Item Open High Low Close % Cng OI Comments DAILY MARKET LEVEL

Transcription

1 4-Nov-15

2 Item Open High Low Close % Cng OI Comments Spices Pepper Turmeric Jeera Coriander Cardamom Sugar m Cereals Wheat Maize Barley Agro Market Most of the spices counter on the NCDEX yesterday ended with gains. Turmeric prices ended with more than two percent gains followed by gains in jeera prices whereas dhaniya prices ended with more than one and half percent losses. Turmeric prices gained on concerns over production due to erratic rainfall during monsoon. Jeera prices gained due to pickup in demand from the stockists and traders at the spot market. Others Chana Kapas Cotton Mentha Oil Soya Bean Ref.soya oil Cpo Rmseed Castorseed DAILY MARKET LEVEL COMMODITIES CARDAMOM WHEAT MENTHA OIL CHANA TURMERIC JEERA SOYABEAN R.SOYA OIL CLOSE RESISTANCE P. POINT SUPPORT OI OI (%) SPOT MARKETS UPDATE CORIANDER SUGAR SOYABEAN CHANA TURMERIC JEERA R.SOYA OIL WHEAT RM SEED COTTON

3 SOYABEAN Soyabean trading range for the day is Soybean prices gained due to lesser than expected arrivals from the new season crop and on concern over production in Madhya Pradesh. However, weak export demand for soymeals and better global weather outlook, capped some gains. NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks gained by 142 tonnes to tonnes. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean remains unchanged at 0 rupee to 3700 rupee per 100 kgs. BUY SOYABEAN DEC ON 3920 SL 3850 TGT NCDEX Soyabean settled up by 3.36% at 3997 due to lesser than expected arrivals from the new season crop and on concern over production in Madhya Pradesh. However, weak export demand for soymeals and better global weather outlook, capped some gains. The Soybean Processors Association of India said in its second advance estimates reported that India's total soybean production in 2015 is estimated to fall by 16.09% due to scanty monsoon. Total 2015 soybean production is estimated to be 7.3 million tons compared to 8.7 million tons a year ago, SOPA said. Soybean yield in 2015 is estimated to fell by 16.18% to 667,000 kilograms per hectare compared to 790,000 kilograms per hectare in previous year while sowing area as per government estimates stood at 5.9 million hectare compared to 5.5 million hectare a year ago. SOPA forecasted 3.4 million ton of soybean output in Madhya Pradesh, the biggest bean producer states in India, compared to 4.9 million tons a year ago. In the US soybean crop progress report, as on 01 November, the soybean harvested is reported by 92% which is up from 5 year average of 88% and up from 81% during the corresponding period last year. The harvesting pace slowed due to rains in the US Mid West. The international soybean benchmark, CBOT, is under pressure on improved bean supplies. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean remains unchanged at 0 rupee to 3700 rupee per 100 kgs.technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.16% to settled at 82540, now Soyabean is getting support at 3888 and below same could see a test of 3780 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4060, a move above could see prices testing RM Seed Rmseed trading range for the day is Mustard seed ended with gains on buying at lower level tracking firmness in soyabean prices and on supply worries. USDA reported global rapeseed production forecast to decline 3.5 million tons in 2015/16 as a slight decrease in area reduces total output to 68.1 million tons. NCDEX accredited warehouses mustard seed stocks dropped by 9816 tonnes to tonnes. In the Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the price dropped rupee to rupees per 100kgs. BUY RMSEED 4880 SL 4850 SL NCDEX Mustard Seed settled up by 1.88% at 4938 on buying at lower level tracking firmness in soyabean prices and on supply worries. USDA reported global rapeseed production forecast to decline 3.5 million tons in 2015/16 as a slight decrease in area reduces total output to 68.1 million tons. Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that from the beginning of Oct till today Rajasthan has not received any rainfall which is likely to affect rabi sowing of rm seed. Rapeseed meal exports from India in September month slipped 8.16% on year to 60,211 tons in August on weak demand from South Korea, Iran and Thailand, data released from Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) showed. As per Rajasthan state agriculture department data, the sowing till date is pegged at 4.72 lakh hectares, less by 47 per cent compared to last year sowing of 8.91 lakh hectares. The shipment of rapeseed meal exports increased m-o-m to 60,211 tonnes in Sep compared to 49,788 tonnes in Aug. According to MOPA, the production of mustard for has been lowered to 49 lt, which was earlier forecasted at 57.4 lt. At Kota market sources reported arrivals at 1500 Bags, lower by 500 Bags as compared to previous day. At Jaipur market total arrivals are at Bags, higher by 5000 Bags as compared to previous day. In the Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the price dropped rupee to rupees per 100kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2% to settled at while prices up 91 rupee, now Rmseed is getting support at 4863 and below same could see a test of 4787 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4980, a move above could see prices testing 5021.

