Market. Highlights. September 2012

Transcription

1 Market Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia September 212 Issued October 18 th, 212 Highlights Inflation: the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined slightly in North SoSh areas but remained steady in the rest of the country. Annual inflation rates are significantly lower than their levels a year ago in South-Central but relatively stable in the both northern zones. The cost of living is significantly higher compared to the base period (March 27) in SoSh areas; it is moderately elevated in SlSh areas. Exchange rates between local currencies to the USD remained relatively stable. Compared to the same period a year ago, SlSh lost ground to the USD, whereas SoSh appreciated considerably. The appreciation of the SoSh is attributed to increased supply of dollars through humanitarian interventions, improved economic activities and inward investments, particularly in Mogadishu. On the other hand, the weakened SlSh is mainly due to increased supply and circulation of new currency notes. Local grain prices were mixed; increased in the Sorghum Belt, decreased significantly in the maize basket regions of Juba and Shabelle; remained steady in all other regions. Below average Gu 212 crop production and downscaling of food distribution were the main factors that contributed to the cereal price inflation over the past month. Increased market supply of maize from Gu harvest in riverine areas mitigated cost of cereals in the Shabelle and Juba regions. Compared to a year ago, cereal prices are considerably lower in the South and Central zones and more stable in the North. Prices of most imported commodities were generally stable in September 212. Compared to the same period last year, imported commodity prices are significantly reduced. The decline in prices of imported commodities is mainly attributed to the strengthened SoSh, improved Mogadishu Port operations and humanitarian assistance. Livestock prices were mixed, exhibiting slight monthly increases in most markets but decreasing marginally in Shabelle. Compared to the same month last year, livestock prices are significantly higher across all regions. The annual price appreciation was mainly due to improved body conditions, low supply of saleable stock and high export demand. Labour wages were mixed - holding steady in most regions but reducing in Juba on the backdrop of normal seasonal decline in agricultural labour opportunities. Labour wages are significantly higher compared to their levels a year ago in most markets. This Market Data Update is a monthly report that presents a compilation of tabulated graphical market information produced regularly as part of the monthly monitoring process. The weekly price data is collected from 47 main markets throughout Somalia since 199. Market analysis is an integral part of all of FSNAU s Annual Food Security Projections and seasonal technical reports (Technical Reports on FSNAU Post Gu and Deyr Analysis). This data is available online on (ToT) between labour wage and cereals were generally stable in September. The purchasing power has improved when compared to a year ago due to lower cereal prices, improved goat prices and higher labour wages (Table1). Technical and Managerial Support Funding Agencies Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

2 Regional Market Highlights Regional Highlights Juba Valley: Local cereal and imported food prices decreased slightly since August 212, while the value of livestock went up. Prices are significantly lower than a year ago for imported food and local cereals, but significantly higher for livestock. Annual comparisons of ToT between labor and cereals indicate significant improvement in purchasing power. The ToT (1Kg/daily wage rate) sustained its previous month s level. Sorghum Belt: Sorghum prices increased while imported food prices and livestock remained stable. Prices of imports and local cereals are significantly lower compared to their levels a year ago while those of livestock are significantly higher. The ToT between labour and cereals remained stable since August 212. However, when compared to a year ago, the ToT is almost 4-times higher (14kg/daily wage) in Bay region and 1-2 times higher in the rest of the Sorghum Belt regions. Shabelle Valley: Prices of livestock exhibited slight decreases in September while