficits of percent. Flash floods in fourteen states have damaged crop and food production. Tribal clashes continue in Darfur. Cereal prices will remain high in September DRC FAO/WFP SNSAP WFP Prices stable and indications of slight increase South Sudan FEWS WFP Tribal clashes in Jonjali State and Pibor county has left thousands displaced and FS conditions poor Rainfall conditions favorable, conflict has affected planting. Prices remain stable, but devaluation of currency against the USD is affecting purchasing Nutrition monitoring reflects continued high levels of acute malnutrition in Kasai Oriental and Occidental EFSA indicated very poor food security conditions as a result of ongoing conflict in North Kivu

4 Current Conditions Regional Highlights Somalia FSNAU fall in the food insecure population is the result of several successive seasons of average to above average rainfall, low food prices, increased livestock prices, increased livestock herd sizes, and sustained humanitarian response. Acute malnutrition rates continue to remain very high, especially in the South. Nearly average Gu grain harvest Burundi GTT 13% of the country believed to be in Crisis or Emergency the result of extreme, unaddressed poverty The humid plateau is the greatest concern but also populations in the lowlands of the east food production decreased by 7% compared to the same period in 2012 Kenya Nation FEWSNET KFSSG Maize yields reported good and should mean for stable prices. Water and pasture conditions good in north-east and should remains so through November VAT now charged on more basic food commodities increasing prices KFSSG long-rain assessment completed

5 Current Conditions: Hotspots & Watch HOTSPOT CAR (Conflict, Displacement, Access) FAO/WFP GTT IPC insecurity. WATCH RWANDA/BURUNDI/TANZANIA (Displacement) GoB Tens of thousand forced from Tanzania. More expected

6 Population in Food Insecurity Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phase 3 & 4) Country Trend Population in IPC Phase 3 & 4 Source Burundi 1,402,517 GTT Aug 13 CAR 1,286,000 GTT Jul 13 Djibouti 70,000 IPC/FSC Nov 12 DRC 6,350,000 GTT Jun 13 Ethiopia 2,400,000 (require food aid) GoE Mar 13 Kenya 0 KFFSG IPC Mar 13 Somalia 870,000 FSNAU Aug 13 South Sudan 1,959,726 LAF Mar 13 Sudan 4,236,000 TWG Aug13 Uganda 392,000 FSSG Jun 13 Total 18,966,243 Table: FSNWG Increasing numbers regionally decreases in Somalia but increases in Burundi & South Sudan

7 Outlook Outlook: October to December 2013 No Change from August: Conditions likely to remain seasonally comparable or better than last year. Continuing favourable climatic and security conditions enabling good rural production Generally good conditions for most of the region and likely to continue or improve with normal rainfall later this year Current areas of Crisis unlikely to deteriorate and may improve Concern remains focused on CAR as significant deterioration is predicted by December Underlying chronic conditions consider Burundi remain unaddressed and are likely to deteriorate rapidly when the climatic conditions turn. Seasonally normal and stable conditions continue

8 Nutrition Nutrition Situation Ethiopia: (DRMFSS Jan-Mar 2013) 4 survey results indicated a normal nutrition situation and were linked to good post Meher harvest season in Kenya: (KFSSG) High stunting levels in most parts of the country General decline in populations in need of assessment Somalia (FSNAU) 1 in 6 children acutely malnourished 3 out of 5 malnourished children are from South Somalia. 1 out of these 3 children are from Bay region GAM in IDPs is 17.3 %, RURAL 14.4 %, URBAN 10.1 Some improvement in nutrition situation but not to the same degree as food security conditions

9 Nutrition Somalia: Deyr 2012 vs Gu 2013 Post Deyr 2012/13 Post Gu 2013 Stabe to improving levels of acute malnutrition 9

10 Nutrition Kenya: GAM 2012 vs 2013 GAM 2012 GAM 2013 Low GAM but very high stunting levels

11 Climate Rainfall Rainfall from June to September was good for much of Sudan and Ethiopia, but insufficient in important agricultural production areas (mainly in Sudan and to a certain extent in Eritrea) Gu rainfall ceased early in parts of Southern Somalia Better rainfall in the latter half of this season but insufficient for crop production parts of Sudan and Eritrea

12 Climate Vegetation NDVI: July 2013 Sudan: late start, below average rainfall and high temperatures affecting main production areas. Similar year is 2011 (25%< average production). Eritrea: satellite info suggests vegetation recovery despite late start Continue monitoring crop progress

13 Climate Current Conditions: Sea Surface Temperature Neutral SSTs off East African Coast Near-average Temperatures in central equatorial Pacific Ocean

14 Climate Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook LEGEND GREEN (Zone III &IV) Increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall YELLOW (Zone II) Likelihood near normal to below normal rainfall GREY (Zone I& V) The area is usually dry during September to December 2013 season ICPAC: GHA Climate Outlook Sep to Dec 2013 Higher likelihood of normal to above rainfall in the west of the region and normal to below for other areas

15 Prices Global Food Price Index The Global Food Price Index decreased by 1.9 percent in August compared to its July value and by 5.1 percent to the August 2012 value. This fourth consecutive monthly drop, was largely driven by decreasing prices for grains and oils. International maize prices slumped in August (-14%) in anticipation of significantly improved global supplies in 2013/14. Wheat prices changed little (-2 to -3%) compared to July Export prices of rice declined with the release of public stocks in main exporting countries. Source: FAO GIEWS, September 2013 Global Food Price Index declined for the fourth consecutive month in August 2013, mainly due to significantly decreasing prices for cereals.