4 MENTHA OIL Menthaoil trading range for the day is Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at per 1kg. Spot prices is up by Rs.0.60/-. Mentha oil prices settled flat triggered by ample stocks position on higher supplies from major producing belts in Uttar Pradesh. However, expectations of pickup in demand as winter season demand starts on the export and domestic front, capped some losses. Global demand too is expected to rise at these lower levels in coming weeks. BUY MENTHA OIL 926 SL 918 TGT MCX Mentha oil settled flat triggered by ample stocks position on higher supplies from major producing belts in Uttar Pradesh. However, expectations of pickup in demand as winter season demand starts on the export and domestic front, capped some losses. With cooler winters anticipated for many parts of India this year, the demand may soon start picking up from the pharmaceutical sector. Global demand too is expected to rise at these lower levels in coming weeks. At Barabanki market arrivals were reported at 200 Drums(1-drum-180kg), steady as against previous day s arrival. At Chandausi market sources reported arrivals at 25 Drums(1-drum-180kg), up by 10 Drums(1-drum-180kg) as compared to previous day. At Rampur market estimated market supply was at 5 Drums(1-drum=180kg), lower by 2 Drums(1-drum=180kg) as compared to previous day. At Bareilly market sources reported arrivals at 3 Drums(1-drum-180kg), steady as against previous day s arrival. Mentha oil production in India is likely to decline by 20% due to lower plantings of the aromatic herb on falling prices in the last two years. In fact, huge carryover stocks from the previous year coupled with huge capacity built up of synthetic mint, a substitute of mentha oil, also discouraged farmers to bring less area under mentha plant this year. Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at per 1kg. Spot prices is up by Rs.0.60/-.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.34% to settled at 10863, now Menthaoil is getting support at 928 and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 936.9, a move above could see prices testing 941. CHANA Chana trading range for the day is Chana prices gained as support seen after Maharashtra government has decided to lift the storage limit it had imposed on imported pulses. Prices also seen supported due to pick-up in demand in the spot market against tight supplies from the major producing belts. NCDEX accredited warehouses chana stocks dropped by 1200 tonnes to 9423 tonnes. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 28.9 rupee to end at 5100 rupee per 100 kgs. BUY CHANA 5020 SL 4980 TGT NCDEX Chana settled up by 1.74% at 5074 as support seen after Maharashtra government has decided to lift the storage limit it had imposed on imported pulses. Prices also seen supported due to pick-up in demand in the spot market against tight supplies from the major producing belts. However, pulses' sales by various states at reasonable rates at designated outlets, capped some gains. India's pulses output declined 11% to million ton due to weak monsoon and adverse weather according to fourth advance estimates released by agriculture ministry. The Agriculture Ministry has sought inter-ministerial comments on a proposal to create a buffer stock of 3.5 lakh tonnes of pulses in crop year. The sowing of chickpea has already begun in the southern States such as Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu and early trends suggest that acreage under this main pulses crop is set to make a significant gain this season. The ministry of agriculture forecast a lower output of tur this kharif at 2.61 million tonnes in the first advance estimate, issued in September as compared to 2.78 mt the previous year and 3.17 mt in Total output of pulses in the crop year (July June) fell sharply to 17.2 mt from mt in Around 50 motors of Chana have been reported at Delhi mandi against average daily arrivals of 45 motors. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 28.9 rupee to end at 5100 rupee per 100 kgs.technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.06% to settled at 55180, now Chana is getting support at 5018 and below same could see a test of 4962 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 5108, a move above could see prices testing 5142.