imported food price trends were mixed. Reduced cereal prices enhanced the monthly ToT by 2 percent (currently standing at 12kg for a day s labour). Prices of most imported commodities and cereals are significantly lower when compared to the same month a year ago. Livestock prices, on the other hand, are significantly higher over the same period. Central: Prices remained generally stable over September. Annual comparisons indicate significant decreases in the prices of all items except livestock, which are significantly higher. ToT (rice/ local goat) decreased marginally but is significantly elevated when compared to the same month last year, currently standing at 61kg/local goat. Northeast: Slight monthly reduction recorded for the prices of imported food and sorghum while livestock prices appreciated. Annual price comparisons show significant decline for imported commodities and local cereals while those of livestock are higher. ToT (rice/ local goat) reduced marginally over the month of September but is significantly higher when compared to the same month last year, currently standing at 79kg/local goat. Northwest: Prices of yellow maize and imports increased marginally in September while those of livestock remained stable. Annual price comparison indicates slightly lower prices for imports and cereals and considerably inflated prices for livestock. The monthly ToT between local white sorghum and wages decreased by 1kg from the previous month but is significantly higher than the same month in 211, currently equivalent to about 8kg/daily wage rate. Banadir: In the last month, the prices remained generally stable. With the exception of highly valued livestock, prices of imported and locally produced food are significantly below their levels a year ago. ToT cereal (maize/ labour wage) reduced by 1 kg from 12 kgs a month ago, but is twice as high as the same month in 211. Table 1: ly and Annual Changes in ToT: Mt of Cereals (kg) per Daily Labour Wage Rate Region Cereal used 11-Sep 12-Aug 12-Sep ly change Annual change (kg/daily wage) (kg/daily wage) (kg/daily wage) (%) (%) Banadir White Maize % 83% Bay Red Sorghum % 367% Bakool Red Sorghum 4 2% % Gedo Red Sorghum % 6% Hiraan White Maize % 4% Juba White Maize % 1% Shabelle White Maize % 14% Northeast Red Sorghum % % Northwest White Sorghum % 33% Central Red Sorghum 7 7 % 4% 2

3 International Market Highlights Diesel: Crude oil prices in Abu Dhabi (Dubai), the main source of Somalia s oil imports, continued to surge through September, rising by 2 percent, to settle at 111/barell 1. According to the International Energy Agency s Oil Market Report (October 212), investor expectations of new economic stimulus measures in the Euro Zone and the perception of increased possibility of war 2 in the Middle East were the main factors driving the crude oil price 3. USD per Litre Figure 1: Diesel Prices: Dubai, Mogadishu and Bossaso International Mogadishu Bossasso In Somalia Port Cities (Bossaso and Mogadishu), diesel prices remained stable when compared to August 212 but declined significantly (29-36%) over the last year as a result of stronger domestic currency (SoSh) and increased supplies following opening up of Mogadishu Port. The annual price decline is also supported by price differential analysis showing that the gap between domestic diesel and global crude oil prices, have shrunk over the past year (September Mogadishu (33%), Bossaso (16%); September Mogadishu (27%), Bossaso (%)). The latter indicates significant influence of local factors on the imported commodity prices on domestic markets (Figure 1) Sep-8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Source: FAO Source: Statistics, FAO FEWSNET Statistics and FSNAU and FSNAU Market Price Market Monitoring Price System, Monitoring 212. System, 212 Figure 2: Rice Prices: Bangkok FOB, Mogadishu and Bossaso Markets Sep-1 Dec-1 International Mogadishu Bossasso Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Rice: The benchmark Thai rice export price (Thai A1 Super 1/ B) 4 rose marginally in September, averaging USD 4 per tonne; but this price is somewhat elevated (9%) compared to the the same month last year. According to the IGC Grain Market Report (September 212), state intervention programme still remains the key element in Thai rice export price determination. Prices of imported rice in Bossaso and Mogadishu ports in August