Soil Emissions and Removals Reporting in Portugal JRC LULUCCF Workshop 06/05/2014 Paulo Canaveira

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1 Soil Emissions and Removals Reporting in Portugal 2014 JRC LULUCCF Workshop 06/05/2014 Paulo Canaveira

3 (Our) Objective for Soil Reporting (for now) Characterise emissions and removals in the soil pool associated with land-use changes [changes in land remaining land are more compicated to estimate] General Approach Characterise average C Stock in each land-use Emission Factor = difference in C stocks / 20 years Land remaining land = 0

4 Soil Data Lots of soil data but... Mostly on Soil Organic Matter Almost no data on C Stocks Not treated / consolidated into usable databases 4

5 (almost usable) Data Sources for Soil Data ICP Forests Level 2 Grid 1995 (159 plots, forests and shrubland only) 2005 (103 plots, forests and shrubland only) BioSoil Based on ICP Forests Level 2 Grid 1999 (102 plots, agriculture and grasslands only) LUCAS soil survey 2009 (463 plots, almost all land uses) Total 828 plots

6 Challenges & Solutions Depth of soil sampling not constant 0-20cm exist for all samples (828) 20-40cm only exist in some (208) No data in LUCAS IPCC recommends 30cm (!) Solution Data 0-40 cm used real data for all plots where it exists gap filling for missing data based on ratio / 0-20 calculated on plots where both measurements exist (average 58%)

7 Challenges & Solutions Bulk density missing in many samples Important to convert soil organic matter (%) into tonc/ha No data in LUCAS samples No data in Biosoil samples Limited data in ICP Forests Level 2 samples Solution real data for all plots where it exists gap filling for missing data based on reference BD in JRC maps

8 Challenges & Solutions Different sampling dates 1995 (159 plots, forests and shrubland only) 2005 (103 plots, forests and shrubland only) 1999 (102 plots, agriculture and grasslands only) 2009 (463 plots, almost all land uses) Solution Use combination of all data Assumed to be OK for characterising average C Stock per land-use type

9 Challenges & Solutions Land-use data is missing for some plots No data in LUCAS samples Solution gap filling for missing data Use georeferenced location of the plot combined with land use map (2010)

10 Challenges & Solutions Coverage per land-use reporting category is not uniform Major land-uses all well represented Some categories have very limited data or are not represented at all Solution Aggregate some categories Pinus pinea + other coniferous Rice + irrigated crops Assume zero C Stock for some categories Wetlands; Settlements

11 The Resulting Dataset No. Plots (measured) LUCAS Source ICP/Biosoil Legend KP / Total Total 01. Pinus pinaster Quercus suber Eucalyptus Quercus rotundifolia Other quercus Other broadleaves Pinus pinea Other coniferous Rain-fed crops Irrigated crops Rice Vineyards Olive Other permanent Grassland Wetlands 17. Settlements Shrubland Other Total

12 The Resulting Dataset Average C (0-40cm) ton/ha (measured + estimated) LUCAS Source ICP/Biosoil Total Average Legend KP / Average 01. Pinus pinaster Quercus suber Eucalyptus Quercus rotundifolia Other quercus Other broadleaves Pinus pinea Other coniferous Rain-fed crops Irrigated crops Rice Vineyards Olive Other permanent Grassland Wetlands 17. Settlements Shrubland Other National Average

13 Used Soil Dataset Legenda KP Min <95% Average >95% Max 01. Pinus pinaster Quercus suber Eucalyptus Quercus rotundifolia Other quercus Other broadleaves Pinus pinea Other coniferous Rain-fed crops Irrigated crops Rice Vineyards Olive Other permanent Grassland Wetlands 17. Settlements 18. Shrubland Other