5 TURMERIC Turmeric trading range for the day is Turmeric prices gained on concerns over production due to erratic rainfall during monsoon. Moreover, reports of lower sowing and water stress conditions in major turmeric growing state may affect yields. As per latest sowing data from various state departments, turmeric sowing in Andhra Pradesh was on 15,753 hectares. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at rupees gained rupees. SELL TURMERIC DEC BELOW 8900 SL 9100 TGT NCDEX Turmeric settled up by 2.39% at 8994 on concerns over production due to erratic rainfall during monsoon. Moreover, reports of lower sowing and water stress conditions in major turmeric growing state may affect yields. This year monsoon rain that covered entire country in June provided an ideal moisture condition. However, the intensity of rainfall decreased during July and August resulting in moisture stress in Telangana, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Thus, turmeric acreage in these states declined. As per latest sowing data from various state departments, turmeric sowing in Andhra Pradesh was on 15,753 hectares, an increase over last year s acreage but well below the normal sowing area of over 19,000 hectares. In Telangana, turmeric has been planted in 40,823 hectares, about 17 per cent lower than the normal sowing area. Similarly in Maharashtra and Karnataka the acreage dropped by about per cent to 7,000 hectares and 12,000 hectares respectively. However, due to better irrigation facilities and sufficient rains, acreage in Tamil Nadu increased by per cent compared to last year to over 50,000 hectares. Just a week more for the Deepavali, the demand for the hybrid turmeric has increased. The local traders will dispatch the turmeric to North India for the Deepavali sale there and after that the traders will purchase little quantity to stock them. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at rupees gained rupees.technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 16.58% to settled at 9915 while prices up 210 rupee, now Turmeric is getting support at 8794 and below same could see a test of 8596 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 9106, a move above could see prices testing JEERA Jeera trading range for the day is Jeera prices gained due to pickup in demand from the stockists and traders at the spot market. Though, timely sowing on favorable weather at the major producing regions of Gujarat and Rajasthan, capped some gains. NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 114 tonnes to 6605 tonnes. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by rupees to end at rupee per 100 kg. SELL JEERA SL TGT NCDEX Jeera settled up by 0.26% at due to pickup in demand from the stockists and traders at the spot market. Though, timely sowing on favorable weather at the major producing regions of Gujarat and Rajasthan, capped some gains. The jeera export from India may surge in coming months as Jeera from Syria, Turkey may be lower, and now the preferred location would be India. According to govt data, exports for shows a decline trend compared to last year until September. As per fourth advance estimate of Gujarat State, production is expected at 1.58 lt in , which is 54.3 % lower, compared to last years production of 3.46 lakh tonnes. Jeera sowing recorded 2.64 lh, 42% less sowing compared to last year s 4.54 lh in Gujarat last year. There is concern over production due to untimely rainfall in March in Gujarat and Rajasthan. As per Government data, 2.41 lh of cumin crop is damaged in Rajasthan At Unjha market in Mehsana sources reported arrivals at 4000 quintals, down by 1000 quintals as compared to previous day. At Rajkot market in Rajkot (Guj.) arrivals were reported at 375 quintal, up by 55 quintal as compared to previous day. At Patan market total arrivals are at 92 quintals, up by 38 quintals from previous trading day. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by rupees to end at rupee per 100 kg.technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.67% to settled at 7290 while prices up 40 rupee, now Jeera is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 15765, a move above could see prices testing

6 CASTORSEED SUP-3 SUP-2 SUP-1 P.P. RES-1 RES-2 RES-3 OI (%) Castorseed settled up 1.45% at 4421, technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.76% to settled at while prices up 63 rupee, now Castorseed is getting support at 4363 and below same could see a test of 4306 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4457, a move above could see prices testing Castorseed trading range for the day is BUY CASTORSEED 3160 SL 3135 TGT NCDEX The spot prices of castorseed in Disa mandi gained 39.4 rupee to rupees per kg. MAIZERABI SUP-3 SUP-2 SUP-1 P.P. RES-1 RES-2 RES-3 OI (%) Maize trading range for the day is Maize prices ended with losses tracking weakness in spot demand and overseas prices. New crop arrivals with moisture level of around 14-16% are weighing on market sentiments. At Ahmedabad market in Gujarat total arrivals are at 6000 bags, down by 1000 bags as compared to previous day. In Nizamabad maize prices gained 2.3 rupee to end at 1470 rupees per 100 kg. SELL MAIZE 1495 SL 1510 TGT NCDEX Maize settled down by -0.13% at 1489 tracking weakness in spot demand and overseas prices. New crop arrivals with moisture level of around 14-16% are weighing on market sentiments. Market is expected to trade lower in the short run as quantity of crop arrivals to the market has increased. In Nizamabad, new crop with moisture level of 14% is ruling at Rs per quintal. Further dip from current level is unlikely despite arrival pressure from new crop. Despite new crop arrival pressure maize cash market is likely to trade steady ahead as more dip is unlikely due to fresh demand of feed makers. Erratic monsoon this year would hit corn production despite higher sowing reported across growing regions in India. Corn has been sown on 7.59 million hectares compared with 7.46 million hectares last year, according to the data from Department of Agriculture & Cooperation. Corn production is expected to be around 20 million tonnes, lowest in last five years due to irregular rainfall across growing regions of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. At Nizamabad market in Andhra Pradesh sources reported arrivals at 2000 Qtl, steady as against previous day s arrival. At Ahmedabad market in Gujarat total arrivals are at 6000 bags, down by 1000 bags as compared to previous day. At Koppal market estimated market supply was at Bags, unchanged as compared to previous day s arrival. In Nizamabad maize prices gained 2.3 rupee to end at 1470 rupees per 100 kg.technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.06% to settled at 15580, now Maize is getting support at 1478 and below same could see a test of 1468 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1495, a move above could see prices testing 1502.