declined by 3-7 percent frm the previous month. The decline was remarkably significant (34-48%) when compared to the same month a year ago, supported by stronger domestic currency and improved port operations (Mogadishu). The gap between internatational and domestic rice markets narrowed down in both towns; from 9-81 percent in September 211 to percent in September this year (Figure 2). Sugar: The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 284 points in September, down 13 points (4.2 percent) from August, and 9 points (2 percent) from September last year. The decline in sugar quotations reflects improved sugarcane harvest in Brazil, the world s largest sugar exporter, and improved crop prospects in some key producing regions including India, China, and Thailand. USD per Kilogram USD per Kilogram Sep 8 Sep-8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sept-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Source: FAO Statistics, FEWSNET and FSNAU Market Price Monitoring System, 212 Dec 8 Sep-1 Figure 3: Sugar Prices: International, Mogadishu and Bossaso Markets Mar 9 Jun 9 Sep 9 Dec-1 Interna@onal Mogadishu Bossasso Dec 9 Mar 1 Jun 1 Source: International Sugar Organization, FEWSNET and FSNAU Market Price Monitoring System, 212 Sep 1 Dec 1 Mar 11 Jun 11 Jun-11 Sep 11 Dec 11 Dec-11 Mar 12 Jun 12 Jun -12 Sep 12 Sep -12 ly sugar prices increased somewhat (1%) in Bossasso but remained steady in Mogadishu. Compared to the same month last year, these prices have dipped significantly (3-4%) mainly due to higher supply through commercial imports and humanitarian assistance (Figure 3). Cooking Oil: the FAO Oils/Fats Price Index 6 averaged 22 points in September, down 1 point (or.4 percent) from August. While prices for soy, rapeseed and sunflower oil remained firm during most of September, palm oil quotations dropped for the second consecutive month reflecting seasonally high production, which, combined with weak demand, has led to a marked rise in stocks. International price transmission in cooking oil is not explicitly evident in port cities of Somalia. Specifically, vegetable oil prices remained relatively stable over the previous month in Bosasso and Mogadishu but showed a significant annual decline (12-31%) on the backdrop of on-going humanitarian interventions and improved port operations. 1 Weekly Abu Dhabi Murban Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel), US Energy Information Administration, 2 Rising geopolitical tensions over the Iranian nuclear program has seen the revival of the oil price risk premium 3 International Energy Agency (IEA) ly Oil Market Report, September, 212; report.org 4 Main cereal import in Somalia The World Food Situation: The FAO Food Price Index October Ibid 3

4 National Trends: CPI, Exchange Rates, and Relative Purchasing Power Figure 4: between wage rates and selected cereals 2 Kg Cereal per Daily Wage Rate TOT Labour to Sorghum (Sorghum Belt) TOT Labour to Rice (NW) TOT Labour to Maize (Juba & Shabelle TOT Labour to Rice (Central & NE) * Purchasing power was generally stable Figure : ly Exchange Rate for Selected Regions (SoSh and SlSh to USD) 4 8 Baidoa Bossasso Galkayo Mogadishu Hargeisa 8 SoSh per US Dollar Price per Kg (SoSH) Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 SlSh per US Dollar Dec-11 Jun-12 *Local currencies largely stable against the greenback (USD) in September 212. Figure 6: ly Trends in Consumer Price Index (CPI, March 27=1) CPI Mar 7 Oct8 Jun 9 Mar 1 Jun 1 Sep 1 Dec 1 Mar 11 June 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 CPI Central CPI North(Sosh) CPI North(SlSh) CPI South CPI somalia (SoShs) *Inflation declined marginally in North SoSh but remained steady in all other zones Figure 7: ly Trends in Local 3, 27, 24, 21, 18, 1, 12, 9, 6, 3, Tech Series/FSNB Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Juba Valley(White Maize 1 kg) Shabelle Valley(White Maize 1 kg) NE (Red Sorghum 1 kg) SorghumBelt(Red Sorghum 1 kg) Central(Red Sorghum 1 kg) NW (White Sorghum 1 kg) Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov Price per Kg (SLSH) *Trends in local cereal prices were mixed in September 212 4