14 FROM Calculated Emission Factors TO Soil Emission Factors Forest land Cropland Grassl. Wetl. Setlm. Other Land Pinus pinaster -2,3-0,7-2,4-1,2-0,3-1,0-1,0-2,7-2,4-2,4-3,1-2,1-2,8-2,6-5,6-5,6-0,3-3,1 02. Quercus suber 2,3 1,6-0,1 1,1 2,0 1,3 1,3-0,4-0,1-0,1-0,8 0,2-0,5-0,3-3,3-3,3 2,0-0,8 03. Eucalyptus 0,7-1,6-1,7-0,5 0,4-0,3-0,3-2,0-1,7-1,7-2,4-1,4-2,1-1,9-4,9-4,9 0,4-2,4 Forest land 04. Quercus rotundifolia 2,4 0,1 1,7 1,2 2,1 1,4 1,4-0,3 0,0 0,0-0,7 0,3-0,4-0,2-3,2-3,2 2,1-0,7 05. Other quercus 1,2-1,1 0,5-1,2 0,9 0,2 0,2-1,5-1,3-1,3-1,9-0,9-1,7-1,4-4,5-4,5 0,9-1,9 06. Other broadleaves 0,3-2,0-0,4-2,1-0,9-0,7-0,7-2,4-2,2-2,2-2,8-1,8-2,6-2,3-5,4-5,4 0,0-2,8 07. Pinus pinea 1,0-1,3 0,3-1,4-0,2 0,7-1,7-1,4-1,4-2,1-1,1-1,9-1,6-4,6-4,6 0,7-2,1 08. Other coniferous 1,0-1,3 0,3-1,4-0,2 0,7-1,7-1,4-1,4-2,1-1,1-1,9-1,6-4,6-4,6 0,7-2,1 09. Rain-fed crops 2,7 0,4 2,0 0,3 1,5 2,4 1,7 1,7 0,2 0,2-0,4 0,6-0,2 0,1-3,0-3,0 2,4-0,4 10. Irrigated crops 2,4 0,1 1,7 0,0 1,3 2,2 1,4 1,4-0,2-0,7 0,4-0,4-0,1-3,2-3,2 2,1-0,7 Cropland 11. Rice 2,4 0,1 1,7 0,0 1,3 2,2 1,4 1,4-0,2-0,7 0,4-0,4-0,1-3,2-3,2 2,1-0,7 12. Vineyards 3,1 0,8 2,4 0,7 1,9 2,8 2,1 2,1 0,4 0,7 0,7 1,0 0,3 0,5-2,5-2,5 2,8 13. Olive 2,1-0,2 1,4-0,3 0,9 1,8 1,1 1,1-0,6-0,4-0,4-1,0-0,8-0,5-3,6-3,6 1,8-1,0 14. Other permanent 2,8 0,5 2,1 0,4 1,7 2,6 1,9 1,9 0,2 0,4 0,4-0,3 0,8 0,3-2,8-2,8 2,6-0,3 Grassland 15. Grassland 2,6 0,3 1,9 0,2 1,4 2,3 1,6 1,6-0,1 0,1 0,1-0,5 0,5-0,3-3,1-3,1 2,3-0,5 Wetlands 16. Wetlands 5,6 3,3 4,9 3,2 4,5 5,4 4,6 4,6 3,0 3,2 3,2 2,5 3,6 2,8 3,1 5,4 2,5 Settlements 17. Settlements 5,6 3,3 4,9 3,2 4,5 5,4 4,6 4,6 3,0 3,2 3,2 2,5 3,6 2,8 3,1 5,4 2,5 Other Land 18. Shrubland 0,3-2,0-0,4-2,1-0,9 0,0-0,7-0,7-2,4-2,1-2,1-2,8-1,8-2,6-2,3-5,4-5,4-2,8 19. Other 3,1 0,8 2,4 0,7 1,9 2,8 2,1 2,1 0,4 0,7 0,7 1,0 0,3 0,5-2,5-2,5 2,8 Minimum 0,0 25% percentile 0,6 Average 1,8 75% percentile 2,5 Maximum 5,6 C Stock old land-use C Stock new land-use divided by 20 (years)

