The Evolution of Agricultural GHG Emissions in Italy and the Role of the CAP. A Farm-level Assessment.
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1 The Evolution of Agricultural GHG Emissions in Italy and the Role of the CAP. A Farm-level Assessment. Silvia Coderoni 1 and Roberto Esposti 2 1 INEA (National Institute for Agricultural Economics), Rome, Italy 2 Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy 3 rd AIEAA Conference - Feeding the Planet and Greening Agriculture: Challenges and opportunities for the bio-economy. Alghero, June, 2014
2 Outline of the presentation Policy framework Research question GHG emission reconstruction at farm level The FADN sample Some (preliminary) results
3 Policy contest The European 2050 Strategy to combat climate change and the role of agricultural GHG emission (-42/49% of agri GHG emissions) Effort Sharing Decision n. 426/2009/UE LULUCF-Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry accounting framework. Dec. n.529/2013/ue (i.e. accounting for cropland and grasslands management) Common Agricultural Policy: climate change challenge both in pillar I and II Pillar I and the role of the greening Pillar II e.g. climate as objective of RDPs, agri-climateenvironment, etc.
4 Research question Agricultural GHG emission in Italy (and in Europe) have declined from 1990 to 2012 (EEA, 2014) Do we observe a decline at the farm level? Where and Why? Define a methodology for the reconstruction of agricultural GHG emissions (i.e. Carbon Footprint-CF) at farm level and of its evolution over time. Interpretations of the differences observed across farm typologies and territories and, above all, of the farm-level CF evolution over time with specific reference to the possible role of the CAP: the 2003 Reform of its First Pillar those Second Pillar s measures targeted to activities and practices that have a direct impact on the CF
5 GHG emissions at farm level What: emissions on which the farmer has a direct control/makes choices (no Supply Chain/Life Cycle Assessment) How: using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1997, 2000, 2006) methodolody adapted at farm level (Coderoni et al., 2013), FADN activity data & ISPRA/IPCC default emission factors one synthetic farm-level emission measure: the farm CF IPCC CATEGORY SOURCE GHG 4A Enteric Fermentation CH 4 4B Manure Management N 2 O, CH 4 4C Rice CH 4 4D Agricultural Soils N 2 O, CH 4 1A Energy CO 2 5A Forest land CO 2 5B Cropland CO 2 5C Grassland CO 2
6 5 Carbon Footprints categories GHG emission sources and the respective FADN activity data Emission sources CF category FADN data N 2 O manure management CF livestock Animal numbers CH 4 manure management CF livestock Animal numbers CH 4 enteric fermentation CF livestock Animal numbers CH 4 rice crops CF crops Rice area (UAA) N 2 O agricultural soils Various Direct emissions Use of synthetic fertilisers CF fertilizer Fertilisers expenditure Biological N fixation CF crops N-fixing crop area Crop residues CF crops Crop area (UAA) Indirect emissions 1 Atmospheric deposition CF fertilizer/ CF crops Fertil. expe. & animal numbers Leaching and run-off CF fertilizer/ CF crops Fertil. expe. & animal numbers CO 2 Energy CF Fuel Fuel expenditure CO 2 Forest land CF Land use UAA CO 2 Cropland CF Land use UAA CO 2 Grasslands CF Land use UAA
7 The FADN sample We need a constant sample of farms yearly observed over the pre and post-2005 period: balanced panel extracted from the FADN-Farm Accountancy Data Network (RICA) database: 5,036 farms observed over years with all the needed information to compute the respective CF Note: FADN excludes a significant (in terms of numerosity) amount of Italian small farms: does this matter for the assessment of CF evolution over time?
8 evolution of the 5 farm-level CF categories CF category Var (%) CF Fuel CF Crops CF Fertilizers CF Livestock CF Land Use A 2.8E E E E E CF Land Use B -4.8E E E E E CF Total A (499.5) (504.1) (507.7) (566.9) (563.1) (1.3) CF Total B (499.5) (504.1) (507.7) (566.9) (563.1) (1.3) ton CO 2e per farm avg.; st. dev. in parenthesis. A: ISPRA IEF; B: JRC based IEF. Source: own elaborations Mostly smooth variations Large heterogeneity but some robust evidence emerges Only CF livestock declines Land Use does not matter much
9 evolution of the 5 farm-level CF categories CF Fuel CF Cultivation CF Fertilizers CF Livestock CF Land Use A CF Land Use B ton CO 2e per farm avg.; st. dev. in parenthesis. Source: own elaborations
10 evolution of the farm-level total CF across farm typologies Farm typology: Var (%) Economic Size: ES ES ES>= UAA: UAA < 10 ha UAA ha UAA >50 ha Correlation coefficient UAA-CF ton CO 2e per farm avg. Source: own elaborations
11 evolution of the farm-level total CF across farm typologies Farm typology: Var (%) COP Other fieldcrops Horticulture Wine Orchards fruits Olives Permanent crops combined Milk Sheep and goats Cattle Granivores Mixed crops Mixed livestock Mixed crops and livestock ton CO 2e per farm avg. Source: own elaborations
12 Farm-level total CF/UAA across space Farm-level total CF/UAA (Kg CO 2e ) across Italian provinces and over time: 2003 (a), 2007 (b), var (%) (c) (a) (b) (c) - + Kg CO 2e per farm avg.; st. dev. in parenthesis. Source: own elaborations
13 The role of the CAP: farm-level total CF and 1 st pillar payments Farm-level total CF (ton CO 2e ) and first pillar payments, FPP (avg ) (per farm avg.) Farm groups: 2003 CF 2007 CF Var. CF (%) FPP/GPV <10% FPP/GPV 10-30% FPP/GPV 30% Correlation coefficient FPP CF Source: own elaborations Negative but negligible correlation between FPP and CF More supported/dependent farms better emission perfomance (levels and variations) Apparently, 1 st pillar reform did not change CF patterns
14 The role of the CAP: farm-level total CF and 2 nd pillar payments Farm-level total CF (ton CO 2e ) and second pillar payments (i.e Programming Period (per farm avg.) Farm groups: 2003 CF 2007 CF Var. CF (%) With second pillar payments No second pillar payments Correlation coefficient second pillar payments-cf (a) (a) only farms with second pillar payments Source: own elaborations Positive correlation between 2 nd pillar payments and CF (levels) Positive correlation between 2 nd pillar payments and CF (variations) Apparently, 2 nd pillar promoted a change in CF patterns
15 Some concluding remarks Novelty of the paper: farm-level comprehensive GHG emission/cf calculation A methodology based on international standards An application to an Italian FADN balanced panel This allows assessing: Whether/How emission performance evolves over time at the farm-level What drives this evolution; the role of the CAP Still several data and methodological issues to be fixed (e.g. land use changes) but some robust evidence emerges: Assessment of the role of the CAP in its initial stage Apparently the 2 nd pillar measures had a role more than 1 st pillar reform (whose purpose did not concern the CF)
16 Thank you Silvia Coderoni
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