5 Regional analysis: Juba Regions - Average (23-7) Nominal Price Real (Deflated) Price Same -year avrg (23-7) Diesel 1 litre 13,96 4,821 33,893 33,36 1,39-19% -3% 137% Imported Red Rice 1kg 9,149 2,87 18,36 16,7 7,76-3% -7% 83% Petrol 1 litre 16,31 36,87 3,71 34,214 1,947-7% -4% 19% Sugar 9,8 37,786 22,87 22,143 1,286-41% -3% 144% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 19,71 7,2 37, 38,714 18,8-32% 3% 98% Wheat Flour 1kg 8,69 23,643 17,143 16,286 7,39-31% -% 89% Wheat Grain 1kg,896 2, Red Sorghum 1kg 2,199-6, 7, - - 8% 218% White Maize 1kg 2,33 17, 9,36 8,4 3,678-3% -16% 246% Camel Local Quality (Head) 3,34,966 7,492,917 9,396,2 1,127,83 4,749,821 3% 8% 23% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 1,663,664 2,28, 3,636,2 3,724,2 1,746,691 63% 2% 124% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 6,419 18,643 19,893 18,67 8,627 % -6% 19% Goat Export Quality (Head) 431,9 978,429 1,833,71 1,82, 86,117 87% % 323% Goat Local Quality (Head) 3,46 628,929 1,22,37 1,182,893 4,714 88% -3% 287% Charcoal kg 28,28 63,7 76,786 82,893 38,779 3% 8% 191% Cowpeas 1 kg,82 33,37 22,71 2,464 9,498-39% -9% 2% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 37,846 62,71 93,2 82,17 38,411 32% -12% 117% Firewood Bundle 2,4 6,71 9, 9,17 4,171 39% 1% 279% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 21,42 89,71 67, 72,36 33,687-19% 7% 242% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 16,243 3,24 22,389 22,332 1,374-26% % 37% Cement kg - 343, ,143 29,78 136,21-1% -1% - Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre - 38, ,67 284, ,47-21% -1% - Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga ,271 13,37 122,143 7,189-3% -6% - Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm - 2, 1, 1, 6,93-2% % - Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre - 31,87 34, 34,7 16,199 9% 2% - Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m - 7, 38,7 31, ,841-4% 2% - Roofing Nails 1Kg - 84,286 87,87 793, ,26-1% -2% - Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft - 327, 26, 276,7 129,74-1% 4% - Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm ,83 66,667 31, % - Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % 4% -37% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % 1% 12% Consumer Price Index % -1% - Purchasing Power Index % 1% - * Data has been collected since May 21 * Data has been collected since May 21 Figure 8: Imported commodity prices compared to exchange rates Figure 9: Trends in wage rates, staple cereal prices and relative purchasing power 2 Price per Unit (SoSh) SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR SOSH Labour Cereal (Maize) Labour/Cereal TOT Relative Purchasing power wage to cereal (Kg/daily Wage) 2 2 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Figure 1: Goat Local Quality Figure 11: Exchange Rate Figure 12: Water Drum Figure 13: Firewood Bundle

6 Regional analysis: Sorghum Belt Regions (Bay, Bakool, Gedo and Hiran) - Average (23-7) Nominal Price Real (Deflated) Price Same -year avrg (23-7) Diesel 1 litre 12,782 42,841 31,773 31,818 14,824-26% % 149% Imported Red Rice 1kg 9,222 27,191 19,44 19,4 9,67-28% 1% 112% Petrol 1 litre 14,91 4,23 33, 33,23 1,623-16% % 13% Sugar 9,46 38,23 23,273 23,432 1,89-38% 1% 148% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 19,24 6,23 4,864 43,727 2,49-27% -% 13% Wheat Flour 1kg 8,817 23,9 17,99 18,68 8,374-2% 1% 1% Wheat Grain 1kg 4,7 13,271 11,79 7,2 3,277-46% -38% 7% Red Sorghum 1kg 2,1 12,713 7,48 7,898 3,64-38% 6% 29% White Maize 1kg 2,623 14,4 9,1 8,864 4,7-37% -3% 238% Camel Local Quality (Head) 3,426,24 6,722,727 12,796,7 12,9,9 6,76,626 93% 1% 278% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 1,39,11 1,84,62 3,823,438 3,93,7 1,84,333 11% 3% 191% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 7,4 28,114 31,68 32,91 14,92 14% 2% 32% Goat Export Quality (Head) 411,64 1,237,4 1,716,818 1,788, ,827 4% 4% 33% Goat Local Quality (Head) 26,3 67,227 1,243,23 1,292,364 66,9 91% 4% 388% Charcoal kg 37,12 114, 14, ,636 67,27 26% 2% 287% Cowpeas 1 kg 6,9 44,219 21,844 22,63 1,248 -% 1% 262% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 19,839 87,841 87,79 91,477 42,86 4% 4% 361% Firewood Bundle 1,626,4 6,4 6,318 2,863 16% -2% 289% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 23,23 84,464 66,42 6,833 3,778-22% % 183% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 1,992 3,418 22,2 22,34 1,378-27% % 4% Cement kg - 337,83 331,7 314, ,67-7% -% - Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre - 284,722 26,833 24, ,112-11% -3% - Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga , , 174,7 