15 FROM Calculated Emission Factors Uncertainty TO Estimated Uncertainty in Soil Emission Forest land Cropland Grassl. Wetl. Setlm. Other Land Factors Pinus pinaster 38% 174% 37% 146% 502% 312% 312% 35% 42% 42% 36% 59% 42% 37% 15% 15% 583% 36% 02. Quercus suber 38% 61% 460% 132% 55% 225% 225% 143% 563% 563% 101% 398% 171% 216% 8% 8% 69% 101% 03. Eucalyptus 174% 61% 58% 386% 326% 1134% 1134% 52% 64% 64% 50% 95% 60% 56% 19% 19% 381% 50% Forest land 04. Quercus rotundifolia 37% 460% 58% 123% 54% 210% 210% 204% 3029% 3029% 118% 289% 212% 353% 10% 10% 67% 118% 05. Other quercus 146% 132% 386% 123% 206% 1835% 1835% 103% 127% 127% 86% 191% 103% 111% 33% 33% 228% 86% 06. Other broadleaves 502% 55% 326% 54% 206% 442% 442% 49% 58% 58% 47% 78% 54% 52% 20% 20% 60394% 47% 07. Pinus pinea 312% 225% 1134% 210% 1835% 442% 178% 210% 210% 145% 284% 166% 189% 64% 64% 460% 145% 08. Other coniferous 312% 225% 1134% 210% 1835% 442% 178% 210% 210% 145% 284% 166% 189% 64% 64% 460% 145% 09. Rain-fed crops 35% 143% 52% 204% 103% 49% 178% 178% 301% 301% 202% 166% 562% 652% 15% 15% 61% 202% 10. Irrigated crops 42% 563% 64% 3029% 127% 58% 210% 210% 301% 142% 304% 252% 532% 18% 18% 70% 142% Cropland 11. Rice 42% 563% 64% 3029% 127% 58% 210% 210% 301% 142% 304% 252% 532% 18% 18% 70% 142% 12. Vineyards 36% 101% 50% 118% 86% 47% 145% 145% 202% 142% 142% 114% 448% 169% 29% 29% 56% 13. Olive 59% 398% 95% 289% 191% 78% 284% 284% 166% 304% 304% 114% 162% 205% 25% 25% 92% 114% 14. Other permanent 42% 171% 60% 212% 103% 54% 166% 166% 562% 252% 252% 448% 162% 365% 31% 31% 64% 448% Grassland 15. Grassland 37% 216% 56% 353% 111% 52% 189% 189% 652% 532% 532% 169% 205% 365% 16% 16% 64% 169% Wetlands 16. Wetlands 15% 8% 19% 10% 33% 20% 64% 64% 15% 18% 18% 29% 25% 31% 16% 26% 29% Settlements 17. Settlements 15% 8% 19% 10% 33% 20% 64% 64% 15% 18% 18% 29% 25% 31% 16% 26% 29% Other Land 18. Shrubland 583% 69% 381% 67% 228% 60394% 460% 460% 61% 70% 70% 56% 92% 64% 64% 26% 26% 56% 19. Other 36% 101% 50% 118% 86% 47% 145% 145% 202% 142% 142% 114% 448% 169% 29% 29% 56% Minimum 8% 25% percentile 49% Average 583% 75% percentile 223% Maximum 60394% 95% confidence interval divided emission factor

16 Are all these emission factors significant? Compare all possible pairs of means T-test (for comparing averages of unequal sizes and unequal variances) Consider only differences that are significant at 95% confidence level Non-significant differences ZERO emission factor

