(A) Introduction. Regionalisation of Nitrogen Balances with CAPRI Pilot Project (RegNiBal) Kick-off meeting 20/02/2013. Adrian Leip Franz Weiss

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1 Regionalisation of Nitrogen Balances with CAPRI Pilot Project (RegNiBal) Kick-off meeting 20/02/ (A) Introduction Adrian Leip Franz Weiss Serving society Stimulating innovation Supporting legislation

2 What is CAPRI? Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact A multi-purpose modeling system for EU s agriculture, which allows to analyze the effects of: Agricultural policies (international/eu/member state/nuts2) Environmental policies Changes in exogenous drivers (population/inflation etc.) on endogenous variables: Supply/demand/trade flows Hectares/herd size/yields/input use Producer & consumer prices, income indicators Environmental indicators Conventional welfare effects

3 Operational since 1999 Step-wise expanded over time: First version for EU15 with a focus on regional modeling of EU agriculture ( ) Second phase (CAP-STRAT): expansion to EU27, large-scale global trade model ( ), farm types Third phase (CAPRI-DYNASPAT): spatial down-scaling, energy indicators, new Graphical User Interface ( ) Fourth phase (CAPRI-RD): focus on Rural Development (started 2009) CAPRI is open source Available via SVN-Server (Tortoise)

4 276 CAPRI regions

5 Data Base Tools Projection EuroStat FaoStat MacMaps.. CoCo Scenario CAPREG Data Exploitation

6 Bayesian (Highest Posterior Density) estimator A posterior estimate Trust level max v i N,C,R s. t. : v i p i p i 2 Tr vi A prior estimate i N,C,R a ij v j b j N Regions (NUTS, Member State) C Colums (Avtivities, Balance, EAA etc. ) R Rows (Products, Inputs, Levl etc. )

7 Crop-specific regional distribution of mineral fertiliser applications CAPRI Example: Distribution of Mineral fertilizer to regions and crops Minimum deviation of average national inorganic crop specific application rates for N,P,K from EFMA questionnaire data Total inorganic N at national level must be exhausted by the regional and crop specific application rates times given regional crop areas Regional crop N-requirements (based on yields, N-contents and areas) < Regional N-supply (mineral fertiliser, manure availability, N-fixation, atmospheric deposition) and NH3 losses

8 Production activities 40 crop activities 18 animal activities Balance positions Prices EAA positions Outputs 36 primary crop products 17 primary animal products Yields Production and use Output prices Production value 31 secondary products Inputs Input coefficients Input balances Input prices Total input costs Profitability measures Gross margin Sector income Activity level Number of hectares/animals

9 The CAPRI model Data Base Tools GLOBAL EuroStat FaoStat MacMaps.. CoCo CAPREG Environment

10 Nitrogen module: N2O Mineral fertilizer application NPK Crop residues Atmospheric Deposition Organic soils N2O NH3/NOx NH3/NOx SURSOI N2O Pasture NO3 N2O NO3 N2 N excretion N2O Stable Liquid/Solid NH3/NOx Storage Liquid/Solid NH3/NOx NO3 Application NH3/NOx N2O Liquid/Solid

11 CAPRI as environmental impact assessment tool CAPRI NUTS 2 data disaggregation aggregation CAPRI pixel data

12 AT BL BG CZ CY DK EE FI FR DE EL HU IR IT LV LT MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE UK EU27 Nitrogen Use Efficiency [%] AT BL BG CZ CY DK EE FI FR DE EL HU IR IT LV LT MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE UK EU27 Nitrogen Surplus [kg N ha -1 yr -1 ] CAPRI as environmental impact assessment tool Nitrogen surplus Link to biophysical modeling a) Soil N-budget Land N-budget Farm N-budget b) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Total GHG 10% fluxes EU27: 661 Mt CO 2-eq % Leip et al., 2011, EP % 30% Life 20% cycle assessment 0% Leip et al., 2011, EP 159, Meta-modeling % 21 3% 54 8% % 24 4% 12 2% Beef Cow Milk Pork Sheep and Goat Meat Sheep and Goat Milk Poultry Meat Eggs Weiss & Leip, 2012, AGEE 149, Britz & Leip, 2009, AGEE 133, Nitrogen budgets Agri-Environmental indicators Leip et al., 2011, European Nitrogen Assessment Terres et al., 2012, CAPRI-RD report

13 Nitrogen Budgets in CAPRI Manure exret. Manure Balance Organic fert. appl. Atmosph. deposit. Animal waste Animal products Animal Balance Manure appl. Mineral fert. appl. Gross Nitrogen Surplus Biolog. N- fixation Soil Balance Manure surplus Soil surplus Domestic crop products Non-feed crop products Feed intake Market Balance Import non-crop feed Net import crop products