81,781-22% % - Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm - 1,7 11,7 11,7,411 9% % - Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre - 2,4 4,23 4,7 2,263 4% -1% - Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m - 294,2 34, 297, 139,22 1% -2% - Roofing Nails 1Kg - 814,2 766,667 79,222 3,999-7% -1% - Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft - 223, ,46 293, ,46 31% 1% - Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm - 11,7 11,2 123,7 7,943 22% 12% - Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Sorghum(Kg)) % -1% 17% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Sorghum(Kg)) % -2% 24% Consumer Price Index % -1% - Purchasing Power Index % 1% - * Data has been collected since May 21 * Data has been collected since May 21 Figure 14: Imported commodity prices compared to exchange rates Figure 1: Trends in wage rates, staple cereal prices and relative purchasing power Labour Cereal (Sorghum) Labour/Cereal TOT 2 Price per Unit (SoSh) 6 4 SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR SOSH Relative Purchasing power wage to cereal (Kg/daily Wage) 2 2 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Figure 16: Goat Local Quality Figure 17: Exchange Rate Figure 18: Water Drum Figure 19: Firewood Bundle 6

7 Regional analysis: Shabelle Regions - Average (23-7) Nominal Price Real (Deflated) Price Same -year avrg (23-7) Diesel 1 litre 1,73 4, 29,48 3,48 14,186-24% 3% 184% Imported Red Rice 1kg 7,761 26,42 14,917 14,917 6,897-44% % 92% Petrol 1 litre 12,493 38,42 29,83 31, 14,674-18% 6% 12% Sugar 7,89 36,87 22,83 21, 9,984-42% -% 172% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 14,666 1,667 36,333 34,48 16,62-33% -% 13% Wheat Flour 1kg 7,88 2,333 1, 14,792 6,838-42% -% 9% Wheat Grain 1kg 2,873 23, 7,334 8,333 3,88-64% 14% 19% Red Sorghum 1kg 2,427 17,742 9,3 8,311 3,798-3% -13% 242% White Maize 1kg 2,362 1,91 6,23,238 2,37-1% -2% 122% Camel Local Quality (Head) 4,61,116 13,32, 16,93, 1,6, 7,316,792 2% -8% 284% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 1,243,496 3,29, 4,7, 4,83, 2,267,667 1% 3% 289% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre,82 19,83 22,688 21,292 9,887 9% -6% 319% Goat Export Quality (Head),666 1,431,87 1,966,2 1,76,2 823,637 23% -11% 247% Goat Local Quality (Head) 342,849 1,3,833 1,326,667 1,24,83 88,339 21% -% 266% Charcoal kg 37, , ,361 17,43,27-7% -8% 189% Cowpeas 1 kg,832 49,388 19, 19,322 8,963-61% 1% 231% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 21,681,87 64,37 64, 3,13 1% % 197% Firewood Bundle 2,21 4,833 6,42 6,417 2,91 33% 6% 218% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 2,26 7,78 3,62 3,642 2,6-24% % 168% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 16,2 3,788 22,92 22,88 1,98-26% 1% 4% Cement kg - 34, 214,2 22, 13,87-28% 3% - Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre - 7, 7, 692, 324,74-8% -1% - Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga ,6 86,9 86,9 4,682-37% % - Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm - 12, 12,7 12,7,88 6% % - Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre - 4,938 1,63,62 23,64 1% -2% - Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m - 33, 23,833 22,83 118,13-24% 7% - Roofing Nails 1Kg - 86, 9, 8, 272,173-1% -3% - Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft - 6,1 47,7 46,7 21,827-22% -2% - Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm - 6, 62,667 76,667 3,89 18% 22% - Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % 2% 34% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % 18% 6% Consumer Price Index % -1% - Purchasing Power Index % 1% - * Data has been collected since May 21 * Data has been collected since May 21 Figure 2: Imported commodity prices compared to exchange rates Figure 21: Trends in wage rates, staple cereal prices and relative purchasing power 2 Price per Unit (SoSh) SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR SOSH Labour Cereal (Maize) Labour/Cereal TOT Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) 2 2 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Figure 22: Goat Local Quality Figure 23: Exchange Rate Figure 24: Water Drum Figure 2: Firewood Bundle 7

