Green Economy for Agricultural Water Development through Optimisation

Transcription

1 Green Economy for Agricultural Water Development through Optimisation Michael Gilmont and Marta Antonelli, King s College London UEA Water Security/The Irrigation & Water Forum Water and the Green Economy 8 November 2013, Institute of Civil Engineers, London.

2 Outline Global Water Use Opportunity Costs to inform allocation Water development trajectories A new pathway of sustainable intensification of water Challenges and Conclusions

3 Global Water Use Blue Water Uses Food and Non-food Agricultural Production Predominantly Food Green water underpins food security globally (farmers Blue know this) although 70% to its policy role has agriculture been neglected (up to 85%) in water scarcity and security analyses until c % Industry 11% Social Water 20% Agricultural Water Footprint Green Water Root zone water: rainfed agriculture 80% Agricultural Water Footprint Sources: FAO 2013; Fader et al. 2011

4 Map of global irrigated area

5 Map of global rainfed area

6 Potential for improvement of Green Water in ME and Africa Nigeria Sudan and South Sudan South Africa Niger Ethiopia United Republic of Tanzania Morocco Algeria Uganda Cameroon Ghana Syrian Arab Republic Mali Tunisia Mozambique Burkina Faso Saudi Arabia Zimbabwe Chad Egypt Senegal Guinea Malawi Benin Zambia Libya Rwanda Burundi Namibia Lesotho Gambia Jordan Lebanon Botswana Palestinian Territory Swaziland Qatar Kuwait Bahrain Djibouti National Cultivation types (Irrigated and Non-Irrigated) Listed according to total cultivation area (largest to smallest) Irrigated (k.ha) Non-Irrigated Area (k.ha)

7 Food-water & non-food water Non-Food Water generally has higher value per drop than Food Water. Non-Food Water can only be Blue Water. Food Water can be either Blue or Green Water. Food-water security and non-food security are only partially dependent on local availability of water resources. They are more related to the effectiveness of their allocation and management (Allan 2013). Difference in application and substitutability provides avenue for more effective allocation of water enabling sustainable intensification.

8 Opportunity cost analysis for Water Allocation Opportunity cost is defined as the value of the alternative that is foregone whenever a choice between different allocation options is made. This concept can be used to highlight the relationship between scarce water resources and alternative choices. Blue water resources: Many alternative uses: irrigation, industry, households --> higher opportunity cost; Agricultural use of blue water: lowest economic value among possible uses and associated with over-allocation and negative externalities, therefore inefficient in terms of opportunity cost Green water resources: Alternative uses: agriculture, vegetation --> lower opportunity cost; Rainfed agriculture is generally efficient in terms of opportunity cost.

9 The challenge: how to meet future needs in a sustainable way? Growing Demand for water population growth; waterintensive diets; water intensive lifestyles, food waste. Limited Supply Climate change, environmental degradation, environmental protection, marginal returns on new resources, Land and Water resource supply.

10 What is needed Generation of greater production from current or less blue water resource use, i.e. sustainable intensification, through better water resource management. Consideration of competing social, economic, environmental demands of water informed by opportunity cost analysis. Realised in part by Optimisation of green water use. Huge potential for improvements in Africa in terms of ET contribution, 10-30% efficiency 60% (Falkenmark and Rockstrom, 2006; Rockstrom et al. 2009) Sustainable intensification of rainfed agriculture development can increase production while limiting environmental impacts. Source: Siebert and Doll 2010 Optimise water allocation, including Green/Blue Water allocation through Opportunity Cost Analysis to sustainably intensify agricultural production; a Green Economy for water development.

11 Water development trajectories

12 Water Input and Production Output Levels Advanced Semi-Arid Economies Blue Water Use Trajectory Production Output Business as usual growth Environmentally Sustainable reduction Production Growth continues slowly through efficiency Gap between water use and production made up through efficiency, X Politically Sustainable Use Level Environmentally Sustainable Use Level Time

13 Water Input and Production Output Levels New development pathway: Optimising Water Allocation Traditional Blue Water Use Trajectory Production Output Revised Blue Water Use Trajectory X 6 X 3 X 4 X 5 Efficiency gains ƩX n incorporated throughout development trajectory, rather than postmobilisation redevelopment X 2 X 1 Time

14 Potential ways of delivering sustainable intensification justified through Opportunity Cost Analysis Integrated land and water management Conjunctive development of green and blue water resources Water harvesting (in situ and ex situ) Crop yield increase through agricultural research Policy reform and increased investments in rainfed areas

15 Challenges Pricing of water and rules of investment while water remains underpriced, including its environmental cost, full development cost will not be realised. Accountability and governance Adoption alternative pathways will require revised priorities from existing agricultural and water development structures. Technology Transfer efficient irrigation technologies and agricultural management practices, including rainfed agricultural improvement, can be more capital intensive. Politics changes in priorities and practices contested and require time (possibly inter-generational).

16 Conclusions Green water production forms majority of global agriculture and has significant potential for delivering higher outputs. Opportunity cost analysis demonstrates that development of green water presents a powerful avenue for delivering Sustainable Intensification of agriculture. Opportunity cost analysis provides rationale for adopting initially higher-cost development options. Hesitate to Irrigate Analyse to Optimise. Pay Once not Twice for Agricultural Production Capacity.

17 Thank You Michael Gilmont: Marta Antonelli: Antonelli, M., Gilmont, M., and Roson, R., Water s Green Economy: alternative pathways for water resource development in agriculture. L Europe en formation, Autumn 2012, no doi: /eufor Barry B., Olaleye A. O., Zougmore R., and Fatondji D Rainwater harvesting technologies in the Sahelian zone of West Africa and the potential for outscaling. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute, 40p (IWMI Working Paper 126). Falkenmark, M. and Rockström, J The New Blue and Green Water Paradigm: Breaking New Ground for Water Resources Planning and Management, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, May-June, pp FAO (2006), World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050 Interim Report Prospects for Food, Nutrition, Agriculture and Major Commodity Groups, Food and Agriculture organisation of the United Nations, Rome. Gilmont, M., Antonelli M, and Greco, F., A development pathway to optimise sustainability of water investment and minimise social cost. International Conference on Food Security in Dry Lands, Doha, November Gilmont, M., and Antonelli, M., Analyse to Optimise: Sustainable intensification of agricultural production through investment in integrated land and water management in Africa. In: J. A. Allan et al. eds. Handbook of Land and Water Grabs in Africa. London: Routledge. p