17 FROM From these... (calculated emission factors) TO Soil Emission Factors Forest land Cropland Grassl. Wetl. Setlm. Other Land Pinus pinaster -2,3-0,7-2,4-1,2-0,3-1,0-1,0-2,7-2,4-2,4-3,1-2,1-2,8-2,6-5,6-5,6-0,3-3,1 02. Quercus suber 2,3 1,6-0,1 1,1 2,0 1,3 1,3-0,4-0,1-0,1-0,8 0,2-0,5-0,3-3,3-3,3 2,0-0,8 03. Eucalyptus 0,7-1,6-1,7-0,5 0,4-0,3-0,3-2,0-1,7-1,7-2,4-1,4-2,1-1,9-4,9-4,9 0,4-2,4 Forest land 04. Quercus rotundifolia 2,4 0,1 1,7 1,2 2,1 1,4 1,4-0,3 0,0 0,0-0,7 0,3-0,4-0,2-3,2-3,2 2,1-0,7 05. Other quercus 1,2-1,1 0,5-1,2 0,9 0,2 0,2-1,5-1,3-1,3-1,9-0,9-1,7-1,4-4,5-4,5 0,9-1,9 06. Other broadleaves 0,3-2,0-0,4-2,1-0,9-0,7-0,7-2,4-2,2-2,2-2,8-1,8-2,6-2,3-5,4-5,4 0,0-2,8 07. Pinus pinea 1,0-1,3 0,3-1,4-0,2 0,7-1,7-1,4-1,4-2,1-1,1-1,9-1,6-4,6-4,6 0,7-2,1 08. Other coniferous 1,0-1,3 0,3-1,4-0,2 0,7-1,7-1,4-1,4-2,1-1,1-1,9-1,6-4,6-4,6 0,7-2,1 09. Rain-fed crops 2,7 0,4 2,0 0,3 1,5 2,4 1,7 1,7 0,2 0,2-0,4 0,6-0,2 0,1-3,0-3,0 2,4-0,4 10. Irrigated crops 2,4 0,1 1,7 0,0 1,3 2,2 1,4 1,4-0,2-0,7 0,4-0,4-0,1-3,2-3,2 2,1-0,7 Cropland 11. Rice 2,4 0,1 1,7 0,0 1,3 2,2 1,4 1,4-0,2-0,7 0,4-0,4-0,1-3,2-3,2 2,1-0,7 12. Vineyards 3,1 0,8 2,4 0,7 1,9 2,8 2,1 2,1 0,4 0,7 0,7 1,0 0,3 0,5-2,5-2,5 2,8 13. Olive 2,1-0,2 1,4-0,3 0,9 1,8 1,1 1,1-0,6-0,4-0,4-1,0-0,8-0,5-3,6-3,6 1,8-1,0 14. Other permanent 2,8 0,5 2,1 0,4 1,7 2,6 1,9 1,9 0,2 0,4 0,4-0,3 0,8 0,3-2,8-2,8 2,6-0,3 Grassland 15. Grassland 2,6 0,3 1,9 0,2 1,4 2,3 1,6 1,6-0,1 0,1 0,1-0,5 0,5-0,3-3,1-3,1 2,3-0,5 Wetlands 16. Wetlands 5,6 3,3 4,9 3,2 4,5 5,4 4,6 4,6 3,0 3,2 3,2 2,5 3,6 2,8 3,1 5,4 2,5 Settlements 17. Settlements 5,6 3,3 4,9 3,2 4,5 5,4 4,6 4,6 3,0 3,2 3,2 2,5 3,6 2,8 3,1 5,4 2,5 Other Land 18. Shrubland 0,3-2,0-0,4-2,1-0,9 0,0-0,7-0,7-2,4-2,1-2,1-2,8-1,8-2,6-2,3-5,4-5,4-2,8 19. Other 3,1 0,8 2,4 0,7 1,9 2,8 2,1 2,1 0,4 0,7 0,7 1,0 0,3 0,5-2,5-2,5 2,8 Minimum 0,0 25% percentile 0,6 Average 1,8 75% percentile 2,5 Maximum 5,6 C Stock old land-use C Stock new land-use divided by 20 (years)