8 Regional analysis:banadir Region - Average (23-7) Nominal Price Real (Deflated) Price Same -year avrg (23-7) Diesel 1 litre 1,27 38,83 26,6 26,667 12,48-3% % 16% Imported Red Rice 1kg 8,366 23,333 14,167 14,313 6,613-39% 1% 71% Petrol 1 litre 11,2 3,42 26,133 26,87 12, -24% 3% 139% Sugar 6,87 34,292 19,767 19,667 9,124-43% -1% 186% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 14,3 49,12 33,917 34,83 1,886-31% % 138% Wheat Flour 1kg 7,2 21,2 13,1 13,48 6,212-37% 3% 86% Wheat Grain 1kg 3,966 19, 11,673 11,283,192-41% -3% 184% Red Sorghum 1kg 2,31 17,272,437,914 2,674-66% 9% 1% White Maize 1kg 2,484 13,273 8,82 9,96 4,166-31% 3% 266% Camel Local Quality (Head),26,666 1,, Cattle Local Quality (Head) 2,74, 3,42, Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 4,716 19,292 21,67 22,2 1,336 1% 3% 372% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,, 2,6, 2,6, 1,219,382 73% % - Goat Local Quality (Head) 61, 1,6, 2,8, 2,68,7 97,29 2% -1% 239% Charcoal kg 1, 142, ,33 17,83 82,24 23% -4% 76% Cowpeas 1 kg 4,911 8,749 19,16 19,892 9,23-66% 4% 3% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 9, 83,12 14,667 12, 47,976 23% -2% 72% Firewood Bundle 42,1 6,2 7,737 7,629 3,478 22% -1% -82% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 19,33 67,48 6,2 8,12 27,162-14% 3% 198% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 16,36 3,24 22,444 22,27 1,466-26% % 38% Cement kg - 248,32 182, ,22 83,493-28% -2% - Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre - 298, , 286, ,199-4% 1% - Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga ,12 88,38 88,8 41, -39% % - Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm - 9,938 1,767 1,7 4,942 8% % - Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre - 47, 3,333 3,667 16,629-24% 1% - Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m - 312, 187, 187, 87,843-4% % - Roofing Nails 1Kg - 9,42 48,83 478,42 224,31-2% % - Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft - 12,87 123,13 123,467 7,81-19% % - Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm - 91,667 9, 9, 44,48 4% % - Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % -% -3% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % -4% -7% Consumer Price Index % -1% - Purchasing Power Index % 1% - * Data has been collected since May 21 * Data has been collected since May 21 Figure 26: Bakara: Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate Figure 27: Bakara: Trends in Wage Rates, Staple and Relative Purchasing Power Labour Cereal (Maize) Labour/Cereal TOT 2 Price per Unit (SoSh) SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 2 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 SOSH Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) Figure 28: Goat Local Quality Figure 29: Exchange Rate Figure 3: Wheat Flour Figure 31: Fresh Camel Milk 8

9 Regional analysis: Central Regions - Average (23-7) Nominal Price Real (Deflated) Price Same -year avrg (23-7) Diesel 1 litre 12,138 4,62 3,62 32,1 1,82-21% % 16% Imported Red Rice 1kg 8,69 32, 2,8 2,6 9,628-37% -1% 139% Petrol 1 litre 13,118 36,3 26,6 27,4 12,839-24% 3% 19% Sugar 9,61 39, 24,84 24,9 11,68-36% % 16% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 18,777 62,9 46,2 46, 21,622-27% % 14% Wheat Flour 1kg 8,437 2,1 17, 17,1 7,97-32% 1% 13% Wheat Grain 1kg,12 2, 1,667 1, 6,983-27% -4% 193% Red Sorghum 1kg 4,918 19,3 11,82 11,9,19-39% 1% 142% White Maize 1kg 4,944 2,72 13,92 14,1 6,8-32% 1% 18% Camel Local Quality (Head) 2,3,77 7,82, 9,87, 1,32, 4,87,69 32% % 348% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 1,71,12 2,4, Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 13,218 46,1 34,32 32, 1,271-29% -% 146% Goat Export Quality (Head) 363,34 1,437, 1,16,667 1,2, ,67 6% % 318% Goat Local Quality (Head) 271, ,4 1,28, 1,266, 97,966 34% -1% 366% Charcoal kg 4,827 17,7 173, 177, 83,719 1% 3% 224% Cowpeas 1 kg 7,238,3 24,6 24,7 11,64-6% 1% 241% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 29,372 89, 86, 83,7 39,448-6% -3% 18% Firewood Bundle 3,74 34, 34, 34, 1,9 % % 88% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 27,89 96, 89, 89, 41,928-7% -1% 219% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 16,34 3,774 22,18 22,2 1,298-28% % 3% Cement kg - 363,7 284,2 282, ,438-22% -1% - Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre - 421,2 384,8 372, 17,66-12% -3% - Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga , 12,2 122,27 7,641-26% -2% - Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm - 16,7 1,2 1,7 7,337-6% 3% - Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre - 1,6 4,2 47,9 