14 IFA/FAO EMEP Expert estimates GAINS IPCC (2006) eurostat (coco, capreg)

15 Soil Nitrogen Budget input output surplus throughput not considered CAPRI ENVIRONMENT Aquatic system N-leaching and run-off Atmosphere NH3, NOX, NO, N2O, N2 Atmospheric depsition Biological N-fixation AGRICULTURE Animal production Grass+Crop prod. Internal feed Manure Feed/Fodder Crop residues/ seed Soil stock changes Feed concentrates Animal products Manure import/export manure withdrawal Crop products Organic input Mineral fertilizer INDUSTRY / MARKET / CONSUMER Source: Leip et al., 2011, Environmental Pollution

16 Farm Nitrogen Budget input output surplus throughput not considered CAPRI ENVIRONMENT Aquatic system N-leaching and run-off Atmosphere NH3, NOX, NO, N2O, N2 Atmospheric depsition Biological N-fixation AGRICULTURE Animal production Grass+Crop prod. Internal feed Manure Feed/Fodder Crop residues/ seed Soil stock changes Feed concentrates Animal products Manure import/export manure withdrawal Crop products Organic input Mineral fertilizer INDUSTRY / MARKET / CONSUMER Source: Leip et al., 2011, Environmental Pollution

17 Land Nitrogen Budget = Gross Nutrient Balance input output surplus throughput not considered CAPRI ENVIRONMENT Aquatic system N-leaching and run-off Atmosphere NH3, NOX, NO, N2O, N2 Atmospheric depsition Biological N-fixation AGRICULTURE Animal production Grass+Crop prod. Internal feed Manure Feed/Fodder Crop residues/ seed Soil stock changes Feed concentrates Animal products Manure import/export manure withdrawal Crop products Organic input Mineral fertilizer INDUSTRY / MARKET / CONSUMER Source: Leip et al., 2011, Environmental Pollution

18 cy [%] AT BL BG CZ CY DK EE FI FR DE EL HU IR IT LV LT MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE UK EU27 Nitrogen Surplus [kg N ha -1 yr -1 ] Soil, Farm, and Land Nitrogen Surplus CAPRI a) Soil N-budget Land N-budget Farm N-budget b) 100% 90% 80% Source: Leip et al., 2011, Environmental Pollution

19 cy [%] AT BL BG CZ CY DK EE FI FR DE EL HU IR IT LV LT MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE UK EU27 Nitrogen Nitrogen Surplus Use Efficiency [kg N ha [%] -1 yr -1 ] AT BL BG CZ CY DK EE FI FR DE EL HU IR IT LV LT MT NL PL PT RO SK SI ES SE UK EU27 Nitrogen Surplus [kg N Soil, Farm, and Land Nitrogen Use Efficiency CAPRI a) b) % % % % 60% % % % % 50 10% 0% 0 Soil N-budget Land N-budget Farm N-budget b) 100% 90% 80% Source: Leip et al., 2011, Environmental Pollution

20 Regionalisation of Nitrogen Balances with CAPRI Pilot Project (RegNiBal) Kick-off meeting 20/02/ (B) RegNiBal planning Serving society Stimulating innovation Supporting legislation

21 to regionalise the N-surplus indicator under MoU with ESTAT CAPRI calculates current N- surplus at country and regional level for year (t-2) Output: detailled table with all data and parameters Country-experts have opportunity to check and comment data and indicator CAPRI N-surplus ok CAPRI is updated and recalculates N- surplus yes no yes Output: list of proposed changes in data and parameters; scientific evidence Country provide own estimate no Implementation in CAPRI feasible Suggestions valid? Advisory board checks comments on scientific and statistical

22 Data needs for comparison of N balances Reference area Mineral fertilizer use Average animal stock number (ref year +/- 1) N-excretion rates (per animal type per year) Feed ration (per animal type per year) Slaughtered animals (live weight) / year Milk and eggs production / year Other organic fertilisers (not in CAPRI) Crop areas (by crop type) Crop yield ( ) Crop N-content ( ) Crop fixation rate ( ) Atmospheric deposition Crop residues removed as used for calculation of national GNB Highest spatial resolution available At least for CAPRI base year (2004)

23 Example Problem: N-excretion rates for pigs and cattle in Denmark in CAPRI is over-estimated Cause: N in feed too much Feed market balance wrong (from eurostat/fao commodity balance) N contents in feed wrong Non-agricultural use of feed ignored by CAPRI N in products too little Total N retention in animal products wrong (N-content) Non-registered animal production

24 Milestone Date Comment Kick-off meeting at JRC End February 20/02/2013 First exchange of data End March Exact format/content of data will be discussed at the kick-off meeting Report on differences between CAPRI and national data Discussion on prioritisation of issues Bilateral discussions on problems/meetings End May Beginning of June June-November Phone-conference? Meeting? Intensive cooperation between JRC and countries Report on in-depth assessment of selected (main) differences End November Final discussion and conclusions, presentation at WG-AEI December/January Meeting at JRC Ispra (Italy) or Eurostat