18 FROM...to these (calculated AND significant emission factors) TO Soil Emission Factors Forest land Cropland Grassl. Wetl. Setlm. Other Land Pinus pinaster -2,3-2,4-2,7-2,4-2,4-3,1-2,1-2,8-2,6-5,6-5,6-3,1 02. Quercus suber 2,3 1,6 2,0-3,3-3,3 2,0 03. Eucalyptus -1,6-1,7-2,0-1,7-1,7-2,4-1,4-2,1-1,9-4,9-4,9-2,4 Forest land 04. Quercus rotundifolia 2,4 1,7 2,1-3,2-3,2 2,1 05. Other quercus -1,9-4,5-4,5-1,9 06. Other broadleaves -2,0-2,1-2,4-2,2-2,2-2,8-1,8-2,6-2,3-5,4-5,4-2,8 07. Pinus pinea -4,6-4,6 08. Other coniferous -4,6-4,6 09. Rain-fed crops 2,7 2,0 2,4-3,0-3,0 2,4 10. Irrigated crops 2,4 1,7 2,2-3,2-3,2 2,1 Cropland 11. Rice 2,4 1,7 2,2-3,2-3,2 2,1 12. Vineyards 3,1 2,4 1,9 2,8-2,5-2,5 2,8 13. Olive 2,1 1,4 1,8-3,6-3,6 1,8 14. Other permanent 2,8 2,1 2,6-2,8-2,8 2,6 Grassland 15. Grassland 2,6 1,9 2,3-3,1-3,1 2,3 Wetlands 16. Wetlands 5,6 3,3 4,9 3,2 4,5 5,4 4,6 4,6 3,0 3,2 3,2 2,5 3,6 2,8 3,1 5,4 2,5 Settlements 17. Settlements 5,6 3,3 4,9 3,2 4,5 5,4 4,6 4,6 3,0 3,2 3,2 2,5 3,6 2,8 3,1 5,4 2,5 Other Land 18. Shrubland -2,0-2,1-2,4-2,1-2,1-2,8-1,8-2,6-2,3-5,4-5,4-2,8 19. Other 3,1 2,4 1,9 2,8-2,5-2,5 2,8 Minimum 0,0 25% percentile 0,6 Average 1,8 75% percentile 2,5 Maximum 5,6 1,4 2,1 3,0 3,2 5,6 C Stock old land-use C Stock new land-use divided by 20 (years)

19 FROM Used Emission Factors Uncertainty TO Estimated Uncertainty in Soil Emission Forest land Cropland Grassl. Wetl. Setlm. Other Land Factors Pinus pinaster 38% 37% 35% 42% 42% 36% 59% 42% 37% 15% 15% 36% 02. Quercus suber 38% 61% 55% 8% 8% 69% 03. Eucalyptus 61% 58% 52% 64% 64% 50% 95% 60% 56% 19% 19% 50% Forest land 04. Quercus rotundifolia 37% 58% 54% 10% 10% 67% 05. Other quercus 86% 33% 33% 86% 06. Other broadleaves 55% 54% 49% 58% 58% 47% 78% 54% 52% 20% 20% 47% 07. Pinus pinea 64% 64% 08. Other coniferous 64% 64% 09. Rain-fed crops 35% 52% 49% 15% 15% 61% 10. Irrigated crops 42% 64% 58% 18% 18% 70% Cropland 11. Rice 42% 64% 58% 18% 18% 70% 12. Vineyards 36% 50% 86% 47% 29% 29% 56% 13. Olive 59% 95% 78% 25% 25% 92% 14. Other permanent 42% 60% 54% 31% 31% 64% Grassland 15. Grassland 37% 56% 52% 16% 16% 64% Wetlands 16. Wetlands 15% 8% 19% 10% 33% 20% 64% 64% 15% 18% 18% 29% 25% 31% 16% 26% 29% Settlements 17. Settlements 15% 8% 19% 10% 33% 20% 64% 64% 15% 18% 18% 29% 25% 31% 16% 26% 29% Other Land 18. Shrubland 69% 67% 61% 70% 70% 56% 92% 64% 64% 26% 26% 56% 19. Other 36% 50% 86% 47% 29% 29% 56% Minimum 8% 25% percentile 49% Median 118% 75% percentile 223% Maximum 60394% 8% 25% 42% 60% 95% 95% confidence interval divided emission factor

20 Impact of Soil EF in Accounted Numbers KP Accounting no soil 3.3 Afforestation & Reforestation not harvested Afforestation & Reforestation harvested Deforestation Forest Management Cropland Management Grassland Management Total LULUCF 1st CP Annual all EF signficant EF

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