22,19-7% 6% - Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m - 33,4 273,2 292, 138,24-11% 7% - Roofing Nails 1Kg - 83,2 63,2 68, ,69-17% % - Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft - 13,6 17,7 113,7 3,61-26% 6% - Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm - 134, 134, 134, 63,177 % % - Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % -2% 19% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % % 9% Camel (Head)/Cereal (Kg) % 6% 87% Consumer Price Index % -1% - Purchasing Power Index % 1% - * Data has been collected since May 21 * Data has been collected since May 21 Figure 32: Imported commodity prices compared to exchange rates Figure 33: Trends in wage rates, staple cereal prices and relative purchasing power Labour Cereal (Rice) Labour/Cereal TOT 2 Price per Unit (SoSh) 6 4 SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 2 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 SOSH Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) Figure 34: Goat Local Quality Figure 3: Exchange Rate Figure 36: Water Drum Figure 37: Firewood Bundle 9

10 Regional analysis: Northeast Regions - Average (23-7) Consumer Price Index % -% - Purchasing Power Index % % - * Data has been collected since May 21 * Data has been collected since May 21 Nominal Price Real (Deflated) Price Same -year avrg (23-7) Diesel 1 litre 1,166 36,12 2, 24,7 1,934-31% -3% 143% Imported Red Rice 1kg 7,431 2, 18,87 18,63 7,93-29% -4% 143% Petrol 1 litre 1,9 31,37 23,2 21,87 9,63-3% -6% 1% Sugar 8,637 34,313 22,7 22,62 9,987-34% -1% 162% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 17,828 63,938 43,313 43,188 19,1-32% % 142% Wheat Flour 1kg 7,8 23, 17,438 16,87 7,423-28% -3% 116% Wheat Grain 1kg 7,2 36,7 23,87 22, 9,931-39% -6% 21% Red Sorghum 1kg 7,1 3, 23,2 22,12 9,764-26% -% 29% White Maize 1kg 6,12 22,2 21, 19, 8,94-12% -9% 217% Camel Local Quality (Head) 3,47, 13,62, 1,993,7 16,131,2 7,191,83 19% 1% 3% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 1,747,916 8,2, 7,87, Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 1,44 41, 41,62 39,292 17,418 -% -6% 14% Goat Export Quality (Head) 43,28 1,46,2 1,42, 1,2, 679,81 8% 7% 24% Goat Local Quality (Head) 389,749 1,266,87 1,393,7 1,42, 63,217 12% 2% 266% Charcoal kg 98,98 37, 367, 362, 161,16 1% -1% 266% Cowpeas 1 kg 1,19 64, 39,167 38,667 17,139-4% -1% 279% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 43, , 122, 122, 4,1 6% % 179% Firewood Bundle 6,8 3,938 46,2 4, 19,963 2% -3% 62% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 31,83 97, 86,87 87,813 39, -1% 1% 176% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 16,718 31,16 2,969 21, 9,263-33% % 26% Cement kg - 28, ,813 19,688 84,916-26% -2% - Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre - 6,87 41,188 44,62 196,347-13% 7% - Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga ,7 17,87 176,7 78,72-29% % - Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm - 12, 12, 12,,473 % % - Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre - 42, 39, 39,688 17,94-7% % - Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m - 197,37 17, 19,438 7,983-19% 1% - Roofing Nails 1Kg - 469,63 86,87 83,438 26,18 24% -1% - Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft - 24,63 168,7 168,12 74,86-3% % - Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm - 28, , ,146 99,387-2% -1% - Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % 4% 1% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % 7% % Figure 38: Imported commodity prices compared to exchange rates Figure 39: Trends in wage rates, staple cereal prices and relative purchasing power Labour Cereal (Rice) Labour/Cereal TOT 2 Price per Unit (SoSh) 6 4 SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR SOSH Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) 2 2 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Figure 4: Goat Local Quality Figure 41: Exchange Rate Figure 42: Water Drum Figure 43: Firewood Bundle 1