7 MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE OPEN INT MCX CARDAMOM CHANGE IN RS. CHANGE IN % OTHER COMMODITY ITEMS TRADING LEVEL Dec Weak Resistance 778 MONTH VOLUME OI (%) NCDEX REF.SOYA OIL Dec Positive Resistance 622 MONTH MCX CRUDE PALM OIL Nov Weak Nov 2015 Res-1 Res-2 Res-3 Resistance MONTH NCDEX BARLEY Dec Positive Resistance 1452 MONTH NCDEX RMSEED Dec Positive Resistance 4904 MONTH NCDEX SOYABEAN Dec Positive Resistance MONTH NCDEX WHEAT Dec Weak Resistance 1669 MONTH NCDEX SUGARM Dec Positive Resistance 2747 MONTH NCDEX REF.SOYA OIL JUNE

8 SPREAD UPDATE DAILY SPREAD IN MENTHA OIL - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN SOYABEAN - NCDEX MONTH RATE Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 MONTH RATE Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Spread between Menthaoil NOV & DEC contracts yesterday ended Spread between Soyabean DEC & JAN contracts yesterday ended at Rs.12.5, we have seen yesterday Menthaoil future had traded at Rs.51, we have seen yesterday Soyabean future had traded in in a positive zone and settled 0.06% up. a positive zone and settled 3.36% up. DAILY SPREAD IN CPO - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN CHANA - NCDEX MONTH RATE Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 MONTH RATE Dec 2015 Jan Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Spread between CPO NOV & DEC contracts yesterday ended at Spread between Chana DEC & JAN contracts yesterday ended at Rs.6, we have seen yesterday CPO future had traded in a Rs.-127, we have seen yesterday Chana future had traded in a negative zone and settled -1.09% down. positive zone and settled 1.74% up. DAILY SPREAD IN JEERA - NCDEX DAILY SPREAD IN TURMERIC - NCDEX MONTH RATE Dec 2015 Jan MONTH RATE Dec 2015 Apr 2016 May 2016 Dec Dec Jan Apr May Spread between Jeera DEC & JAN contracts yesterday ended at Spread between Turmeric DEC & APR contracts yesterday ended Rs.235, we have seen yesterday Jeera future had traded in a at Rs.1094, we have seen yesterday Turmeric future had traded positive zone and settled 0.26% up. in a positive zone and settled 2.39% up. DAILY SPREAD IN CARDAMOM - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN REF.SOYA - NCDEX MONTH RATE Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 MONTH RATE Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Spread between Cardamom DEC & JAN contracts yesterday Spread between Ref.Soyaoil DEC & JAN contracts yesterday ended at Rs.26.7, we have seen yesterday Cardamom future had ended at Rs.-7.25, we have seen yesterday Ref.Soyaoil future traded in a negative zone and settled -0.13% down. had traded in a positive zone and settled 0.86% up.

9 NEWS YOU CAN USE The government said prices of pulses continued to show a declining trend both in the wholesale and retail markets, with more States selling them at cheaper rates. There has been a decline of more than Rs. 2,400 per quintal in the wholesale market in the prices of tur dal and the same is reflected in retail prices also, an official release said, adding that so far, under anti-hoarding operations, 10,903 raids had been conducted and 1,24,209 million tonnes of pulses had been seized across the States. It said more States, including Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra, held meetings with wholesalers to make pulses available in the retail market at reasonable prices. Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh are also distributing pulses at subsidised rates through the public distribution system, as are Gujarat, Jharkhand, Delhi, Chhattisgarh and Uttarakhand, the release added. The Agriculture Ministry has moved a proposal to create a buffer stock of 3.5 lakh tonnes of lentils during the current crop year through domestic purchase or imports to prevent a further price rise in pulses. With retail prices skyrocketing to about Rs. 200 per kg, the Centre had last month announced that it will create a buffer stock of lentils and the same will be offloaded in the market should prices firm up. The Agriculture Ministry has sought inter-ministerial comments on a proposal to create a buffer stock of 3.5 lakh tonnes of pulses in crop year, sources said. Out of the proposed 3.5 lakh tonnes, about 1.5 lakh tonnes of tur and urad will be procured in the ongoing kharif marketing season and the rest 2 lakh tonnes of chana and masoor will be bought in the rabi marketing season. These pulses will be purchased locally or through imports using the Rs. 500-crore Price Stabilisation Fund and a scheme that supports MSP operations. Pulses will be procured both at the minimum support price as well as market rates. The state-owned Food Corporation of India (FCI), Small Farmers Agriculture-Business Consortium (SFAC) and Nafed will be engaged in the pulses procurement, they added. In the ongoing kharif marketing season, which started last month, the ministry has proposed that FCI will procure 1 lakh tonnes of tur and urad while Nafed and SFAC will buy 40,000 tonnes and 10,000 tonnes, respectively. In the rabi marketing season starting in March next year, Nafed will buy 1 lakh tonnes of pulses while FCI and SFAC will go for 90,000 tonnes and 10,000 tonnes, respectively.

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