16 Prices GHA Region Food Prices Trends Ethiopia: Prices of cereals continued to strengthen in August as the lean season approaches its peak in Meher producing areas (GIEWS, September 2013). Staple food prices are likely to show some slight declines from October to December due to improvement in market supply from the Meher harvest (FEWSNET, August 2013). Tanzania: Overall, maize prices are currently below or around their levels of 12 months earlier in most markets. Mix trends were registered between unimodal and bi-modal areas (GIEWS, September 2013). Uganda: Prices of maize stabilized in August after increasing in July in the Kampala and in Lira markets, as the bulk of the first season harvest increased local supply (GIEWS, Sep 2013). Kenya: Prices of maize were stable in August due to the on-going 2013 long rains harvest in some key cropping areas and relevant cross-border imports from neighbouring Tanzania during the last few months (GIEWS, Sep 2013). Somalia: Prices of locally-grown maize and sorghum declined in August as the newly-harvested 2013 Gu crops increased supplies. Prices of imported rice also declined in August following increased domestic supply and improved functioning of main ports (GIEWS, September 2013). Cereal prices continue to seasonally increase in Ethiopia and pending the main 2013 Prices stable elsewhere, except in Somalia, where prices declined with the new harvest.

17 Refugees Registered Refugees / Asylum Seekers Country Refugees / Asylum Seekers (as of MAR 1, 2013) Updates (June- August 2013) Kenya 607, ,972 Ethiopia 388, ,038 Somalia 10,774 No update Tanzania 101,540 68,197 Burundi 48,918 44,390 Rwanda 66,989 73,405 Uganda 239, ,514 South Sudan 202, ,172 Sudan 159,877 No update Djibouti 22,667 23,125 Eritrea 3,614 No update Source: UNHCR Approximately 1.85M Refugees and Asylum Seekers in the Region

18 Refugees Country Updates Ethiopia 1,056 Sudanese refugees arrived in Assossa between 22 nd -28 th of August because of ongoing conflict in the Blue Nile Region contingency plan reactivated for possible influx of 10,000 refugees up to the end of the year Rwanda Continuous influx from DRC; reasons for fleeing mentioned by the new arrivals: 1) targeted attacks towards Kinyarwanda speakers 2) anticipation of renewed fighting 3) reunification with family members already living in refugee camps in Rwanda Ongoing problems with congestion in the current camps Plan for opening of a new camp (Mugombwa) in the South province and is anticipated to accommodate up to 20,000 refugees Source: UNHCR

19 Refugees Nutrition/Food Security Issues Uganda September: refugee consultation/sensitization for cash in West-Nile and Kiryandongo settlements (UNHCR/WFP/OPM) Nutrition surveys Just completed in Bambasi (Ethiopia) and Dadaab (Kenya) results are following Food pipeline: shortfalls Important shortfalls over the next 6 months in Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Djibouti alert sent to countries for joint fundraising Uganda: additional funds needed because of emergency influx Source: UNHCR

20 Refugees Uganda Emergency update (as of 4 th September) Background: Early July 2013 more than 66,000 fled to Uganda as a result of renewed fighting launched by Ugandan rebel group ADF-NALU against FARDC in the areas of Beni in North Kivu. The current population at Bubukwanga Transit Centre is 21,657 individuals. Relocations from Bubukwanga Transit Centre to Kyangwali continue with the next convoy carrying some 1,200 individuals on 12 th of September. About 400 Congolese refugees are still camped out in Ntoroko District border area.

21 Response Analysis Climate Services Require Two Types of Information (Mungai & Stigter, 1995) 1. Long-term climate forecasts for agriculture useful for strategic agricultural management decisions designed to: Avoid, mitigate or exploit predictable/probable weather or weather induced conditions 2. Short-term forecasts for tactical use (to address seasonal production factors avoidance, protection and improvement University of Nairobi ISO 9001: Certified

22 Response Analysis Proposed Farmer Information Package 1. Seasonal weather prediction (lead time/frequent updates a) When are the rains coming? Where? b) What kind of rains are expected? Above or below normal? c) The duration of the rains? Days/Weeks? d) The distribution of the rains within the season? 2. Farm inputs information a) Quality seeds b) Fertilizer c) Others? 3. Markets/prices information 4. Cost effective communication between all stakeholders feedback 5. Food movements between surplus/deficit areas 6. Gov t/private Sector: Food importation 7. M & E

23 Response Analysis Technical Information in areas below 1. Soil & water management 2. Selection of appropriate crop varieties 3. Manipulate planting dates 4. Manipulate spacing 5. Mulching 6. Cover cropping 7. Pest/weed management 8. Alteration in cropping patterns 9. Crop diversification 10. Nutrient management/change fertilizer application 11. Agro-forestry 12. Decrease number of livestock 13. Diversify/change/supplement 14. Insurance 15. Others?

24 Upcoming Events Next FSNWG Meeting: ISS, Nairobi Thursday, October 17, 2013 No Regrets: Surge Responses Nairobi, Kenya October 2 Early Warning Systems Djibouti September Kenya (Chronic Pilot) late September IPC Level 2 Training (EN/FR) October Nutrition Quarterly Nairobi, Kenya October 9 Better Market Monitoring (MAS) Nairobi, Kenya late October Livestock/Pastoral Nairobi, Kenya November 19

25 Thank you for the samosas, Regina!