11 Regional analysis: Northwest Regions - Average (23-7) Nominal Price Real (Deflated) Price Same -year avrg (23-7) Diesel 1 litre 3,873 6,67 6,88 7,4,83 % 2% 82% Imported Red Rice 1kg 3,23,22 4,8 4,99 3,932-4% 9% 4% Petrol 1 litre 4,6 7,9 7,9 7,29,78 3% 3% 6% Sugar 3,392 7,2 6,4 6, 4,784-14% % 78% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 7,43 11,9 12, 12,76 1,24 7% 2% 69% Wheat Flour 1kg 3,87 4,4 4,42 4,17 3,27-8% -6% 3% Wheat Grain 1kg 2,94 3,97 3,488 2,844 2,196-28% -18% 36% White Sorghum 1kg 2,1 3,64 3,44 3, 2,72-4% 2% 66% Yellow Maize 1kg 2,117 3,4 3,74 3,73 2,91 8% % 76% Camel Local Quality (Head) 1,64,62 1,749,667 2,666,333 2,649, 2,138,263 1% -1% 6% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 81,91 1,191,667 1,83, 1,89,333 1,2,841 9% 2% 133% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 4,3 4,91,2,4 4,29 1% -2% 2% Goat Export Quality (Head) 171, , 49,3 422,2 34,714 29% 3% 146% Goat Local Quality (Head) 14, 224,8 273,1 286,27 23,991 27% % 97% Charcoal kg 2,381 34,3 4,3 4,3 32,432 17% % 98% Cowpeas 1 kg 4,921 9,667 9,63 9,388 7,478-3% -2% 91% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 28,17 31, 39,2 4,4 32,12 3% 3% 42% Firewood Bundle 4,92 2,833 3,333 3,333 2,91 18% % -32% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 16,9 23,688 2, 2,63 2,132 6% % 48% Exchange Rate (Somaliland Shilling per USD) 6,646,76 6, 6,31 4,998 1% -4% -% Cement kg - 47,168 4,7 3,1 42,768 13% -3% - Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre - 87,6 83,8 87,1 7,2-1% 4% - Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga 26-43,7 48,62,63 4,313 14% 3% - Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm - 2,894 3,2 3,2 2,342 % % - Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre - 6,8 7, 6,77,369-1% -3% - Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m - 78, 88,2 91,7 73,923 17% 4% - Roofing Nails 1Kg - 171,1 194,1 193,1 1,817 13% % - Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft - 14,27 128,83 127,683 12,97 22% % - Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm - 87,4 7,63 74,7 6,241-1% % - Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % -% -8% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % -4% 29% Consumer Price Index % -1% - Purchasing Power Index % 1% - * Data has been collected since May 21 * Data has been collected since May 21 Figure 44: Imported commodity prices compared to exchange rates Figure 4: Trends in wage rates, staple cereal prices and relative purchasing power Labour Cereal (Rice) Labour/Cereal TOT Price per Unit (SLSh) SLSH Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) SOMALILAND SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Figure 46: Goat Local Quality Figure 47: Exchange Rate Figure 48: Water Drum Figure 49: Firewood Bundle 11

12 Trends in Livestock Exports Table 2: Berbera Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) (Jan-Jul)* Shoats 1,72,66 2,683,97 2,376,646 2,814,49 97,224 2,48,136 1,61,83 1,46 341,711 63,17 89,44 1,23,79 1,17,242 1,3,4 1,219,19 1,6,3 2,84,81 3,14,684 1,14,129 Cattle 173,4 167,128 6,127 66,939 92,213 89,967 63,263 2,973 37,47 84, ,82 148,11 8,631 88,143 8,1 88, 133,21 1,934 98,893 Camel 38,3 21,993 42,81,87 11,663 37,43 16,984 3,473 18,864 21,874,147,69 22,81 14,24 26,1 2,26 92,61 17,281 77,86 * Jan-Jul 212 cumulative livestock exports Number of Heads 3,2, 3,, 2,8, 2,6, 2,4, 2,2, 2,, 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Figure : Berbera Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) Camel Cattle Shoats YEAR Table 3: Bossaso Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) (Jan-Sep) Shoats 344, 24, ,47 494,32 17,2 633,669 71,4 48,83 1,412,4 1,483,49 1,166,48 1,94,89 1,777,283 1,22,8 1,236,77 1,19,44 1,333,478 1,26,3 796,921 Cattle 1,4 8,79 1,33 17,831 29,492 36,86 27,64 42,248 3,313 71,328 79,994 91,91 14,9 89,19 78,46 67,38 13,88 99,8 9,81 Camel,397 8,392 2,462 14,99 3,938 1,44 8,177 1,9 9,72 4,29 2,488 26,19 33,724 27,8 27,639 1,331 36,86 4,878 18,76 Figure 1: Bossaso Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) Number of Heads 3,2, 3,, 2,8, 2,6, 2,4, 2,2, 2,, 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Camel Cattle Shoats YEAR 12

13 Trends in Cereal Imports Table 4: Total Cereal Imports (Berbera,Bossaso,Elmaan) * Rice 66,419 43,41 63,464 7,687 74, ,6 18, ,67 1,17 198,11 166, ,7 171, ,41 272, ,28 Wheat flour 3,143 26,774,176 78, 134,42 128, ,442 11, 169,83 178,34 176, ,28 24, ,8 28, ,4 Pasta 2,1 2,4 8,44 11,71 26,72 3,42 29,273 38,749 39,13 2,81 41,331 38,441 86,372 12, ,849 18,837 3, Figure 2: Total Cereal Imports (Berbera,Bossaso and Elmaan) Cereal Imports in Metric Tonnes 2, 2, 1, 1, Rice Wheat flour Pasta, * January-September 212 Cumulative Cereal Imports * Berbera data up to July 212 * Bossaso data up to September 212 * Elmaan data is up to July